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[[File:Monty open door.svg|thumb|In search of a new car, the player picks a door, say 1. The game host then opens one of the other doors, say 3, to reveal a goat and offers to let the player pick door 2 instead of door 1.]]
The '''Monty Hall problem''' is a brain teaser, in the form of a [[probability]] puzzle ([[#refKraussandWang2003|Gruber, Krauss and others]]), loosely based on the American television game show ''[[Let's Make a Deal]]'' and named after its original host, [[Monty Hall]]. The problem was originally posed in a letter by [[Steve Selvin]] to the ''[[The American Statistician|American Statistician]]'' in 1975 {{Harv|Selvin|1975a}}, {{Harv|Selvin|1975b}}. It became famous as a question from a reader's letter quoted in [[Marilyn vos Savant]]'s "Ask Marilyn" column in ''[[Parade (magazine)|Parade]]'' magazine in 1990 {{Harv|vos Savant|1990a}}:
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The behavior of the host is key to the 2/3 solution. Ambiguities in the "Parade" version do not explicitly define the protocol of the host. However Marilyn vos Savant's ({{Harvnb|vos Savant|1990a}}) solution printed alongside Whitaker's question implies and both {{Harvtxt|Selvin|1975a}} and {{Harvtxt|vos Savant|1991a}} explicitly define the role of the host as follows
# the host must always open a door that was not picked by the contestant ([[#refMueserandGranberg1999|Mueser and Granberg 1999]]),
# the host must always open a door to reveal a goat and never the car ([[#refAdams1990|Adams 1990]])
# the host must always offer the chance to switch between the originally chosen door and the remaining closed door
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===Solutions using conditional probability===
<!---===Criticism of the simple solutions=== Any missing stuff to be re-incorporated▼
As already remarked, most sources in the field of [[probability]], including many introductory probability textbooks, solve the problem by showing the [[conditional probabilities]] the car is behind door 1 and door 2 are 1/3 and 2/3 (not 1/2 and 1/2) given the contestant initially picks door 1 and the host opens door 3; various ways to derive and understand this result were given in the previous subsections.▼
Among these sources are several that explicitly criticize the popularly presented "simple" solutions, saying these solutions are "correct but ... shaky" ([[#refRosenthal2005a|Rosenthal 2005a]]), or do not "address the problem posed" ([[#refGillman1992|Gillman 1992]]), or are "incomplete" ([[#refLucasetal2009|Lucas et al. 2009]]), or are "unconvincing and misleading" ([[#refEisenhauer2001|Eisenhauer 2001]]) or are (most bluntly) "false" ([[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]]).▼
Some say that these solutions answer a slightly different question – one phrasing is "you have to announce ''before a door has been opened'' whether you plan to switch" ([[#refGillman1992|Gillman 1992]], emphasis in the original).▼
The simple solutions show in various ways that a contestant who is determined to switch will win the car with probability 2/3, and hence that switching is the winning strategy, if the player has to choose in advance between "always switching", and "always staying". However, the probability of winning by ''always'' switching is a logically distinct concept from the probability of winning by switching ''given the player has picked door 1 and the host has opened door 3''. As one source says, "the distinction between [these questions] seems to confound many" ([[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]]). This fact that these are different can be shown by varying the problem so that these two probabilities have different numeric values. For example, assume the contestant knows that Monty does not pick the second door randomly among all legal alternatives but instead, when given an opportunity to pick between two losing doors, Monty will open the one on the right. In this situation the following two questions have different answers:▼
# What is the probability of winning the car by ''always'' switching?▼
# What is the probability of winning the car ''given the player has picked door 1 and the host has opened door 3''?▼
The answer to the first question is 2/3, as is correctly shown by the "simple" solutions. But the answer to the second question is now different: the conditional probability the car is behind door 1 or door 2 given the host has opened door 3 (the door on the right) is 1/2. This is because Monty's preference for rightmost doors means he opens door 3 if the car is behind door 1 (which it is originally with probability 1/3) or if the car is behind door 2 (also originally with probability 1/3). For this variation, the two questions yield different answers. However as long as the initial probability the car is behind each door is 1/3, it is never to the contestant's disadvantage to switch, as the conditional probability of winning by switching is always at least 1/2. ([[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]])▼
There is disagreement in the literature regarding whether vos Savant's formulation of the problem, as presented in ''Parade'' magazine, is asking the first or second question, and whether this difference is significant ([[#refRosenhouse2009|Rosenhouse 2009]]). Behrends ([[#refBehrends2008|2008]]) concludes that "One must consider the matter with care to see that both analyses are correct"; which is not to say that they are the same. One analysis for one question, another analysis for the other question. Several discussants of the paper by ([[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]]), whose contributions were published alongside the original paper, strongly criticized the authors for altering vos Savant's wording and misinterpreting her intention ([[#refRosenhouse2009|Rosenhouse 2009]]). One discussant (William Bell) considered it a matter of taste whether or not one explicitly mentions that (under the standard conditions), ''which'' door is opened by the host is independent of whether or not one should want to switch.▼
Among the simple solutions, the "combined doors solution" comes closest to a conditional solution, as we saw in the discussion of approaches using the concept of odds and Bayes theorem. It is based on the deeply rooted intuition that ''revealing information that is already known does not affect probabilities''. But knowing the host can open one of the two unchosen doors to show a goat does not mean that opening a specific door would not affect the probability that the car is behind the initially chosen door. The point is, though we know in advance that the host will open a door and reveal a goat, we do not know ''which'' door he will open. If the host chooses uniformly at random between doors hiding a goat (as is the case in the standard interpretation) this probability indeed remains unchanged, but if the host can choose non-randomly between such doors then the specific door that the host opens reveals additional information. The host can always open a door revealing a goat ''and'' (in the standard interpretation of the problem) the probability that the car is behind the initially chosen door does not change, but it is ''not because'' of the former that the latter is true. Solutions based on the assertion that the host's actions cannot affect the probability that the car is behind the initially chosen appear persuasive, but the assertion is simply untrue unless each of the host's two choices are equally likely, if he has a choice ([[Monty Hall problem#refFalk1992|Falk 1992:207,213]]). The assertion therefore needs to be justified; without justification being given, the solution is at best incomplete. The answer can be correct but the reasoning used to justify it is defective.▼
Some of the confusion in the literature undoubtedly arises because the writers are using different concepts of probability, in particular, [[Bayesian probability|Bayesian]] versus [[frequentist probability]]. For the Bayesian, probability represents knowledge. For us and for the player, the car is initially equally likely to be behind each of the three doors because we know absolutely nothing about how the organizers of the show decided where to place it. For us and for the player, the host is equally likely to make either choice (when he has one) because we know absolutely nothing about how he makes his choice. These "equally likely" probability assignments are determined by symmetries in the problem. The same symmetry can be used to argue in advance that specific door numbers are irrelevant, as we saw [[Monty Hall problem#From simple to conditional by symmetry|above]].-->▼
The [[Monty Hall Problem#Simple Solutions|simple solutions]] above show that a player with a strategy of switching wins the car with overall probability 2/3 ([[#refGrinsteadandSnell2006|Grinstead and Snell 2006:137–138]] [[#refCarlton2005|Carlton 2005]]). In contrast most sources in the field of [[probability]] calculate the [[conditional probabilities]] that the car is behind door 1 and door 2 are 1/3 and 2/3 given the contestant initially picks door 1 and the host opens door 3 ({{Harvtxt|Selvin|1975b}}, [[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]], [[#refChun1991|Chun 1991]], [[#refGillman1992|Gillman 1992]], [[#refCarlton2005|Carlton 2005]], [[#refGrinsteadandSnell2006|Grinstead and Snell 2006:137–138]], [[#refLucasetal2009|Lucas et al. 2009]]). The solutions in this section consider just those cases in which the player picked door 1 and the host opened door 3.
<!--====Refining the simple solution====-->
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==Sources of confusion==
When first presented with the Monty Hall problem an overwhelming majority of people assume that each door has an equal probability and conclude that switching does not matter ([[#refMueserandGranberg1999|Mueser and Granberg, 1999]]). Out of 228 subjects in one study, only 13% chose to switch ([[#refGranbergandBrown1995|Granberg and Brown, 1995:713]]). In her book ''The Power of Logical Thinking'', {{Harvtxt|vos Savant|1996|p=15}} quotes [[Cognitive psychology|cognitive psychologist]] [[Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini]] as saying "... no other statistical puzzle comes so close to fooling all the people all the time" and "that even Nobel physicists systematically give the wrong answer, and that they ''insist'' on it, and they are ready to berate in print those who propose the right answer."
The problem continues to attract the attention of cognitive psychologists. The typical behavior of the majority, i.e., not switching, may be explained by phenomena known in the psychological literature as: 1) the [[endowment effect]] ([[#refKahnemanetal1991|Kahneman et al., 1991]]); people tend to overvalue the winning probability of the already chosen – already "owned" – door; 2) the [[status quo bias]] ([[#refSamuelsonandZeckhauser1988|Samuelson and Zeckhauser, 1988]]); people prefer to stick with the choice of door they have already made; 3) the errors of omission vs. errors of commission effect ([[#refGilovichetal1995|Gilovich et al., 1995]]); all else considered equal, people prefer that any errors that they are responsible for to have occurred through 'omission' of taking action rather than through having taken an explicit action that later becomes known to have been erroneous. Experimental evidence confirms that these are plausible explanations which do not depend on probability intuition ([[#refKaivantoetal2014|Kaivanto et al., 2014]]; [[#refMoroneandFiore2007|Morone and Fiore, 2007]]).
▲<!---===Criticism of the simple solutions===
▲As already remarked, most sources in the field of [[probability]], including many introductory probability textbooks, solve the problem by showing the [[conditional probabilities]] the car is behind door 1 and door 2 are 1/3 and 2/3 (not 1/2 and 1/2) given the contestant initially picks door 1 and the host opens door 3; various ways to derive and understand this result were given in the previous subsections.
▲Among these sources are several that explicitly criticize the popularly presented "simple" solutions, saying these solutions are "correct but ... shaky" ([[#refRosenthal2005a|Rosenthal 2005a]]), or do not "address the problem posed" ([[#refGillman1992|Gillman 1992]]), or are "incomplete" ([[#refLucasetal2009|Lucas et al. 2009]]), or are "unconvincing and misleading" ([[#refEisenhauer2001|Eisenhauer 2001]]) or are (most bluntly) "false" ([[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]]).
▲Some say that these solutions answer a slightly different question – one phrasing is "you have to announce ''before a door has been opened'' whether you plan to switch" ([[#refGillman1992|Gillman 1992]], emphasis in the original).
▲The simple solutions show in various ways that a contestant who is determined to switch will win the car with probability 2/3, and hence that switching is the winning strategy, if the player has to choose in advance between "always switching", and "always staying". However, the probability of winning by ''always'' switching is a logically distinct concept from the probability of winning by switching ''given the player has picked door 1 and the host has opened door 3''. As one source says, "the distinction between [these questions] seems to confound many" ([[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]]). This fact that these are different can be shown by varying the problem so that these two probabilities have different numeric values. For example, assume the contestant knows that Monty does not pick the second door randomly among all legal alternatives but instead, when given an opportunity to pick between two losing doors, Monty will open the one on the right. In this situation the following two questions have different answers:
▲# What is the probability of winning the car by ''always'' switching?
▲# What is the probability of winning the car ''given the player has picked door 1 and the host has opened door 3''?
▲The answer to the first question is 2/3, as is correctly shown by the "simple" solutions. But the answer to the second question is now different: the conditional probability the car is behind door 1 or door 2 given the host has opened door 3 (the door on the right) is 1/2. This is because Monty's preference for rightmost doors means he opens door 3 if the car is behind door 1 (which it is originally with probability 1/3) or if the car is behind door 2 (also originally with probability 1/3). For this variation, the two questions yield different answers. However as long as the initial probability the car is behind each door is 1/3, it is never to the contestant's disadvantage to switch, as the conditional probability of winning by switching is always at least 1/2. ([[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]])
▲There is disagreement in the literature regarding whether vos Savant's formulation of the problem, as presented in ''Parade'' magazine, is asking the first or second question, and whether this difference is significant ([[#refRosenhouse2009|Rosenhouse 2009]]). Behrends ([[#refBehrends2008|2008]]) concludes that "One must consider the matter with care to see that both analyses are correct"; which is not to say that they are the same. One analysis for one question, another analysis for the other question. Several discussants of the paper by ([[#refMorganetal1991|Morgan et al. 1991]]), whose contributions were published alongside the original paper, strongly criticized the authors for altering vos Savant's wording and misinterpreting her intention ([[#refRosenhouse2009|Rosenhouse 2009]]). One discussant (William Bell) considered it a matter of taste whether or not one explicitly mentions that (under the standard conditions), ''which'' door is opened by the host is independent of whether or not one should want to switch.
▲Among the simple solutions, the "combined doors solution" comes closest to a conditional solution, as we saw in the discussion of approaches using the concept of odds and Bayes theorem. It is based on the deeply rooted intuition that ''revealing information that is already known does not affect probabilities''. But knowing the host can open one of the two unchosen doors to show a goat does not mean that opening a specific door would not affect the probability that the car is behind the initially chosen door. The point is, though we know in advance that the host will open a door and reveal a goat, we do not know ''which'' door he will open. If the host chooses uniformly at random between doors hiding a goat (as is the case in the standard interpretation) this probability indeed remains unchanged, but if the host can choose non-randomly between such doors then the specific door that the host opens reveals additional information. The host can always open a door revealing a goat ''and'' (in the standard interpretation of the problem) the probability that the car is behind the initially chosen door does not change, but it is ''not because'' of the former that the latter is true. Solutions based on the assertion that the host's actions cannot affect the probability that the car is behind the initially chosen appear persuasive, but the assertion is simply untrue unless each of the host's two choices are equally likely, if he has a choice ([[Monty Hall problem#refFalk1992|Falk 1992:207,213]]). The assertion therefore needs to be justified; without justification being given, the solution is at best incomplete. The answer can be correct but the reasoning used to justify it is defective.
▲Some of the confusion in the literature undoubtedly arises because the writers are using different concepts of probability, in particular, [[Bayesian probability|Bayesian]] versus [[frequentist probability]]. For the Bayesian, probability represents knowledge. For us and for the player, the car is initially equally likely to be behind each of the three doors because we know absolutely nothing about how the organizers of the show decided where to place it. For us and for the player, the host is equally likely to make either choice (when he has one) because we know absolutely nothing about how he makes his choice. These "equally likely" probability assignments are determined by symmetries in the problem. The same symmetry can be used to argue in advance that specific door numbers are irrelevant, as we saw [[Monty Hall problem#From simple to conditional by symmetry|above]].-->
==Variants==
The table below shows a variety of possible host behaviors, other than those specified in the standard assumptions, and the resulting probability of success by switching.
▲===Other host behaviors===
Morgan et al. ([[#refMorganetal1991|1991]]) and Gillman ([[#refGillman1992|1992]]) both show a more general solution where the car is (uniformly) randomly placed but the host is not constrained to pick uniformly randomly if the player has initially selected the car, which is how they both interpret the statement of the problem in ''Parade'' despite the author's disclaimers. Both changed the wording of the ''Parade'' version to emphasize that point when they restated the problem. They consider a scenario where the host chooses between revealing two goats with a preference expressed as a probability ''q'', having a value between 0 and 1. If the host picks randomly ''q'' would be 1/2 and switching wins with probability 2/3 regardless of which door the host opens. If the player picks door 1 and the host's preference for door 3 is ''q'', then the probability the host opens door 3 and the car is behind door 2 is 1/3 while the probability the host opens door 3 and the car is behind door 1 is (1/3)''q''. These are the only cases where the host opens door 3, so the conditional probability of winning by switching ''given the host opens door 3'' is (1/3)/(1/3 + (1/3)''q'') which simplifies to 1/(1+''q''). Since ''q'' can vary between 0 and 1 this conditional probability can vary between 1/2 and 1. This means even without constraining the host to pick randomly if the player initially selects the car, the player is never worse off switching. However neither source suggests the player knows what the value of ''q'' is so the player cannot attribute a probability other than the 2/3 that vos Savant assumed was implicit.▼
<div style="text-align:center;">
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|}
</div>
▲Morgan et al. ([[#refMorganetal1991|1991]]) and Gillman ([[#refGillman1992|1992]]) both show a
===''N''-doors===
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* In 2009 a book-length discussion of the problem, its history, methods of solution, and variations, was published by Oxford University Press ([[#refRosenhouse2009|Rosenhouse 2009]]). <!-- not outside of academia --><!--So what-->
* The problem is presented, discussed, and tested in the television show ''[[MythBusters]]'' on 23 November 2011. This paradox was not only tested to see if there was an advantage to switching vs. sticking (which, in a repeated sample of 49 "tests", showed a significant advantage to switching), but they also tested the behavior of "contestants" presented with the same situation. All 20 of the common "contestants" tested chose to stay with their original choice.
* The problem was also discussed and tested on the television show ''[[James May's Man Lab]]'' on 11 April 2013. In this presentation, each test was done by presenting three identical beer cans, two of which had been shaken (with the result that opening it would douse the person in beer foam). James May performed this test 100 times, each time switching his choice from his original choice after one of the shaken cans was removed. In the end, he was doused 40 times, while his colleague Sim, who had to pick the remaining beer can, was doused 60 times. The resulting percentage was roughly what they expected.<ref>
* Craig Whitaker's actual letter to vos Savant has been found, and his original question reported in Morgan et al. Response to Hogbin and Nijdam (2011): "I've worked out two different situations (based on Monty's prior behavior i.e. weather [sic.] or not he knows what's behind the doors) in one situation it is to your advantage to switch, in the other there is no advantage to switch." "What do you think?"
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==References==
{{refbegin |colwidth=30em}}
* {{cite journal |authorlink= Cecil Adams |last= Adams |first= Cecil |ref= refAdams1990 |url= http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_189.html |title= On 'Let's Make a Deal,' you pick door #1. Monty opens door #2 – no prize. Do you stay with door #1 or switch to #3? |journal= The Straight Dope |date= 2 November 1990 |accessdate= 25 July 2005 }}
* {{cite journal |last= Barbeau |first= Edward |ref= refBarbeau1993 |year= 1993 |title= Fallacies, Flaws, and Flimflam: The Problem of the Car and Goats |journal= The College Mathematics Journal |volume= 24 |issue= 2 |pages= 149–154|doi= 10.1080/07468342.1993.11973519 }}
* {{cite book |last= Barbeau |first= Edward |ref= refBarbeau2000 |year= 2000 |title= Mathematical Fallacies, Flaws and Flimflam |publisher= The Mathematical Association of America |isbn= 0-88385-529-1}}
* {{cite book |ref= refBehrends2008 |title= Five-Minute Mathematics |last= Behrends |first= Ehrhard |publisher= AMS Bookstore |year= 2008 |isbn= 978-0-8218-4348-2 |page= 57 |url=
* {{cite journal |last= Bell |first= William |ref= refBell1992 |title= Comment on 'Let's make a deal' by Morgan et al. |journal= American Statistician |volume= 46 |issue= 3 |page= 241 |date= August 1992}}
* {{cite web |ref=refBloch2008 |url=http://www.andybloch.com/gl/pub/article.php?story=2008031308241327 |title=21: The Movie (my review) |first=Andy |last=Bloch |authorlink=Andy Bloch |year=2008 |accessdate=2008-05-05 }}
* {{cite journal |ref=refCarlton2005 |url=http://www.amstat.org/publications/JSE/v13n2/carlton.html |title=Pedigrees, Prizes, and Prisoners: The Misuse of Conditional Probability |first=Matthew |last=Carlton |year=2005 |journal=Journal of Statistics Education [online] |volume=13 |issue=2 |accessdate=2010-05-29 }}
* {{cite journal |last= Chun |first= Young H. |ref= refChun1991 |year= 1991 |title= Game Show Problem |journal= OR/MS Today |volume= 18 |issue= 3 |page= 9}}
* {{cite web |last1= D'Ariano |first1= G.M. |last2= Gill |first2= R.D. |last3= Keyl |first3= M. |last4= Werner |first4= R.F. |last5= Kümmerer |first5= K. |last6= Maasen |first6= H. |
* {{cite web |ref=refDevlin2003 |url=http://www.maa.org/external_archive/devlin/devlin_07_03.html |title=Devlin's Angle: Monty Hall |publisher=The Mathematical Association of America |first=Keith |last=Devlin |authorlink=Keith Devlin |date=July–August 2003 |accessdate=23 June 2014 }}
* {{cite web |ref=refDevlin2005 |url=http://www.maa.org/external_archive/devlin/devlin_12_05.html |title=Devlin's Angle: Monty Hall revisited |publisher=The Mathematical Association of America |first=Keith |last=Devlin |authorlink=Keith Devlin |date=December 2005 |accessdate=23 June 2014 }}
* {{cite news |ref= refEconomist1999 |work= The Economist |title= Getting the goat: When it comes to weighing risks and probabilities, keep in mind this golden rule: never trust your guesses |volume= 350 |page= 110 |url= http://www.economist.com/node/187166 |date= 18 February 1999 }}
* {{cite book |last= Diaconis |first= Persi |ref= refDiaconis1988 |year= 1988 |title= Group representations in probability and statistics |series= IMS Lecture Notes |publisher= Institute of Mathematical Statistics |isbn= 0-940600-14-5}}
* {{cite journal |last= Eisenhauer |first= Joseph G. |ref= refEisenhauer2001 |year= 2001 |title= The Monty Hall Matrix |journal= Teaching Statistics |volume= 22 |issue= 1 |pages= 17–20 |url= http://isds.bus.lsu.edu/chun/teach/reading-a/matrix.pdf
* {{cite journal |last= Falk |first= Ruma |ref= refFalk1992 |year= 1992 |title= A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners |journal= Cognition |volume= 43 |issue= 3 |pages= 197–223 |doi=10.1016/0010-0277(92)90012-7|pmid= 1643813 }}
* {{cite journal |last1= Flitney |first1= Adrian P. |authorlink2= Derek Abbott |last2= Abbott |first2= Derek |lastauthoramp= yes |ref= refFlitney2002 |year=2002 |title= Quantum version of the Monty Hall problem |journal= Physical Review A |volume= 65 |issue= 6 |page= 062318 |doi= 10.1103/PhysRevA.65.062318 |id= Art. No. 062318, 2002 |arxiv= quant-ph/0109035}}
* {{cite journal |last1= Fox |first1= Craig R. |last2= Levav |first2= Jonathan |lastauthoramp= yes |ref= refFoxandLevav2004 |year= 2004 |title= Partition-Edit-Count: Naive Extensional Reasoning in Judgment of Conditional Probability |journal= Journal of Experimental Psychology: General |volume= 133 |issue= 4 |pages= 626–642|doi= 10.1037/0096-3445.133.4.626 |pmid= 15584810 }}
* {{cite web |date=18 September 2012 |first=Caroline |last=Frost |title=TV Review: Derren Brown: Svengali – How Does He Do It? No, Really – I'm Asking... |url=http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/09/18/tv-review-derren-brown-svengali_n_1894718.html
* {{cite journal |authorlink= Martin Gardner |last= Gardner |first= Martin |ref= refGardner1959a |title= Mathematical Games |journal= Scientific American |date= October 1959a |pages= 180–182 |postscript=. Reprinted in ''The Second Scientific American Book of Mathematical Puzzles and Diversions''}}
* {{cite journal |last= Gardner |first= Martin |ref= refGardner1959b |title= Mathematical Games |journal= Scientific American |date= November 1959b |page= 188}}
* {{cite book |last=Gardner |first=Martin |year=1982 |title=Aha! Gotcha: Paradoxes to Puzzle and Delight |publisher=W. H. Freeman |isbn=978-0716713616
* {{cite book |authorlink= Jeff Gill |last= Gill |first= Jeff |year= 2002 |title= Bayesian Methods |pages= 8–10 |publisher= CRC Press |isbn= 1-58488-288-3 |postscript=. ({{Google books|IJ3XTLQViM4C|restricted online copy|page=8}})}}
* {{cite book |authorlink= Richard D. Gill |last= Gill |first= Richard |ref= refGill2010 |chapter= Monty Hall problem |pages=858–863 |title= International Encyclopaedia of Statistical Science |publisher= Springer |year= 2010 |arxiv= 1002.3878v2 }}
* {{cite journal |last= Gill |first= Richard |ref= refGill2011 |title= The Monty Hall Problem is not a probability puzzle (it's a challenge in mathematical modelling) |journal= Statistica Neerlandica |volume= 65 |issue= 1 |pages= 58–71 |date= February 2011 |arxiv= 1002.0651v3 |doi=10.1111/j.1467-9574.2010.00474.x}}
* {{cite web |ref= refGill2011a |last= Gill |first= Richard |year= 2011 |title= The Monty Hall Problem |publisher= Mathematical Institute, University of Leiden, Netherlands |pages= 10–13 |date= 17 March 2011a |url= http://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~gill/mhp-statprob.pdf
* {{cite
* {{cite journal |ref= refGillman1992 |authorlink= Leonard Gillman |last= Gillman |first= Leonard |year= 1992 |jstor= 2324540 |title= The Car and the Goats |journal= American Mathematical Monthly |volume= 99 |issue= 1 |pages= 3–7|doi= 10.1080/00029890.1992.11995797 }}
* {{cite journal|ref=refGilovichetal1995|last1=Gilovich|first1=T.|last2=Medvec|first2=V.H.|last3=Chen|first3=S.|lastauthoramp=yes|title=Commission, Omission, and Dissonance Reduction: Coping with Regret in the "Monty Hall" Problem|journal=Personality and Social Psychology Journal|year=1995|volume=21|issue=2|pages=182–190|doi=10.1177/0146167295212008|url=http://psp.sagepub.com/content/21/2/182.abstract}}
* {{cite web |ref= refGnedin2011 |authorlink= Sasha Gnedin |last= Gnedin |first= Sasha |year= 2011 |title= The Mondee Gills Game |work= The Mathematical Intelligencer |url= http://www.springerlink.com/content/8402812734520774/fulltext.pdf }}{{Dead link|date=July 2021 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |
* {{cite book |ref= refGranberg1996 |last= Granberg |first= Donald |year= 1996 |chapter= To Switch or Not to Switch |editor-last= vos Savant |editor-first= Marilyn |title= The Power of Logical Thinking |publisher= St. Martin's Press |isbn= 0-312-30463-3 |postscript=. ({{Google books|jNndlc2W4pAC|restricted online copy |page=169}})}}
* {{cite journal |last1= Granberg |first1= Donald |last2= Brown |first2= Thad A. |lastauthoramp= yes |ref= refGranbergandBrown1995 |year= 1995 |title= The Monty Hall Dilemma |journal= Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin |volume= 21 |issue= 7 |pages= 711–729|doi= 10.1177/0146167295217006 }}
* {{cite book |ref= refGrinsteadandSnell2006 |last1= Grinstead |first1= Charles M. |last2= Snell |first2= J. Laurie |lastauthoramp= yes |title= Grinstead and Snell's Introduction to Probability |url= http://www.math.dartmouth.edu/~prob/prob/prob.pdf |accessdate= 2 April 2008 |date= 4 July 2006
* {{cite book |ref= refGruber2010 |title= The World's 200 Hardest Brain Teasers |last= Gruber |first= Gary |publisher= Sourcebooks
* {{cite book |ref=Hayden2009 |title=This Book Does Not Exist: Adventures in the Paradoxical |year=2009 |publisher= Fall River Press |___location=New York |isbn=978-1-4351-1071-7 |pages=90–93 |first1= Gary |last1= Hayden |first2= Michael |last2= Picard |lastauthoramp= yes |edition=2009 |chapter=5: Probability Paradoxes |quote=In September of 1990, in an issue of Parade magazine, High-IQ columnist Marilyn vos Savant introduced this puzzle in the weekly "Ask Marilyn" section. The puzzle was based on the TV show, Let's Make a Deal, in which host Monty Hall presented contestants with essentially the same choices in order to win either a high-value prize or one of two undesirable alternatives...Marilyn's analysis revealed, quite correctly, that switching doors doubles the chances of driving away [in] a shiny new car. But readers wrote in their thousands to disagree. Many of her severest critics were people with math and science Ph.D.s, who hauled her over the coals for what they considered a monumental gaffe. The debate raged for almost a year, culminating in a front-page article in the New York Times on Sunday, July 21, 1991, in which Marilyn's analysis was vindicated.}}
* {{cite web |ref= refHall1975 |authorlink= Monty Hall |last= Hall |first= Monty |year= 1975 |url= http://www.letsmakeadeal.com/problem.htm |title= The Monty Hall Problem |work= LetsMakeADeal.com |accessdate= 15 January 2007 |postscript= . Includes 12 May 1975 letter to Steve Selvin }}
* {{cite book |ref= refHenze1997 |last= Henze |first= Norbert |origyear= 1997 |title= Stochastik für Einsteiger: Eine Einführung in die faszinierende Welt des Zufalls |edition= 9th |year= 2011 |pages= 50–51, 105–107 |publisher= Springer |isbn= 9783834818454 |postscript=. ({{Google books|esknPQ4sUs4C|restricted online copy|page=105}})}}
* {{cite journal |ref= refHerbransonandSchroeder2010 |last1= Herbranson |first1= W. T. |last2= Schroeder |first2= J. |lastauthoramp= yes |year= 2010 |title= Are birds smarter than mathematicians? Pigeons (''Columba livia'') perform optimally on a version of the Monty Hall Dilemma |journal= Journal of Comparative Psychology |volume= 124 |issue= 1 |pages= 1–13 |
*{{cite journal |ref= refHogbinandNijdam2010 |
* {{cite journal |ref= refKahnemanetal1991 |authorlink= Daniel Kahneman |
* {{cite journal|ref=refKaivantoetal2014|last1=Kaivanto|first1=K.|last2=Kroll|first2=E.B.|last3=Zabinski|first3=M.|lastauthoramp=yes|title=Bias Trigger Manipulation and Task-Form Understanding in Monty Hall|journal=Economics Bulletin|year=2014|volume=34|issue=1|pages=89–98|url=http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2014/Volume34/EB-14-V34-I1-P10.pdf}}
* {{cite journal |ref= refKraussandWang2003 |last1= Krauss |first1= Stefan |last2= Wang |first2= X. T. |lastauthoramp= yes |year= 2003 |title= The Psychology of the Monty Hall Problem: Discovering Psychological Mechanisms for Solving a Tenacious Brain Teaser |journal= Journal of Experimental Psychology: General |volume= 132 |issue= 1 |pages= 3–22 |doi= 10.1037/0096-3445.132.1.3 |pmid= 12656295 |url= http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/FUDISS_derivate_000000001141/04_chap2.pdf
* {{cite journal |ref= refLucasetal2009 |last1= Lucas |first1= Stephen |first2= Jason |last2= Rosenhouse |first3= Andrew |last3= Schepler |lastauthoramp= yes |year= 2009 |title= The Monty Hall Problem, Reconsidered |journal= Mathematics Magazine |volume= 82 |issue= 5 |pages= 332–342 |doi= 10.4169/002557009X478355 |url= http://educ.jmu.edu/~lucassk/Papers/MHOverview2.pdf
* {{cite book |ref= refMack1992 |title= The Unofficial IEEE Brainbuster Gamebook |last= Mack |first= Donald R. |publisher= Wiley-IEEE |year= 1992 |isbn= 978-0-7803-0423-9 |page= 76 |url=
* {{cite book |ref=refMagliozziandMagliozzi1998 |last1= Magliozzi |first1= Tom |last2= Magliozzi |first2= Ray |lastauthoramp= yes |authorlink=Tom Magliozzi |title= Haircut in Horse Town: & Other Great Car Talk Puzzlers |publisher= Diane Pub Co. |year=1998 |isbn=0-7567-6423-8}}
* {{cite book |ref= refMartin1989 |last= Martin |first= Phillip |url= http://sites.google.com/site/psmartinsite/Home/bridge-articles/the-monty-hall-trap |chapter= The Monty Hall Trap |origyear= 1989 |editor-last1= Granovetter |editor1-first= Pamela |editor2-last= Granovetter |editor2-first= Matthew |year= 1993 |
* {{cite book |ref= refMartin2002 |title= There are two errors in the {{not a typo |the}} title of this book |last= Martin |first= Robert M. |edition= 2nd |publisher= Broadview Press |year= 2002 |isbn= 978-1-55111-493-4 |pages= 57–59 |url=
* {{cite book |ref= CITEREFMlodinow2008 |last= Mlodinow |first= Leonard |title= The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives |year= 2008 |pages= 53–56 |postscript=. {{cite AV media |url= http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=zAt27VwavJ8&t=1500 |title= The Monty Hall Problem |via= YouTube |time= 25:00–28:00}} }}
* {{cite journal |ref= refMorganetal1991 |last1= Morgan |first1= J. P. |last2= Chaganty |first2= N. R. |last3= Dahiya |first3= R. C. |last4= Doviak |first4= M. J. |lastauthoramp= yes |year= 1991 |jstor= 2684453 |title= Let's make a deal: The player's dilemma |journal= American Statistician |volume= 45 |issue= 4 |pages= 284–287 |doi=10.1080/00031305.1991.10475821}}
* {{cite web |ref= refMoroneandFiore2007 |last1= Morone |first1= A. |first2= A. |last2= Fiore |lastauthoramp= yes |year= 2007 |title= Monty Hall's Three Doors for Dummies |publisher= Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Matematici – Università di Bari, Southern Europe Research in Economic Studies – S.E.R.I.E.S. |id= Working Paper no. 0012 |url= http://ideas.repec.org/p/bai/series/wp0012.html }}
* {{cite web |ref= refMueserandGranberg1999 |last1= Mueser |first1= Peter R. |last2= Granberg |first2= Donald |lastauthoramp= yes |date= May 1999 |url= http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/wpawuwpex/9906001.htm |title= The Monty Hall Dilemma Revisited: Understanding the Interaction of Problem Definition and Decision Making |publisher= University of Missouri |id= Working Paper 99-06 |accessdate= 10 June 2010 }}
* {{cite journal |ref= refNalebuff1987 |authorlink= Barry Nalebuff |last= Nalebuff |first= Barry |title= Puzzles: Choose a Curtain, Duel-ity, Two Point Conversions, and More |journal= Journal of Economic Perspectives |volume= 1 |issue= 2 |pages= 157–163 |date= Autumn 1987 |doi=10.1257/jep.1.2.157}}
* {{cite journal |ref= CITEREFRao1992 |last= Rao |first= M. Bhaskara |title= Comment on ''Let's make a deal'' by Morgan et al. |journal= American Statistician |volume= 46 |issue= 3 |pages= 241–242 |date= August 1992}}
* {{cite book |ref= refRosenhouse2009 |last= Rosenhouse |first= Jason |title= The Monty Hall Problem |publisher= Oxford University Press |year= 2009 |isbn= 978-0-19-536789-8}}
* {{cite journal |ref= refRosenthal2005a |title= Monty Hall, Monty Fall, Monty Crawl |first= Jeffrey S. |last= Rosenthal |date= September 2005a |journal= Math Horizons |pages= 5–7 |url= http://probability.ca/jeff/writing/montyfall.pdf
* {{cite book |ref= refRosenthal2005b |last= Rosenthal |first= Jeffrey S. |year= 2005b |title= Struck by Lightning: the Curious World of Probabilities |publisher= Harper Collins |isbn= 978-0-00-200791-7}}
* {{cite journal |ref= refSamuelsonandZeckhauser1988 |last1= Samuelson |first1= W |first2= R. |last2= Zeckhauser |lastauthoramp=yes |year= 1988 |title= Status quo bias in decision making |journal= Journal of Risk and Uncertainty |volume= 1 |pages= 7–59 |doi=10.1007/bf00055564}}
* {{cite book |ref= refSchwager1994 |title= The New Market Wizards |last= Schwager |first= Jack D. |publisher= Harper Collins |year= 1994 |isbn= 978-0-88730-667-9 |page= 397 |url=
* {{cite journal |ref= CITEREFSelvin1975a |last=Selvin |first=Steve |year=1975a |title=A problem in probability (letter to the editor) |journal=American Statistician |volume=29 |issue=1 |page= 67 |date= February 1975 |issn= |jstor= 2683689 }}
* {{cite journal |ref= CITEREFSelvin1975b |last=Selvin |first=Steve |year=1975b |title=On the Monty Hall problem (letter to the editor) |journal=American Statistician |volume=29 |issue=3 |page=134 |date= August 1975 |issn= |jstor= 2683443 }}
* {{cite journal |ref= CITEREFSeymann1991 |last= Seymann |first= R. G. |year= 1991 |jstor= 2684454 |title= Comment on Let's make a deal: The player's dilemma |journal= American Statistician |volume= 45 |pages= 287–288}}
* {{cite web |ref= refSteinbach2000 |last= Steinbach |first= Marc C. |year= 2000 |url= http://www.zib.de/Publications/Reports/ZR-00-40.pdf
* {{cite journal |ref= refStibeletal2008 |authorlink= Jeff Stibel |last1= Stibel |first1= Jeffrey |last2= Dror |first2= Itiel |last3= Ben-Zeev |first3= Talia |year= 2008 |title= The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making |journal= Theory and Decision |url= http://users.ecs.soton.ac.uk/id/TD%20choice%20and%20judgment.pdf
* {{cite news |ref= CITEREFTierney1991 |last= Tierney |first= John |authorlink= John Tierney (journalist) |url= http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CEFDD1E3FF932A15754C0A967958260 |title= Behind Monty Hall's Doors: Puzzle, Debate and Answer? |newspaper= The New York Times |date= 21 July 1991 |accessdate= 18 January 2008 }}
* {{cite news |ref= CITEREFTierney2008 |last= Tierney |first= John |url= http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08tier.html |title= And Behind Door No. 1, a Fatal Flaw |journal= The New York Times |date= 8 April 2008 |accessdate= 8 April 2008 }}
* {{cite journal |ref= refVazsonyi1999 |last= Vazsonyi |first= Andrew |title= Which Door Has the Cadillac? |journal= Decision Line |date= December 1998 – January 1999 |pages= 17–19 |url= http://www.decisionsciences.org/DecisionLine/Vol30/30_1/vazs30_1.pdf
* {{cite journal |ref= refvosSavantGSP |author1-link= Marilyn vos Savant |last= vos Savant |first= Marilyn |date= 1990–91 |title= Game Show Problem |url= http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |accessdate= 16 December 2012 |journal= |archive-date= 29 April 2012 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20120429013941/http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |url-status= dead }}
* {{cite journal |last=vos Savant |first=Marilyn |ref=CITEREFvos_Savant1990a |url=http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |title=Ask Marilyn |journal=Parade Magazine |page=16 |date=9 September 1990a |access-date=8 July 2014 |archive-date=29 April 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120429013941/http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |url-status=dead }}
* {{cite journal |last= vos Savant |first= Marilyn |ref= CITEREFvos_Savant1990b |url= http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |title= Ask Marilyn |journal= Parade Magazine |page= 25 |date= 2 December 1990b |access-date= 8 July 2014 |archive-date= 29 April 2012 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20120429013941/http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |url-status= dead }}
* {{cite journal |last= vos Savant |first= Marilyn |ref= CITEREFvos_Savant1991a |url= http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |title= Ask Marilyn |journal= Parade Magazine |page= 12 |date= 17 February 1991a |access-date= 8 July 2014 |archive-date= 29 April 2012 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20120429013941/http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |url-status= dead }}
* {{cite journal |last= vos Savant |first= Marilyn |ref= CITEREFvos_Savant1991b |url= http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |title= Ask Marilyn |journal= Parade Magazine |page= 26 |date= 7 July 1991b |access-date= 8 July 2014 |archive-date= 29 April 2012 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20120429013941/http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ |url-status= dead }}
* {{cite journal |last= vos Savant |first= Marilyn |ref= CITEREFvos_Savant1991c |title= Marilyn vos Savant's reply |department= Letters to the editor |journal= American Statistician |volume= 45 |issue= 4 |page= 347 |date= November 1991c}}
* {{cite book
* {{cite journal |last= vos Savant |first= Marilyn |ref= CITEREFvos_Savant2006 |title= Ask Marilyn |journal= Parade Magazine |page= 6 |date= 26 November 2006}}
* {{cite web |ref=refWilliams2004 |url=http://www.nd.edu/~rwilliam/stats1/appendices/xappxd.pdf |title=Appendix D: The Monty Hall Controversy |first=Richard |last=Williams |year=2004
* {{cite book |ref= refWheeler1991 |title= Phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences |chapter= Congruence Among Data Sets: A Bayesian Approach |last= Wheeler |first= Ward C. |editor-first1= Michael M. |editor-last1= Miyamoto |editor-first2= Joel |editor-last2= Cracraft |lastauthoramp= yes |publisher= Oxford University Press US |year= 1991 |isbn= 978-0-19-506698-2 |page= 335 |chapter-url=
* {{cite journal |last= Whitaker |first= Craig F. |ref= refWhitaker1990 |title= [Formulation by Marilyn vos Savant of question posed in a letter from Craig Whitaker]. Ask Marilyn |journal= Parade Magazine |page= 16 |date= 9 September 1990}}
<!-- {{cite journal |first= Marilyn |last= vos Savant |date= November 26 – December 2, 2006 |title= Ask Marilyn |journal= Parade Classroom Teacher's Guide |pages= 3 |url= http://www.paradeclassroom.com/tg_folders/2006/1126/TG_11262006.pdf |format= [[PDF]] |accessdate= 27 November 2006 |isbn= 0-312-08136-7 }} -->
Line 367 ⟶ 355:
* [http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html The Game Show Problem]–the original question and responses on Marilyn vos Savant's web site
* [http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/Montytitle.html University of California San Diego, Monty Knows Version and Monty Does Not Know Version, An Explanation of the Game]
* "[http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/MontyHallParadox/ Monty Hall Paradox]" by Matthew R. McDougal, [[The Wolfram Demonstrations Project]] (simulation)
* [http://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/v/monty-hall-problem
* [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08monty.html The Monty Hall Problem] at The New York Times (simulation)
* [http://www.matifutbol.com/en/reserve.html The reserve player's chance] A practical example on the Monty Hall paradox.
Line 380 ⟶ 367:
{{DEFAULTSORT:Monty Hall Problem}}
[[:Category:Decision
[[:Category:Game theory]]
[[:Category:Let's Make a Deal]]
[[:Category:Mathematical problems]]
[[:Category:Microeconomics]]
[[:Category:Probability theory paradoxes]]
[[:Category:Named probability problems]]
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