Reliability theory of aging and longevity: Difference between revisions

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{{short description|Biophysics theory}}

{{notability|date=September 2015}}

{{third-party|date=December 2014}}

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The '''reliability theory of aging''' is an attempt to apply the principles of [[reliability theory]] to create a [[mathematical model]] of [[senescence]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Gavrilov |first1=Leonid A. |last2=Gavrilova |first2=Natalia S. |title=Chapter 1 - Reliability Theory of Aging and Longevity |journal=Handbook of the Biology of Aging (Sixth Edition) |series=Handbooks of Aging |date=1 January 2005 |pages=3–42 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780120883875500042 |publisher=Academic Press|doi=10.1016/B978-012088387-5/50004-2 |isbn=978-0-12-088387-5 |url-access=subscription }}</ref> The theory was published in Russian by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova as ''Biologiia prodolzhitelʹnosti zhizni'' in 1986, and in English translation as ''The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach'' in 1991.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Gavrilov |first1=Leonid A. |last2=Gavrilova |first2= Natalia S. |editor1-last=Skulachev |editor1-first=V.P. |editor1-link=Vladimir P. Skulachev |title=Биология продолжительности жизни: Количественные аспекты |year=1986 |trans-title=Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=zMY5AAAAIAAJ |language=ru |edition=1st |___location=Moscow |publisher=[[Nauka (publisher)|Nauka]] |publication-date=1986 |pages=167}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last1=Gavrilov |first1=Leonid A. |last2=Gavrilova |first2= Natalia S. |editor1-last=Skulachev |editor1-first=V.P. |editor1-link=Vladimir P. Skulachev |title=Биология продолжительности жизни: Количественные аспекты |year=1991 |trans-title=Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach |url=https://textarchive.ru/c-1387064-pall.html |language=ru |edition=2nd |___location=Moscow |publisher=[[Nauka (publisher)|Nauka]] |publication-date=1991 |pages=280 |isbn=5-02-013445-7}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last1=Gavrilov |first1=Leonid A. |last2=Gavrilova |first2= Natalia S. |editor1-last=Skulachev |editor1-first=V.P. |editor1-link=Vladimir P. Skulachev |title=Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach |date=7 March 1991 |language=en |edition=1st |___location=New York |publisher=Chur |publication-date=1991 |pages=385 |isbn=978-3718649839}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|author=A.J.S. Rayl |date=2002-05-13 |title=Aging, in Theory: A Personal Pursuit. Do body system redundancies hold the key? |url=http://longevity-science.org/TheScientist.pdf |journal=[[The Scientist (magazine)|The Scientist]] |volume=16 |issue=10 |pages=20 |doi= |pmc= |pmid=}}</ref>

The '''reliability theory of aging''' is an attempt to apply the principles of [[reliability theory]] to create a [[mathematical model]] of [[senescence]]. The theory was published in Russian by [[Leonid A. Gavrilov]] and Natalia S. Gavrilova as ''Biologiia prodolzhitelʹnosti zhizni'' in 1986, and in English translation as ''The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach'' in 1991.{{r|gav|rayl}}

One of the models suggested in the book is based on an analogy with the reliability theory. The underlying [[hypothesis]] is based on the (previously suggested) premise that humans are born in a highly defective state. This is then made worse by environmental and mutational damage; exceptionally high [[Redundancy (engineering)|redundancy]] due to the extremely high number of low-reliable components (e.g.., [[cell (biology)|cell]]s) allows the organism to survive for a while.<ref>{{rcite web|url=https://spectrum.ieee.org/engineering-and-aging-the-best-is-yet-to-be |title=Engineering and Aging: The Best Is Yet to Be |work=[[IEEE Spectrum]] |date=2004-09-01}}</ref><ref name=gg2001/>

The theory suggests an explanation of two aging phenomena for higher organisms: the [[Gompertz law]] of exponential increase in mortality rates with age and the "late-life mortality plateau" (mortality deceleration compared to the Gompertz law at higher ages).<ref name=gg2001>Gavrilov, Gavrilova (2001).</ref>

The book criticizes a number of hypotheses known at the time, discusses drawbacks of the hypotheses put forth by the authors themselves, and concludes that regardless of the suggested mathematical models, the underlying biological mechanisms remain unknown.<ref>"Conclusion" section of the book</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Gavrilov |first1=Leonid A. |last2=Gavrilova |first2=Natalia S. |date=2001-12-21 |title=The reliability theory of aging and longevity |url= https://www.researchgate.net/publication/11613344 |journal=Journal of Theoretical Biology |volume=213 |issue=4 |pages=527–545 |doi=10.1006/jtbi.2001.2430 |pmid=11742523|bibcode=2001JThBi.213..527G |citeseerx=10.1.1.295.6141 }}</ref>

==Leonid Gavrilov==

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'''Leonid A. Gavrilov''' is a Russian-born American scientist. He is a [[research associate]] at the Center on Aging of the [[National Opinion Research Center]] in [[Chicago]], in the United States. He specializes in the mathematical modeling of aging and mortality, [[biodemography]] and the genetics of aging and longevity. {{cn|date=November 2017}} He is currently a Senior Research Associate at the [[University of Chicago]]. {{cn|date=November 2017}} He is married to Natalia S. Gavrilova.

===Biography===

Gavrilov has an [[MSc]] in chemistry (1976) and a [[PhD]] in [[genetics]] (1980), both from [[Moscow State University]]. His book ''The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach'' was published in Russian in 1986 and in English translation in 1991.<ref name=interview/><ref name=book>Leonid A. Gavrilov, Natalia S. Gavrilova; V.P. Skulachev (ed.); John and Liliya Payne (trans.) (1991). ''The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach''. Harwood Academic Publishers. {{ISBN|9783718649839}}.</ref> In 1998 he and his wife emigrated to the United States, where he received a grant from the [[National Institute on Aging]] to study the effects of parental age on lifespan. He taught a course on "biodemography of human mortality and longevity" at the [[University of Chicago]].<ref name=interview/>

Gavrilov is an associate editor of ''[[Experimental Gerontology]]'' and ''[[Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling]]'', and an editorial board member of ''[[Rejuvenation Research]]'', ''[[Advanced Science Letters]]'' and ''[[The Scientific World Journal]]''. He is a consultant for the [[National Research Council (United States)|National Research Council]] and the National Institute on Aging,<ref name=interview>[s.n.] (2002). [http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/109454502321091455?journalCode=rej.1 Pieces of the puzzle: an interview with Leonid A. Gavrilov, PhD]. ''Journal of Anti-Aging Medicine'' '''5''' (3): 255-263.</ref> and a fellow of the [[Gerontological Society of America]].

===Publications===

* L. A. Gavrilov and N. S. Gavrilova (1986). ''Биология продолжительности жизни: количественные аспекты'' (''Biologiia prodolzhitelʹnosti zhizni: kolichestvennye aspekty''), Moscow; [[Nauka (publisher)|Nauka]], supervisory editor: Academician {{ill|Vladimir Skulachyov|lt=V. P. Skulachyov|ru|Скулачёв, Владимир Петрович}}

* Leonid A. Gavrilov, Natalia S. Gavrilova; V.P. Skulachev (ed.); John and Liliya Payne (trans.) (1991). ''The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach'', [[Harwood Academic Publishers]]. {{ISBN|9783718649839}}. (translation of the second, revided 1991 edition of the original book by L. A. Gavrilov and N. S. Gavrilova)

* Leonid A. Gavrilov, Natalia S. Gavrilova (2001). [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519301924300 The Reliability Theory of Aging and Longevity]. ''Journal of Theoretical Biology'' '''213''': (4): 527-545.

* {{long dash}} (2004). [http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1196/annals.1297.094/abstract The Reliability-Engineering Approach to the Problem of Biological Aging]. ''Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences'' '''1019''' (1): 509–512.

* {{long dash}} (2006). [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780120883875500042 Reliability Theory of Aging and Longevity]. In: Edward J. Masoro and Steven N. Austad (2006). ''Handbook of the Biology of Aging'', sixth edition. Burlington, Massachusetts: Academic Press. {{ISBN|9780120883875}}.

==See also==

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==References==

{{reflist|refs=}}

<ref name=gav>Leonid A. Gavrilov, Natalia S. Gavrilova; V.P. Skulachev (ed.); John and Liliya Payne (trans.) (1991). ''The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach''. Chur; New York: Harwood Academic Publishers. {{ISBN|9783718649839}}.</ref>

<ref name=ieee>[s.n.] (1 September 2004). [https://web.archive.org/web/20140423124046/http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/devices/engineering-and-aging-the-best-is-yet-to-be Engineering and Aging: The Best Is Yet to Be]. IEEE Spectrum. Archived 23 April 2014.</ref>

<ref name=rayl>A.J.S. Rayl (May 2002). <!--- please do not link to healthsters.com - copyright violation--->Aging, in Theory: A Personal Pursuit. Do body system redundancies hold the key? ''The Scientist'' '''16''' (10): 20.</ref>

}}

{{senescence}}

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[[Category:Reliability engineering]]

[[Category:Failure]]

[[Category:Ageing]]

[[Category:Gerontology]]

[[Category:Survival analysis]]

[[Category:Theories of agingbiological ageing]]

[[Category:Theories of biological aging]]