Delphi method: Difference between revisions

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The '''Delphi method''' is a systematic interactive [[forecasting]] method based on independent inputs of selected experts.

In [[1944]], [[Henry H. Arnold|General Arnold]] ordered the creation of the report for the [[U.S. Air Force]] on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military. Two years later, [[Douglas Aircraft]] company started Project [[RAND]] to study "the broad subject of inter-continental warfare other than surface".

Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as [[theoretical approach]], [[quantitative modelsmodel]]s or [[trend extrapolation]] in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed in RAND Corporation during the 1950-1960s by [[Olaf Helmer]] and [[Norman Dalkey]].

The name "Delphi" obviously comes from the [[Oracle of Delphi]]. The authors of the method were not happy with this name, because it implies "something oracular, something smacking a little of the occult", whereas in reality precisely the opposite is involved. The Delphi method recognizes the value of expert opinion, experience and intuition and allows using the limited information available in these forms, when full scientific knowledge is lacking.

Delphi method uses a panel of carefully selected experts who answer a series of questionnaires. Questions are usually formulated as hypotheses, and experts state the time when they think these hypotheses will be fulfilled. Each round of questioning is followed with the feedback on the preceding round of replies, usually presented anonymously. Thus the experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. After several rounds the process is complete and the [[median|median scoresscore]]s determine the final answers. From that the roadmap or timetables of future developments can be derived.

The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus on the issues at hand and separate Delphi from other methodologies:

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=== Anonymity of the participants ===

Usually all participants maintain anonymity. Their identity is not revealed even after the completion of the final report. This stops them from dominating others in the process using their authority or personality, frees them to some extent from their personal biases, minimizes the "[[bandwagon effect]]" or "[[halo effect]]", allows them to freely express their opinions, encourages open critique and admitting errors by revising earlier judgments.

== History ==