Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System: Difference between revisions

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{{Short description|Software used to predict and forecast tropical cyclogenesis and to track tropical cyclones}}

{{good article}}

[[File:Ernesto2006modelspread.png|thumb|350px|This is how forecast model tracks appear within ATCF. This example is from [[Hurricane Ernesto (2006)|2006 Ernesto]]'s first advisory. The [[National Hurricane Center|NHC]] official forecast is light blue, while the storm's actual track is the white line over [[Florida]].]]

The '''Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System''' ('''ATCF''') is a piece of software originally developed to run on a [[personal computer]] for the [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] (JTWC) in 1988,<ref name="ATCF1">{{cite journal|journal=Weather and Forecasting|pages=653–660|date=December 1990|author1=Ronald J. Miller |author2=Ann J. Schrader |author3=Charles R. Sampson |author4=Ted L. Tsui |name-list-style=amp |doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1990)005<0653:TATCFS>2.0.CO;2|title=The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)|volume=5|issue=4|bibcode = 1990WtFor...5..653M |doi-access=free}}</ref> and the [[National Hurricane Center]] (NHC) in 1990. ATCF remains the main piece of [[tropical cyclone forecasting|forecasting]] software used for the [[United States Government]], including the JTWC, NHC, and [[Central Pacific Hurricane Center]]. Other tropical cyclone centers in Australia and Canada developed similar software in the 1990s. The data files with ATCF lie within three decks, known as the a-, b-, and f-decks. The a-decks include forecast information, the b-decks contain a history of center fixes at synoptic hours, and the f-decks include the various fixes made by various analysis center at various times. In the years since its introduction, it has been adapted to [[Unix]] and [[Linux]] platforms.

==Reason for development==

[[image:Typhoon Nabi (Jolina) JTWC's Tracking Chart (2005-09-05 1800Z).gif|thumb|350 px|ATCF image of Nabi's (2005) previous track, forecast track, along with tropical storm, storm, and hurricane-force wind radii depicted, from 18z on September 5]]

The need for a more modernized method for forecasting tropical cyclones had become apparent by the mid-1980s. At that time, the Department of Defense was using [[cellulose acetate|acetate]], [[grease pencilspencil]]s, and disparate computer programs to forecast tropical cyclones.<ref name="ATCF1"/> The ATCF software was developed by the [[Naval Research Laboratory]] for the [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] (JTWC) in [[Monterey, California]] beginning in 1986,<ref name="ATCF2">{{cite journal|journal=[[Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society]]|author=Sampson, Charles R|author2=Schrader, Ann J|title=The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (Version 3.2)|pages=1231–1240|date=June 2000|volume=81|number=6|doi=10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1231:tatcfs>2.3.co;2|bibcode = 2000BAMS...81.1231S |doi-access=free}}</ref> and used since 1988.<ref>{{Cite Duringjournal 1990|last1=Sampson |first1=Charles R. |last2=Schrader |first2=Ann J. |date=2000 |title=The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (Version 3.2) |journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |volume=81 |issue=6 |pages=1231–1240 |doi=10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1231:TATCFS>2.3.CO;2 |jstor=26215160 |bibcode=2000BAMS...81.1231S |s2cid=122126725 |issn=0003-0007|doi-access=free }}</ref> In the 1990s, the system was adapted by the [[National Hurricane Center]] (NHC) for use at the NHC, [[National Centers for Environmental Prediction]], and the [[Central Pacific Hurricane Center]].<ref name="ATCF2"/><ref name="NHC 2">{{cite journal|author18=Tribble, Ahsha N|author1=Rappaport, Edward N|author2=Franklin, James L|author3=Avila, Lixion A|author4=Baig, Stephen R|author5=Beven II, John L|author6=Blake, Eric S|author7=Burr, Christopher A|author8=Jiing, Jiann-Gwo|author9=Juckins, Christopher A|author10=Knabb, Richard D|author11=Landsea, Christopher W|date=April 2009|author12=Mainelli, Michelle|author13=Mayfield, Max|author14=McAdie, Colin J|volume=24|issue=2|author15=Pasch, Richard J|author16=Sisko, Christopher|page=409|author17=Stewart, Stacy R|bibcode=2009WtFor..24..395R|title=Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center|journal=Weather and Forecasting|doi=10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1|citeseerx=10.1.1.207.4667|s2cid=14845745 }}</ref> This provided the NHC with a [[Computer multitasking|multitasking]] software environment which allowed them to improve efficiency and cut the time required to make a forecast by 25% or 1 hour.<ref name="NHC 2"/> ATCF was originally developed for use within [[DOS]], before later being adapted to Unix and Linux.<ref name="ATCF2"/>

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<ref name="ATCF3">{{cite web|url=http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/|title=Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project|author=Jonathan Vigh|date=2013|publisher=University Center for Atmospheric Research|access-date=2013-08-29|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140809223642/http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/|archive-date=2014-08-09|url-status=dead}}</ref>

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==System identification==

Systems within ATCF are identified with the basin prefix (AL – North Atlantic Ocean, CP – Central North Pacific Ocean, EP – North-East Pacific Ocean, IO – North Indian Ocean, SH – Southern Hemisphere, SL – South Atlantic Ocean, WP – North-West Pacific Ocean) and then followed by two digit number between 01 and 49 for active tropical cyclones,<ref name="Navy">{{cite web|url=httphttps://wwwscience.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_webatcf/docs/database/new/abrdeck.html|title=Best Track/Objective Aid/Wind Radii Format|date=2010-06-08|access-date=2014-06-20|author=[[United States Naval Research Laboratory]]–[[Monterey, California|Monterey]], Marine Meteorology Division|publisher=[[United States Navy]]|archive-date=2017-11-06|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171106132459/https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/database/new/abrdeck.html|url-status=live}}</ref> which becomes incremented with each new system, and then the year associated with the system (e.g. EP202015 for [[Hurricane Patricia]]). Numbers from 50 through 79 after the basin acronym are used internally by the basin's respective Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers and [[Regional Specialized Meteorological Center]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/spc_proj/ihc/action-items.pdf|page=14|date=2007|access-date=2014-05-20|title=61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Action Items|author=Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology|publisher=Internet Archive Wayback Machine|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071129132837/http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/spc_proj/ihc/action-items.pdf|archive-date=November 29, 2007}}</ref> Numbers in the 80s are used for training purposes and can be reused. Numbers in the 90s are used for areas of interest,<ref name="ATCF Readme">{{cite web|author=Michael J. Brennan, [[National Hurricane Center]]|url=http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/README|title=Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) Data Files / Text Files|publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|date=2013-05-18}}</ref> sometimes referred to as [[Invest (meteorology)|invests]] or areas of disturbed weather, and are also reused within any particular year. Their status is listed the following ways within the associated data file: DB – disturbance, TD – tropical depression, TS – tropical storm, TY – typhoon, ST – super typhoon, TC – tropical cyclone, HU – hurricane, SD – subtropical depression, SS – subtropical storm, EX – extratropical systems, IN – inland, DS – dissipating, LO – low, WV – tropical wave, ET – extrapolated, and XX – unknown. Times used are in a four digit year, month, day, and hour format.<ref name="Navy"/>

[[image:CHGHUR2014060700z.png|thumb|350px|This is an Atlantic Objective Aid message for a tropical disturbance which was in the Gulf of Mexico on June 7, 2014 at 00z, generated from input into ATCF. Note its identifier is AL902014, meant for a tropical disturbance ([[Invest (meteorology)|Invest]]-90L) in the North Atlantic Ocean during 2014]]

Systems within ATCF are identified with the basin prefix (AL, CP, EP, IO, SH, SL, WP) and then followed by two digit number between 01 and 49 for active tropical cyclones,<ref name="Navy">{{cite web|url=http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/database/new/abrdeck.html|title=Best Track/Objective Aid/Wind Radii Format|date=2010-06-08|access-date=2014-06-20|author=[[United States Naval Research Laboratory]]–[[Monterey, California|Monterey]], Marine Meteorology Division|publisher=[[United States Navy]]}}</ref> which becomes incremented with each new system, and then the year associated with the system (e.g. EP202015 for [[Hurricane Patricia]]). Numbers from 50 through 79 after the basin acronym are used internally by the basin's respective Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers and [[Regional Specialized Meteorological Center]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/spc_proj/ihc/action-items.pdf|page=14|date=2007|access-date=2014-05-20|title=61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Action Items|author=Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology|publisher=Internet Archive Wayback Machine|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071129132837/http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/spc_proj/ihc/action-items.pdf|archive-date=November 29, 2007}}</ref> Numbers in the 80s are used for training purposes and can be reused. Numbers in the 90s are used for areas of interest,<ref name="ATCF Readme">{{cite web|author=Michael J. Brennan, [[National Hurricane Center]]|url=http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/README|title=Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) Data Files / Text Files|publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|date=2013-05-18}}</ref> sometimes referred to as [[Invest (meteorology)|invests]] or areas of disturbed weather, and are also reused within any particular year. Their status is listed the following ways within the associated data file:

==Data formats and locations in ATCF==

DB – disturbance,

The "A deck" contains the official track and intensity forecast, as well as the model guidance, also known as the objective aids. The "B deck" contains the storm's track information at synoptic hours (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 [[UTC]]). The "F deck" contains what are known as position fixes and intensity estimates for the associated tropical cyclone, based on satellite data on the cyclone derived by the [[Dvorak technique]]. The "E deck" contains information regarding position error and probabilistic information regarding the forecast at that time.<ref name="ATCF Readme"/>

TD – tropical depression,

TS – tropical storm,

TY – typhoon,

ST – super typhoon,

TC – tropical cyclone,

HU – hurricane,

SD – subtropical depression,

SS – subtropical storm,

EX – extratropical systems,

IN – inland,

DS – dissipating,

LO – low,

WV – tropical wave,

ET – extrapolated, and

XX – unknown. Times used are in a four digit year, month, day, and hour format.<ref name="Navy"/>

==Similar software used elsewhere==

In the 1990s, other countries developed similar tropical cyclone forecasting software. The [[Bureau of Meteorology]] in Australia developed the Australian Tropical Cyclone Workstation.<ref>{{cite book | title=Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction | publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg | author=Küppers, Andreas N. | year=2013 | pages=210 | isbn=9783642559037}}</ref> The [[Canadian Hurricane Centre]] developed Canadian Hurricane Centre Forecaster's Workstation, which runs on [[Workstation|Unix workstations]].<ref name="ATCF2"/>

{{clear}}

==References==

{{reflist|2}}

==External links==

* [https://jstrack.org/jstrack/ JStrack, Hurricane tracking software for Unix]

[[Category:1988 software]]

[[Category:1988 in computing]]

[[Category:1990 software]]

[[Category:American inventions]]

[[Category:Tropical cyclone meteorology]]