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:''"Nessie" redirects here; for the cryptography research project, see [[NESSIE]].''
''This article is about good and bad fortune. There is also: [[Luck, Volhynia]], a town in [[Ukraine]], and [[Luck, Wisconsin]], a village in the [[USA]].''
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'''Luck''' may be analysed from three viewpoints: rational, social, and spiritual.
==Rational viewpoint==
[[Image:Lochnessmonster.jpg|framed|The famous "Surgeon's photo" hoax of the Loch Ness monster]]
As related to the occurrences of actual events considered to be of low [[probability]] in a [[mathematics|mathematical]] or [[statistics|statistical]] sense. A [[rationalist]] approach would lead to the conclusion that such matters as whether or not someone bore a victim ill will would have no bearing upon (for example) that person being hit by a loose brick falling from a decrepit building. It was only due to a remote statistical probability that the brick's four [[Dimension|dimensional]] [[Spacetime|space-time]] path intercepted the 4D path of the victim's head (this was an actual occurrence in [[San Francisco]]). In a case like this both rationalists and spiritualists would likely say that the victim was ''unlucky''. In an example of good luck, a person winning a [[lottery]] would generally be considered lucky, although a rationalist might point out that there was bound to be a winner sooner or later, and there was actually nothing lucky about ''someone'' winning - it was merely a [[probability|probabilistic]] event. It is doubful that the winner would agree with that analysis, however.
==Social viewpoint==
The '''Loch Ness Monster'''—sometimes called '''Nessie'''—is a [[animal|creature]] or group of creatures said to live in [[Loch Ness]], a deep freshwater [[loch]] (lake) near the city of [[Inverness]] in northern [[Scotland]]. Nessie is generally categorized as a [[lake monster]].
As a [[Society|social]] phenomenon, there is much truth in the saying "what goes around, comes around" (see [[karma]]). On the one hand, those who are kind and generous to others are usually perceived as open and accepting and so more likely to be freely offered assistance from others. They are also more likely to also be able to ask for and receive help from others in time of need. On the other hand, those who are asocial or anti-social are less likely ask for assistance or to be offered assistance by others. The open, generous and cheerful person is more likely to be classified by others as lucky, while the curmudgeon is more likely to be considered by others or to consider him/her self unlucky.
Along with [[Bigfoot]] and [[Yeti]], Nessie is perhaps the best-known mystery in [[cryptozoology]]. Most mainstream [[scientist]]s and other experts find current evidence supporting Nessie unpersuasive, and regard such reports as [[hoax]]es or [[misidentification]] of mundane creatures.
==Supernatural viewpoint==
==History of sightings==
There is also sometimes considered to be a [[supernatural]] bias towards experiencing events of good or ill fortune. In this sense some believe that one's own or another's good or bad luck can be influenced through spiritual means or by performing certain rituals or by avoiding certain (from a rational viewpoint non-relevant) situations. [[Voodoo]] is a religious practice in which this belief is particularly strong, although many cultures worldwide place a strong emphasis on a person's ability to influence their luckiness by ritualistic means. This often involves proper respect for spirits, believed to inhabit a ___location prior to human occupation. In some cultures, if one builds a house on a property it is respectful to provide a small [[spirit house]] for their habitation. In other cultures, a building may be interrupted by a passageway to allow the flow of spiritual energy - the ___location being determined by an expert in such matters. In such cultures, ignoring such matters is believed to lead to misfortune - ''bad luck''. In this context there is also the concept of "purpose" to events ascribed to luck, good or bad.
*[[Rumour]]s of a [[monster]] or animal living in the [[loch]] have reportedly circulated for at least several centuries, though some have questioned the accuracy, reliability and the existence of such tales. Many local inhabitants argue strongly for its existence. Some [[skeptic]]s suggest that this may be because the rumours of Nessie underpin local [[folklore]] and the [[tourism]] industry.
*"Monster" sightings have occurred as far back as 1,500 years ago. The earliest known reference is from the ''[[Life of St. Columba]]''; it describes how in [[565]] [[Columba]] saved the life of a [[Picts|Pict]] who was being attacked by the monster in the [[River Ness]]. Some critics have questioned the reliability of the ''Life'', noting a different story, in which Columba slays a [[wild boar]] by the power of his voice alone.<sup>1</sup>)
*The first modern sighting occurred on [[May 2]], [[1933]]. The newspaper ''[[Inverness Courier]]'' carried a story of a local couple who reportedly saw "an enormous animal rolling and plunging on the surface." The report of the "monster" (a title chosen by the editor of the ''Courier'') became a media sensation, with [[London]] papers sending reporters to [[Scotland]] and a [[Circus (performing art)|circus]] even offering a reward of [[pound sterling|£]]20,000 for capture of the monster.
*Later that year, [[A.H. Palmer]], who allegedly witnessed Nessie on [[August 11]], [[1933]], at 7 a.m., described the creature as having its head, which they saw from the front, set low in the water. Its mouth, which had a width of between twelve and eighteen [[inch]]es (30-45 cm), was opening and closing; its maximum mouth aperture was estimated to be about six inches (15 cm).
*The modern preoccupation with the Loch Ness Monster was aroused by a [[photograph]] allegedly taken by surgeon [[R.K. Wilson]] on [[April 19]], [[1934]], which seemed to show a large creature with a long neck gliding through the water. Decades later on [[March 12]], [[1994]], [[Marmaduke Wetherell]] claimed to have faked the photo after being hired by the ''[[Daily Mail]]'' to track down Nessie (the photo had by that time been printed worldwide as "absolute evidence"). Wetherell also stated that Wilson did not take the photo, and his name was only used to give added credibility to the photo.
==Effects of viewpoint and beliefs==
==Theories==
The belief in luck as a supernatural phenomenon is generally regarded by rationalists as a form of [[magical thinking]]. However, there is evidence that people who believe themselves to have '''good luck''' are more able to take advantage of fortunate chance events in their lives, and to compensate for unfortunate chance events in their lives, than people who believe that they have '''bad luck'''. This appears to be the result of [[positive thinking]] altering their responses to these events. A belief in luck can also indicate a belief in an external [[locus of control]] for events in their life and so escape from personal responsibility.
Most accounts of the monster's appearance, including historical ones, indicate a creature resembling the long-extinct [[plesiosaur]]. Actual [[fossil]] evidence for this [[Mesozoic]] creature shows it to have been physically large, with a long neck and tiny head, with flippers for propulsion. The alleged connection of this creature with the Loch Ness monster has made it a popular topic in the field of [[cryptozoology]]. However, most scientists suggest that the idea that the Loch Ness Monster is a remnant of the Mesozoic era is highly unlikely — there would need to be a breeding colony of such creatures for there to have been any long-term survival, and coupled with the fact that plesiosaurs needed to surface to breathe, this would result in far more frequent sightings than have actually been reported. Many biologists also argue Loch Ness is not large or productive enough to support even a small family of these creatures. Moreover, the Loch was created as the result of geologically recent [[glaciation]] and was frozen solid during recent [[ice-age]]s.
Some philosophers argue that we each "create our own reality", literally and not metaphorically, and in that context what appears to be good luck can be interpreted as having beliefs that encourage or create what are putatively good outcomes.
Other sightings, however, do not fit the [[plesiosaur]] description or even a water-bound creature: In [[April]] of [[1923]], [[Alfred Cruickshank]] claimed to have seen a creature 3 m to 3.5 m long, with an arched back and four [[elephant]]-like feet cross the road before him as he was driving. Other sightings report creatures more similar to [[camel]]s or [[horse]]s.[http://www.crystalinks.com/loch_ness.html]
===Risky lifestyles===
Theories as to the exact nature of the Loch Ness Monster sightings are varied: [[pareidolia]] or misidentification of [[Pinniped|seals]], [[fish]], [[logging|log]]s, [[mirage]]s, [[seiche]]s, and light distortion, crossing of boat [[wake]]s, or unusual [[Ocean surface wave|wave]] patterns.
Often those who ascribe their travails to "bad luck" will be found upon close examination to be living [[Risk|risky]] [[Lifestyle|lifestyles]]. For example: a drunk driver may ascribe their arrest to the bad luck of being observed by a patrolman, or the bad luck of being involved in a traffic accident (perhaps not even the victim's fault), as a way of avoiding personal responsibility for his/her actions.
===Positive outlook===
Very large [[sturgeon]] have been found in inland streams close to Loch Ness, and due to sturgeons' size and unusual appearance, one could easily be mistaken for a monster by someone not familiar with it. A recent theory postulates that the "monster" is actually nothing more than bubbling and disruptions in the water caused by minor [[volcano|volcanic]] activity at the bottom of the loch. This latter argument is supported — to a minor degree — by a correlation between tectonic motion and reported sightings.
On the other hand, people who consider themselves "lucky" in having good health may be actually reaping the benefits of a cheerful outlook and satisfying social relationships, both of which are well known [[statistics|statistically]] to be protective against many stress-related diseases.
==Evidence=Effects===
If "good" and "bad" events occur at random to everyone, believers in good luck will experience a net gain in their fortunes, and vice versa for believers in bad luck. This is clearly likely to be self-reinforcing. Thus, although untrue, a belief in good luck may actually be an adaptive [[meme]].
===Evidence against===
Perhaps typical of the many unsatisfactory "facts" about Nessie is the alleged sighting of October [[1871]]. In this incident a "D. Mackenzie" supposedly described seeing something that moved slowly before moving off at a faster speed. People who saw "the monster" were said to describe it as having a hump (sometimes more than one) that looked like an upturned boat. However, although this story has been repeated in several places [http://www.geocities.com/bigbazza17/lochnessmonster.html][http://users.belgacom.net/renedec/pagehis9.html][http://www.coverups.com/lochness.htm][http://www.hotenglishmagazine.com/HEM/magpages/magpages/pdf2003apr/historical%20hysterics.pdf], no original 1871 source has been cited, casting doubt on the report.
The [[gambler's fallacy]] and [[inverse gambler's fallacy]] are both related to belief in luck.
In [[July 2003]], the [[BBC]] reported that an extensive investigation of [[Loch Ness]] by a BBC team, using 600 separate [[sonar]] beams, found no trace of any "sea monster" in the loch. The BBC team concluded that Nessie does not exist. [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3096839.stm]
==Numerology==
The famed "Surgeon's Photo" (pictured above) was confirmed a hoax, based on the deathbed confessions of Chris Spurling, son-in-law of Marmaduke Wetherell. Spurling claimed that this photo, which inspired much popular interest in the monster, was actually a staged photograph of [[clay]] attached to a [[toy]] [[submarine]]. Wetherell, a big game hunter, had been tricked into searching for an imaginary monster around the loch based on evidence which turned out to be the result of a children's prank. He was publicly ridiculed in the Daily Mail, the journal which employed him. Marmaduke Wetherell set this hoax up in order to take revenge, and worked on this with Chris Spurling (his son-in-law as mentioned) who is a specialist in sculpture, Ian Marmaduke (his son) who bought the material for the fake Nessie, Maurice Chambers (an insurance agent) who was to call and ask Robert Wilson (a surgeon) to show the pictures.
Most cultures consider some [[numerology|numbers]] to be lucky or unlucky. This is found to be particularly strong in Asian cultures, where the obtaining of "lucky" [[telephone number]]s, automobile [[license plate]] numbers, and [[address (geography)|household addresses]] are actively sought, sometimes at great [[Money|monetary]] expense.
==Sayings==
Well before Spurling's claims, however, others had argued the photo was that of an [[otter]] or a diving [[bird]]. Note that there are in fact two "Surgeon's Photos", which depict slightly different poses, leading some to argue the photos are evidence ''against'' a hoax.
Popular sayings and quotations related to luck:
* "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" -
* "You make your own luck" -
* "When it rains, it pours" - this is an expression of the mathematical property of statistically independent events to bunch together.
* "Bad things happen in threes" - see above
* "Luck is the residue of design" - [[Branch Rickey]]
* When something happens by "sheer dumb luck", it is considered to have happened unintentionally and without planning.
* "Luck doesn't exist." There are more variations on this phrase than can be listed here, but not enough to make believers care.
* "Luck be your lady tonight"
* A famous Samuel Goldwyn quote sums up the rationalist view: "The harder I work, the luckier I get". Or an equally famous [[Gary Player]] quote "The harder I practise, the luckier I get".
* [[Knocking on wood]], spoken expression used as a [[charm]] to bring good luck.
* "In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" - [[Obi-Wan Kenobi]].
* "Luck can only get you so far" by Hermione, referring to a "luck potion Felix Felicis" in {{Harry Potter]] (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
===EvidenceItems for=or events==
Several items or happenings are considered lucky or unlucky.
Some have argued a history of "monster" sightings in the loch is circumstantial evidence supporting the creature's actuality. Note that these notions have been challenged.
===Lucky===
*Finding a [[penny]] on heads
*[[Horseshoe]]s
*Four-leaf [[clovers]]
*[[Rabbit]]'s [[feet]]
*[[Ladybug]]s
===Unlucky===
In the early [[1970s]], a group led by [[United States|American]] [[patent lawyer]] [[Robert Rines]] obtained some underwater photographs. One was a vague image, perhaps of a rhomboid flipper (others have argued the object could be air bubbles or a fish fin). On the basis of this photograph, Sir [[Peter Scott]], one of Britain’s best-known naturalists, announced in [[1975]] that the scientific name of the monster would henceforth be ''Nessiteras rhombopteryx''<sup>1</sup> (Greek for "The Ness monster with diamond-shaped fin). This would enable Nessie to be added to a British register of officially protected wildlife (but compare [http://www.lochness.co.uk/nessie2000/netwarning.html]). It has been noted by London newspapers that ''Nessiteras rhombopteryx'' is an [[anagram]] of "monster hoax by Sir Peter S". Sir Peter replied by saying that the letters can also be rearranged to spell "Yes, both pix are monsters - r."
*[[Friday]] the [[13 (number)|13]]th
*The number 13 (Many buildings skipped 13 when numbering their floors for this reason)
*[[Black]] [[cat]] crossing your path
*Stepping on a crack (it breaks the mother of the stepper's back)
*Breaking a [[mirror]] (seven years bad luck)
*Spilling over [[salt]] (but you can get rid of the bad luck by throwing the salt over your left shoulder).
*Putting a hat on a bed
*Opening an [[umbrella]] indoors
*Seeing three butterflies at the same time
*Killing a ladybug
*Walking underneath a [[ladder]]
==Luck in fiction==
The underwater photos were obtained by painstakingly scouring the loch's depths with radar, over the course of days, for unusual underwater activity. An underwater camera with an affixed, high-powered light (necessary for penetrating Loch Ness' famed murk) was then deployed to record images from below the surface. Several of the resulting photographs, despite their obviously murky quality, indeed seem to show — with only a very slight stretch of the imagination — an animal quite resembling a plesiosaur in various positions and lightings. A few close-ups of what is alleged to be the creature's diamond-shaped fin were also taken, in different positions, indicating movement.
*[[Gladstone Gander]], a fictional [[cartoon]] character, is dependent solely upon his good luck.
*[[Joe Btfsplk]], a character in the [[Li'l Abner]] (Little Abner) [[comic strip]] by the cartoonist [[Al Capp]] is not only unlucky, he is shunned by the other characters as they suspect (with good reason) that this bad luck may be [[infection|infectious]].
==The Loch Ness Monster and local culture==
*In [[Larry Niven|Larry Niven's]] novel ''[[Ringworld]]'', the character [[Teela Brown]] was the incredibly lucky result of a centuries-long breeding program initiated by the alien [[Pierson's Puppeteers]] directed to just such an outcome. The consequence of her state was that she'd led such a charmed and worry-free life that she was emotionally immature and unprepared for "harsh reality."
Regardless of whether anything is actually in the [[loch]], the Loch Ness Monster has some significance for the local economy. Dozens of [[hotel]]s, boating tour operators, and [[merchant]]s of stuffed animals and related trinkets owe part of their livelihood to this monster, although people visit the loch for many reasons other than to see the monster. Hence, the [[legend]] is likely to endure for quite some time.
*In [[Terry Pratchett]]'s ''[[Discworld]]'' series, luck is an [[Anthropomorphism|anthropomorphic personification]] known as the Lady, who, while not a goddess, is powerful enough to be the rival of the god Fate.
*[[Eugene Horowitz]] from [[Hey Arnold]] is known for the bad luck he constantly has, though his [[optimism]] always makes his personality win over it.
==The Loch Ness Monster and popular culture==
*In the [[Harry Potter]] novels, there is a [[potion]], [[Felix Felicis]], which gives its drinker good luck.
The Loch Ness Monster is well known throughout the [[United Kingdom]] and the [[United States]].
*[[Furrball]] the cat in ''[[Tiny Toon Adventures]]'' is a perpetually unfortunate feline, forever suffering mishaps, though frequently it's his own actions (i.e. overwhelming greed) that get him into trouble (not unlike mentor Sylvester the cat).
[[Peter Maddocks]] created a cartoon series called [[Family Ness]] where two children, Angus and Elsbeth McToot, befriend the Ness clan.
A [[Simon Templar|Saint]] story titled "The Convenient Monster" written by [[Leslie Charteris]] featured the Loch Ness Monster. The story appeared in the 1962 collection ''Trust the Saint'' and was included in ''The Fantastic Saint'' (1982). The story was also made into an episode that first aired November 4, 1966, in the fifth season of the BBC television [[The Saint (TV series)|series]] starring [[Roger Moore]] as the Saint.
In the [[1970]] film [[The Private Life of Sherlock Holmes]] an explanation for a similar Loch dwelling monster is revealed as one clue of the story's mystery.
[[Image:nessie.jpg|thumb|right|260px|A photograph showing a scuba diver with the Loch Ness Monster]]
In the [[1975]] ''[[Doctor Who]]'' serial ''[[Terror of the Zygons]]'', the Loch Ness Monster is revealed to be an alien [[cyborg]] controlled by the extraterrestrial race known as the [[Zygon]]s and is used in a bid for world conquest. When that scheme is foiled by the [[The Doctor (Doctor Who)|Doctor]] and its masters killed, the creature returns to its watery home. In the 1985 story [[Timelash]], the Loch Ness monster was revealed to be Borad, a tyrant whose [[DNA]] got mixed with a [[dinosaur]] type monster.
The [[television series]] ''[[The Simpsons]]'' included an episode (#224, '[[Monty Can't Buy Me Love]]') on the Loch Ness Monster. [[Mr. Burns]] takes [[Homer Simpson|Homer]], [[Groundskeeper Willie]], and [[Professor Frink]] to Scotland to capture the creature. After failing to find the monster by manually searching the loch, Burns orders the loch drained. Sure enough, they find the monster and bring it back to Springfield. After a disastrous unveiling reminiscent of Kong's rampage in [[King Kong]], Burns gives Nessie a job at a [[casino]].
In the [[1992]] animated movie '[[Freddie as FRO7]]' Nessie befriends an enchanted [[frog prince]] called Frederick who uses powers of [[Telekenesis]] to free her tail trapped under a fallen boulder. She later helps him defeat an enemy invasion of [[Britain]].
In the comic [[Sherman's Lagoon]] the Loch Ness Monster comes to the lagoon occasionally, usually to play [[golf]]. This depiction of the monster is as a plesiosaur wearing a [[Tam o'shanter]].
In [[John Landis]]' film [[Amazon Women on the Moon]] it was revealed that the Loch Ness Monster was actually none other than [[Jack The Ripper]] himself.
The television series ''[[Scooby Doo]]'' included a movie "Scooby Doo and the Loch Ness Monster". The gang went to Scotland to solve the mystery of the Loch Ness Monster. It turned out that the monster was just a machine, though the existence of an actual one is hinted at in the ending.
Of course the ''[[The Goodies|Goodies]]'' also went to Scotland and captured the Loch Ness Monster. "A bid to trap the Loch Ness Monster to pacify a suicidal zoo keeper sees the Goodies travel to Scotland, where they have a close brush with the deadly Bagpipes spider among other trials." SEASON 2 1971-72 "LOCH NESS MONSTER"
Dojo the dragon from [[Xiaolin Showdown]] is related to Nessie, and hid the Shen-Gon-Wu called the Tangled Web Comb in the loch during one of his visits
In the [[SNES]] game [[Earthbound]] a long-necked, purple Loch Ness inspired character named "Tessie" is used to cross a lake ("Lake Tess") by one of the main characters. There is also a group of local people who have dedicated their lives to studying Tessie.
In the first [[Pokémon]] series of games on Gameboy, [[Lapras]] itself is inspired by Loch Ness.
[[Image:nessdead.jpg|thumb|left|260px|A black and white photograph showing the death of the Loch Ness Monster]]
The cult-favourite film [[Napoleon Dynamite]] features a current events presentation given by Napoleon in which he tells the story of "Japanese scientists placing explosive detonators at the bottom of Lake Loch Ness to blow Nessie out of the water."
In an episode of [[South Park]], Chef's parents tell the boys about all the times the Loch Ness monster has, in disguise, asked them for "about tree fiddy" ($3.50).
[[Ted Danson]] starred in the 1996 film 'Loch Ness' in which he plays an American scientist trying to prove the existence of the Loch Ness monster.
The black and white tabloid paper, the ''Weekly World News'', often reports on the creature, claiming that's it's been captured, sold, and even dead.
An episode in the second series of the classic Japanese [[anime]] [[Lupin III]] entitled "I Can Hear Nessie's Song" features the Loch Ness Monster who comes out of the water when Fujiko sings. An evil Doctor tries to use her singing to his advantage so he can capture the monster.
In the book [[Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them]], written by [[JK Rowling]] for [[Comic Relief]] about creatures from her fictional [[Harry Potter]] universe, it is suggested that the Loch Ness Monster is the world's largest [[kelpie]], a shape changing water creature. It takes the form of a [[sea serpent]] most of the time, but takes the form of an [[otter]] when [[Muggle | Muggles]] are looking for it.
==Reference==
# [[Ronald Binns|Binns, Ronald]], ''[[The Loch Ness Mystery Solved]]'', Great Britain, [[Star Books]], [[1984]], ISBN 0352314877
==See also==
* [[ChampCurse]]
*[[Destiny]]
* [[Lake Tianchi Monster]]
* [[MokeleEvil mbembeeye]]
* [[OgopogoFate]]
* [[SeaFolk monsterreligion]]
* [[Sea serpentIrrationality]]
* [[PlesiosaurMagic (paranormal)]]
*[[Probability]]
*[[Statistics]]
==Loch Ness Monster Researchers==
* [[F.W. HolidaySuperstition]]
* [[Robert Rines|Dr. Robert H. Rines]]
* [[Tim Dinsdale]]
* [[Erik Beckjord]]
* [[Roy Mackal]]
* [[Adrian Shine]]
==External links==
*[http://www.sansilke.freeserve.co.uk/nessie/sight.html List of Nessie sightings]
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3096839.stm BBC 'proves' Nessie does not exist]
[[he:המפלצת מלוך נס]]
[[da:Nessie]]
[[de:Ungeheuer von Loch Ness]]
[[fr:Monstre du Loch Ness]]
[[nl:Monster van Loch Ness]]
[[ja:ネッシー]]
[[pt:Monstro de Loch Ness]]
[[fi:Loch Nessin hirviö]]
[[Category:Cryptids]]
[[Category:Legendary creatures]]
[[Category:Scottish folklore]]
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