Talk:Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 10:46, 12 June 2006

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{{ArticleHistory

{{hurricane|class=Start|importance=Mid}}

|action1=GAN

|action1date=01:13, 31 March 2011

|action1link=Talk:Tropical cyclone forecast model/GA1

|action1result=listed

|action1oldid=421543345

|dykdate=23 February 2006

|dykentry=...that until the late [[1980s]], the most accurate '''[[tropical cyclone prediction model]]''' was purely [[statistics|statistical]]?

|currentstatus=GA

|topic=meteorology

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{{WikiProject banner shell|class=GA|

{{WikiProject Weather|importance=Mid|tropical-cyclones-project=yes}}

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== Expansion todo ==

Still need to finish adding model info from the 2005 Verification report and more details on each individual model. --[[User:AySz88|AySz88]][[User talk:AySz88|<fontspan colorstyle="color:#FF9966;">^</fontspan>]][[Special:Contributions/AySz88|<fontspan colorstyle="color:#FF6633;">-</fontspan>]][[User talk:AySz88|<fontspan colorstyle="color:#FF3300;">^</fontspan>]] 05:37, 23 May 2006 (UTC)

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|An entry from '''{{PAGENAME}}''' appeared on Wikipedia's [[Main Page]] in the '''[[:Template:Did you know|Did you know?]]''' column on [[22 February]], [[2006]].

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== ExpansionPossible todochanges ==

I think that it might be good to rename this [[tropical cyclone forecasting]] and then make it a spinoff from the [[tropical cyclone]] article. The current content could just be part of that larger article. Things that could then be included are: statistical predictions, as is done or the seasonal outlooks, these models, past forecast accuracy, the step by step process that goes into making a forecast, and other stuff. [[User:Miss Madeline|Miss Madeline]] | [[User talk:Miss Madeline|Talk to Madeline]] 22:54, 10 September 2006 (UTC)

:I like that idea. Then, you can talk about manual techniques as well. [[User:Thegreatdr|Thegreatdr]] 12:07, 16 March 2007 (UTC)

::...or on second thought, this article could be left as-is while another article concerning tropical cyclone forecasting is created. Chances are, we would need a subarticle on the track models anyhow. [[User:Thegreatdr|Thegreatdr]] 15:53, 10 April 2007 (UTC)

== Name change ==

I think this page should be "Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model" rather than with the word "prediction." I think it is important to note that meteorologists forecast the weather and do not predict the weather. It might seem like a minor point, but it is a rather significant difference. [[User:4.136.81.238|4.136.81.238]] 05:32, 6 July 2007 (UTC)

:I use [[Weather_prediction]] as an example, which redirects into [[Weather_forecasting]]. I know some of the models have "Prediction" in there name, but I am sure some wish that was not the case. (Although, most of the general public doesn't know the names of the models) I have changed instances relating to "prediction" to "forecasting" and if no one objects I'll change the name of this page and redirect the then old page to the new one, unless someone does it first. [[User:4.136.81.238|4.136.81.238]] 05:46, 6 July 2007 (UTC)

::Actually, I decided to just login and do it. NHC calls them forecast models: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml [[User:Wdwic Pictures|Wdwic Pictures]] 06:00, 6 July 2007 (UTC)

:::Move complete. [[User:Wdwic Pictures|Wdwic Pictures]] 07:08, 6 July 2007 (UTC)

==Added topic year headers==

''18-Aug-2008:'' I have added the headers "Topics from 2006" (etc.) as on other talk pages, to help keep the topics sorted by date, but fortunately this was a small talk-page, so I ''didn't'' need to move several topics into date order (other talk-pages have had topics scrambled across 6 years). -[[User:Wikid77|Wikid77]] ([[User talk:Wikid77|talk]]) 18:01, 18 August 2008 (UTC)

== Better report page needed ==

Editing Talk:Tropical cyclone forecast model

A couple of links to best computer models would help we, the public in coastal states, are intensely interested in current real-time data and detailed predictive information whenever a hurricane threatens our coast. Our encyclopedia is incomplete when it omits this salient information or how to find it.

See, e.g., this terrific link shows something like what we need:

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/06LSPAG.gif

This is also good:

http://www.hurricanealley.net/natl.html

This site was recommended as having good links, but couldn't get it to display -- maybe security?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/verify/index.html

We coastal dwellers need this wikipedia page to provide or link to real-time and predictive sites that provides a map representing the results of each computer model prediction of storm path of an active hurricane or tropical storm. It would be ideal if Clipper and all the global models were included, and as many as possible of the rest. The list in this article is excellent. If as many of these models could be included in a graph, it could be ideal.

It would help us greatly if each model could be represented on the map with a line graphic of a distinct highly visible color easily differentiated from the others.

It would help if the map could be followed by a key linking color of line graphic to model. The key could also indicate when each model was last run. The key could provide a thumbnail of each model's current result with a link to click through to a page for that model for more detail on current and recent results and the model itself.

The map and key should be followed by a discussion starting with all appropriate disclaimers.

Failing all that, a fallback would be a page giving links to each model, with the most accurate ones toward the top. <small>—Preceding [[Wikipedia:Signatures|unsigned]] comment added by [[Special:Contributions/68.166.203.170|68.166.203.170]] ([[User talk:68.166.203.170|talk]]) 14:19, 21 August 2008 (UTC)</small><!-- Template:UnsignedIP --> <!--Autosigned by SineBot-->

== Long overdue expansion - input needed ==

Improvements to [[numerical weather prediction]], [[Atmospheric model]], and [[History of numerical weather prediction]] have led to some recent expansion within this article. We're reaching an impasse, however. The list format currently making up much of its body is not going to pass muster when this article is GANed, which could be sooner than you think. How should we proceed? I've added a history section, but we could just as well interweave history in with each piece of guidance, which would reduce redundancy, which has already begun to creep into the article. I need input before going further forward here. [[User:Thegreatdr|Thegreatdr]] ([[User talk:Thegreatdr|talk]]) 04:28, 26 February 2011 (UTC)

:I've split the history section into statistical and dynamical model sections, which incorporate both history and information about the guidance. As each model is discussed, I'm removing models from the lists below. [[User:Thegreatdr|Thegreatdr]] ([[User talk:Thegreatdr|talk]]) 05:13, 26 February 2011 (UTC)

{{Talk:Tropical cyclone forecast model/GA1}}

Still need to finish adding model info from the 2005 Verification report and more details on each individual model. --[[User:AySz88|AySz88]][[User talk:AySz88|<font color="#FF9966">^</font>]][[Special:Contributions/AySz88|<font color="#FF6633">-</font>]][[User talk:AySz88|<font color="#FF3300">^</font>]] 05:37, 23 May 2006 (UTC)