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Line 78: == Uncertainty of prediction == [[File:BinomialConfBelts.jpg\|thumb\|<small>Uncertainty analysis with confidence belts using the binomial distribution </small><ref>Frequency predictions and their binomial confidence limits. In: International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, Special Technical Session: Economic Aspects of Flood Control and non-Structural Measures, Dubrovnik, ~~Yougoslavia~~Yugoslavia, 1988. [http://www.waterlog.info/pdf/binomial.pdf On line]</ref>]] Predictions of occurrence based on fitted probability distributions are subject to [[uncertainty]], which arises from the following conditions:

Probability distribution fitting: Difference between revisions