Climate Change Science Program: Difference between revisions

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{{Short description|US Climate Change organization}}

The '''Climate Change Science Program''' ('''CCSP''') was the program responsible for coordinating and integrating research on [[global warming]] by U.S. government agencies from February 2002 to June 2009.<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/infosheets/factsheet1/default.htm Climate Change Science Program] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070207092833/http://www.climatescience.gov/infosheets/factsheet1/default.htm |date=2007-02-07 }} 2006. Overview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Fact Sheet 1. Washington, D.C.DC (January)</ref> Toward the end of that period, CCSP issued 21 separate climate assessment reports that addressed [[Climate Change Science Program#Observations and causes of climate change|climate observations]], changes in the atmosphere, expected [[climate change]], [[Climate Change Science Program#Impacts and adaptation|impacts and adaptation]], and risk management issues. Shortly after President Obama took office, the program's name was changed to U.S. [[Global Change Research Program]] (USGCRP) which was also the program's name before 2002. Nevertheless, the [[Obama Administration]] generally embraced the CCSP products as sound science providing a basis for climate policy.<ref>See [[Climate Change Science Program#Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States|Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States]].</ref> Because those reports were mostly issued after the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC), and in some cases focused specifically on the United States, they were generally viewed within the United States as having an importance and scientific credibility comparable to the IPCC assessments for the first few years of the Obama Administration.<ref>For example, see [https://web.archive.org/web/20091208190419/http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment/downloads/Endangerment%20TSD.pdf Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act: Technical Support Document] 2009. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, D.C.DC (December)</ref>

==The products==

The primary outputs from the CCSP were its strategic plan and 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP), five of which were released on January 16, 2009, the last business day of the Bush Administration.<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php Climate Change Science Program] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070819232331/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php |date=2007-08-19 }} 2009. Information on Synthesis and Assessment Products</ref> The CCSP Strategic Plan of 2003<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/default.htm U.S. Climate Change Science Program] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070215085829/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/default.htm |date=2007-02-15 }}, 2003. Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Washington, D.CDC. See also [http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease24jul2003.htm Press release of 24 July 2003] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070203080618/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease24jul2003.htm |date=3 February 2007 }}</ref> defined five goals:

# Extend knowledge of the Earth’sEarth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed changes (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Observations and causes of climate change|Observations and causes of climate change]]),

# Improve understanding of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’sEarth's climate and related systems (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Changes in the atmosphere|Changes in the atmosphere]])

# Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’sEarth's climate and environmental systems may change in the future (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Climate projections|Climate projections]])

# Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed systems to climate and associated global changes (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Impacts and adaptation|Impacts and adaptation]])

# Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Using information to manage risks|Using information to manage risks]])

The plan also proposed 21 SAP's, each of which were designed to support one of these five goals. The plan was updated in 2008.<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2008/ Climate Change Science Program.] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090513010457/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2008/ |date=2009-05-13 }} 2008 Revised Research Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Washington, D.C.DC</ref>

The following sections discuss the SAP's, grouped according to the five topic areas.

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====Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere (SAP 1.1)====

NOAA released the first of 21 CCSP Synthesis and Assessment reports in May 2006, entitled ''Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences''.<ref name="CSGOV1">[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm CCSP 2006] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070203081058/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm |date=2007-02-03 }} Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Thomas R. Karl, [[Susan Joy Hassol|Susan J. Hassol]], Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray (editors) Asheville, North Carolina: National Climatic Data Center. 164 pp.</ref> The report identified and corrected errors in [[satellite temperature measurements]] and other temperature observations, which increased scientific confidence in the conclusion that lower atmosphere is warming on a global scale: "There is no longer a discrepancy in the rate of global average temperature increase for the surface compared with higher levels in the atmosphere," said the report, "the observed patterns of change over the past 50 years cannot be explained by natural processes alone".<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease2may2006.htm Press release of 2 May 2006] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070203142226/http://climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease2may2006.htm |date=3 February 2007 }} from [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]</ref> The report also said that "all current atmospheric data sets now show global-average warming that is similar to the surface warming. While these data are consistent with the results from climate models at the global scale, discrepancies in the tropics remain to be resolved."<ref name="CSGOV1"/>

====The Arctic and other high latitude areas (SAP 1.2)====

On January 16, 2009 (the last business day of the Bush Administration), USGS released ''Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes''.<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-2/default.php CCSP, 2009.] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090706025403/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-2/default.php |date=2009-07-06 }} Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes. Alley R.B., [[Julie Brigham-Grette|Brigham-Grette J.]], Miller G.H., Polyak L., and White J.W.C. U.S. Geological Survey, Washington D.C., USADC. 270 pp.</ref> According to the USGS press release,<ref>[http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2109&from=rss_home U.S. Geological Survey, Office of Communication] Arctic Heats Up More than Other Places, January 16, 2009</ref> the report shows that:

* The Arctic has recently been warming about as rapidly as it has ever warned throughout the entire record of past Arctic climate.

* The loss of sea ice during summers over the last few decades is highly unusual compared to the last few thousand years. Changes in Earth's orbit alone would have increased summer sea ice.

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====Attribution of the causes of observed climate change (SAP 1.3)====

NOAA released ''Re-Analyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for attribution of causes of observed change''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-3/default.php CCSP, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090704102959/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-3/default.php |date=2009-07-04 }} Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change. Randall Dole, Martin Hoerling, and Siegfried Schubert (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 156 pp.</ref> in December 2008. According to the report, from 1951 to 2006 the yearly average temperature for North America increased by 1.6° Fahrenheit, with virtually all of the warmingsince 1970. During this period, the average temperature has warmed approximately 3.6&nbsp;°F over Alaska, the Yukon Territories, Alberta, and Saskatchewan, but no significant warming occurred in the southern United States or eastern Canada. More than half of the warming of North America is likely (more than 66 percent chance) to have resulted from human activity.

There is less evidence that precipitation is changing. The report found no significant trend in North American precipitation since 1951, although there have been substantial changes from year to year and even decade to decade. Moreover, it is unlikely that a fundamental change has occurred in either how often or where severe droughts have occurred over the continental United States during the past half-century. Nevertheless, drought impacts have likely become more severe in recent decades. It is likely that the impacts have been more severe because the recent droughts have lasted a few years, and because warmer temperatures have created stresses in plants, which make them more vulnerable.

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====Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations (SAP 2.1)====

The [[US Department of Energy]] released the second SAP in July 2007, entitled ''Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application''.<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/default.php CCSP SAP 2.1 web page] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070205034037/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/default.php |date=2007-02-05 }} Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application</ref> This two-volume report explored emission scenarios that could stabilize the [[radiative forcing|net effect]] of [[greenhouse gases]] at four different levels. It also outlined key principles and approaches for developing global change scenarios. The two reports were each written by a subset of the members of the Climate Change Science Program Product Development Advisory Committee, a panel organized under the [[Federal Advisory Committee Act]].<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/finalreport/sap2-1a-final-all.pdf CCSP 2007] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100527213938/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/finalreport/sap2-1a-final-all.pdf |date=2010-05-27 }}. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application. Washington, DDC.C.: United States Department of Energy</ref>

The report's executive summary stated that the emission reductions necessary to stabilize radiative climate forcing would "require a transformation of the global energy system, including reductions in the demand for energy... and changes in the mix of energy technologies and fuels." But the authors found great uncertainty in the price that would be necessary to stabilize climate forcing—as well as the resulting economic cost: " These differences are illustrative of some of the unavoidable uncertainties in long-term scenarios."

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====Other synthesis and assessment products====

In addition to SAP 2.1, CCSP produced three other reports to further the goal of improving quantification of climate forcing:

* NOAA released "North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle"<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/default.php CCSP 2007.] {{webarchive|url=https://archive.istoday/20120805114554/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/default.php |date=2012-08-05 }} The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle. King, A.W., L. Dilling, G.P. Zimmerman, D.M. Fairman, R.A. Houghton, G. Marland, A.Z. Rose, and T.J. Wilbanks (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, USA, 242 pp.</ref> (SAP 2.2) in November 2007.

* NASA released "Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts"<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-3/default.php CCSP 2009] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090507192221/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-3/default.php |date=2009-05-07 }} Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts. Mian Chin, Ralph A. Kahn, and Stephen E. Schwartz (editors). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, D.C., USADC. 128 pp.</ref> (SAP 2.3) on January 16, 2009.

* NOAA released "Trends in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure"<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-4/default.php CCSP, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090706024633/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-4/default.php |date=2009-07-06 }} Trends in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for Ultraviolet

Radiation Exposure. Ravishankara, A.R., M.J. Kurylo, and C.A. Ennis (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 240 pp.</ref> (SAP 2.4) in November 2008.

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===Climate projections===

As provided in the CCSP strategic plan, four SAP's examined issues under CCSP's Goal 3:

* DOE released "Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations."<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-1/default.php CCSP 2008.] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070812000134/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-1/default.php |date=2007-08-12 }} Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations. Bader, D.C.DC, Covey, C., Gutowski, W.J., Held, I.M., Kunkel, K.E., Miller, R.L, Tokmakian, R.T., and Zhang, M.H. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, USA. 124 pp.]</ref> (SAP 3.1) in July 2008.

* NOAA released "Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols."<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-2/default.php CCSP, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070423160211/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-2/default.php |date=2007-04-23 }} Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols. H. Levy II, D.T. Shindell, A. Gilliland, M.D. Schwarzkopf, and L.W. Horowitz, (editor). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, USA, 100 pp.</ref> (SAP 3.2) in September 2008.

* NOAA released "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands."<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-3/default.php CCSP, 2008. ] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070423160111/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-3/default.php |date=2007-04-23 }} Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols. H. Levy II, D.T. Shindell, A. Gilliland, M.D. Schwarzkopf, L.W. Horowitz, (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Washington, DDC.C., USA, 100 pp.</ref> (SAP 3.3) in June 2008.

* USGS released "Abrupt Climate Change."<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/default.php CCSP, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090507192340/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/default.php |date=2009-05-07 }} Abrupt Climate Change. Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.</ref> (SAP 3.4) in December 2008.

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====Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise (SAP 4.1)====

The [[United States Environmental Protection Agency|U.S. Environmental Protection Agency]] released ''Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-1/default.php CCSP 2009] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090507190244/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-1/default.php |date=2009-05-07 }}. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise. James G. Titus (convening lead author). Washington, DC: US Environmental Protection Agency. 320 pp</ref> (SAP 4.1) on January 16, 2009. According to the report's abstract, rising sea level can inundate low areas and increase flooding, coastal erosion, wetland loss, and [[saltwater intrusion]] into estuaries and freshwater aquifers. Much of the United States consists of coastal environments and landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands that will respond to sea-level rise by changing shape, size, or position. The combined effects of sea-level rise and other climate change factors such as storms may cause rapid and irreversible coastal change. Coastal communities and property owners have responded to [[coastal hazards]] by erecting shore protection structures, elevating land and buildings, or relocating inland. Accelerated sea-level rise would increase the costs and environmental impacts of these responses.

Preparing for sea-level rise can be justified in many cases, because the cost of preparing now is small compared to the cost of reacting later. Examples include wetland protection, flood insurance, long-lived infrastructure, and coastal land-use planning. Nevertheless, preparing for sea-level rise has been the exception rather than the rule. Most coastal institutions were based on the [[implicit assumption]] that sea level and shorelines are stable. Efforts to plan for sea-level rise can be thwarted by several institutional biases, including government policies that encourage coastal development, flood insurance maps that do not consider sea-level rise, federal policies that prefer shoreline armoring over soft shore protection, and lack of plans delineating which areas would be protected or not as sea level rises.

A committee set up under the [[Federal Advisory Committee Act]] monitored the progress of SAP 4.1, and questioned several aspects of the final report. The original plan included maps and estimates of wetland loss from a then-ongoing EPA mapping study conducted by James G. Titus,<ref>

{{Cite journal| author=Cornelia Dean | title=Next Victim of Warming: The Beaches | url=https://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0DE6DC1E31F933A15755C0A9609C8B63 | accessdateaccess-date=15 June 2010 | journal=New York Times | date=June 20, 2006 }}</ref> who was also a lead author of SAP 4.1. Early drafts included the maps and results, but the final draft did not. Experts and environmental organizations objected to the deletions. The federal advisory committee also took issue with the maps' removal from SAP 4.1 and recommended that EPA publish the mapping study.<ref>[httphttps://wwwweb.archive.org/web/20090509044134/http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/CESLAC.pdf Report of the Coastal Elevations and Sea Level Rise Advisory Committee] Report to the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, October 2008.</ref> EPA later confirmed that EPA management had altered the report and suppressed the mapping study, although it declined to explain why.<ref>

{{Cite journal| author=Josh Harkinson and Kate Sheppard | title=Coastal Collapse | url=http://www.slate.com/id/2252063 | access-date=June 1, 2010 | journal=Slate | date=April 27, 2010 }}</ref>

====Thresholds in ecosystems (SAP 4.2)====

USGS released ''Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-2/default.php CCSP, 2009] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090706024654/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-2/default.php |date=2009-07-06 }} Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems (Fagre D.B., and C.W. Charles, lead authors) U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior, Washington D.C., USADC. 156 pp.</ref> (SAP 4.2) on January 16, 2009.

A key premise of the report was that an [[ecological threshold]] is the point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem that produces large, persistent and potentially irreversible changes. The report concluded that slight changes in climate may trigger major abrupt ecosystem responses that are not easily reversible. Some of these responses, including insect outbreaks, wildfire, and forest dieback, may adversely affect people as well as ecosystems and their plants and animals. One of the greatest concerns is that once an ecological threshold is crossed, the ecosystem in question will most likely not return to its previous state. The report also emphasized that human actions may increase an ecosystem's potential for crossing ecological thresholds. For example, additional human use of water in a watershed experiencing drought could trigger basic changes in aquatic life that may not be reversible. Ecosystems that already face stressors other than climate change, will almost certainly reach their threshold for abrupt change sooner.

====Effects on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity (SAP 4.3)====

The [[United States Department of Agriculture]] released ''The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-3/default.php CCSP 2008.] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090507192513/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-3/default.php |date=2009-05-07 }} The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity (Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, convening lead authors) U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC., USA, 362 pp</ref> (SAP 4.3) in May 2008. The executive summary includes the following findings.

'''Agriculture'''

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====Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources (SAP 4.4)====

EPA released ''Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-4/default.php CCSP, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090706025437/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-4/default.php |date=2009-07-06 }} Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. Susan H. Julius and Jordan M. West (editors). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA,. 873 pp</ref> (SAP 4.3) in May 2008. The study focuses on national parks, national forests, national wildlife refuges, wild and scenic rivers, national estuaries, and marine protected areas, all of which are protected by the federal

government. The report analyzed how to meet existing management goals set for each protected

area to understand what strategies will increase the resilience of each ecosystem.

EPA concluded that climate change can increase the impact of traditional stressors (such as pollution or [[habitat destruction]]) on ecosystems, and that many existing best management practices to reduce these stressors can also be applied to reduce the impacts of climate change. For example, current efforts to reverse habitat destruction by restoring vegetation along streams also increase ecosystem resilience to climate change impacts, such as greater amounts of pollutants and sediments from more intense rainfall. EPA also concluded that the nation's ability to adapt to climate change will depend on a variety of factors including recognizing the barriers to implementing new strategies, expanding collaboration among ecosystem managers, creatively re-examining program goals and authorities, and being flexible in setting priorities and managing for change.

====''Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use'' (SAP 4.5)====

DOE ''released Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-5/default.php CCSP, 2007] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090706025452/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-5/default.php |date=2009-07-06 }}. Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States. Thomas J. Wilbanks et al. (editors). Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, DC., USA, 160 pp.</ref> (SAP 4.5) in October 2007. The report concludes that the possible impacts of climate change on energy production are important enough to start considering how to adapt. The report's executive summary summarized the report with three questions and answers:

* ''How might climate change affect energy consumption in the United States?'' The research evidence is relatively clear that climate warming will mean reductions in total U.S. heating requirements and increases in total cooling requirements for buildings. These changes will vary by region and by season, but they will affect household and business energy costs and their demands on energy supply institutions. In general, the changes imply increased demands for electricity, which supplies virtually all cooling energy services but only some heating services. Other effects on energy consumption are less clear.

* ''How might climate change affect energy production and supply in the United States?'' The research evidence about effects is not as strong as for energy consumption, but climate change could affect energy production and supply (a) if extreme weather events become more intense, (b) where regions dependent on water supplies for hydropower and/or thermal power plant cooling face reductions in water supplies, (c) where temperature increases decrease overall thermoelectric power generation efficiencies, and (d) where changed conditions affect facility siting decisions. Most effects are likely to be modest except for possible regional effects of extreme weather events and water shortages.

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====''Effects on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems'' (SAP 4.6)====

EPA released ''Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems''.<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-6/default.php CCSP 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090626134006/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-6/default.php |date=2009-06-26 }} Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems. J.L. Gamble (editor). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA. 214pp214 pp</ref> (SAP 4.6) in July 2008. The report was directed by Janet L. Gamble of EPA and written by 28 authors.

According to EPA,<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-6/final-report/sap4-6-EPA-brochure.pdf Environmental Protection Agency 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100527130550/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-6/final-report/sap4-6-EPA-brochure.pdf |date=2010-05-27 }} Findings of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6] Washington, D.CDC. 2 pp.</ref> some of the key conclusions of this report are:

* It is very likely that heat-related illnesses and deaths will increase over coming decades.

* An increase in ozone could cause or exacerbate heart and lung diseases.

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====Impacts on transport and infrastructure (SAP 4.7)====

The [[United States Department of Transportation]] released ''Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure—Gulf Coast Study''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/default.php CCSP, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090706024709/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/default.php |date=2009-07-06 }} Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I. M. J. Savonis, V.R. Burkett, and J.R. Potter (editors). Department of Transportation, Washington, DC, USA,. 445 pp.</ref> (SAP 4.7) in March 2008. The report was prepared by Michael Savonis of the Federal Highway Administration, Joanne Potter (a consultant to DOT), and Virginia Burkett of USGS.

The premise of SAP 4.7 was that climate is changing. Sea levels in the Gulf of Mexico are likely to rise by two to four feet over the next 50 to 100 years from the combination of climate-induced warming and land subsidence. Tropical storms are anticipated to increase in intensity and the number of heavy precipitation events is expected to increase, raising prospects of flooding and structural damage. And the number of very hot days (i.e., >90&nbsp;°F) could rise by 50%.

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===Using information to manage risks===

Three SAP's were prepared to further CCSP's Goal 5

* NASA released "Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts, and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected Sectors and Regions."<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-1/default.php CCSP 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090507192605/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-1/default.php |date=2009-05-07 }} Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts, and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected Sectors and Regions. Washington, DDC.C. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. 90 pp.</ref> (SAP 5.1) in September 2008.

* NOAA released "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking."<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-2/default.php CCSP, 2009] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090507192347/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-2/default.php |date=2009-05-07 }} Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. Granger Morgan, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Henrion, [[David Keith (scientist)|D. Keith]], R. Lempert, S. McBrid, M. Small, T. Wilbanks (editors). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington D.C., USADC. 87 pp.</ref> (SAP 5.2) on January 16, 2009.

* NOAA released "Decision Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data."<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-3/default.php CCSP, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090706024715/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-3/default.php |date=2009-07-06 }} Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, and Anne M. Waple (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 192 pp.</ref> (SAP 5.3) in November 2008.

===''Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States''===

To fulfill a statutory requirement for a [[National Assessment on Climate Change|national assessment]], the CCSP released ''Scientific Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change in the United States''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/ Scientific Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change in the United States, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090513010513/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/ |date=2009-05-13 }}</ref> in May 2008. Shortly thereafter, a team of authors synthesized key findings from the SAP's. In June 2009, CCSP changed its name to United States Global Change Research Program and released the unified synthesis report, entitled ''Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States'' .<ref>[http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/key-findings United States Global Change Research Program] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110721043028/http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/key-findings |date=2011-07-21 }}. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. [[Washington, D.C.DC]] 188 pp</ref> The report had ten key findings which became the bedrock of the Obama Administration's view of the impacts of climate change.

# [[Climate Change Science Program#Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere (SAP 1.1)|''Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced'']]. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.

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# ''Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.'' Many crops show positive responses to elevated responses to carbon dioxide. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production.

# [[Climate Change Science Program#Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise (SAP 4.1)|''Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge'']]. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected.

# [[Climate Change Science Program#Effects on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (SAP 4.6)|''Risks to human health will increase.'']] [[Health impacts of climate change]] are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts.

# ''Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses''. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone.

# ''Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.'' There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected.

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==The organization==

The CCSP was known as US Global Change Research Program until 2002, as authorized by the [[Global Change Research Act of 1990]]. The Bush Administration changed its name to Climate Change Science Program as part of its U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative. The Administration envisioned "a nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems.". President Bush reestablished priorities for climate change research to focus on scientific information that can be developed within 2 to 5 years to assist evaluation of strategies to address global change risks.<ref>[https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010611-2.html Transcript of 11 June 2001 Presidential Rose Garden speech], White House web site</ref> One the CCSP's cornerstones was the creation of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAPs)<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php CCSP Information on Synthesis and Assessment Products web page] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070819232331/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php |date=2007-08-19 }}</ref> to provide information to help policymakers and the public make better decisions.

===Participants===

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===Directors===

* James R. Mahoney<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/bios/mahoney.htm Biographical info for James R. Mahoney] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070704073957/http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/bios/mahoney.htm |date=2007-07-04 }} from CCSP web site</ref> served as the first director of the CCSP and Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere from April 2002 to March 2006.

* William J. Brennan<ref>[http://www.noaa.gov/brennan.html Biographical info for William J. Brennan] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070209080041/http://www.noaa.gov/brennan.html |date=2007-02-09 }} from [[NOAA]] web site</ref> became Acting Director of CCSP in June 2006.<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease19jun2006.htm Press release of 19 June 2006] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070206111708/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease19jun2006.htm |date=6 February 2007 }} from [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]</ref> Brennan remained as the acting director until June 2008 when he was confirmed as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and thereby became the director. (Jane C. Luxton of Virginia had been nominated by [[George W. Bush|President Bush]] in September 2006 for the position, but her nomination was later withdrawn.<ref>[http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/index.php/csw/details/noaa-confirmation-stalled/ Concerns raised about NOAA deputy administrator nominee stall confirmation process] 6 December 2006</ref>)

* Jack A. Kaye became Acting Director of CCSP upon Brennan's retirement from NOAA in January 2009.

===Reviews and criticism===

The Climate Change Science Program operated during an administration that believed that continued scientific investigation was necessary before policies should be implemented.{{Citation needed|date=September 2010}} The CCSP faced the challenge of navigating the narrow path between administration officials who were sceptical of the general scientific consensus about greenhouse gases,<ref>{{Cite news| url=http://www.alternet.org/story/11054/ | work=AlterNet| title= George W. Bush: The Un-science Guy | first= David |last=Corn |date= 2001-06-19| accessdateaccess-date=2006-11-05}},{{Cite web

| url = httphttps://www.cbsnews.com/storiesnews/2002bush-disses-global-warming-report/06/03/tech/main510920.shtml

| title = Bush Disses Global Warming Report

| publisherwork = [[CBS News]]

| date= 2002-06-04

| accessdateaccess-date = 2007-01-22

}}</ref> and ''scientific critics'' who were ''skeptical about almost everything''{{Clarify|reason= is this a quote?|date=September 2010}} that the administration did related to climate change.<ref>E.g. [[James E. Hansen]] and [[Joseph Romm]].</ref> As a result, the CCSP was ''under more scrutiny than most'' federal scientific coordination programs.

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A 2007 NRC review<ref>[http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11934 Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results, 2007]</ref> was more critical. "Discovery science and understanding of the climate system are proceeding well, but use of that knowledge to support decision making and to manage risks and opportunities of climate change is proceeding slowly." The NRC was particularly critical of the program's failure to engage stakeholders or advance scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change on human well-being. Looking to the future of the program, a 2008 NRC report<ref>[http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12595 Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change]</ref> put forward a set of research recommendations very similar to that embodied in the CCSP Strategic Plan revision of 2008.

The Climate Change Scientific Program was occasionally criticized for the alleged suppression of scientific information. In March 2005, [[Rick S. Piltz]] resigned from CCSP charging political interference with scientific reports: "I believe ...that the administration …... has acted to impede forthright communication of the state of climate science and its implications for society." Piltz charged that the Bush Administration had suppressed the previous [[National Assessment on Climate Change]], by systematically deleting references to the report from government scientific documents.<ref>[http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?articleId=9884 Lowball Warming] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110127024047/http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?articleId=9884 |date=2011-01-27 }} Chris Mooney, ''American Prospect'', June 20, 2005</ref> Piltz later complained about political tinkering with the timing of [[Climate Change Science Program#Effects on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (SAP 4.6)|SAP 4.6]],<ref name="USAT1"/> and suppression of sea level rise mapping studies associated with [[Climate Change Science Program#Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise (SAP 4.1)|SAP 4.1]].<ref>[http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/index.php/csw/details/rising_sea_rising_trouble_for_mid-atlantic/ Feds: Climate change to cause 'irreversible' health risks], Rick Piltz and Anne Polansky, ''Climate Science Watch'', June 10, 2009</ref>

==See also==

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* [[Effects of global warming]]

* [[National Assessment on Climate Change]]

*[[Land change science]]

{{Clear}}