Delphi method: Difference between revisions

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Applications: for clarity etc, group health-related uses (using existing subheadings) under new subheading === Use in health settings ===
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One successful example of a (partially) web-based policy Delphi is the five-round Delphi exercise (with 1,454 contributions) for the creation of the [[eLAC Action Plans]] in Latin America. It is believed to be the most extensive online participatory policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the developing world at this time.<ref name="HilbertMilesOthmer2009"/> In addition to the specific policy guidance provided, the authors list the following lessons learned include "(1) the potential of Policy Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decision-making, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of embedding foresight exercises into established mechanisms of representative democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; (4) the potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing countries; and (5) the resource-efficiency stemming from the scale of international foresight exercises, and therefore its adequacy for resource-scarce regions."<ref name="HilbertMilesOthmer2009"/>
 
=== Use in public health settings ===
The Delphi technique is widely used to help reach expert consensus in health-related settings.<ref name="Taylor2020"/> For example, it is frequently employed in the development of [[medical guideline]]s and [[Protocol (science)|protocol]]s.<ref name="Taylor2020">{{cite journal |vauthors=Taylor E |title=We Agree, Don't We? The Delphi Method for Health Environments Research |journal=HERD |volume=13 |issue=1 |pages=11–23 |date=2020 |pmid=31887097 |doi=10.1177/1937586719887709 |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1937586719887709}}</ref>
The Delphi technique is widely used to help reach expert consensus in health-related settings.<ref name="Taylor2020"/> For example, it is frequently employed in the development of [[medical guideline]]s and [[Protocol (science)|protocol]]s.<ref name="Taylor2020">{{cite journal |vauthors=Taylor E |title=We Agree, Don't We? The Delphi Method for Health Environments Research |journal=HERD |volume=13 |issue=1 |pages=11–23 |date=2020 |pmid=31887097 |doi=10.1177/1937586719887709 |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1937586719887709}}</ref> Some examples of its application in [[public health]] contexts include non-alcoholic fatty liver disease,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Lazarus JV, Mark HE, Anstee QM, Arab JP, Batterham RL, Castera L, Cortez-Pinto H, Crespo J, Cusi K, Dirac MA, Francque S, George J, Hagström H, Huang TT, Ismail MH, Kautz A, Sarin SK, Loomba R, Miller V, Newsome PN, Ninburg M, Ocama P, Ratziu V, Rinella M, Romero D, Romero-Gómez M, Schattenberg JM, Tsochatzis EA, Valenti L, Wong VW, Yilmaz Y, Younossi ZM, Zelber-Sagi S | display-authors = 6 | title = Advancing the global public health agenda for NAFLD: a consensus statement | journal = Nature Reviews. Gastroenterology & Hepatology | volume = 19 | issue = 1 | pages = 60–78 | date = January 2022 | pmid = 34707258 | doi = 10.1038/s41575-021-00523-4 | s2cid = 239891445 | doi-access = free }}</ref> iodine deficiency disorders,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Schaffner M, Rochau U, Stojkov I, Qerimi Rushaj V, Völzke H, Marckmann G, Lazarus JH, Oberaigner W, Siebert U | display-authors = 6 | title = Barriers Against Prevention Programs for Iodine Deficiency Disorders in Europe: A Delphi Study | journal = Thyroid | volume = 31 | issue = 4 | pages = 649–657 | date = April 2021 | pmid = 32912084 | doi = 10.1089/thy.2020.0065 | s2cid = 221622474 }}</ref> building responsive health systems for communities affected by migration,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Pottie K, Hui C, Rahman P, Ingleby D, Akl EA, Russell G, Ling L, Wickramage K, Mosca D, Brindis CD | display-authors = 6 | title = Building Responsive Health Systems to Help Communities Affected by Migration: An International Delphi Consensus | journal = International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health | volume = 14 | issue = 2 | pages = 144 | date = February 2017 | pmid = 28165380 | pmc = 5334698 | doi = 10.3390/ijerph14020144 | doi-access = free }}</ref> the role of health systems in advancing well-being for those living with HIV,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Lazarus JV, Safreed-Harmon K, Kamarulzaman A, Anderson J, Leite RB, Behrens G, Bekker LG, Bhagani S, Brown D, Brown G, Buchbinder S, Caceres C, Cahn PE, Carrieri P, Caswell G, Cooke GS, Monforte AD, Dedes N, Del Amo J, Elliott R, El-Sadr WM, Fuster-Ruiz de Apodaca MJ, Guaraldi G, Hallett T, Harding R, Hellard M, Jaffar S, Kall M, Klein M, Lewin SR, Mayer K, Pérez-Molina JA, Moraa D, Naniche D, Nash D, Noori T, Pozniak A, Rajasuriar R, Reiss P, Rizk N, Rockstroh J, Romero D, Sabin C, Serwadda D, Waters L | display-authors = 6 | title = Consensus statement on the role of health systems in advancing the long-term well-being of people living with HIV | journal = Nature Communications | volume = 12 | issue = 1 | pages = 4450 | date = July 2021 | pmid = 34272399 | pmc = 8285468 | doi = 10.1038/s41467-021-24673-w }}</ref> and in creating a 2022 paper on recommendations to end the [[COVID-19 pandemic]].<ref name=":0">{{cite journal | vauthors = Lazarus JV, Romero D, Kopka CJ, Karim SA, Abu-Raddad LJ, Almeida G, Baptista-Leite R, Barocas JA, Barreto ML, Bar-Yam Y, Bassat Q, Batista C, Bazilian M, Chiou ST, Del Rio C, Dore GJ, Gao GF, Gostin LO, Hellard M, Jimenez JL, Kang G, Lee N, Matičič M, McKee M, Nsanzimana S, Oliu-Barton M, Pradelski B, Pyzik O, Rabin K, Raina S, Rashid SF, Rathe M, Saenz R, Singh S, Trock-Hempler M, Villapol S, Yap P, Binagwaho A, Kamarulzaman A, El-Mohandes A | display-authors = 6 | title = A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat | journal = Nature | volume = 611 | issue = 7935 | pages = 332–345 | date = November 2022 | pmid = 36329272 | pmc = 9646517 | doi = 10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2 }}</ref>
 
==== Use in reportingpublic health guidelines====
The Delphi technique is widely used to help reach expert consensus in health-related settings.<ref name="Taylor2020"/> For example, it is frequently employed in the development of [[medical guideline]]s and [[Protocol (science)|protocol]]s.<ref name="Taylor2020">{{cite journal |vauthors=Taylor E |title=We Agree, Don't We? The Delphi Method for Health Environments Research |journal=HERD |volume=13 |issue=1 |pages=11–23 |date=2020 |pmid=31887097 |doi=10.1177/1937586719887709 |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1937586719887709}}</ref> Some examples of its application in [[public health]] contexts include non-alcoholic fatty liver disease,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Lazarus JV, Mark HE, Anstee QM, Arab JP, Batterham RL, Castera L, Cortez-Pinto H, Crespo J, Cusi K, Dirac MA, Francque S, George J, Hagström H, Huang TT, Ismail MH, Kautz A, Sarin SK, Loomba R, Miller V, Newsome PN, Ninburg M, Ocama P, Ratziu V, Rinella M, Romero D, Romero-Gómez M, Schattenberg JM, Tsochatzis EA, Valenti L, Wong VW, Yilmaz Y, Younossi ZM, Zelber-Sagi S | display-authors = 6 | title = Advancing the global public health agenda for NAFLD: a consensus statement | journal = Nature Reviews. Gastroenterology & Hepatology | volume = 19 | issue = 1 | pages = 60–78 | date = January 2022 | pmid = 34707258 | doi = 10.1038/s41575-021-00523-4 | s2cid = 239891445 | doi-access = free }}</ref> iodine deficiency disorders,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Schaffner M, Rochau U, Stojkov I, Qerimi Rushaj V, Völzke H, Marckmann G, Lazarus JH, Oberaigner W, Siebert U | display-authors = 6 | title = Barriers Against Prevention Programs for Iodine Deficiency Disorders in Europe: A Delphi Study | journal = Thyroid | volume = 31 | issue = 4 | pages = 649–657 | date = April 2021 | pmid = 32912084 | doi = 10.1089/thy.2020.0065 | s2cid = 221622474 }}</ref> building responsive health systems for communities affected by migration,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Pottie K, Hui C, Rahman P, Ingleby D, Akl EA, Russell G, Ling L, Wickramage K, Mosca D, Brindis CD | display-authors = 6 | title = Building Responsive Health Systems to Help Communities Affected by Migration: An International Delphi Consensus | journal = International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health | volume = 14 | issue = 2 | pages = 144 | date = February 2017 | pmid = 28165380 | pmc = 5334698 | doi = 10.3390/ijerph14020144 | doi-access = free }}</ref> the role of health systems in advancing well-being for those living with HIV,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Lazarus JV, Safreed-Harmon K, Kamarulzaman A, Anderson J, Leite RB, Behrens G, Bekker LG, Bhagani S, Brown D, Brown G, Buchbinder S, Caceres C, Cahn PE, Carrieri P, Caswell G, Cooke GS, Monforte AD, Dedes N, Del Amo J, Elliott R, El-Sadr WM, Fuster-Ruiz de Apodaca MJ, Guaraldi G, Hallett T, Harding R, Hellard M, Jaffar S, Kall M, Klein M, Lewin SR, Mayer K, Pérez-Molina JA, Moraa D, Naniche D, Nash D, Noori T, Pozniak A, Rajasuriar R, Reiss P, Rizk N, Rockstroh J, Romero D, Sabin C, Serwadda D, Waters L | display-authors = 6 | title = Consensus statement on the role of health systems in advancing the long-term well-being of people living with HIV | journal = Nature Communications | volume = 12 | issue = 1 | pages = 4450 | date = July 2021 | pmid = 34272399 | pmc = 8285468 | doi = 10.1038/s41467-021-24673-w }}</ref> and in creating a 2022 paper on recommendations to end the [[COVID-19 pandemic]].<ref name=":0">{{cite journal | vauthors = Lazarus JV, Romero D, Kopka CJ, Karim SA, Abu-Raddad LJ, Almeida G, Baptista-Leite R, Barocas JA, Barreto ML, Bar-Yam Y, Bassat Q, Batista C, Bazilian M, Chiou ST, Del Rio C, Dore GJ, Gao GF, Gostin LO, Hellard M, Jimenez JL, Kang G, Lee N, Matičič M, McKee M, Nsanzimana S, Oliu-Barton M, Pradelski B, Pyzik O, Rabin K, Raina S, Rashid SF, Rathe M, Saenz R, Singh S, Trock-Hempler M, Villapol S, Yap P, Binagwaho A, Kamarulzaman A, El-Mohandes A | display-authors = 6 | title = A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat | journal = Nature | volume = 611 | issue = 7935 | pages = 332–345 | date = November 2022 | pmid = 36329272 | pmc = 9646517 | doi = 10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2 }}</ref>
 
==== Use in reporting guidelines====
The guidance for developing reporting guidelines in 2010<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Moher D, Schulz KF, Simera I, Altman DG | title = Guidance for developers of health research reporting guidelines | journal = PLOS Medicine | volume = 7 | issue = 2 | pages = e1000217 | date = February 2010 | pmid = 20169112 | pmc = 2821895 | doi = 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000217 }}</ref> recommended using the Delphi method for developing reporting guidelines. However, less than 30% of the reporting guidelines were developed with the Delphi method according to the systematic reviews in 2015<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Wang X, Chen Y, Yang N, Deng W, Wang Q, Li N, Yao L, Wei D, Chen G, Yang K | display-authors = 6 | title = Methodology and reporting quality of reporting guidelines: systematic review | journal = BMC Medical Research Methodology | volume = 15 | issue = 74 | pages = 74 | date = September 2015 | pmid = 26395179 | pmc = 4579604 | doi = 10.1186/s12874-015-0069-z }}</ref> and 2020.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Banno M, Tsujimoto Y, Kataoka Y | title = The majority of reporting guidelines are not developed with the Delphi method: a systematic review of reporting guidelines | journal = Journal of Clinical Epidemiology | volume = 124 | pages = 50–57 | date = August 2020 | pmid = 32302679 | doi = 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.04.010 | s2cid = 215809096 }}</ref> The Delphi approach has been successfully employed to improve agreement between experts in iterative rating exercises on clinical test results using inter-rater kappa statistics as an outcome measure.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Petzold A, Biousse V, Bursztyn L, Costello F, Crum A, Digre K, Fraser C, Fraser JA, Katz B, Jurkute N, Newman N, Lautrup-Battistini J, Lawlor M, Liskova P, Lorenz B, Malmqvist L, Peragallo J, Sibony P, Subramanian P, Rejdak R, Nowomiejska K, Touitou V, Warner J, Wegener M, Wong S, Yu-Wai-Man P, Hamann S | display-authors = 6 | title = Multirater Validation of Peripapillary Hyperreflective Ovoid Mass-like Structures (PHOMS) | journal = Neuro-Ophthalmology | volume = 44 | issue = 6 | pages = 413–414 | date = 16 July 2020 | pmid = 33408429 | pmc = 7746256 | doi = 10.1080/01658107.2020.1760891 }}</ref>