Morphological analysis (problem-solving): Difference between revisions

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{{Short description|Exploration of possible solutions}}

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'''Morphological analysis''' or '''general morphological analysis''' is a method for exploring possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by Swiss &nbsp;astronomer [[Fritz Zwicky]].<ref name = "GMA">Ritchey, T. (1998). [http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html General Morphological Analysis: A general method for non-quantified modeling] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100324053008/http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html |date=2010-03-24 }}.</ref> General morphology has found use in fields including [[engineering design]], [[Technology forecasting|technological forecasting]], [[organizational development]] and policy analysis.<ref>Álvarez, A. & Ritchey, T. (2015). [http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf "Applications of General Morphological Analysis: From Engineering Design to Policy Analysis", Acta Morphologica Generalis, Vol.4 No.1.] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160513133747/http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf|date=2016-05-13}}</ref>

==Overview==

General [[Taxonomy (general)|morphology]] was developed by [[Fritz Zwicky]], the Bulgarian-born, Swiss-national [[astrophysicist]] based at the [[California Institute of Technology]]. Among others, Zwicky applied morphological analysis to astronomical studies and jet and [[Spacecraft propulsion|rocket propulsion]] systems. As a problem-structuring and [[Problem solving|problem-solving]] technique, morphological analysis was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modelling and simulation do not function well, or at all.

Zwicky developed this approach to address seemingly non-reducible complexity: using the technique of [[cross-consistency assessment]] (CCA),<ref name="GMA" /> the system allows for reduction by identifying the possible solutions that actually exist, eliminating the illogical solution combinations in a grid box (sometimes called a '''<span class="anchor" id="Morphological box">morphological box</span>''') rather than reducing the number of variables involved.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Ritchey|first=T|date=July 2006|title=Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis|journal=Journal of the Operational Research Society|volume=57|issue=7|pages=792–801|doi=10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602177|s2cid=19792496|issn=0160-5682}}</ref> General morphology has found use in fields including [[engineering design]], [[Technology forecasting|technological forecasting]], [[organizational development]] and policy analysis.<ref>Álvarez, A. & Ritchey, T. (2015). [http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf "Applications of General Morphological Analysis: From Engineering Design to Policy Analysis", Acta Morphologica Generalis, Vol.4 No.1.] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160513133747/http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf |date=2016-05-13 }}</ref>

[[File:Morphological box (bread example).png|alt=A morphological box for bread with six categories arranged in rows: Flour, Leavening, Shape, Crust, Additions, and Baking. Each row contains 4 options with selected items highlighted in green or blue boxes. Selected combinations appear to create two bread types shown at the bottom: For Olive Ciabatta (shown with green highlights): White flour, Yeast leavening, Flat shape, Chewy crust, Olives as additions, and Oven baking method. For Baguette (shown with blue highlights): White flour, Yeast leavening, Loaf shape, Crispy crust, Plain (no additions), and Steam baking method.|thumb|An example morphological box illustrating the attributes of different types of bread]]

Since F. Zwicky applied this method to astronomical objects like stars, his matrix included the size of the stars on one entrance and the color (visual to people) on the other entrance. The resulting matrix included everything from dwarf stars to giants, and on the other side white, blue, yellow, red and black ones. On the cross sections of the table, there appeared something well-known, like blue giants or yellow normal stars (like our sun). However, some of the cells turned out empty, i.e., not known to the Astronomy of his time. That was a heuristic hint on what to search. Later these predicted stars were discovered. So the heuristic value of Zwicky's approach should be valued too. It could be compared to the famous Table of Chemical Elements which predicted some non-discovered elements (empty cells), and when scientists learned what to look for, they later discovered them. Germanium was one of them.

When applied to Creative Problem Solving (as a mental technique), Morphological Analysis taught people to create a table/matrix and thus disassemble the object under the process into elements. The combination of the new objects received on the cross sections led to multiple and easily accessible/visualized variants, calculated in hundreds and even thousands.

Henry Altshuller, the founder of ARIZ and TRIZ, did not like the Morphological Analysis method because he was looking for one-two unique solution(s) (invention), not just many relatively meaningless ones. So he called it "rebellion on the knees."

Morphological Analysis, however, turned out more efficient than brainstorming. Instead of 1 idea per minute (Brainstorming allowed to get 90 ideas in 90 minutes, according to Osborn), the Zwicky approach led to tens of ideas per minute.

==Decomposition versus morphological analysis==

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The conventional approach is to break a complex system into parts, isolate the parts (dropping the 'trivial' elements) whose contributions are critical to the output and solve the simplified system for desired scenarios. The disadvantage of this method is that many real-world phenomena do not have obviously trivial elements and cannot be simplified.

Morphological analysis works backwards from the output towards the system internals without a simplification step.<ref>Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems Using Morphological Analysis (Ritchey 2003-06)[http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/it-webart.pdf] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070929124133/http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/it-webart.pdf |date=2007-09-29 }}</ref> The system's interactions are fully accounted for in the analysis.

== References in fiction ==

[[Robert A. Heinlein]] has his characters use a "Zwicky box" in ''[[Time Enough for Love]]'', to figure out what's available to break the ennui of his 2000-year-old character.

{{Reflist}}

[[David Brin]] used "Zwicky Choice Boxes" in ''[[Sundiver]]'' as a means to help solve a murder mystery.

== Further reading ==

*{{Citation|last=Ritchey|first=Tom|chapter=Modelling Complex Policy Issues with Morphological Analysis|date=2011|pages=31–37|publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg|isbn=9783642196522|doi=10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9_4|title=Wicked Problems – Social Messes}}

*{{Cite journal |first1=Fritz |last1=Zwicky |last2=Page|first2=T.|date=1969-03-21|title=Discovery, Invention, Research, through the Morphological Approach |publisher=Macmillan |___location=New York|journal=Science|volume=163|issue=3873|pages=1317–1318|doi=10.1126/science.163.3873.1317|issn=0036-8075}}

*{{Citation|last=Wilson|first=Albert|chapter=Epilogue|date=1967|pages=333–338|publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg|isbn=9783642876196|doi=10.1007/978-3-642-87617-2_17|title=New Methods of Thought and Procedure}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Jones|first=J. C.|date=July 1981|title=Design methods and theories|journal=Design Studies|volume=2|issue=3|pages=176|doi=10.1016/0142-694x(81)90074-0|issn=0142-694X}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Shubik|first=M.|date=1969-12-05|title=Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning. Robert U. Ayres. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969. xviii + 238 pp., illus. $12.50|journal=Science|volume=166|issue=3910|pages=1257–1258|doi=10.1126/science.166.3910.1257|issn=0036-8075}}

*{{Cite web|title=Morphological analysis as an aid to organisational design and transformation|last=Duczynski|first=G.A.|date=2016|website=*{{Cite web|url=https://globalecco.org/ctx-vol.-5-no.-1-february-2015;jsessionid=963C6228BE8D478E0605E2CFEBA524CF|title=Sustainability of the Afghan Security Forces: A Wicked Problem.|last1=Duczynski|first1=G.A.|last2=Jablonski|first2=J.|date=February 2015|website=globalecco.org|publisher=Counter Terrorism Exchange|access-date=2019-05-05|last3=Huddleston|first3=V|volume=5|issue=1}}

*{{cite journal|url=https://www.systemdynamics.org/assets/conferences/2000/PDFs/ducz124p.pdf |last=Duczynski |first=G.A. |year=2000 |title=A Practitioner's Experience of Using Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures |journal=Futures Research Quarterly |volume=16|issue= 3}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=Guy|date=October 2004|title=Systems approaches to economic development for indigenous people: a case study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia|journal=Futures|volume=36|issue=8|pages=869–888|doi=10.1016/j.futures.2004.01.001|issn=0016-3287}}

*{{Citation|last=Levin|first=Mark Sh.|chapter=Modular Systems, Combinatorial Engineering Frameworks|date=2014-09-06|pages=1–10|publisher=Springer International Publishing|isbn=9783319098753|doi=10.1007/978-3-319-09876-0_1|title=Modular System Design and Evaluation|series=Decision Engineering}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=Guy|date=January 2018|title=Investigating traffic congestion: Targeting technological and social interdependencies through general morphological analysis|journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change|volume=126|pages=161–167|doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.019|issn=0040-1625}}

== See also ==

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* [[Influence diagrams]]

* [[Market research]]

* [[Morphological box]]

* [[Scenario analysis]]

* [[Scenario planning]]

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* [[Wicked problem]]

{{div col end}}

== References ==

{{Reflist}}

== Further reading ==

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=G.A.|journal=Futures |date=2016|volume=86 |pages=36–43 |doi=10.1016/j.futures.2016.08.001 |title=Morphological analysis as an aid to organisational design and transformation|url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328716300970|url-access=subscription}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=Guy|date=October 2004|title=Systems approaches to economic development for indigenous people: a case study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia|journal=Futures|volume=36|issue=8|pages=869–888|doi=10.1016/j.futures.2004.01.001|issn=0016-3287}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=Guy|date=January 2018|title=Investigating traffic congestion: Targeting technological and social interdependencies through general morphological analysis|journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change|volume=126|pages=161–167|doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.019|issn=0040-1625}}

*{{cite journal|url=https://www.systemdynamics.org/assets/conferences/2000/PDFs/ducz124p.pdf |last=Duczynski |first=G.A. |year=2000 |title=A Practitioner's Experience of Using Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures |journal=Futures Research Quarterly |volume=16|issue= 3}}

*{{Cite web|title=Morphological analysis as an aid to organisational design and transformation|last=Duczynski|first=G.A.|date=2016|website=*{{Cite web|url=https://globalecco.org/ctx-vol.-5-no.-1-february-2015;jsessionid=963C6228BE8D478E0605E2CFEBA524CF|title=Sustainability of the Afghan Security Forces: A Wicked Problem.|last1=Duczynski|first1=G.A.|last2=Jablonski|first2=J.|date=February 2015|website=globalecco.org|publisher=Counter Terrorism Exchange|access-date=2019-05-05|last3=Huddleston|first3=V|volume=5|issue=1}}

*Duczynski, Guy; dov Bachmann, Sascha; Smith, Matthew; Knight, Charles (August 2023). "Operational and Strategic Progress in Ukraine: Identifying the Condition Changes". Naval Post-Graduate School, Insights, Monterrey. available at: [https://nps.edu/web/ecco/global-ecco-insights ECCO Insights - Global ECCO - Naval Postgraduate School]

*{{Cite journal|last=Jones|first=J. C.|date=July 1981|title=Design methods and theories|journal=Design Studies|volume=2|issue=3|pages=176|doi=10.1016/0142-694x(81)90074-0|issn=0142-694X}}

*{{Citation|last=Levin|first=Mark Sh.|chapter=Modular Systems, Combinatorial Engineering Frameworks|date=2014-09-06|pages=1–10|publisher=Springer International Publishing|isbn=9783319098753|doi=10.1007/978-3-319-09876-0_1|title=Modular System Design and Evaluation|series=Decision Engineering}}

*{{Citation|last=Ritchey|first=Tom|chapter=Modelling Complex Policy Issues with Morphological Analysis|date=2011|pages=31–37|publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg|isbn=9783642196522|doi=10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9_4|title=Wicked Problems – Social Messes}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Shubik|first=M.|date=1969-12-05|title=Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning. Robert U. Ayres. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969. xviii + 238 pp., illus. $12.50|journal=Science|volume=166|issue=3910|pages=1257–1258|doi=10.1126/science.166.3910.1257|issn=0036-8075}}

*{{Citation|last=Wilson|first=Albert|chapter=Epilogue|date=1967|pages=333–338|publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg|isbn=9783642876196|doi=10.1007/978-3-642-87617-2_17|title=New Methods of Thought and Procedure}}

*{{Cite journal |first1=Fritz |last1=Zwicky |last2=Page|first2=T.|date=1969-03-21|title=Discovery, Invention, Research, through the Morphological Approach |publisher=Macmillan |___location=New York|journal=Science|volume=163|issue=3873|pages=1317–1318|doi=10.1126/science.163.3873.1317|issn=0036-8075}}

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