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[[Image:Windowslonghorn.jpg|right]]
== Gray's prediction ==
'''Longhorn''' is [[Microsoft]]'s [[codename]] (for a full list see ''[[Microsoft codenames]]'') for the next version of its [[Microsoft Windows|Windows]] [[operating system]], to follow on from [[Windows XP#Service Pack 3 (pending)|Windows XP SP3]] [http://news.com.com/Reversal+Next+IE+update+divorced+from+Windows/2100-1032_3-5577263.html?tag=nl] and [[Windows Server 2003]]. It was originally expected to ship sometime early in [[2006]] as a minor step between [[Windows XP|Whistler]] and [[Windows Blackcomb]] (Longhorn is a name of a [[sports bar]] at the [[Whistler-Blackcomb]] [[ski resort]]).
I don't think that the prediction will be correct; I think it will be yet another busy hurricane season in 2005...15 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, several landfalling hurricanes...
Gradually, Longhorn assimilated many important new features and technologies of Blackcomb. On [[August 27]], [[2004]], Microsoft announced that they are delaying release of [[WinFS]] so that Longhorn could be released in "a reasonable timeframe" (officially marked as [[December]] of [[2006]]). Two [[beta version]]s have been planned, the first expected to debut in Q2 2005 and the second in Q4 2005, with [[release candidate]]s to be released throughout 2006.
:We make no claims on Dr. Gray's accuracy. He's just noted for making the predictions, and there really isn't anything else to say about the 2005 season at this point. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 23:17, 4 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Longhorn is currently available as a preview release available to [[MSDN|Microsoft Developer Network]] (MSDN) subscribers, and at select Microsoft developer conferences. The preview release is classified as an [[Alpha version|alpha]] version at the moment, and as such its performance and feature sets are not necessarily representative of the release product. As with many products (including all Windows releases since 98) it has since been leaked onto popular [[file sharing]] networks.
== South Atlantic ==
Did we make it through March without any S. Atlantic activity? Quite a difference from the last few years. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 07:03, Apr 6, 2005 (UTC)
==Technologies==
:I haven't heard of anything happening. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 00:56, 7 Apr 2005 (UTC)
Microsoft labels the key new technologies as "The Pillars of Longhorn", which are:
* '''Fundamentals''': new developments to the basic structure of the operating system including the [[Microsoft .NET|.NET]] framework, further support for [[digital rights management]] (DRM), an application deployment engine ("[[ClickOnce]]"), improvements to the installation of applications (Windows Installer/MSI 4.0), and the Trustworthy Computing initiative, previously known as Pallidium, see also ([[trusted computing]]).
* '''[[Avalon (API) | Avalon]]''': a new [[user interface]] subsystem and [[Application programming interface|API]] based on [[XML]], .NET, and [[vector graphics]], which will make use of [[3D computer graphics]] hardware and [[Direct3D]] technologies. See [[Windows Graphics Foundation]].
* '''[[Indigo (messaging system) | Indigo]]''': a service-oriented messaging system to allow programs to interoperate as part of the .NET framework.
* '''[[WinFX]]''': a new API to allow access to these new features, replacing the current "Win32" API (see [[Windows API]]).
It is worth noting that Avalon, Indigo, and WinFX are technologies that will be made available to [[Windows XP]] and [[Windows Server 2003]] as well, and are therefore not technologies to be exclusive to Longhorn, but rather developed in time for the Longhorn release, to be incorporated in that operating system. This doesn't imply coming visual changes to these operating systems though, as Aero will still be exclusive to Longhorn. The reason for [[backporting]] these technologies is to allow an easier introduction to these technologies to developers and end users.
March 26th Microsoft released a Community Preview featuring both Avalon and Indigo to enable developers to experiment with the new technologies without running the Alpha version of Longhorn. Due to many requests it was released to the general public and is available at Microsoft's website [http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyID=85ab132b-f1aa-4422-b053-272d79863013&DisplayLang=en].
== Pacific ==
Just to let y'all know I've started the sister page, [[2005 Pacific hurricane season]]. Need to find pre-season forecasts... not sure where. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 20:22, Apr 8, 2005 (UTC)
==Features==
:I don't know that there are any. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 13:31, 9 Apr 2005 (UTC)
Additionally, Longhorn will include many other new features.
===Aero===
::Well I have some for 2004, but I'm not sure where I got them from. :P --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 17:57, Apr 11, 2005 (UTC)
Longhorn will include a completely re-designed user interface, code-named ''Aero''. The new interface is intended to be cleaner and more aesthetically pleasing than previous Windows interfaces. The most visible addition to the interface is the ''sidebar'', an area at the side of the screen consisting of ''tiles'' which display dynamic information about whatever window is currently in the foreground, which is essentially an extension of the "system tray" on the Windows [[task bar]]. Note that the sidebar had been removed as part of the WinHEC 2005 release (Build 5048).
===Search===
== Preseason thoughts ==
Longhorn will feature a new search engine which will allow for instant display of results for a given search. This is in contrast to the search engine of Windows XP, which can take several minutes to display results. The Longhorn search will allow you to add multiple filters to continually refine your search (Such as "File contains the word 'example'"). There will also be saved searches which will act as [[Virtual Folders]], where opening a folder will execute a specific search automatically and display the results as a normal folder. The search will also feature other usability improvements. The Longhorn search is actually built on an expanded and improved version of the indexing service for the search in Windows XP.
===Metro===
I'm going to predict that there will be 2 or 3 BIG storms this year.
Metro is the codename for Microsoft's next generation document format, which is based on XML. It is similar in many ways to [[Adobe Systems]]' [[PDF]]. Metro is intended to allow users to view, print, and archive files without the original program that created it. The name Metro also refers to the print path in Longhorn. With Metro, documents can remain in the same format from the time they are created to the time they are printed. Microsoft states that Metro will provide better fidelity to the original document by using a consistent format for both screen and print output.
While many analysts suspect Metro is intended to be a "PDF-killer," Microsoft insists that they are not attempting to duplicate all the functionality of the PDF. For example, at the time of this writing, Metro is not planned to have the capabilities for dynamic documents.
Another interesting note: in each of the last 4 seasons, the "I" storm has been retired - I wonder if '''Irene''' will be one of the big ones of 2005? Also, no "B" storm has been retired since 1991, no "D" storm since 1990 and no "E" storm since 1985. If that trend continues then Bret, Dennis and Emily won't be real threats...
--------------------------------------------------------------
Bret about got his butt retired on two occations already: In 1993, Tropical Storm Bret killed over 100 people in Venezuela, but I guess the weasalish (affectionate term) [[World Meteorological Organization|WMO]] was bashful about retiring a tropical storm. In 1999, Hurricane Bret hit Texas as a Category 4, but it hit the least populated area on the entire Texas coast.
===Other Features===
Emily has been the strongest storm of the season twice out of the four times she's been used. She hit Hispaniola in 1987 as a strong Category 3, but by some miraculous slight-of-hand, killed only 3 people and caused $65 million in damage. The other time (1993), she stayed out to sea, but reached Category 3 strength.
* Full support for the "[[NX bit|NX]]" (No-Execute) feature of processors. This feature, present in [[AMD]]'s [[AMD64]] architecture, as well as [[Intel]]'s [[EM64T]] Architecture, can flag certain parts of memory as containing data instead of executable code, which prevents overflow errors from resulting in arbitrary code execution. This should not be confused with [[trusted computing]] facilities provided by a so-called ''[[Fritz-chip]]''.
* Built-in [[DVD]] recording capabilities, including [[Mount Rainier (packet writing)|Mt. Rainier]] support.
* A new installation program that will install Longhorn in about 15 minutes (which is present in alpha build 4074 of Windows Longhorn).
* Native Raw Image support (As used by most digital cameras).
* Native, embedded RSS support, with developer API.
* Some level of file encryption support, which will prevent unauthorized viewing of files on stolen laptops/hard drives.
* The "My" prefixes will be dropped, so "My Documents" will just be "Documents", "My Computer" will just be "Computer", etc.
==Technologies/Features Delayed until future release==
-[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane entusiast]]
* '''[[WinFS]]''' (short for either ''Windows Future Storage'' or ''Windows File System''): a combined [[relational database]] and [[filesystem]], based on the next version of [[Microsoft SQL Server|SQL Server]] (codenamed ''Yukon''). Working on top of [[NTFS]], it will provide abilities to represent objects and their relationships, rather than just a hierarchy of files and folders. The removal of WinFS from Windows Longhorn was announced in August 2004, and is expected to be released as an update to Longhorn, entering beta stages at about the same time as Longhorn is released, but also will be ported to Windows XP to help end users along with the transition phase to Longhorn. Microsoft's promotion of this technology has spurred the recent trend towards [[desktop search]] tools.
* '''[[MSH (shell)|Monad]]''' A new [[command-line interface]] called ''[[MSH (shell)|MSH]]'', and codenamed ''Monad'' will not be fully implemented in Longhorn, but will exist in it to some extent. It plans to combine the Unix [[pipes and filters]] philosophy with that of [[object-oriented programming]].
:You're right, Emily actually was supposed to hit the North Carolina in 1993, but turned away at the last minute as a 120 mph hurricane (she undoubtedly would have been done for in 1993 had she came ashore), and Bret in 1999 was a rare event - a rather compact storm hitting in the middle of nowhere (it would have been like Charley hitting right there).
==Graphics hardware requirements==
Another note: Barring a storm with 0 tropical storms (not going to happen), Arlene will be used for the 9th time, passing Frances (now retired). The earliest that another name could catch up is 2012, and that would only happen if Arlene is retired herself after 2005 (would likely need to either be a late-starting season, or be a real rainmaker for a June or early July storm to be retired) '''and''' Florence stays on after 2006 (not a given, since that would likely be a mid-season storm). No other names are even close.
Longhorn's graphics requirements are defined in relation to the different desktop experiences.
===Aero Glass===
True, but if you include different spellings of the same name then "Debby" will tie it in 2006. "Debby" has been used four times ('82,'88,'94,and '00)and "Debbie" has been used four times ('57,'61,'65,and '69).
This graphics mode adds support for 3D graphics, animation and visual special effects in addition to the features offered by Aero Express.
*Intended for mainstream and high-end graphics cards.
*At least 64 MB of graphics memory, 128 MB recommended, or 256 MB for 1600x1200+.
*At least 32 [[bits per pixel]].
*3D hardware acceleration with capabilities equal to [[DirectX]] 9.
*A memory bandwidth of 2 GB / second.
*Capable of drawing ~1.5M triangles / second, one window being ~150 triangles.
*A graphics card that uses AGP 4X or PCI Express 8-lane bus.
Although this may appear expensive by today's standards, it is likely that such a configuration will be entry-level or lower by Longhorn's release.
===Aero Diamond===
[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast]] - [[User talk: E. Brown|Squawk Box]] 23:51, 28 May 2005 (UTC)
A graphics mode customized for the Longhorn Media Center Edition, and will not be made available in the other editions.
===Aero Express===
== New layout on NHC ==
The lesser Aero visual experience offering only the basic visual improvements introduced by Longhorn, such as composition based DPI scaling.
Looks like www.nhc.noaa.gov has a new layout.. not sure if I like it. Have to wait for the first storm to see how it really looks. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 09:00, May 1, 2005 (UTC)
*Intended for mainstream or lower-end graphics cards.
:Links! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov. Indeed, wait and see. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">[[user:tomf688|tomf688]]</font><sup>([[User talk:Tomf688|talk]])</sup> 15:24, May 1, 2005 (UTC)
*Uses the Avalon Desktop Composition window manager.
*A Longhorn Driver Display Model (LDDM) driver is a requirement.
===To Go===
::Easier to get an "at a glance" view of a storm with the thumbnails of the track forecast chart and the wind forecast chart right on the main page. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 18:07, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
The new Longhorn look & feel without any visual special effects, similar to the visual style Luna of Windows XP in that it resembles merely an application [[skin (computing)|skin]]. As with Luna, no additional hardware requirements compared to the classic Windows interface.
*A simple option for consumer upgrades, and mobile / low-cost devices.
*No additional requirements compared to the lesser Classic mode.
*Fallback mode in case the hardware requirements for Aero aren't met.
===Classic===
== Adrian ---> Arlene? ==
The most basic user interface offered by Longhorn, which is also seen in [[Windows 2000]], or [[Windows XP]] with its visual style Luna deactivated.
* An option for corporate deployments and upgrades.
* Requires Windows XP Display Driver Model (XPDM) or LDDM drivers.
* No graphics card hardware requirements exceeding those of Windows XP.
==References==
The forecast suggests that Tropical Storm Adrian in the Eastern Pacific will cross Central America and continue on in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. If it keeps or regains tropical storm strength, will it be renamed Arlene if such happens?
*[http://www.microsoft.com/whdc/device/display/graphics-reqs.mspx Graphics Hardware and Drivers for "Longhorn"] – Version as of April, 2004; retrieved June 10, 2004
*Microsoft (August 27, 2004). [http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2004/Aug04/08-27Target2006PR.asp Microsoft Announces 2006 Target Date for Availability Of "Longhorn"]. Press Release. Retrieved November 30, 2004.
==External links==
:Yes. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 17:00, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
*[http://msdn.microsoft.com/longhorn Microsoft Longhorn Developer Center] -- Developer information on Longhorn at [[MSDN]].
**[http://msdn.microsoft.com/Longhorn/understanding/pillars/default.aspx The Pillars of Longhorn]
**[http://longhorn.msdn.microsoft.com Microsoft Longhorn SDK] -- Documentation of the Longhorn APIs made public so far at [[MSDN]].
*[http://www.winsupersite.com/longhorn/ Paul Thurrott's SuperSite for Windows] -- Detailed information regarding Longhorn, including screenshots.
**[http://www.winsupersite.com/reviews/pdc2003.asp PDC 2003 Section] -- Information regarding Longhorn build 4051, released at PDC 2003.
*[http://www.aci.com.pl/mwichary/guidebook/interfaces/windows/longhorn GUIdebook: Windows Longhorn Gallery] - A website dedicated to preserving and showcasing Graphical User Interfaces
*[http://www.longhornblogs.com/ Longhorn Blogs] -- Non-corporate, community-based initiative of Microsoft's next version of Windows
*[http://www.longhornbuzz.com/ Longhorn Buzz] -- Non-corporate, community-based forums dedicated to Microsoft's next version of Windows
*[http://www.windowslonghorn.net/ Longhorn News] -- Non-corporate, community-based news site, dedicated to Longhorn news.
**[http://www.windowslonghorn.net/modules.php?set_albumName=WindowsBetas&op=modload&name=gallery&file=index&include=view_album.php Gallery Section] -- Screenshots from development versions of Longhorn.
{{History of Windows}}
Right. I wonder if it ever happened, that a storm "crossed over" in that direction into the Gulf and regained storm status. [[User:Awolf002|Awolf002]] 17:32, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
[[Category:Microsoft Windows|Longhorn]]
:For reasons that should be fairly clear, the reverse (Atlantic->Pacific) is more common than this case. There has been one instance since storm naming began, 1989's Tropical Storm Allison, which formed out of the remnants of Hurricane Cosme. The only other occurrence on record was in 1949. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 17:49, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
[[de:Microsoft Windows Longhorn]]
[[es:Windows Longhorn]]
Cool, thanks! Let's hope this one just fizzles! [[User:Awolf002|Awolf002]] 18:16, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
[[it:Windows Longhorn]]
[[ja:Longhorn]]
Uuhhh... I read in one of the discussions on the NHC site that re-naming will depend on its tropical status. If it stays a tropical storm, it will keep its original name. If it fizzles and then some wave/remnant action create a new storm in the Carribean, it will have the Atlantic name. Does that jive with you guys? Here is the link [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/ep012005.discus.007.shtml?] and the quote
[[nl:Windows Longhorn]]
:ONLY IF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
[[pl:Longhorn]]
[[User:Awolf002|Awolf002]] 20:10, 19 May 2005 (UTC)
[[pt:Windows Longhorn]]
:That makes sense; it's just extremely unlikely. '''In fact, based on what I know, it's never happened'''. When 2004A Earl crossed over and became 2004P Frank, (Hey, I actually like that kind of ID number), it changed names because it became a tropical depression. Central America, like Hispaniola, is death to cyclones, the mountains shred them to pieces. It's extremely unlikely that Adrian will survive the transition. I would wager a storm would have to be at least category 3 to survive the American spine. And thanks for pointing that out, Awolf :) --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 20:50, May 19, 2005 (UTC)
[[ru:Windows Longhorn]]
[[sv:Windows Longhorn]]
:History contradicts that quote. 1996's [[Hurricane Cesar]] and 1988's [[Hurricane Joan]] both crossed into the Pacific while still at tropical storm strength, and both were renamed (to Douglas and Miriam). The intro to the [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1996douglas.html Preliminary Report] on Cesar states that all such storms are renamed. This argument could obviously be rendered moot by a change in practice in the last nine years. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 00:27, 20 May 2005 (UTC)
[[zh:Windows Longhorn]]
Isn't it also ironic that they both kept the same gender? (Cesar to Douglas, Joan to Miriam).
[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast]] - [[User talk: E. Brown|Squawk Box]] 23:42, 28 May 2005 (UTC)
:To quote [[Bender Bending Rodriguez|Bender]], "that's not ironic, it's just coincidental." -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 06:31, 29 May 2005 (UTC)
== Wikinews ==
(crossposted from the pacific page)
OK, folks, this is a warmup for the much more important (at least as far as clicks are concerned, no one in Central America right now should take this as a slight. I mean for Wikipedia, for publicity, for getting our name out) Atlantic season. Last year, we either didn't have Wikinews, or none of us felt it up to snuff to either make articles for it, or link them if they did exist.
I'm making Wikinews for every major milestone along Adrian's course, and plan to make them for each subsequent storm, regardless of impact. (Well, I mean, I would make one about the formation of Karl, and maybe the dissipation, and that's it. And time will tell if this is necessary)
'''ANYWAY'''.
So far, I've linked every story (two so far) under Adrian. Now, this could get long for a large storm, but then again, a large storm will get its own article (Adrian will likely deserve one before the week is out) and thus have room for a long list of links.
Now imagine if we have another Hurricane Jeanne or Ivan this year, and everyone who comes to look at the article sees links to Wikinews articles.
I would daresay it's the best advertising Wikinews can get. We all know how powerful the storm articles were last year; the Hurricane Frances article was, IIRC (And I could be very wrong), for a while, the most read article on Wikipedia. If we even only get 1% of clickthroughs to Wikinews, that could be a huge boon for that site; maybe they're better off, I don't know, I've been remiss in my duties there.
My point is, let's see how this style works here, and I suggest we implement it on the Atlantic page. It couldn't hurt. Yes, the Wikinews article at present is mostly a clone of the Wikipedia article, but the differences are, the Wikinews article has the ability to expand beyond that, especially with '''local reports''' which would be just awesome. Also, the Wikinews article will still be there - so even after this article says "Adrian dissipated on this and that date", there will still be articles chronicling its formation, strengthening, strike, and effects. So while Wikipedia remains up to date, Wikinews serves as a useful archive outside of the history page.
Any comments? --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 18:29, May 19, 2005 (UTC)
:Since Adrian is only a Category 1 storm now, and Pacific retirements are much rarer, it should be [[Hurricane Adrian (2005)]]. If it reforms into Arlene, then [[Tropical Storm Arlene (2005)]] or [[Hurricane Arlene (2005)]] should redirect to that page. (Unless Arlene makes a name for herself)
::1) Please sign your comments with <nowiki>~~~~</nowiki>.
::2) I disagree. Until I have another Adrian article, there's no reason to quantify it with a year. Furthermore, Pacific retirements are much rarer because deadly storms are much rarer - that doesn't mean a deadly storm has less chance of being retired. As for what happens if Adrian survives to be Arlene, we should discuss that, and have a plan ready just in case. It's all moot if neither storm warrants their own article; then we can just redirect the names to the proper season, and then cross-link. If one or the other, or god forbid BOTH, warrant an article, then we have to figure out the logistics. if Adrian becomes worthy, then Arlene should redirect to the Atlantic page with a short mention that it used to be Adrian, unless Arlene is similarly notable, in which case it might be better to ''merge'' the two articles into some "Hurricane Adrian/Hurricane Arlene" amalgam - but thankfully, we don't need to cross that bridge til we reach it. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 08:08, May 20, 2005 (UTC)
:::Well, Adrian has rendered this moot by letting itself get torn apart by the terrain. Between the shear the NHC is talking about, and the low Caribbean water temperatures, it's not looking like we'll have to deal with it this year. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 17:37, 20 May 2005 (UTC)
==Let the Games Begin==
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season begins quietly today. Much of Florida still lies in ruins. Destruction on this scale has not been seen since Hurricane Andrew. Those affected by Andrew, however had the fortune in their misfortune to have two quiet seasons follow so they could rebuild. The victims of Nature's merciless quartet, as well as those of rainy Gaston, are not expected to have the same blessing. In fact, usually after a bad storm, the following season is quiet. (Fran in '96 followed by a quiet '97, Allen in '80 followed by a quiet '81 and '82, and plenty of other examples). Nature's lack of pity, mercy, and utter relentlessness have rarely been so brutally displayed. I just don't see how Florida could take another bad season.
[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast]] - [[User talk: E. Brown|Squawk Box]] 17:08, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
: Hey, I live in [[Florida]], and we're hardy enough for this! And, btw, I heard of a popular movement to replace the current state flag with nice rectangular piece of blue tarp. Hah!! [[User:Awolf002|Awolf002]] 17:28, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::At least then the flag would have some actual practical use. That, and kids would be able to draw it. Seriously, what are people thinking when they put a detailed state seal on the state flag? Will no one think of the third graders? -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 22:44, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
:I ''was'' going to say something about how bad seasons aren't really followed by quiet seasons, but then I looked at the 1950-2004 [[Accumulated Cyclone Energy|ACE]] graph. Up until the mid-1990s, it's fairly well true. Until then, almost every season significantly above the normal level was followed by a much less active season.
:So, yes, 1996 was followed by the very quiet 1997 season, but ''1995'' was the second most active season on record. The 1998 season featured the terrible [[Hurricane Georges|Georges]] and the horrendous [[Hurricane Mitch|Mitch]], but was followed by 1999, the season of [[Hurricane Floyd|Floyd]] and [[Hurricane Lenny|Lenny]]. And let's not forget that 2003 was an active year too.
:Also remember that a relatively inactive season can still be an extremely destructive one. [[Hurricane Andrew|Andrew]], anyone? And even [[Tropical Storm Allison|apparently minor tropical storms]] can be incredibly destructive. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 22:44, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::Not to mention that many MAJOR hurricanes are not destructive - usually at least once a year a strong Category 3 or 4 hurricane will not threaten land (can't remember the last time a Category 5 hurricane never touched land - the last storm of Cat 5 intensity to not be retired was Edith (1971) and that still made landfall as a Cat 5)...
::A hurricane season could have only 1 storm forming, but that storm could be a Cat 5 hurricane hitting a major city head-on (and obviously catastrophic), and likewise, a season could have 20 storms but (by luck) no major landfalls...[[User:24.226.10.99|24.226.10.99]] 23:55, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
The only reason Jeanne did not do as much damage as the other Florida hurricanes last year was because by the time Jeanne got to Florida, there wasn't much left to destroy. With reference to an earlier comment, the 1999 season did not affect the hardest hit areas from the 1998 season. The most affected was the Lesser Antilles, hard-hit by Georges in 1998, it was affected by Hurricane Jose and further devastated by Lenny in 1999. This example merely proves that bad seasons ''can'' happen in succession. Fortunately, they are infrequent. Nor has it been really proven that this season will be another bad one for Florida. Arlene looks like it's headed toward Mississippi on a track eerily similar to that of Camille. We just have to wait and see.
[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast]] - [[User talk: E. Brown|Squawk Box]] 18:40, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)
==June==
=== Week 1===
It seems there's some stuff trying to happen. That non-tropical ''thing'' in the eastern Gulf just isn't going away, and now they're saying it's developing low pressure just inside the Caribbean. The Gulf's still a bit cool for tropical activity, being just barely over the magic 80°F (26.5°C) mark [http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A16.html]. However, the Caribbean is about five degrees F warmer. Statistically, [http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns_prob_june.gif the most likely place to have a tropical cyclone in June] is right where all that activity is happening, and there's a smaller box of activity where that tropical wave is entering the Caribbean.
If you're interested in that "recently installed NOAA buoy" mentioned in the outlook, take a look at the [http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml NDBC Western Caribbean map]. Click on the label for the buoy's observations. It's the only one there, so it's not hard to find. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 22:17, 3 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Something's brewing. It's in the Tropical Weather Outlook, and tomorrow's aircraft reconnaissance plan has them preparing for the first tropical depression of the season. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 20:25, 7 Jun 2005 (UTC)
:And now the discussion: "Possible tropical cyclone is within 36 hours from 15N-20N between 82W-87W." -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 00:36, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::Aye, 90L INVEST has been tagged. Based on preliminaries, it looks like it will head north to the Gulf Coast; at what strength (a vague area of thunderstorms or more), we don't yet know. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 18:00, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)
::: And it's now Tropical Depression One. --[[User:Goobergunch|Goobergunch]]|[[User talk:Goobergunch|?]] 21:31, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::::Since 1) There are ALREADY watches up [Cuba] and 2) It is likely to become Tropical Storm Arlene, would it be premature to make a Storm section for TD1? --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 22:11, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)
Premature, yes. While the NHC is ''forecasting'' it to strengthen, it could also do just the opposite and dissipate. Just wait a few more days and see what happens. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">[[user:tomf688|tomf688]]</font><sup>([[User talk:Tomf688|talk]])</sup> 22:17, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)
:Agreed. Wikipedia can wait for stuff to happen. However, Golbez wanted to do the Wikinews thing this year, and first system of the season would fit well over there. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 22:18, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::It's officially Tropical Storm Arlene now. This is the ninth time Arlene has been used, regaining the title of the most used name (which it will hold for a while)[[User:24.226.10.99|24.226.10.99]] 16:02, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Hey, not so fast there chief. If you include different spellings of the same name, Debby/Debbie has been used 8 times. When Debby forms next season it will tie Arlene. By the way, if anyone cares, Arlene formed on my sixteenth birthday. Quite a treat for a hurricane freak.
[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast]] - [[User talk: E. Brown|Squawk Box]] 18:24, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)
===Week 2===
Current subjects: Arlene, possibly bringing heavy rainfall to Cuba and the Gulf Coast, and just-tagged 91L INVEST, well northeast of Puerto Rico. As for Wikinews, I'm better at writing wire reports and headlines than at writing articles, but I think Wikinews might be able to handle itself. Hopefully. If not, I can write up a quick blurb. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 17:33, Jun 9, 2005 (UTC)
:I'm not that familiar with Wikinews policies, but I wrote up [[wikinews:First tropical storm of 2005 season forms in the Atlantic]] based on the lates advisory. --[[User:Goobergunch|Goobergunch]]|[[User talk:Goobergunch|?]] 17:54, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::Heh, whoops, I just wrote [[Wikinews:Tropical Storm Arlene forms, threatens Cuba, U.S.]]. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 18:02, Jun 9, 2005 (UTC)
Check out [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/102042.shtml forecast/advisory 10] on Arlene:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
That's the distance of windspeeds from the center. Check out how empty the southwest quadrant is; if this storm had an eye, it would virtually be open to clear skies in the southwest. This almost resembles a subtropical storm. Nearly all of the strength is in the northeast.--[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 21:08, Jun 10, 2005 (UTC)
:The storm's been under heavy shear since before it formed. What's amazing is that it's managed to make it almost to hurricane strength with its top blown off (and it'll probably get the extra 4mph in the next few hours). -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 01:40, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::Not to mention the fact that the soon-to-be-Hurricane Arlene has no profile at all on its west side...meaning areas to the west of the "eye" will likely get only wind, not much rain...she is just trying to concentrate her energy in one small area! This reminds me of the "forgotten" [[1995 Atlantic hurricane season|Allison]] of early [[June]] [[1995]] (in between the two devastating Allisons) which somehow made it up to Category 1 hurricane strength on nearly an identical path. The intense shear and dry air could mean it could become a hurricane in open water but return to being a tropical storm at landfall. [[User:24.226.10.99|24.226.10.99]] 04:23, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)
:::They pretty well always drop to tropical storm strength at some point in approaching/striking land, it's just a matter of time. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 07:52, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Arlene ain't a hurricane yet, but it still has a chance to before it hits land but it's running out of water. An eye is now visible on the satellite pictures so it looks like Arlene is trying to get those 4 stinking miles per hour, but with hurricane warnings now out, the people of Gulf Shores probably see it as a hurricane anyway. Florida tore Arlene's tail off. Now she's just an ugly little fireball.
[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast]] - [[User talk: E. Brown|Squawk Box]] 16:50, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)
The HPC has finally gone quiet on Arlene, since it took so long I felt it might have warranted mention on the timeline. Also, we have 92L.INVEST southest of Hispaniola. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 22:18, Jun 13, 2005 (UTC)
:You mean southwest. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 23:45, 13 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::"est" is vague. :) And yeah, I did. And do any of you else disagree with Awolf's addition of a bold summary to Arlene? I won't revert it without discussing, but it seemed a bit out of place. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 02:16, Jun 14, 2005 (UTC)
:::I read that as "east", heh. Guess neither one of our brains was working quite right. I'm feeling iffy about the mini-summary, but not enough to remove it. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 06:29, 14 Jun 2005 (UTC)
:Guys, not sure how you identified me as source for that "bold summary", my history says it was [[User:24.226.10.99|24.226.10.99]] :)). But whatever, I also think it looks ugly. We should remove it. [[User:Awolf002|Awolf002]] 13:18, 14 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::Hey, hey, don't get uppity just because you don't remember logging out and doing it. *looks around innocently* And I meant Tomf, not Awolf; the similar capitalization and the inclusion of an "f" in both your names confused my exhausted mind. Oh, wait, you say that 22:18 is UTC, and it was really 6pm? Oh. ... LEAVE ME ALONE
::But, erm, anyway. Yeah. Tomf. =p An IP added it but I only saw Tomf's improvements. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 15:52, Jun 14, 2005 (UTC)
:::Wasn't me; I just clarified it a bit. I feel the date range for the storm is a good addition, but not sure if "maximum sustained winds" is necessary. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">[[user:tomf688|tomf688]]</font><sup>([[User talk:Tomf688|talk]])</sup> 20:17, Jun 14, 2005 (UTC)
::::Some people seem to have an unhealthy "record" mentality when it comes to the maximum sustained winds. The important wind speed numbers for the vast majority of people are the ones associated with landfalls. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 20:37, 14 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Re: 92L.INVEST; Tuesday's Hurricane Hunter flight (AFXXX 01BBA INVEST) was cancelled, and the Plan of the Day for Wednesday has no flights. NHC has bet on it not doing anything significant for the next day or so. -- [[User:Cyrius|Cyrius]]|[[User talk:Cyrius|✎]] 20:37, 14 Jun 2005 (UTC)
===Week 3===
While 92L.INVEST seems to be fading, we have 93L.INVEST in the [[Bay of Campeche]]. I didn't keep up with the invests last year; did last June (which as we know was devoid of tropical storms) have this many invests? Three so far? --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 16:58, Jun 15, 2005 (UTC)
: Stupid question: What's an INVEST? Are you talking about [[tropical wave]]s? [[User:Awolf002|Awolf002]] 17:08, 15 Jun 2005 (UTC)
::I suppose; it's an official designation. 91L.INVEST became 01L.ARLENE. L = North Atlantic, I guess L means Low. S = Southern Hemisphere, E = East Pacific, W = West Pacific, C = Central Pacific, A and B = Indian Ocean. These designations are given by the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) [http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi]. IIRC, [[Cyclone Catarina]] is "officially" known as 50L.NONAME. [http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_display.cgi?YEAR=2004&MO=Jun&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=50L.NONAME&PROD=track_vis&TYPE=ssmi&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=all&ACTIVES=NONE] Invests are numbered 90 and up, and named storms are numbered sequentially. Tropical depressions seem to be numbered equal to their TD number. (Looking at the 2004 list, I'm not sure how much rhyme or reason there is to this system, but the FNMOC page is the best "early warning" you'll find for tropical storms worldwide) --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 17:39, Jun 15, 2005 (UTC)
:Interesting URL! Did you see the note add the bottom: "''This is a Department of Defense computer system. This computer system, including all related equipment, networks and network devices (specifically including Internet access), are provided only for authorized U.S. government use.''". Oopps... [[User:Awolf002|Awolf002]] 17:43, 15 Jun 2005 (UTC)
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