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{{Short description|Human-caused changes to climate on Earth}}
{{About|the present-day human-induced rise in global temperatures|natural historical climate trends|Climate variability and change}}
{{Redirect|Global warming||Climate change (disambiguation)|and|Global warming (disambiguation)}}
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{{Use Oxford spelling|date=August 2024}}
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{{multiple image
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|image1 = Change in Average Temperature With Fahrenheit.svg
|alt1 = The global map shows sea temperature rises of 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius; land temperature rises of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius; and Arctic temperature rises of up to 4 degrees Celsius.
|caption1=Changes in [[surface air temperature]] over the past 50 years.<ref>{{Cite web |title=GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ |access-date=12 January 2024 |website=NASA}}</ref> The [[Arctic]] has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than [[sea surface temperature]]s.
|image2 = Global Temperature And Forces With Fahrenheit.svg
|alt2 = Timeseries of global warming from 1880 to 2020 compared to simulated temperatures given only natural forcing. The first shows a positive trend since around 1950 and the second stays relatively flat.
|caption2 = Earth's average surface air temperature has increased almost 1.5{{nbsp}}°C (about{{nbsp}}2.5 °F) since the [[Industrial Revolution]]. Natural forces cause some variability, but the 20-year average shows the progressive influence of human activity.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|loc=SPM-7}}</ref>
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<!--Please do not change the content in the lead section without first proposing the change on the talk page, and please limit overall length to under 500 words.-->
Present-day '''climate change''' includes both '''global warming'''—the ongoing increase in [[Global surface temperature|global average temperature]]—and its wider effects on Earth's [[climate system]]. [[Climate variability and change|Climate change in a broader sense]] also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's [[climate]]. The current rise in global temperatures is [[Scientific consensus on climate change|driven by human activities]], especially [[fossil fuel]] burning since the [[Industrial Revolution]].<ref>{{harvnb|Forster|Smith|Walsh|Lamb|2024|p=2626}}: "The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced."</ref><ref name=Lynas_2021>{{cite journal |last1=Lynas |first1=Mark |last2=Houlton |first2=Benjamin Z. |last3=Perry |first3=Simon |title=Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |date=19 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=11 |page=114005 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 |bibcode=2021ERL....16k4005L |s2cid=239032360 |doi-access=free |issn = 1748-9326}}</ref> Fossil fuel use, [[Deforestation and climate change|deforestation]], and some [[Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture|agricultural]] and industrial practices release [[greenhouse gas]]es.<ref name="Our World in Data-2020">{{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}</ref> These gases [[greenhouse effect|absorb some of the heat]] that the Earth [[Thermal radiation|radiates]] after it warms from sunlight, warming the lower atmosphere. [[Carbon dioxide]], the primary gas driving global warming, [[Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Earth|has increased in concentration by about 50%]] since the [[Pre-industrial society|pre-industrial era]] to levels not seen for millions of years.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=67}}: "Concentrations of {{CO2}}, methane ({{CH4}}), and nitrous oxide ({{N2O}}) have increased to levels unprecedented in at least 800,000 years, and there is high confidence that current {{CO2}} concentrations have not been experienced for at least 2 million years."</ref>
Climate change has an increasingly large [[Effects of climate change|impact on the environment]]. [[Desertification|Deserts are expanding]], while [[heat wave]]s and [[Wildfire#Climate change effects|wildfire]]s are becoming more common.<ref>
* {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=7}}: "Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change... contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions (high confidence)."
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=9}}: "Observed increases in areas burned by wildfires have been attributed to human-induced climate change in some regions (medium to high confidence)"</ref> [[polar amplification|Amplified warming in the Arctic]] has contributed to thawing [[permafrost]], [[retreat of glaciers since 1850|retreat of glaciers]] and [[Arctic sea ice decline|sea ice decline]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019|p=16}}: "Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence)."</ref> Higher temperatures are also causing [[Tropical cyclones and climate change|more intense storms]], droughts, and other [[Extreme weather|weather extremes]].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11|2021|p=1517}}</ref> Rapid environmental change in [[Montane ecosystems|mountains]], [[coral reef]]s, and [[Climate change in the Arctic|the Arctic]] is forcing many species to relocate or [[Extinction risk from climate change|become extinct]].<ref>{{cite web|author=EPA|date=19 January 2017|title=Climate Impacts on Ecosystems|url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180127185656/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|archive-date=27 January 2018|access-date=5 February 2019|quote=Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.}}</ref> Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include [[Ocean temperature#Increasing temperature due to climate change|ocean heating]], [[ocean acidification]] and [[sea level rise]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=64}}: "Sustained net zero anthropogenic emissions of {{CO2}} and declining net anthropogenic non-{{CO2}} radiative forcing over a multi-decade period would halt anthropogenic global warming over that period, although it would not halt sea level rise or many other aspects of climate system adjustment."</ref>
Climate change [[Effects of climate change on human health|threatens people]] with increased flooding, extreme heat, increased [[Effects of climate change on agriculture|food]] and [[Water scarcity#Climate change|water]] scarcity, more disease, and [[Economic impacts of climate change|economic loss]].<ref>{{Cite web |title=Consequences of climate change |url=https://climate.ec.europa.eu/climate-change/consequences-climate-change_en |access-date=2025-04-10 |website=climate.ec.europa.eu |publisher=European Commission |language=en}}</ref> [[Environmental migrant|Human migration]] and conflict can also be a result.<ref>
*{{harvnb|Cattaneo|Beine|Fröhlich|Kniveton|2019}}
*{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=15}}
*{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Technical Summary|2022|p=53}}</ref> The [[World Health Organization]] calls climate change one of the biggest threats to [[global health]] in the 21st century.<ref name="WHO_Nov_2023">{{harvnb|WHO, Nov|2023}}</ref> Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without [[Climate change mitigation|action to limit warming]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=19}}</ref> [[Climate change adaptation|Adapting to climate change]] through efforts like [[flood control]] measures or [[Xerophyte|drought-resistant crops]] partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to adaptation have already been reached.<ref>
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|pp=21–26}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch16|2022|p=2504}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 SYR SPM|2023|pp=8–9}}: "Effectiveness<sup>15</sup> of adaptation in reducing climate risks<sup>16</sup> is documented for specific contexts, sectors and regions (high confidence) ... Soft limits to adaptation are currently being experienced by small-scale farmers and households along some low-lying coastal areas (medium confidence) resulting from financial, governance, institutional and policy constraints (high confidence). Some tropical, coastal, polar and mountain ecosystems have reached hard adaptation limits (high confidence). Adaptation does not prevent all losses and damages, even with effective adaptation and before reaching soft and hard limits (high confidence)."</ref> Poorer communities are responsible for [[Climate justice|a small share of global emissions]], yet have the least ability to adapt and are most [[Climate change vulnerability|vulnerable to climate change]].<ref>{{cite web |last1=Tietjen |first1=Bethany |title=Loss and damage: Who is responsible when climate change harms the world's poorest countries? |url=https://theconversation.com/loss-and-damage-who-is-responsible-when-climate-change-harms-the-worlds-poorest-countries-192070 |website=[[The Conversation (website)|The Conversation]] |access-date=30 August 2023 |date=2 November 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ |publisher=[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|IPCC]] |access-date=30 August 2023 |date=27 February 2022}}</ref>
<noinclude>{{multiple image
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| image1 = Bobcat Fire, Los Angeles, San Gabriel Mountains.jpg
| alt1 = Bobcat Fire in Monrovia, CA, September 10, 2020
| image2 = Bleached colony of Acropora coral.jpg
| alt2 = Bleached colony of Acropora coral
| image4 = California Drought Dry Lakebed 2009.jpg
| alt4 = A dry lakebed in California, which is experiencing its worst megadrought in 1,200 years.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/water-cutbacks-california-6-million-people-drought/ |title=California is rationing water amid its worst drought in 1,200 years |first=Irina |last=Ivanova |publisher=[[CBS News]] |date=June 2, 2022}}</ref>
| footer = Examples of some [[effects of climate change]]: [[Wildfire]] intensified by heat and drought, [[Coral bleaching|bleaching of corals]] occurring more often due to [[marine heatwave]]s, and worsening droughts compromising water supplies.
}}
</noinclude>
Many climate change impacts have been observed in the first decades of the 21st century, with 2024 the warmest on record at +{{convert|1.60|C-change}} since regular tracking began in 1850.<ref>{{cite web|title=2024 – a second record-breaking year, following the exceptional 2023|url=https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024#543aa52e-a01b-45e0-adfc-c610e4ac93a5|website=[[Copernicus Programme]]|date=10 January 2025|accessdate=10 January 2025}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last=Carrington|first=Damian|title=Hottest year on record sent planet past 1.5C of heating for first time in 2024|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/10/world-temperature-in-2024-exceeded-15c-for-first-time|website=The Guardian|date=10 January 2025|accessdate=10 January 2025}}</ref> Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger [[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping points]], such as melting all of the [[Greenland ice sheet]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=71}}</ref> Under the 2015 [[Paris Agreement]], nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about {{convert|2.8|C-change}} by the end of the century.<ref name="UNEP2024">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2024|p=XVIII}}: "The full implementation and continuation of the level of mitigation effort implied by unconditional or conditional NDC scenarios lower these projections to 2.8 °C (range: 1.9–3.7) and 2.6 °C (range: 1.9–3.6), respectively. All with at least a 66 per cent chance."</ref> Limiting warming to 1.5 °C would require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving [[Carbon neutrality|net-zero]] emissions by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=95–96}}: "In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5 °C, global net anthropogenic {{CO2}} emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 (40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around 2050 (2045–2055 interquartile range)"</ref><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|loc=SPM C.3|p=17}}: "All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5 °C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 Gt{{CO2}} over the 21st century. CDR would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5 °C following a peak (high confidence). CDR deployment of several hundreds of Gt{{CO2}} is subject to multiple feasibility and sustainability constraints (high confidence)."</ref>
There is widespread support for [[climate action]] worldwide.<ref name=Damian/><ref name=Peter/> [[Fossil fuel phase-out|Fossil fuels can be phased out]] by stopping [[Fossil fuel subsidies|subsidising them]], [[conserving energy]] and switching to [[Low-carbon electricity|energy sources that do not produce significant carbon pollution]]. These energy sources include wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power.<ref>
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Annex III|2014|p=1335}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|pp=24–25}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Technical Summary|2022|p=89}}</ref> Cleanly generated electricity can replace fossil fuels for [[electric vehicles|powering transportation]], [[electric heating|heating buildings]], and running industrial processes.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Technical Summary|2022|p=84}}: "Stringent emissions reductions at the level required for 2°C or 1.5°C are achieved through the increased electrification of buildings, transport, and industry, consequently all pathways entail increased electricity generation (high confidence)."</ref> Carbon can also be [[Carbon dioxide removal|removed from the atmosphere]], for instance by [[Forest protection|increasing forest cover]] and farming with methods that [[Carbon farming|store carbon in soil]].<ref>
* {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|pp=24–25}}
* {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Technical Summary|2022|p=114}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Duarte|first1=C.M.|last2=Delgado-Huertas|first2=A.|display-authors=etal|date=17 January 2025|title= Carbon burial in sediments below seaweed farms matches that of Blue Carbon habitats|url= https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02238-1 |journal=[[Nature Climate Change]]|volume=15 |issue=2|pages=180–187|doi=10.1038/s41558-024-02238-1 |bibcode=2025NatCC..15..180D |access-date=13 August 2025}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|last1=Winfield|first1=E.|last2=Ostoja|first2=S.|title= Climate-Smart Agriculture: Soil Health & Carbon Farming [Factsheet]|url= https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-15874560|website=USDA California Climate Hub|date=2020|access-date=13 August 2025}}</ref>
{{TOC level|3}} <!--Please do not uncollapse the TOC without prior discussion (see discussion on talk page from May 2022).-->
== Terminology ==<!--An excerpt of this section has been added to [[History of climate change science]] in September 2022.-->
Before the 1980s, it was unclear whether the warming effect of [[Greenhouse effect|increased greenhouse gases]] was stronger than the [[Particulates#Climate effects|cooling effect of airborne particulates]] in air pollution. Scientists used the term ''inadvertent climate modification'' to refer to human impacts on the climate at this time.<ref name="Conway 2008">{{harvnb|NASA, 5 December|2008}}.</ref> In the 1980s, the terms ''global warming'' and ''climate change'' became more common, often being used interchangeably.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 7 July|2020}}</ref><ref>{{Harvnb|Shaftel|2016}}: "{{thinsp}}'Climate change' and 'global warming' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. ... Global warming refers to the upward temperature trend across the entire Earth since the early 20th century ... Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena ...[which] include the increased temperature trends described by global warming."</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}}: "The terms global warming and climate change can be used interchangeably. Climate change is more accurate scientifically to describe the various effects of greenhouse gases on the world because it includes extreme weather, storms and changes in rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level.".</ref> Scientifically, ''global warming'' refers only to increased global average surface temperature, while ''climate change'' describes both global warming and its effects on Earth's [[climate system]], such as precipitation changes.<ref name="Conway 2008"/>
''Climate change'' can also be used more broadly to include [[Climate variability and change|changes to the climate]] that have happened throughout Earth's history.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}: "Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use."</ref> ''Global warming''—used as early as 1975<ref name=Science_Broecker_19750808>{{cite journal |last1=Broecker |first1=Wallace S. |title=Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming? |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |date=8 August 1975 |volume=189 |issue=4201 |pages=460–463 |doi=10.1126/science.189.4201.460 |jstor=1740491 |pmid=17781884 |bibcode=1975Sci...189..460B |s2cid=16702835 |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/1740491|url-access=subscription }}</ref>—became the more popular term after [[NASA]] climate scientist [[James Hansen]] used it in his 1988 testimony in the [[U.S. Senate]].<ref name="history.aip.org2">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}}, [http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#L_0575 "News reporters gave only a little attention ..."].</ref> Since the 2000s, ''climate change'' has increased usage.<ref>{{harvnb|Joo|Kim|Do|Lineman|2015}}.</ref> Various scientists, politicians and media may use the terms ''[[climate crisis]]'' or ''[[Climate emergency declaration|climate emergency]]'' to talk about climate change, and may use the term ''global heating'' instead of ''global warming''.<ref>{{harvnb|Hodder|Martin|2009}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}</ref>
== Global temperature rise ==
{{Further|Global surface temperature}}
=== Temperatures prior to present-day global warming ===
{{Main|Climate variability and change|Temperature record of the last 2,000 years|Paleoclimatology}}
[[File:Common Era Temperature.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|[[Global surface temperature]] reconstruction over the past 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores in blue.<ref>{{harvnb|Neukom|Barboza|Erb|Shi|2019b}}.</ref> Directly observed data is in red.<ref name="nasa temperatures">{{cite web |title=Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/ |access-date=23 February 2020 |publisher=[[NASA]]}}</ref>]]
Over the last few million years the climate cycled through [[Glacial period|ice ages]]. One of the hotter periods was the [[Last Interglacial]], around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|pp=294, 296}} This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most [[Last Glacial Maximum|recent glacial maximum]] 20,000 years ago was some 5–7 °C colder. This period has sea levels that were over {{convert|125|m|ft}} lower than today.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|p=366}}
Temperatures stabilized in the current interglacial period beginning [[holocene|11,700 years ago]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Marcott |first1=S. A. |last2=Shakun |first2=J. D. |last3=Clark |first3=P. U. |last4=Mix |first4=A. C. |title=A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |year=2013 |volume=339 |issue=6124 |pages=1198–1201 |doi=10.1126/science.1228026|pmid=23471405 |bibcode=2013Sci...339.1198M }}</ref> This period also saw the start of agriculture.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|p=296}} Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the [[Medieval Warm Period]] and the [[Little Ice Age]], did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|p=386}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Neukom|Steiger|Gómez-Navarro|Wang|2019a}}</ref> Climate information for that period comes from [[Proxy (climate)|climate proxies]], such as trees and [[ice core]]s.<ref name="SR15 Ch1 p57">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=57}}: "This report adopts the 51-year reference period, 1850–1900 inclusive, assessed as an approximation of pre-industrial levels in AR5 ... Temperatures rose by 0.0 °C–0.2 °C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900"</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Hawkins|Ortega|Suckling|Schurer|2017|p=1844}}</ref>
=== Warming since the Industrial Revolution ===
[[File:1951- Percent of record temperatures that are cold or warm records.svg|thumb|upright=1.35| In recent decades, new high temperature records have substantially outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth's surface.<ref name=NOAA_July>{{cite web |title=Mean Monthly Temperature Records Across the Globe / Timeseries of Global Land and Ocean Areas at Record Levels for September from 1951–2023 |url=https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-3 |website=NCEI.NOAA.gov |publisher=National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231014030010/https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-3 |archive-date=14 October 2023 |date=September 2023 |url-status=live}} (change "202309" in URL to see years other than 2023, and months other than 09=September)</ref>]]
[[File:1955- Ocean heat content - NOAA.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |There has been an increase in [[ocean heat content]] during recent decades as the oceans absorb over 90% of the [[Earth's energy budget|heat from global warming]].<ref name=NOAA_NASA_OHC_1957_>''Top 700 meters:'' {{cite web |last1=Lindsey |first1=Rebecca |last2=Dahlman |first2=Luann |title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |website=climate.gov |publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |archive-url=https://archive.today/20231029171303/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |archive-date=29 October 2023 |date=6 September 2023 |url-status=dead }} ● ''Top 2000 meters:'' {{cite web |title=Ocean Warming / Latest Measurement: December 2022 / 345 (± 2) zettajoules since 1955 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/ |website=NASA.gov |publisher=National Aeronautics and Space Administration |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231020033606/https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/ |archive-date=20 October 2023 |url-status=live}}</ref>]]
Around 1850 [[thermometer]] records began to provide global coverage.<ref name="AR5 WG1 SPM p4-5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=4–5}}: "Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables ... the period 1880 to 2012 ... multiple independently produced datasets exist."</ref>
Between the 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from [[sulfur dioxide]] emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes [[acid rain]], but it also produces [[sulfate]] aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause [[global dimming]]. After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to a marked increase in temperature.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/26/global-warming-accelerating-climate-change/ |title=Is climate change speeding up? Here's what the science says. |last1=Mooney |first1=Chris | last2=Osaka |first2=Shannon |date=26 December 2023 |newspaper=The Washington Post |access-date=18 January 2024}}</ref><ref name="NASA2007">{{cite news |date=15 March 2007 |title=Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists |url=http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html |publisher=[[NASA]]}}</ref><ref name="Quaas2022" />
[[File:1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm|thumb|upright=1.35|NASA animation portraying global surface temperature changes from 1880 to 2023. The colour blue denotes cooler temperatures and red denotes warmer temperatures.{{Clarify| reason=cooler and warmer than _what_? If 1880 shouldn't the animation start out pure white?|date=July 2025}}]]
Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=43}}</ref> Multiple datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature,<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2016}}: "The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g. rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice)."</ref> at a rate of around 0.2 °C per decade.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=81}}.</ref> The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).<ref>{{harvnb|Forster|Smith|Walsh|Lamb|2024|p=2626}}</ref> Not every single year was warmer than the last: internal [[climate variability]] processes can make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average.<ref name="Samset2020">{{cite journal |last1=Samset |first1=B. H. |last2=Fuglestvedt |first2=J. S. |last3=Lund |first3=M. T. |title=Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation |journal=Nature Communications |date=7 July 2020 |volume=11 |issue=1 |page=3261 |doi=10.1038/s41467-020-17001-1 |pmid=32636367 |pmc=7341748 |bibcode=2020NatCo..11.3261S |quote=At the time of writing, that translated into 2035–2045, where the delay was mostly due to the impacts of the around 0.2 °C of natural, interannual variability of global mean surface air temperature |hdl=11250/2771093 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, [[Pacific decadal oscillation|Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]]<ref name="SeipGrønWang2023PacificDecadalOscillation">{{Cite journal |last1=Seip |first1=Knut L. |last2=Grøn |first2=ø. |last3=Wang |first3=H. |date=31 August 2023 |title=Global lead-lag changes between climate variability series coincide with major phase shifts in the Pacific decadal oscillation |journal=[[Theoretical and Applied Climatology]] |volume=154 |issue=3–4 |language=en |doi=10.1007/s00704-023-04617-8 |issn=0177-798X |pages=1137–1149 |bibcode=2023ThApC.154.1137S |s2cid=261438532 |doi-access=free |hdl=11250/3088837 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> and [[Atlantic multidecadal oscillation|Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)]]<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Yao |first1=Shuai-Lei |last2=Huang |first2=Gang |last3=Wu |first3=Ren-Guang |last4=Qu |first4=Xia |date=January 2016 |title=The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x |journal=[[Theoretical and Applied Climatology]] |language=en |volume=123 |issue=1–2 |pages=349–360 |doi=10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x |bibcode=2016ThApC.123..349Y |s2cid=123602825 |issn=0177-798X |access-date=20 September 2023|url-access=subscription }}</ref> caused a short slower period of warming called the "[[global warming hiatus]]".<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Xie |first1=Shang-Ping |last2=Kosaka |first2=Yu |date=June 2017 |title=What Caused the Global Surface Warming Hiatus of 1998–2013? |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-017-0063-0 |journal=Current Climate Change Reports |language=en |volume=3 |issue=2 |pages=128–140 |doi=10.1007/s40641-017-0063-0 |bibcode=2017CCCR....3..128X |s2cid=133522627 |issn=2198-6061 |access-date=20 September 2023|url-access=subscription }}</ref> After the "hiatus", the opposite occurred, with 2024 well above the recent average at more than +1.5 °C.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Tollefson |first=Jeff |date=10 January 2025 |title=Earth breaches 1.5 °C climate limit for the first time: what does it mean? |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00010-9 |journal=Nature |volume=637 |issue=8047 |pages=769–770 |language=en |doi=10.1038/d41586-025-00010-9 |pmid=39794429 |bibcode=2025Natur.637..769T |issn=1476-4687|url-access=subscription }}</ref> This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal.<ref name="IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM">IPCC, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf Summary for Policymakers]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York City, US, pp. 3–32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.</ref>{{rp|5}}<ref>{{Cite web |last=McGrath |first=Matt |date=17 May 2023 |title=Global warming set to break key 1.5C limit for first time |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65602293 |website=[[BBC News]] |access-date=31 January 2024 |quote=The researchers stress that temperatures would have to stay at or above 1.5C for 20 years to be able to say the Paris agreement threshold had been passed. }}</ref>
A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming.<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|p=S26}}. Figure 2.5.</ref>{{sfn|Loeb et al.|2021}} The upper atmosphere is cooling, because [[greenhouse gas]]es are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat is radiating into space.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming |title=Global Warming |date=3 June 2010 |publisher=[[NASA JPL]] |access-date=11 September 2020 |quote=Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere but cooling in the stratosphere. This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases but inconsistent with warming from natural causes.}}</ref> Warming reduces average snow cover and [[retreat of glaciers since 1850|forces the retreat of glaciers]]. At the same time, warming also causes [[Effects of climate change on the water cycle|greater evaporation from the oceans]], leading to more [[specific humidity|atmospheric humidity]], more and heavier [[precipitation]].<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|pp=S26, S59–S60}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 1|2017|p=35}}</ref> Plants are [[flowering]] earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=257–260}}</ref>
==== Differences by region ====
Different regions of the world [[Climate variability and change#Variability between regions|warm at different rates]]. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}</ref> This is because oceans lose more heat by [[evaporation]] and [[Ocean heat content|oceans can store a lot of heat]].<ref>{{Harvnb|Sutton|Dong|Gregory|2007}}.</ref> The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been [[ocean heat content|stored in the ocean]].<ref name="ocean heat absorption">{{cite web|title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |newspaper=Noaa Climate.gov |publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA]] |year=2018 |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190212110601/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-date=12 February 2019 |url-status=dead|access-date=20 February 2019}}</ref><ref name="Harvipccar5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013|p=257}}: "[[Sea level rise#Ocean heating|Ocean warming]] dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total.</ref> The rest has heated the [[atmosphere]], melted ice, and warmed the continents.<ref name=EarthSysSciData_20200907>{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckman |first1=K. |last2=Cheng |first2=L. |last3=Palmer |first3=M. D. |last4=Hansen |first4=J. |last5=Tassone |first5=C. |last6=Aich |first6=V. |last7=Adusumilli |first7=S. |last8=Beltrami |first8=H. |last9=Boyer |first9=T. |last10=Cuesta-Valero |first10=F. J. |display-authors=4 |title=Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go? |journal=Earth System Science Data |date=7 September 2020 |doi=10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020 |doi-access=free |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/ |volume=12 |issue=3 |pages=2013–2041|bibcode=2020ESSD...12.2013V |hdl=20.500.11850/443809 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>
The [[Northern Hemisphere]] and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and [[sea ice]]. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start [[albedo|absorbing more heat]].<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 10 July|2011}}.</ref> Local [[black carbon]] deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming.<ref>{{harvnb|United States Environmental Protection Agency|2016|p=5}}: "Black carbon that is deposited on snow and ice darkens those surfaces and decreases their reflectivity (albedo). This is known as the snow/ice albedo effect. This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting."</ref> Arctic surface temperatures are increasing [[polar amplification|between three and four times faster]] than in the rest of the world.<ref name="3X2021">{{cite web |date=20 May 2021 |title=Arctic warming three times faster than the planet, report warns |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-05-arctic-faster-planet.html |website=[[Phys.org]] |language=en |access-date=6 October 2022}}</ref><ref name="Rantanen2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Rantanen |first1=Mika |last2=Karpechko |first2=Alexey Yu |last3=Lipponen |first3=Antti |last4=Nordling |first4=Kalle |last5=Hyvärinen |first5=Otto |last6=Ruosteenoja |first6=Kimmo |last7=Vihma |first7=Timo |last8=Laaksonen |first8=Ari |date=11 August 2022 |title=The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |journal=Communications Earth & Environment |language=en |volume=3 |issue=1 |page=168 |doi=10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 |s2cid=251498876 |issn=2662-4435|doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ComEE...3..168R |hdl=11250/3115996 |hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref name="4X2021">{{cite web |date=14 December 2021 |title=The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/arctic-warming-four-times-faster-rest-world |language=en |access-date=6 October 2022}}</ref> Melting of [[ice sheet]]s near the poles weakens both the [[Atlantic meridional overturning circulation|Atlantic]] and the [[Southern Ocean overturning circulation|Antarctic]] limb of [[thermohaline circulation]], which further changes the distribution of heat and [[precipitation]] around the globe.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Wei |last2=Fedorov |first2=Alexey V. |last3=Xie |first3=Shang-Ping |last4=Hu |first4=Shineng |date=26 June 2020 |title=Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate |journal=Science Advances |volume=6 |issue=26 |pages=eaaz4876 |doi=10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876 |pmid=32637596 |pmc=7319730 |bibcode=2020SciA....6.4876L }}</ref><ref name="PearceYale3602023">{{cite web |last=Pearce |first=Fred |date=18 April 2023 |title=New Research Sparks Concerns That Ocean Circulation Will Collapse |url=https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-ocean-circulation-collapse-antarctica |language=en |access-date=3 February 2024 }}</ref><ref name="Lee2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Lee |first1=Sang-Ki |last2=Lumpkin |first2=Rick |last3=Gomez |first3=Fabian |last4=Yeager |first4=Stephen |last5=Lopez |first5=Hosmay |last6=Takglis |first6=Filippos |last7=Dong |first7=Shenfu |last8=Aguiar |first8=Wilton |last9=Kim |first9=Dongmin |last10=Baringer |first10=Molly |date=13 March 2023 |title=Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean |journal=Communications Earth & Environment |volume=4 |issue=1 |page=69 |doi=10.1038/s43247-023-00727-3 |bibcode=2023ComEE...4...69L |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="NOAA2023">{{cite web |date=29 March 2023 |title=NOAA Scientists Detect a Reshaping of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean |url=https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/noaa-scientists-detect-reshaping-of-the-meridional-overturning-circulation-in-southern-ocean/ |publisher=[[NOAA]] }}</ref>
=== Future global temperatures ===
[[File:Projected Change in Temperatures by 2090.svg|upright=1.35|thumb|[[Coupled Model Intercomparison Project#CMIP Phase 6|CMIP6]] multi-model projections of [[global surface temperature]] changes for the year 2090 relative to the 1850–1900 average. The current trajectory for warming by the end of the century is roughly halfway between these two extremes.<ref name="UNEP2024" /><ref name="Schuur2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A. G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |bibcode=2022ARER...47..343S |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |quote="Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3 °C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..." |doi-access=free |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt}}</ref><ref name="Phiddian2022">{{Cite web |last=Phiddian |first=Ellen |date=5 April 2022 |title=Explainer: IPCC Scenarios |url=https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |website=[[Cosmos (magazine)|Cosmos]] |access-date=30 September 2023 |quote="The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. [[The Australian Academy of Science]], for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3 °C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. [[Climate Action Tracker]] predicts 2.5 to 2.9 °C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1 °C.}}</ref>]]
The [[World Meteorological Organization]] estimates there is almost a 50% chance of the five-year average global temperature exceeding +1.5 °C between 2024 and 2028.{{sfn|WMO|2024b|p=2}} The IPCC expects the 20-year average to exceed +1.5 °C in the early 2030s.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web |date=7 August 2021 |title=Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf#page=955 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240405072633/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf#page=955 |archive-date=5 April 2024 |website=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |id=IPCC AR6 WGI}}</ref>
The [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]] (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP1: Sustainability (Taking the Green Road)|scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases]], 2.1–3.5 °C under an [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP3: Regional rivalry (A Rocky Road)|intermediate emissions scenario]],
or 3.3–5.7 °C under [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP5: Fossil-Fueled Development (Taking the Highway)|a very high emissions scenario]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=SPM-17}}</ref> The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios,<ref name="Meinshausen2011">{{Cite journal |last1=Meinshausen |first1=Malte |last2=Smith |first2=S. J. |last3=Calvin |first3=K. |last4=Daniel |first4=J. S. |last5=Kainuma |first5=M. L. T. |last6=Lamarque |first6=J-F. |last7=Matsumoto |first7=K. |last8=Montzka |first8=S. A. |last9=Raper |first9=S. C. B. |last10=Riahi |first10=K. |last11=Thomson |first11=A. |last12=Velders |first12=G. J. M. |last13=van Vuuren |first13=D.P. P. |year=2011 |title=The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 |journal=Climatic Change |language=en |volume=109 |issue=1–2 |pages=213–241 |doi=10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z |bibcode=2011ClCh..109..213M |issn=0165-0009|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Lyon2021">{{cite journal |last1=Lyon |first1=Christopher |last2=Saupe |first2=Erin E. |last3=Smith |first3=Christopher J. |last4=Hill |first4=Daniel J. |last5=Beckerman |first5=Andrew P. |last6=Stringer |first6=Lindsay C. |last7=Marchant |first7=Robert |last8=McKay |first8=James |last9=Burke |first9=Ariane |last10=O'Higgins |first10=Paul |last11=Dunhill |first11=Alexander M. |last12=Allen |first12=Bethany J. |last13=Riel-Salvatore |first13=Julien |last14=Aze |first14=Tracy |year=2021 |title=Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100 |journal=Global Change Biology |language=en |volume=28 |issue=2 |pages=349–361 |doi=10.1111/gcb.15871 |issn=1365-2486 |pmid=34558764 |s2cid=237616583 |doi-access=free|hdl=20.500.11850/521222 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|pp=43–44}}</ref>
The remaining [[carbon budget]] for staying beneath certain temperature increases is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and [[climate sensitivity]] to greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Rogelj|Forster|Kriegler|Smith|2019}}</ref> According to [[UNEP]], global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}. This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0 °C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}, or 16 years of current emissions.{{sfn|United Nations Environment Programme|2024|pp=XI, XVII}}
== Causes of recent global temperature rise ==
{{Main|Causes of climate change}}
[[File:Physical Drivers of climate change.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|[[Radiative forcing|Physical drivers]] of global warming that has happened so far. Future [[global warming potential]] for long lived drivers like carbon dioxide emissions is not represented. Whiskers on each bar show the possible [[Observational error|error range]].]]
The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, [[El Niño]] events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while [[La Niña]] events cause short term cooling.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Brown |first1=Patrick T. |last2=Li |first2=Wenhong |last3=Xie |first3=Shang-Ping |title=Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models: Origin of global temperature variability |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |date=27 January 2015 |volume=120 |issue=2 |pages=480–494 |doi=10.1002/2014JD022576 |doi-access=free |hdl=10161/9564 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on a decadal timescale.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Trenberth |first1=Kevin E. |last2=Fasullo |first2=John T. |title=An apparent hiatus in global warming? |journal=Earth's Future |date=December 2013 |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=19–32 |doi=10.1002/2013EF000165 |bibcode=2013EaFut...1...19T |doi-access=free }}</ref> Other changes are caused by an [[Earth's Energy Imbalance|imbalance of energy]] from [[Climate forcing|external forcings]].<ref>{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2012|p=9}}</ref> Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of [[greenhouse gas]]es, [[solar luminosity]], [[volcano|volcanic]] eruptions, and [[orbital forcing|variations in the Earth's orbit]] around the Sun.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|p=916}}.</ref>
To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal [[climate variability]].<ref>{{harvnb|Knutson|2017|p=443}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|pp=875–876}}</ref> For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming the entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed.<ref name="USGCRP-2009" /> Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in [[albedo]], are less impactful.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=7}}</ref>
=== Greenhouse gases ===
{{Main|Greenhouse gas|Greenhouse gas emissions|Greenhouse effect|Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere}}[[File:Carbon Dioxide 800kyr.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|{{CO2}} concentrations over the last 800,000 years as measured from ice cores (blue/green) and directly (black)]]
Greenhouse gases are transparent to [[sunlight]], and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth [[Radiative cooling|radiates it as heat]], and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Causes of Climate Change|author=NASA |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/causes|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|access-date=8 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190508000022/https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/|archive-date=8 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref>
While [[water vapour]] (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be [[climate change feedbacks|feedbacks]] that change [[climate sensitivity]]. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as {{CO2}} (≈20%), [[tropospheric ozone]],<ref>Ozone acts as a greenhouse gas in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the [[troposphere]] (as opposed to the stratospheric [[ozone layer]]). {{harvnb|Wang|Shugart|Lerdau|2017}}</ref> [[Chlorofluorocarbon|CFCs]] and [[nitrous oxide]] are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be [[Radiative forcing|external forcings]] that change global temperatures.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Ruedy|Miller|Lacis|2010}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014|p=742}}</ref>
Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007|loc=FAQ1.1}}: "To emit 240 W m<sup>−2</sup>, a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C).</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=What Is the Greenhouse Effect?|author=ACS|author-link=American Chemical Society|url=https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|access-date=26 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190526110653/https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|archive-date=26 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (coal, [[Petroleum|oil]], and natural gas),<ref>{{Harvnb|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}.</ref> has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the [[Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere|concentrations of {{CO2}}]] and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750.<ref>{{Harvnb|WMO|2024a|p=2}}.</ref> These {{CO2}} levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 14 million years.{{sfn|The Cenozoic CO2 Proxy Integration Project (CenCOPIP) Consortium|2023}} [[Atmospheric methane|Concentrations of methane]] are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.{{Sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-35}}
[[File:CO2 Emissions by Source Since 1880.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|The [[Global Carbon Project]] shows how additions to {{CO2}} since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.]]
Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were [[Global warming potential|equivalent to]] 59 billion tonnes of {{CO2}}. Of these emissions, 75% was {{CO2}}, 18% was [[methane]], 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was [[fluorinated gases]].{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|loc=Figure SPM.1}} {{CO2}} emissions primarily come from burning [[fossil fuel]]s to provide energy for transport, manufacturing, [[Heating#Energy sources|heating]], and electricity.<ref name="Our World in Data-2020"/> Additional {{CO2}} emissions come from [[deforestation and climate change|deforestation]] and [[Industrial processes#Chemical processes by main basic material|industrial processes]], which include the {{CO2}} released by the chemical reactions for [[Cement#Chemistry|making cement]], [[Blast furnace#Process engineering and chemistry|steel]], [[Hall–Héroult process|aluminium]], and [[haber process|fertilizer]].<ref>{{harvnb|Olivier|Peters|2019|p=17}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}; {{harvnb|EPA|2020}}: "Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily come from burning fossil fuels for energy, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from certain chemical reactions necessary to produce goods from raw materials."</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Redox, extraction of iron and transition metals|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv7f3k7/revision/2|quote=Hot air (oxygen) reacts with the coke (carbon) to produce carbon dioxide and heat energy to heat up the furnace. Removing impurities: The calcium carbonate in the limestone thermally decomposes to form calcium oxide. calcium carbonate → calcium oxide + carbon dioxide}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Kvande|2014}}: "Carbon dioxide gas is formed at the anode, as the carbon anode is consumed upon reaction of carbon with the oxygen ions from the alumina ({{chem2|Al2O3}}). Formation of carbon dioxide is unavoidable as long as carbon anodes are used, and it is of great concern because {{CO2}} is a greenhouse gas."</ref> Methane emissions [[enteric fermentation|come from livestock]], manure, [[Environmental impact of rice cultivation|rice cultivation]], landfills, wastewater, and [[coal seam gas|coal mining]], as well as [[fugitive gas emissions|oil and gas extraction]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2020}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Global Methane Initiative|2020}}: "Estimated Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions by Source, 2020: [[Enteric fermentation]] (27%), Manure Management (3%), Coal Mining (9%), [[Municipal Solid Waste]] (11%), Oil & Gas (24%), [[Wastewater]] (7%), [[Rice|Rice Cultivation]] (7%)."</ref> Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of [[fertilizer]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}: "Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of {{N2O}} emissions."</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Davidson|2009}}: "2.0% of manure nitrogen and 2.5% of fertilizer nitrogen was converted to nitrous oxide between 1860 and 2005; these percentage contributions explain the entire pattern of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations over this period."</ref>
While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years,<ref>{{cite web |title=Understanding methane emissions |publisher=International Energy Agency |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2023/understanding-methane-emissions}}</ref> {{CO2}} lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs {{CO2}} as part of the [[carbon cycle]]. While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of {{CO2}} every year, that {{CO2}} is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays.<ref name="nasacc">{{cite web|last1=Riebeek|first1=Holli|title=The Carbon Cycle|url=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features|website=Earth Observatory|publisher=NASA|access-date=5 April 2018|date=16 June 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305010126/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features|archive-date=5 March 2016|url-status=live}}</ref> Land-surface [[carbon sink]] processes, such as [[carbon fixation]] in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global {{CO2}} emissions.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=10}}</ref> The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted {{CO2}} over the last two decades.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=450}}.</ref> {{CO2}} is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete.<ref name="nasacc" />
===
[[File:20210331 Global tree cover loss - World Resources Institute.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |right |The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy.<ref name=WRI_20240424>{{cite web |title=Indicators of Forest Extent / Forest Loss |url=https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest-loss |publisher=World Resources Institute |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240527180607/https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest-loss |archive-date=27 May 2024 |date=4 April 2024 |url-status=live }} Chart in section titled "Annual rates of global tree cover loss have risen since 2000".</ref>]]
Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans ([[glacier]]s, [[desert]]s, etc.), 26% is forests, 10% is [[shrubland]] and 34% is [[agricultural land]].<ref>{{harvnb|Ritchie|Roser|2018}}</ref> [[Deforestation]] is the main [[land use change]] contributor to global warming,<ref>{{harvnb|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}}; {{harvnb|UN FAO|2016|p=18}}.</ref> as the destroyed trees release {{CO2}}, and are not replaced by new trees, removing that [[carbon sink]].<ref name="IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers 2019 18">{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref> Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable [[agricultural expansion]] for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the [[shifting cultivation]] agricultural systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and [[wildfire]]s have accounted for the remaining 23%.<ref>{{harvnb|Curtis|Slay|Harris|Tyukavina|2018}}</ref> Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink.<ref name="Duchelle-2022">{{Cite book |author1=Garrett, L. |author2=Lévite, H. |author3=Besacier, C. |author4=Alekseeva, N. |author5=Duchelle, M. |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cc2510en |title=The key role of forest and landscape restoration in climate action |publisher=FAO |year=2022 |isbn=978-92-5-137044-5 |___location=Rome|doi=10.4060/cc2510en }}</ref>
Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space ([[albedo]]), and how much [[evaporative cooling|heat is lost by evaporation]]. For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.<ref name="Seymour 2019">{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}}</ref> In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler.<ref name="Duchelle-2022"/> At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains.<ref name="Seymour 2019" /> Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect.<ref name="IPCC Special Report: Climate change and Land p2-54">{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=172}}: "The global biophysical cooling alone has been estimated by a larger range of climate models and is −0.10 ± 0.14 °C; it ranges from −0.57 °C to +0.06 °C ... This cooling is essentially dominated by increases in surface albedo: historical land cover changes have generally led to a dominant brightening of land."</ref>
=== Other factors ===
==== Aerosols and clouds ====
Air pollution, in the form of [[Particulates#Climate effects|aerosols, affects the climate]] on a large scale.<ref>{{Harvnb|Haywood|2016|p=456}}; {{harvnb|McNeill|2017}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref> Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of [[irradiance|sunlight reaching the Earth's surface]] was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as ''[[global dimming]]'',<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=183}}.</ref> and is primarily attributed to [[sulfate]] aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal and [[bunker fuel]].<ref name="Quaas2022" /> Smaller contributions come from [[black carbon]] (from combustion of fossil fuels and [[biomass]]), and from dust.<ref>{{harvnb|He|Wang|Zhou|Wild|2018}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=18 February 2021 |title=Aerosol pollution has caused decades of global dimming |url=https://news.agu.org/press-release/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming/ |website=[[American Geophysical Union]] |access-date=18 December 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230327143716/https://news.agu.org/press-release/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming/ |archive-date=27 March 2023 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Monroe |first=Robert |date=20 January 2023 |title=Increased Atmospheric Dust has Masked Power of Greenhouse Gases to Warm Planet {{!}} Scripps Institution of Oceanography |url=https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/increased-atmospheric-dust-has-masked-power-greenhouse-gases-warm-planet |access-date=8 November 2024 |website=scripps.ucsd.edu |language=en}}</ref> Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.<ref>{{harvnb|Wild|Gilgen|Roesch|Ohmura|2005}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref><ref name="Quaas2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Quaas |first1=Johannes |last2=Jia |first2=Hailing |last3=Smith |first3=Chris |last4=Albright |first4=Anna Lea |last5=Aas |first5=Wenche |last6=Bellouin |first6=Nicolas |last7=Boucher |first7=Olivier |last8=Doutriaux-Boucher |first8=Marie |last9=Forster |first9=Piers M. |last10=Grosvenor |first10=Daniel |last11=Jenkins |first11=Stuart |last12=Klimont |first12=Zbigniew |last13=Loeb |first13=Norman G. |last14=Ma |first14=Xiaoyan |last15=Naik |first15=Vaishali |last16=Paulot |first16=Fabien |last17=Stier |first17=Philip |last18=Wild |first18=Martin |last19=Myhre |first19=Gunnar |last20=Schulz |first20=Michael |date=21 September 2022 |title=Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing |url=https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12221/2022/ |journal=Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |volume=22 |issue=18 |pages=12221–12239 |language=en |doi=10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022 |s2cid=252446168 |hdl=20.500.11850/572791 |hdl-access=free |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ACP....2212221Q }}</ref>
Aerosols also have indirect effects on the [[Earth's energy budget]]. Sulfate aerosols act as [[cloud condensation nuclei]] and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.<ref>{{harvnb|Twomey|1977}}.</ref> They also reduce the [[Cloud physics#Collision-coalescence|growth of raindrops]], which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.<ref>{{harvnb|Albrecht|1989}}.</ref> Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in [[radiative forcing]].<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2/>
While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, [[black carbon]] in [[soot]] that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.<ref>{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}; {{harvnb|RIVM|2016}}.</ref> Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Sand|Berntsen|von Salzen|Flanner|2015}}</ref> The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-2020.aspx|title=IMO 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions|website=imo.org}}</ref> is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 3 July|2023}}</ref>
==== Solar and volcanic activity ====
{{Further|Solar activity and climate}}
[[File:2017 Global warming attribution - based on NCA4 Fig 3.3 - single-panel version.svg|thumb|right|upright=1.35| The [[Fourth National Climate Assessment]] ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts illustrating that neither solar nor volcanic activity can explain the observed warming.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I – Chapter 3: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ |website=science2017.globalchange.gov |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190923190450/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ |archive-date=23 September 2019 |year=2017 |pages=1–470 |url-status=dead}} Adapted directly from Fig. 3.3.</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Wuebbles |first1=D. J. |last2=Fahey |first2=D. W. |last3=Hibbard |first3=K. A. |last4=Deangelo |first4=B. |last5=Doherty |first5=S. |last6=Hayhoe |first6=K. |last7=Horton |first7=R. |last8=Kossin |first8=J. P. |last9=Taylor |first9=P. C. |last10=Waple |first10=A. M. |last11=Yohe |first11=C. P. |date=23 November 2018 |title=Climate Science Special Report / Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I /Executive Summary / Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |url-status=dead |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program |pages=1–470 |doi=10.7930/J0DJ5CTG |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190614150544/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |archive-date=14 June 2019 |doi-access=free |website=globalchange.gov |doi-broken-date=30 July 2025 }}</ref>]]
As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the [[climate system]].<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}.</ref> [[solar variation|Solar irradiance]] has been measured directly by [[satellite]]s,<ref>{{Harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=6}}</ref> and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2 /> Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the [[troposphere]]).<ref>{{cite web|title=Is the Sun causing global warming?|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|date=18 September 2014 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming|access-date=10 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190505160051/https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/|archive-date=5 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> The upper atmosphere (the [[stratosphere]]) would also be warming if the Sun was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling.<ref name="USGCRP-2009">{{Harvnb|USGCRP|2009|p=20}}.</ref>
This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007|pp=702–703}}; {{harvnb|Randel|Shine|Austin|Barnett|2009}}.</ref>
[[Types of volcanic eruptions#Plinian|Explosive volcanic eruptions]] can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/ |title=Tonga eruption blasted unprecedented amount of water into stratosphere |last=Greicius |first=Tony |date=2 August 2022 |website=NASA Global Climate Change |access-date=18 January 2024 |quote=Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth's surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn't inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.}}</ref> These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere.<ref name="USGCRP Chapter 2 2017 79">{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=79}}</ref> [[Volcanic gas|volcanic {{CO2}} emissions]] are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused {{CO2}} emissions.{{sfn|Fischer|Aiuppa|2020}} Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution.<ref name="USGCRP Chapter 2 2017 79"/>
==== Climate change feedbacks ====
{{Main|Climate change feedbacks|Climate sensitivity}}
[[File:NORTH POLE Ice (19626661335).jpg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming sunlight, while the ocean, being darker, reflects only 6%. As an area of sea ice melts and exposes more ocean, more heat is absorbed by the ocean, raising temperatures that melt still more ice. This is a positive feedback [[Ice–albedo feedback|process]].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html |title=Thermodynamics: Albedo |work=NSIDC |access-date=10 October 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011021602/https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html |archive-date=11 October 2017 |url-status=live }}</ref>]]
The climate system's response to an initial forcing is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. ''[[Positive feedback|Self-reinforcing]]'' or ''positive'' feedbacks increase the response, while ''[[Negative feedback|balancing]]'' or ''negative'' feedbacks reduce it.<ref>{{cite web |title=The study of Earth as an integrated system |publisher=Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology |year=2013 |series=Vitals Signs of the Planet |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190226190002/https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |archive-date=26 February 2019 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |url-status=live}}</ref> The main reinforcing feedbacks are the [[Water vapour feedback|water-vapour feedback]], the [[ice–albedo feedback]], and the net [[cloud feedback]].{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}}<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=58}}: "The net effect of changes in clouds in response to global warming is to amplify human-induced warming, that is, the net cloud feedback is positive (high confidence)"</ref> The primary balancing mechanism is [[radiative cooling]], as Earth's surface gives off more [[Infrared|heat]] to space in response to rising temperature.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–90}} In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of {{CO2}} on plant growth.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013|p=14}}</ref> Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=93}}: "Feedback processes are expected to become more positive overall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on multi-decadal time scales as the spatial pattern of surface warming evolves and global surface temperature increases."</ref>
These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air [[Relative humidity|can hold more moisture]] in the form of [[Water vapor|water vapour]], which is itself a potent greenhouse gas.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}} Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming.{{sfn|Williams|Ceppi|Katavouta|2020}} The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and [[Arctic amplification|accelerates Arctic warming]].<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 28 May|2013}}.</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Cohen|Screen|Furtado|Barlow|2014}}.</ref> This additional warming also contributes to [[permafrost]] thawing, which releases methane and {{CO2}} into the atmosphere.<ref name="Turetsky 2019">{{harvnb|Turetsky|Abbott|Jones|Anthony|2019}}</ref>
Around half of human-caused {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate.gov, 23 June|2022}}: "Carbon cycle experts estimate that natural "sinks"—processes that remove carbon from the atmosphere—on land and in the ocean absorbed the equivalent of about half of the carbon dioxide we emitted each year in the 2011–2020 decade."</ref> This fraction is not static and if future {{CO2}} emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-122|loc=Box TS.5, Figure 1}}</ref> This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants [[Soil carbon feedback|when they are warmer]].<ref>{{harvnb|Melillo|Frey|DeAngelis|Werner|2017}}: Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.</ref><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=133, 144}}.</ref> The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in [[thermohaline circulation]] and [[phytoplankton]] distribution.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=93–95}}<ref name="Liu2022">{{cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Y. |last2=Moore |first2=J. K. |last3=Primeau |first3=F. |last4=Wang |first4=W. L. |date=22 December 2022 |title=Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=13 |pages=83–90 |doi=10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7 |osti=2242376 |s2cid=255028552 }}</ref><ref name="PearceYale3602023"/> Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|pp=58, 59}}: "Clouds remain the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in climate feedbacks."</ref> is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015}}: "the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth's climate (over multi-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway."</ref>
== Modelling ==
{{Further|Climate model|Climate change scenario}}
[[File:Greenhouse Effect (2017 NASA data).svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Most sunlight passes through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface, then greenhouse gases absorb most of the heat the Earth radiates in response. Adding to greenhouse gases increases this insulating effect, causing an [[Earth's energy budget|energy imbalance]] that heats the planet up.]]
A [[climate model]] is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}.</ref> Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#types "What are the different types of climate models?"]}}</ref> Models are used to estimate the degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the [[Climate sensitivity|strength of climate feedbacks]].<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#who "Who does climate modelling around the world?"]}}</ref> Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#what "What is a climate model?"]}}</ref>
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}, FAQ 8.1.</ref> Past models have underestimated the rate of [[Arctic shrinkage]]<ref>{{harvnb|Stroeve|Holland|Meier|Scambos|2007}}; {{harvnb|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}}</ref> and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.<ref>{{harvnb|Liepert|Previdi|2009}}.</ref> Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Rahmstorf|Cazenave|Church|Hansen|2007}}; {{harvnb|Mitchum|Masters|Hamlington|Fasullo|2018}}</ref> The 2017 United States-published [[National Climate Assessment]] notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017}}.</ref> Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Hébert |first1=R. |last2=Herzschuh |first2=U. |last3=Laepple |first3=T. |date=31 October 2022 |title=Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations |journal=[[Nature Geoscience]] |volume=15 |issue=1 |pages=899–905 |doi=10.1038/s41561-022-01056-4 |pmid=36817575 |pmc=7614181 |bibcode=2022NatGe..15..899H }}</ref>
A [[Integrated assessment modelling|subset of climate models]] add societal factors to a physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth, and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#inout "What are the inputs and outputs for a climate model?"]}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Matthews|Gillett|Stott|Zickfeld|2009}}</ref> Depending on the [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways|socioeconomic scenario]] and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}; {{harvnb|Meinshausen|2019|p=462}}.</ref>
== Impacts ==
{{Main|Effects of climate change}}
[[File:202505 Escalation of extreme heat - 247 countries - attribution to climate change.svg |thumb |upright=1.3 |In virtually all countries and territories around the world, scientists in the field of [[extreme event attribution]] have concluded that human-caused global warming has increased the number of days of extreme heat events over long-term norms.<ref name=WWA_20250530>{{cite web |last1=Giguere |first1=Otto |last2=Tanenenbaum |first2=Vahlbert |title=Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Report_-Climate-Change-and-the-Escalation-of-Global-Extreme-Heat-Heat-Action-Day-2025.pdf |publisher=Climate Central, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and World Weather Attribution |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250531004758/https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Report_-Climate-Change-and-the-Escalation-of-Global-Extreme-Heat-Heat-Action-Day-2025.pdf |archive-date=31 May 2025 |date=30 May 2025 |url-status=live}} Click on "Download the data", and in spreadsheet choose "Countries and territories" tab at bottom to view raw data</ref>]]
=== Environmental effects ===
{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans|Effects of climate change on the water cycle}}
The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, [[Effects of climate change on oceans|affecting oceans]], ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Hansen|Sato|Hearty|Ruedy|2016}}; {{harvnb|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}.</ref> Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017|p=415}}.</ref> Extremely wet or dry events within the [[monsoon]] period have increased in India and East Asia.<ref>{{harvnb|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Stott|2017}}.</ref> Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Fei |last2=Wang |first2=Bin |last3=Ouyang |first3=Yu |last4=Wang |first4=Hui |last5=Qiao |first5=Shaobo |last6=Chen |first6=Guosen |last7=Dong |first7=Wenjie |date=19 April 2022 |title=Intraseasonal variability of global land monsoon precipitation and its recent trend |journal=npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |language=en |volume=5 |issue=1 |page=30 |doi=10.1038/s41612-022-00253-7 |bibcode=2022npCAS...5...30L |issn=2397-3722 |doi-access=free }}</ref> The rainfall rate and intensity of [[Tropical cyclones and climate change|hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing]],<ref name="USGCRP-2017">{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 9|2017|p=260}}.</ref> and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming.<ref>{{cite journal |first1=Joshua |last1=Studholme |first2=Alexey V. |last2=Fedorov |first3=Sergey K. |last3=Gulev |first4=Kerry |last4=Emanuel |first5=Kevin |last5=Hodges |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00859-1 |title=Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates |date=29 December 2021 |journal=[[Nature Geoscience]] |volume=15 |pages=14–28 |doi=10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1 |s2cid=245540084}}</ref> The frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hurricanes and Climate Change |url=https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/ |website=[[Center for Climate and Energy Solutions]] |date=10 July 2020}}</ref>
[[File:Sea level history and projections.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA|2017}}.</ref>]]
Global sea level is rising as a consequence of [[thermal expansion]] and [[Retreat of glaciers since 1850|the melting of glaciers]] and [[ice sheets]]. Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8 cm per decade between 2014 and 2023.<ref>{{harvnb|WMO|2024a|p=6}}.</ref> Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62 cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76 cm under an intermediate one and 65–101 cm under a very high emission scenario.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=1302}}</ref> [[Marine ice sheet instability]] processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values,<ref>{{harvnb|DeConto|Pollard|2016}}</ref> including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.{{sfn|Bamber|Oppenheimer|Kopp|Aspinall|2019}}
Climate change has led to decades of [[Arctic sea ice decline|shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice]].<ref>{{harvnb|Zhang|Lindsay|Steele|Schweiger|2008}}</ref> While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of 2 °C.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations cause more {{CO2}} to dissolve in the oceans, which is [[ocean acidification|making them more acidic]].<ref>{{Harvnb|Doney|Fabry|Feely|Kleypas|2009}}.</ref> Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water,<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsch|Brix|Ito|Frenzel|2011}}</ref> its concentrations in the ocean [[ocean deoxygenation|are decreasing]], and [[Dead zone (ecology)|dead zones]] are expanding.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}; {{cite web |title=Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms |date=5 September 2013 |url=https://www.epa.gov/habs/climate-change-and-freshwater-harmful-algal-blooms |publisher=[[United States Environmental Protection Agency|EPA]] |access-date=11 September 2020}}</ref>
=== Tipping points and long-term impacts ===
[[File:Tipping_points_2022_list.jpeg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Different levels of global warming may cause different parts of Earth's climate system to reach tipping points that cause transitions to different states.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Tipping Elements – big risks in the Earth System |url=https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/output/infodesk/tipping-elements |publisher=[[Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research]] |access-date=31 January 2024 }}</ref><ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" />]]
{{Main|Tipping points in the climate system}}
Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through '[[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping points]]'—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=283}}.</ref><ref>{{Harvnb|Carbon Brief, 10 February|2020}}</ref> For instance, the [[Greenland ice sheet]] is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5 °C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place.<ref name="Bochow2023">{{cite journal |last1=Bochow |first1=Nils |last2=Poltronieri |first2=Anna |last3=Robinson |first3=Alexander |last4=Montoya |first4=Marisa |last5=Rypdal |first5=Martin |last6=Boers |first6=Niklas |date=18 October 2023 |title=Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet |journal=[[Nature (journal)|Nature]] |volume=622 |issue=7983 |pages=528–536 |bibcode=2023Natur.622..528B |doi=10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9 |pmc=10584691 |pmid=37853149}}</ref> While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major [[ocean current]]s like the [[Atlantic meridional overturning circulation]] (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the [[Amazon rainforest]] and [[coral reefs]] can unfold in a matter of decades.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Armstrong McKay |first1=David I. |last2=Staal |first2=Arie |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Winkelmann |first4=Ricarda |last5=Sakschewski |first5=Boris |last6=Loriani |first6=Sina |last7=Fetzer |first7=Ingo |last8=Cornell |first8=Sarah E. |last9=Rockström |first9=Johan |last10=Lenton |first10=Timothy M. |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |volume=377 |issue=6611 |pages=eabn7950 |doi=10.1126/science.abn7950 |pmid=36074831 |hdl=10871/131584 |s2cid=252161375 |issn=0036-8075|hdl-access=free }}</ref> The [[Abrupt climate change|collapse of the AMOC]] would be a severe climate catastrophe, resulting in a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Ditlevsen |first1=Peter |last2=Ditlevsen |first2=Susanne |date=25 July 2023 |title=Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |journal=Nature Communications |language=en |volume=14 |issue=1 |pages=4254 |doi=10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w |pmid=37491344 |issn=2041-1723|pmc=10368695 |arxiv=2304.09160 |bibcode=2023NatCo..14.4254D }}</ref>
The long-term [[effects of climate change on oceans]] include further ice melt, [[Ocean temperature#Increasing temperature due to climate change|ocean warming]], sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=21}}</ref> The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to {{CO2}}'s long atmospheric lifetime.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|pp=88–89|loc=FAQ 12.3}}</ref> The result is an estimated total sea level rise of {{convert|2.3|m/°C|ft/°F}} after 2000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Schneider|Oppenheimer|Yohe|2009}}; {{harvnb|Levermann|Clark|Marzeion|Milne|2013}}</ref> Oceanic {{CO2}} uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1112}} Deep oceans (below {{convert|2000|m|ft}}) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Oschlies |first1=Andreas |title=A committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss |journal=Nature Communications |date=16 April 2021 |volume=12 |issue=1 |article-number=2307 |doi=10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4 |pmid=33863893 |pmc=8052459 |bibcode=2021NatCo..12.2307O }}</ref> Further, the [[West Antarctic ice sheet]] appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase the sea levels by at least {{convert|3.3|m|ftin|abbr=on}} over approximately 2000 years.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="Lau2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Lau |first1=Sally C. Y. |last2=Wilson |first2=Nerida G. |last3=Golledge |first3=Nicholas R. |last4=Naish |first4=Tim R. |last5=Watts |first5=Phillip C. |last6=Silva |first6=Catarina N. S. |last7=Cooke |first7=Ira R. |last8=Allcock |first8=A. Louise |last9=Mark |first9=Felix C. |last10=Linse |first10=Katrin |date=21 December 2023 |title=Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial |url=https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/58369/1/science.ade0664%281%29.pdf |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |volume=382 |issue=6677 |pages=1384–1389 |bibcode=2023Sci...382.1384L |doi=10.1126/science.ade0664 |pmid=38127761 |s2cid=266436146}}</ref><ref name="Naughten2023">{{cite journal |last1=Naughten |first1=Kaitlin A. |last2=Holland |first2=Paul R. |last3=De Rydt |first3=Jan |date=23 October 2023 |title=Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |journal=[[Nature Climate Change]] |volume=13 |issue=11 |pages=1222–1228 |bibcode=2023NatCC..13.1222N |doi=10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x |s2cid=264476246 |doi-access=free}}</ref>
===
<!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article). -->
{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans|Effects of climate change on biomes}}
Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher [[altitudes]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=218}}.</ref> For instance, the range of hundreds of North American birds has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5 km/year over the past 55 years.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Martins |first1=Paulo Mateus |last2=Anderson |first2=Marti J. |last3=Sweatman |first3=Winston L. |last4=Punnett |first4=Andrew J. |date=9 April 2024 |title=Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds |journal=[[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America]] |language=en |volume=121 |issue=15 |pages=e2307525121 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2307525121 |issn=0027-8424 |pmc=11009622 |pmid=38557189 |bibcode=2024PNAS..12107525M }}</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced [[ecosystem]] productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear.{{Sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=133}} A related phenomenon driven by climate change is [[woody plant encroachment]], affecting up to 500 million hectares globally.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Deng |first1=Yuanhong |last2=Li |first2=Xiaoyan |last3=Shi |first3=Fangzhong |last4=Hu |first4=Xia |date=December 2021 |title=Woody plant encroachment enhanced global vegetation greening and ecosystem water-use efficiency |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13386 |journal=[[Global Ecology and Biogeography]] |language=en |volume=30 |issue=12 |pages=2337–2353 |bibcode=2021GloEB..30.2337D |doi=10.1111/geb.13386 |issn=1466-822X |access-date=10 June 2024 |via=Wiley Online Library|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the [[Desertification|expansion of deserts]] in the [[subtropics]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}; {{harvnb|Zeng|Yoon|2009}}.</ref> The size and speed of global warming is making [[Ecological threshold|abrupt changes in ecosystems]] more likely.{{Sfn|Turner|Calder|Cumming|Hughes|2020|p=1}} Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the [[extinction]] of many species.{{Sfn|Urban|2015}}
The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land.<ref>{{harvnb|Poloczanska|Brown|Sydeman|Kiessling|2013}}; {{harvnb|Lenoir|Bertrand|Comte|Bourgeaud|2020}}</ref> Just as on land, [[Marine heatwave|heat waves in the ocean]] occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, [[kelp]], and [[seabirds]].<ref>{{harvnb|Smale|Wernberg|Oliver|Thomsen|2019}}</ref> Ocean acidification makes it harder for [[Marine biogenic calcification|marine calcifying organisms]] such as [[mussel]]s, [[barnacle]]s and corals to [[Biomineralization|produce shells and skeletons]]; and heatwaves have [[Coral bleaching|bleached coral reefs]].{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=13}} [[Harmful algal blooms]] enhanced by climate change and [[eutrophication]] lower oxygen levels, disrupt [[food web]]s and cause great loss of marine life.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}</ref> Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=451}} Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Azevedo-Schmidt |first1=Lauren |last2=Meineke |first2=Emily K. |last3=Currano |first3=Ellen D. |date=18 October 2022 |title=Insect herbivory within modern forests is greater than fossil localities |journal=[[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America]] |language=en |volume=119 |issue=42 |pages=e2202852119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2202852119 |doi-access=free |pmid=36215482 |pmc=9586316 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11902852A |issn=0027-8424 }}</ref>
{| class="center toccolours"
|+ '''Climate change impacts on the environment'''
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:Bleachedcoral.jpg|alt=Underwater photograph of branching coral that is bleached white|[[Ecological collapse]]. [[Coral bleaching]] from [[Marine heatwave|thermal stress]] has damaged the [[Great Barrier Reef]] and threatens [[coral reef]]s worldwide.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/coral-reef-risk-outlook/ |title=Coral Reef Risk Outlook |date=2 January 2012 |access-date=4 April 2020 |publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] |quote=At present, local human activities, coupled with past thermal stress, threaten an estimated 75 percent of the world's reefs. By 2030, estimates predict more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by local human activities, warming, and acidification, with nearly 60% facing high, very high, or critical threat levels.}}</ref>
File:Orroral Valley Fire viewed from Tuggeranong January 2020.jpg|alt=Photograph of evening in a valley settlement. The skyline in the hills beyond is lit up red from the fires.|[[Extreme weather]]. Drought and high temperatures worsened the [[2019–20 Australian bushfire season#Climate change|2020 bushfires in Australia]].<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}}.</ref>
File:National Park Service Thawing permafrost (27759123542).jpg|alt=The green landscape is interrupted by a huge muddy scar where the ground has subsided.|[[Climate change in the Arctic|Arctic warming]]. [[Permafrost#Impacts of climate change|Permafrost thaws]] undermine infrastructure and [[Arctic methane emissions|release methane]], a greenhouse gas.<ref name="Turetsky 2019"/>
File:Endangered arctic - starving polar bear (cropped).jpg|alt=An emaciated polar bear stands atop the remains of a melting ice floe.|[[Habitat destruction]]. Many arctic animals rely on sea ice, which has been disappearing in a warming Arctic.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014|p=1596}}: "Within 50 to 70 years, loss of hunting habitats may lead to elimination of polar bears from seasonally ice-covered areas, where two-thirds of their world population currently live."</ref>
File:Mountain Pine Beetle damage in the Fraser Experimental Forest 2007.jpg|alt=Photograph of a large area of forest. The green trees are interspersed with large patches of damaged or dead trees turning purple-brown and light red.|[[Climate change and invasive species|Pest propagation]]. Mild winters allow more [[mountain pine beetle|pine beetles]] to survive to kill large swaths of forest.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.nps.gov/romo/learn/nature/climatechange.htm |title=What a changing climate means for Rocky Mountain National Park |publisher=[[National Park Service]] |access-date=9 April 2020}}</ref>
</gallery>
|}
=== Humans ===
<!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article). -->
{{Main|Effects of climate change}}
[[File:20211109 Frequency of extreme weather for different degrees of global warming - bar chart IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Extreme weather will be progressively more common as the Earth warms.<ref name=IPCC6AR_ExtremeEvents>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|loc=Fig. SPM.6
|page=SPM-23}}</ref>]]
The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in the world.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Lenton |first1=Timothy M. |last2=Xu |first2=Chi |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Ghadiali |first4=Ashish |last5=Loriani |first5=Sina |last6=Sakschewski |first6=Boris |last7=Zimm |first7=Caroline |last8=Ebi |first8=Kristie L. |last9=Dunn |first9=Robert R. |last10=Svenning |first10=Jens-Christian |last11=Scheffer |first11=Marten |title=Quantifying the human cost of global warming |journal=[[Nature Sustainability]] |year=2023 |volume=6 |issue=10 |pages=1237–1247 |doi=10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2023NatSu...6.1237L |hdl=10871/132650 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014|pp=983, 1008}}</ref> with low-latitude, [[Developing country|less developed areas]] facing the greatest risk.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014|p=1077}}.</ref> Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2|p=8}}</ref> The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2.3|p=13}}</ref>
==== Health and food ====
{{Main|Effects of climate change on agriculture#Global food security and undernutrition|Effects of climate change on human health}}
The [[World Health Organization]] calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century.<ref name=WHO_Nov_2023/> Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses.<ref name=Romanello_et_al_2023>{{harvnb|Romanello|2023}}</ref> [[Extreme weather]] events affect public health, and [[Food security|food]] and [[water security]].<ref name=nca2018_ch14>{{harvnb|Ebi et al.|2018}}</ref><ref name=Romanello_et_al_2022>{{harvnb|Romanello|2022}}</ref><ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=9}}</ref> [[Effects of climate change#Heat waves and temperature extremes|Temperature extremes]] lead to increased illness and death.<ref name=nca2018_ch14/><ref name=Romanello_et_al_2022/> Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.<ref name=Romanello_et_al_2022/><ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9/> It can affect transmission of [[infectious diseases]], such as [[dengue fever]] and [[malaria]].<ref name=Romanello_et_al_2023/><ref name=nca2018_ch14/> According to the [[World Economic Forum]], 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|World Economic Forum|2024|p=4}}</ref> 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths.<ref name=Carbon_Brief_2017>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 June|2017}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Mora et al.|2017}}</ref> By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.<ref name=Carbon_Brief_2017/><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch6|2022|p=988}}</ref>
While total [[crop yield]]s have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, [[Effects of climate change on agriculture|climate change has already decreased the rate of yield growth]].<ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9/> [[Climate change and fisheries|Fisheries have been negatively affected]] in multiple regions.<ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9/> While [[agricultural productivity]] has been positively affected in some high [[latitude]] areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected.<ref name=IPCC_AR6_WG2_p9/> According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from [[malnutrition]] by 2050 and [[Stunted growth|stunting]] in children.<ref>{{harvnb|World Economic Forum|2024|p=24}}</ref> With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch5|2022|p=748}}</ref> If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Technical Summary|2022|p=63}}</ref>
==== Livelihoods and inequality ====
{{Further|Economic analysis of climate change|Climate security}}
Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences.<ref>{{harvnb|DeFries|Edenhofer|Halliday|Heal|2019|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Krogstrup|Oman|2019|p=10}}.</ref> Severe impacts are expected in South-East Asia and [[Climate change in Africa|sub-Saharan Africa]], where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources.<ref name="FAO-2021">{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cb7431en |title=Women's leadership and gender equality in climate action and disaster risk reduction in Africa − A call for action |publisher=[[Food and Agriculture Organization|FAO]] & The African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group |year=2021 |isbn=978-92-5-135234-2 |___location=Accra |doi=10.4060/cb7431en |s2cid=243488592 }}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|pp=796–797}}</ref> [[Heat stress]] can prevent outdoor labourers from working. If warming reaches 4 °C then labour capacity in those regions could be reduced by 30 to 50%.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=725}}</ref> The [[World Bank]] estimates that between 2016 and 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation.{{Sfn|Hallegatte|Bangalore|Bonzanigo|Fay|2016|p=12}}
Inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|p=796}}.</ref> Major difficulties in mitigating, adapting to, and recovering from climate shocks are faced by marginalized people who have less control over resources.<ref name="Grabe-2014">Grabe, Grose and Dutt, 2014; FAO, 2011; FAO, 2021a; Fisher and Carr, 2015; IPCC, 2014; Resurrección et al., 2019; UNDRR, 2019; Yeboah et al., 2019.</ref><ref name="FAO-2021" /> [[Indigenous people]], who are subsistent on their land and ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Climate Change {{!}} United Nations For Indigenous Peoples |url=https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/climate-change.html |access-date=29 April 2022 |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs}}</ref> An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in [[armed conflict]] has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.{{Sfn|Mach|Kraan|Adger|Buhaug|2019}}
While women are not inherently more at risk from climate change and shocks, limits on women's resources and discriminatory gender norms constrain their adaptive capacity and resilience.<ref name="FAO-2023">{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en |title=The status of women in agrifood systems – Overview |publisher=FAO |year=2023 |___location=Rome |doi=10.4060/cc5060en |s2cid=258145984 |language=EN}}</ref> For example, women's work burdens, including hours worked in agriculture, tend to decline less than men's during climate shocks such as heat stress.<ref name="FAO-2023" />
====Climate migration====
{{main|Climate migration}}
Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened by sea level rise, which makes [[urban flooding]] more common. Sometimes, land is permanently lost to the sea.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=328}} This could lead to [[statelessness]] for people in island nations, such as the [[Maldives]] and [[Tuvalu]].<ref>{{harvnb|UNHCR|2011|p=3}}.</ref> In some regions, the rise in temperature and humidity may be too severe for humans to adapt to.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=399}} With worst-case climate change, models project that areas almost one-third of humanity live in might become Sahara-like uninhabitable and extremely hot climates.<ref>{{harvnb|Balsari|Dresser|Leaning|2020}}</ref>
These factors can drive [[Climate migrant|climate]] or [[Environmental migrant|environmental migration]], within and between countries.<ref name="Cattaneo-2019">{{harvnb|Cattaneo|Beine|Fröhlich|Kniveton|2019}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=15, 53}}</ref> More people are expected to be displaced because of sea level rise, extreme weather and conflict from increased competition over natural resources. Climate change may also increase vulnerability, leading to "trapped populations" who are not able to move due to a lack of resources.<ref>{{harvnb|Flavell|2014|p=38}}; {{harvnb|Kaczan|Orgill-Meyer|2020}}</ref>
{| class="center toccolours"
|+ '''Climate change impacts on people'''
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:Village Telly in Mali.jpg|Environmental migration. Sparser rainfall leads to [[desertification]] that harms agriculture and can displace populations. Shown: Telly, Mali (2008).<ref>{{harvnb|Serdeczny|Adams|Baarsch|Coumou|2016}}.</ref>
File:Corn shows the affect of drought.jpg|[[Effects of climate change on agriculture|Agricultural changes]]. Droughts, rising temperatures, and extreme weather negatively impact agriculture. Shown: Texas, US (2013).<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=439, 464}}.</ref>
File:Acqua alta in Piazza San Marco-original.jpg|[[Tidal flooding]]. Sea-level rise increases flooding in low-lying coastal regions. Shown: [[Venice#Flooding|Venice]], Italy (2004).<ref name="NOAAnuisance">{{cite web|url=http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nuisance-flooding.html |title=What is nuisance flooding? |author=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] |access-date=April 8, 2020}}</ref>
File:US Navy 071120-M-8966H-005 An aerial view over southern Bangladesh reveals extensive flooding as a result of Cyclone Sidr.jpg|[[Tropical cyclones and climate change|Storm intensification]]. Bangladesh after [[Cyclone Sidr]] (2007) is an example of catastrophic flooding from increased rainfall.<ref>{{harvnb|Kabir|Khan|Ball|Caldwell|2016}}.</ref>
File:Argentina geos5 202211.jpg|Heat wave intensification. Events like the [[2022 Southern Cone heat wave]] are becoming more common.<ref>{{harvnb|Van Oldenborgh|Philip|Kew|Vautard|2019}}.</ref>
</gallery>
|}
== Reducing and recapturing emissions ==
{{detail|Climate change mitigation}}
[[File:Greenhouse gas emission scenarios 01.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, based on policies and pledges as of November 2021]]
Climate change can be mitigated by reducing the rate at which greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, and by increasing the rate at which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=125}}.</ref> To limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be [[Carbon neutrality|net-zero]] by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2 °C target.<ref name="IPCC-2018 p12">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=12}}</ref> This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=15}}</ref>
The [[United Nations Environment Programme]] estimates that countries need to triple their [[Nationally determined contribution|pledges under the Paris Agreement]] within the next decade to limit global warming to 2 °C. An even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=XX}}</ref> With pledges made under the Paris Agreement as of 2024, there would be a 66% chance that global warming is kept under 2.8 °C by the end of the century (range: 1.9–3.7 °C, depending on exact implementation and technological progress). When only considering current policies, this raises to 3.1 °C.{{sfn|United Nations Environment Programme|2024|pp=33, 34}} Globally, limiting warming to 2 °C may result in higher economic benefits than economic costs.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch3|2022|p=300}}: "The global benefits of pathways limiting warming to 2 °C (>67%) outweigh global mitigation costs over the 21st century, if aggregated economic impacts of climate change are at the moderate to high end of the assessed range, and a weight consistent with economic theory is given to economic impacts over the long term. This holds true even without accounting for benefits in other sustainable development dimensions or nonmarket damages from climate change (medium confidence)."</ref>
Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=109}}.</ref> most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions.<ref name="Teske, ed. 2019 xxiii">{{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxiii}}.</ref> To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry,<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}</ref> such as preventing [[deforestation]] and restoring natural ecosystems by [[reforestation]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=266}}: "Where reforestation is the restoration of natural ecosystems, it benefits both carbon sequestration and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services."</ref>
Other approaches to mitigating climate change have a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C typically project the large-scale use of [[carbon dioxide removal]] methods over the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}</ref> There are concerns, though, about over-reliance on these technologies, and environmental impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}</ref>
[[Solar radiation modification]] (SRM) is a proposal for reducing global warming by reflecting some sunlight away from Earth and back into space. Because it does not reduce greenhouse gas concentrations, it would not address ocean acidification<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch5|2021|pp=|p=768}}</ref> and is not considered mitigation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|p=619}}</ref> SRM should be considered only as a supplement to mitigation, not a replacement for it,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|p=624}}</ref> due to risks such as rapid warming if it were abruptly stopped and not restarted.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|p=629}}</ref> The most-studied approach is [[stratospheric aerosol injection]].<ref name="auto">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch14|2022|pp=|p=1494}}</ref> SRM could reduce global warming and some of its impacts, though imperfectly.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|p=625}}</ref> It poses environmental risks, such as changes to rainfall patterns,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|pp=625–627}}</ref> as well as political challenges, such as who would decide whether to use it.<ref name="auto"/>
=== Clean energy ===
{{Main|Sustainable energy|Sustainable transport}}
[[File:Global Energy Consumption.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary [[World energy consumption|global energy]] sources even as [[Renewable energy|renewables]] have begun rapidly increasing.<ref>{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}</ref>]]
[[File:Lisberg Burg Windräder Solar power PC313027.jpg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Wind and solar power, Germany]]
Renewable energy is key to limiting climate change.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46" /> For decades, fossil fuels have accounted for roughly 80% of the world's energy use.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023|pp=18}}</ref> The remaining share has been split between nuclear power and renewables (including [[hydropower]], [[bioenergy]], wind and solar power and [[geothermal energy]]).<ref>{{harvnb|REN21|2020|p=32|loc=Fig.1}}.</ref> Fossil fuel use is expected to peak in absolute terms prior to 2030 and then to decline, with coal use experiencing the sharpest reductions.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023|pp=18,26}}</ref> Renewables represented 86% of all new electricity generation installed in 2023.<ref name="IRENA">{{cite web |title=Record Growth in Renewables, but Progress Needs to be Equitable |url=https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2024/Mar/Record-Growth-in-Renewables-but-Progress-Needs-to-be-Equitable |website=IRENA |date=27 March 2024}}</ref> Other forms of clean energy, such as nuclear and hydropower, currently have a larger share of the energy supply. However, their future growth forecasts appear limited in comparison.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA|2021|p=57, Fig 2.5}}; {{harvnb|Teske|Pregger|Naegler|Simon|2019|p=180, Table 8.1}}</ref>
While [[Photovoltaic system|solar panels]] and onshore wind are now among the cheapest forms of adding new power generation capacity in many locations,<ref>{{harvnb|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}}; {{harvnb| IEA – Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020}}</ref> green energy policies are needed to achieve a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/ |title=IPCC Working Group III report: Mitigation of Climate Change |date=4 April 2022 |access-date=19 January 2024 |publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}}</ref> To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|loc=Figure 2.15|p=131}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Teske|2019|pp=409–410}}.</ref>
Electricity generated from renewable sources would also need to become the main energy source for heating and transport.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3|p=XXIII}}; {{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxvii, Fig.5}}.</ref> Transport can switch away from [[internal combustion engine]] vehicles and towards [[electric vehicle]]s, public transit, and [[Active mobility|active transport]] (cycling and walking).<ref name="IPCC-2018 p142">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=142–144}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3 & p. 49}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |year=2016 |title=Transport emissions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en |access-date=2 January 2022 |website=Climate action |publisher=[[European Commission]] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211010225533/https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en |archive-date=10 October 2021 |url-status=live}}</ref> For shipping and flying, low-carbon fuels would reduce emissions.<ref name="IPCC-2018 p142" /> Heating could be increasingly decarbonized with technologies like [[heat pump]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|p=697}}; {{harvnb|NREL|2017|pp=vi, 12}}</ref>
There are obstacles to the continued rapid growth of clean energy, including renewables.<ref>{{harvnb|Berrill|Arvesen|Scholz|Gils|2016}}.</ref> Wind and solar produce energy [[Variable renewable energy|intermittently and with seasonal variability]]. Traditionally, [[Pumped-storage hydroelectricity|hydro dams with reservoirs]] and fossil fuel power plants have been used when variable energy production is low. Going forward, [[Battery storage power station|battery storage]] can be expanded, [[Demand response|energy demand and supply]] can be matched, and long-distance [[Electric power transmission|transmission]] can smooth variability of renewable outputs.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=46}}; {{harvnb|Vox, 20 September|2019}}; {{cite journal |title=The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation |year=2018 |last1=Sepulveda |first1=Nestor A. |last2=Jenkins |first2=Jesse D. |last3=De Sisternes |first3=Fernando J. |last4=Lester |first4=Richard K. |journal=[[Joule (journal)|Joule]] |volume=2 |issue=11 |pages=2403–2420 |doi=10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2018Joule...2.2403S }}</ref> Bioenergy is often not carbon-neutral and may have negative consequences for food security.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=324–325}}.</ref> The growth of nuclear power is constrained by controversy around [[radioactive waste]], [[nuclear proliferation|nuclear weapon proliferation]], and [[Nuclear accident|accidents]].<ref>{{Citec|last1=Gill |first1=Matthew |last2=Livens |first2=Francis |last3=Peakman |first3=Aiden |in=Letcher |year=2020 |pages=147–149 |chapter=Nuclear Fission}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Horvath |first1=Akos |last2=Rachlew |first2=Elisabeth |date=January 2016 |title=Nuclear power in the 21st century: Challenges and possibilities |journal=[[Ambio]] |volume=45 |issue=Suppl 1 |pages=S38–49 |doi=10.1007/s13280-015-0732-y |issn=1654-7209 |pmc=4678124 |pmid=26667059|bibcode=2016Ambio..45S..38H }}</ref> Hydropower growth is limited by the fact that the best sites have been developed, and new projects are confronting increased social and environmental concerns.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hydropower |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/hydropower |website=iea.org |publisher=[[International Energy Agency]] |access-date=12 October 2020 |quote=Hydropower generation is estimated to have increased by over 2% in 2019 owing to continued recovery from drought in Latin America as well as strong capacity expansion and good water availability in China (...) capacity expansion has been losing speed. This downward trend is expected to continue, due mainly to less large-project development in China and Brazil, where concerns over social and environmental impacts have restricted projects.}}</ref>
[[Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of energy sources|Low-carbon energy]] improves human health by minimizing climate change as well as reducing air pollution deaths,<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1854}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}</ref> which were estimated at 7 million annually in 2016.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1837}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2016}}</ref> Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about a million of those lives per year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could save millions and simultaneously increase [[energy security]] and reduce poverty.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}; {{harvnb|Vandyck|Keramidas|Kitous|Spadaro|2018}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=97}}: "Limiting warming to 1.5 °C can be achieved synergistically with poverty alleviation and improved energy security and can provide large public health benefits through improved air quality, preventing millions of premature deaths. However, specific mitigation measures, such as bioenergy, may result in trade-offs that require consideration."</ref> Improving air quality also has economic benefits which may be larger than mitigation costs.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022|p=300}}</ref>
=== Energy conservation ===
{{Main|Efficient energy use|Energy conservation}}
Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=97}}</ref> If less energy is needed, there is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the electricity grid, and minimizes [[emission intensity|carbon-intensive]] infrastructure development.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|p=29}}; {{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}</ref> Major increases in energy efficiency investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level of investment in renewable energy.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=155|loc=Fig. 2.27}}</ref> Several [[COVID-19 pandemic|COVID-19]] related changes in energy use patterns, energy efficiency investments, and funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult and uncertain.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}</ref>
Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In the transport sector, passengers and freight can switch to more efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric vehicles.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=142}}</ref> Industrial strategies to reduce energy demand include improving heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products, and increasing product lifetimes.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=138–140}}</ref> In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings, and higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=141–142}}</ref> The use of technologies like heat pumps can also increase building energy efficiency.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|pp=686–694}}.</ref>
=== Agriculture and industry ===
{{See also|Sustainable agriculture|Green industrial policy}}
[[File:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Taking into account direct and indirect emissions, industry is the sector with the highest share of global emissions. Data as of 2019 from the IPCC.]] Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing the further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|p=1}}</ref> A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two-thirds from 2010 levels. These include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|pp=1, 3}}</ref>
On the demand side, a key component of reducing emissions is shifting people towards [[plant-based diets]].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=22|loc=B.6.2}}</ref> Eliminating the production of livestock for [[Environmental impact of meat production|meat and dairy]] would eliminate about 3/4ths of all emissions from agriculture and other land use.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=487,488|loc=FIGURE 5.12}} Humans on a vegan exclusive diet would save about 7.9 Gt{{CO2}} equivalent per year by 2050 {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=51}} Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use used an average of 12 Gt{{CO2}} per year between 2007 and 2016 (23% of total anthropogenic emissions).</ref> Livestock also occupy 37% of ice-free land area on Earth and consume feed from the 12% of land area used for crops, driving deforestation and land degradation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=82, 162|loc=FIGURE 1.1}}</ref>
Steel and cement production are responsible for about 13% of industrial {{CO2}} emissions. In these industries, carbon-intensive materials such as coke and lime play an integral role in the production, so that reducing {{CO2}} emissions requires research into alternative chemistries.<ref>{{cite web|title=Low and zero emissions in the steel and cement industries|url=https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/GGSD2019_IssuePaper_CementSteel.pdf|pages=11, 19–22}}</ref> Where energy production or {{CO2}}-intensive [[Heavy industry|heavy industries]] continue to produce waste {{CO2}}, technology can sometimes be used to capture and store most of the gas instead of releasing it to the atmosphere.<ref name=":22">{{Cite web |last1=Lebling |first1=Katie |last2=Gangotra |first2=Ankita |last3=Hausker |first3=Karl |last4=Byrum |first4=Zachary |date=13 November 2023 |title=7 Things to Know About Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration |url=https://www.wri.org/insights/carbon-capture-technology |publisher=[[World Resources Institute]] |language=en}}[[File:CC-BY_icon.svg|50x50px]] Text was copied from this source, which is available under a [[creativecommons:by/4.0/|Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License]]</ref> This technology, [[carbon capture and storage]] (CCS), could have a critical but limited role in reducing emissions.<ref name=":22" /> It is relatively expensive<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|p=38}}</ref> and has been deployed only to an extent that removes around 0.1% of annual greenhouse gas emissions.<ref name=":22" />
=== Carbon dioxide removal ===
{{Main|Carbon dioxide removal|Carbon sequestration}}
[[File:Carbon Dioxide Partitioning.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Most {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by [[carbon sink]]s, including plant growth, soil uptake, and ocean uptake ([[Global Carbon Project#Global Carbon Budget|2020 Global Carbon Budget]]).]]
Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of {{CO2}} beyond naturally occurring levels.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}: {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=189–193}}.</ref> Reforestation and [[afforestation]] (planting forests where there were none before) are among the most mature sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food security concerns.<ref>{{harvnb|Kreidenweis|Humpenöder|Stevanović|Bodirsky|2016}}</ref> Farmers can promote sequestration of [[Carbon farming|carbon in soils]] through practices such as use of winter [[cover crops]], reducing the intensity and frequency of [[tillage]], and using compost and manure as soil amendments.<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=95–102}}</ref> Forest and landscape restoration yields many benefits for the climate, including greenhouse gas emissions sequestration and reduction.<ref name="Duchelle-2022" /> Restoration/recreation of coastal wetlands, [[Prairie restoration|prairie plots]] and [[seagrass meadow]]s increases the uptake of carbon into organic matter.<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=45–54}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Nelson |first1=J. D. J. |last2=Schoenau |first2=J. J. |last3=Malhi |first3=S. S. |date=1 October 2008 |title=Soil organic carbon changes and distribution in cultivated and restored grassland soils in Saskatchewan |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-008-9175-1 |journal=Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems |language=en |volume=82 |issue=2 |pages=137–148 |doi=10.1007/s10705-008-9175-1 |bibcode=2008NCyAg..82..137N |s2cid=24021984 |issn=1573-0867|url-access=subscription }}</ref> When carbon is sequestered in soils and in organic matter such as trees, there is a risk of the carbon being re-released into the atmosphere later through changes in land use, fire, or other changes in ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|Ruseva|Hedrick|Marland|Tovar|2020}}</ref>
The use of bioenergy in conjunction with carbon capture and storage ([[Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage|BECCS]]) can result in net negative emissions as {{CO2}} is drawn from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=125}}; {{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}.</ref> It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal techniques will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide removal increase the risk of global warming rising beyond international goals.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}</ref>
== Adaptation ==
{{main|Climate change adaptation}}
Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects".<ref name="IPCC-2022">IPCC, 2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf Summary for Policymakers] [H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp. 3–33, {{doi|10.1017/9781009325844.001}}.</ref>{{rp|5}} Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=17}} More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively expensive.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=396–397}} The [[Adaptive capacity|capacity and potential for humans to adapt]] is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007|p=796}}.</ref> The first two decades of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most low- and middle-income countries with improved access to basic [[sanitation]] and electricity, but progress is slow. Many countries have implemented adaptation policies. However, there is a considerable gap between necessary and available finance.{{sfn|UNEP|2018|pp=xii–xiii}}
Adaptation to sea level rise consists of avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding, and building [[flood control]]s. If that fails, [[managed retreat]] may be needed.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Stephens |first1=Scott A. |last2=Bell |first2=Robert G. |last3=Lawrence |first3=Judy |year=2018 |title=Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |volume=13 |issue=10 |at=104004 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aadf96 |bibcode=2018ERL....13j4004S |issn=1748-9326 |doi-access=free}}</ref> There are economic barriers for tackling dangerous heat impact. Avoiding strenuous work or having [[air conditioning]] is not possible for everybody.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=402}} In agriculture, adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification, erosion control, and genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate.{{sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}} Insurance allows for risk-sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Surminski |first1=Swenja |last2=Bouwer |first2=Laurens M. |last3=Linnerooth-Bayer |first3=Joanne |year=2016 |title=How insurance can support climate resilience |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2979 |journal=[[Nature Climate Change]] |volume=6 |issue=4 |pages=333–334 |doi=10.1038/nclimate2979 |bibcode=2016NatCC...6..333S |issn=1758-6798}}</ref> Education, migration and [[early warning system]]s can reduce climate vulnerability.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=336–337}} Planting mangroves or encouraging other coastal vegetation can buffer storms.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Mangroves against the storm |url=https://social.shorthand.com/IUCN_forests/nCec1jyqvn/mangroves-against-the-storm.html |access-date=20 January 2023 |website=Shorthand |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=How marsh grass could help protect us from climate change |url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/how-marsh-grass-protects-shorelines/ |access-date=20 January 2023 |website=World Economic Forum |date=24 October 2021 |language=en}}</ref>
Ecosystems adapt to climate change, a process that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing connectivity between ecosystems, species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can also be [[Assisted migration|introduced to areas acquiring a favourable climate]]. Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural areas helps build resilience, making it easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that promote adaptation in ecosystems, also help humans adapt via [[ecosystem-based adaptation]]. For instance, restoration of [[Fire regime|natural fire regimes]] makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving rivers more space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate impacts.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Morecroft |first1=Michael D. |last2=Duffield |first2=Simon |last3=Harley |first3=Mike |last4=Pearce-Higgins |first4=James W. |last5=Stevens |first5=Nicola |last6=Watts |first6=Olly |last7=Whitaker |first7=Jeanette |display-authors=4 |year=2019 |title=Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |volume=366 |issue=6471 |page=eaaw9256 |doi=10.1126/science.aaw9256 |issn=0036-8075 |pmid=31831643 |s2cid=209339286 |doi-access=free}}</ref>
There are [[Synergy|synergies]] but also trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Berry |first1=Pam M. |last2=Brown |first2=Sally |last3=Chen |first3=Minpeng |last4=Kontogianni |first4=Areti |last5=Rowlands |first5=Olwen |last6=Simpson |first6=Gillian |last7=Skourtos |first7=Michalis |display-authors=4 |year=2015 |title=Cross-sectoral interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |journal=[[Climatic Change (journal)|Climate Change]] |volume=128 |issue=3 |pages=381–393 |bibcode=2015ClCh..128..381B |doi=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |issn=1573-1480 |s2cid=153904466|hdl=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> An example for synergy is increased food productivity, which has large benefits for both adaptation and mitigation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=54}}.</ref> An example of a trade-off is that increased use of air conditioning [[Air conditioning paradox|allows people to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand]]. Another trade-off example is that more compact [[Urban planning|urban development]] may reduce emissions from transport and construction, but may also increase the [[urban heat island]] effect, exposing people to heat-related health risks.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Sharifi |first=Ayyoob |year=2020 |title=Trade-offs and conflicts between urban climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: A literature review |journal=Journal of Cleaner Production |volume=276 |article-number=122813 |doi=10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122813 |bibcode=2020JCPro.27622813S |s2cid=225638176 |issn=0959-6526 |url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620328584|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
{| class="center toccolours"
|+ '''Examples of adaptation methods'''
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:FrontLines-EGAT 2011 Environment Photo Contest Top Entry (5842818280).jpg|[[Mangrove]] planting and other [[habitat conservation]] can reduce [[coastal flooding]].
File:Seawallventnor.jpg|[[Seawall]]s to protect against [[storm surge]] worsened by [[sea level rise]]
File:20080708 Chicago City Hall Green Roof Edit1.jpg|[[Green roof]]s to provide cooling in cities
File:2013.02-402-294a_Pearl_millet,breeding,selfing_ICRISAT,Patancheru(Hyderabad,Andhra_Pradesh),IN_wed20feb2013.jpg|[[Selective breeding]] for [[Xerophyte|drought-resistant crops]]
</gallery>
|}
== Policies and politics ==
{{See also|Politics of climate change|Climate change mitigation#Policies}}
[[File:Climate_Change_Performance_Index_(2023).svg|thumb|upright=1.35|The [[Climate Change Performance Index]] ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).
{| border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="width:100%;"
|-
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#31a354|High}}
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#fee391|Medium}}
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#fe9929|Low}}
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#d7301f|Very low}}
|valign="top"|
{{legend|Silver|No data}}
|}]]
Countries that are most [[Climate change vulnerability|vulnerable to climate change]] have typically been responsible for a small share of global emissions. This raises questions about justice and fairness.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Section 3|p=17}}</ref> Limiting global warming makes it much easier to achieve the UN's [[Sustainable Development Goals]], such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The connection is recognized in [[Sustainable Development Goal 13]] which is to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts".<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=447}}; United Nations (2017) Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 6 July 2017, [[:File:A RES 71 313 E.pdf|Work of the Statistical Commission pertaining to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development]] ([https://undocs.org/A/RES/71/313 A/RES/71/313])</ref> The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem protection have synergies with climate mitigation.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=477}}
The [[geopolitics]] of climate change is complex. It has often been framed as a [[free-rider problem]], in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a [[low-carbon economy]] themselves. Sometimes mitigation also has localized benefits though. For instance, the benefits of a [[coal phase out|coal phase-out]] to public health and local environments exceed the costs in almost all regions.<ref name="Rauner 2020">{{harvnb|Rauner|Bauer|Dirnaichner|Van Dingenen|2020}}</ref> Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win economically from switching to clean energy, causing net exporters to face [[stranded assets]]: fossil fuels they cannot sell.<ref>{{harvnb|Mercure|Pollitt|Viñuales|Edwards|2018}}</ref>
=== Policy options ===
{{Further|Climate policy}}
A wide range of [[Policy|policies]], regulations, and laws are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019, [[carbon pricing]] covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|World Bank, June|2019|p=12|loc=Box 1}}</ref> Carbon can be priced with [[carbon tax]]es and [[Carbon emission trading|emissions trading systems]].<ref>{{harvnb|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}}; {{harvnb|Hagmann|Ho|Loewenstein|2019}}.</ref> Direct global [[fossil fuel subsidies]] reached $319 billion in 2017, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1866}}</ref> Ending these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths.<ref>{{harvnb|UN Human Development Report|2020|p=10}}</ref> Money saved on fossil subsidies could be used to support the [[Renewable energy transition|transition to clean energy]] instead.<ref>{{harvnb|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019|p=iv}}</ref> More direct methods to reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry.<ref>{{harvnb|ICCT|2019|p=iv}}; {{harvnb|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}}</ref> Several countries [[Renewable portfolio standard|require utilities to increase the share of renewables in power production]].<ref>{{harvnb|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}}; {{harvnb|European Parliament, February|2020}}</ref>
==== Climate justice ====
Policy designed through the lens of [[climate justice]] tries to address human rights issues and social inequality. According to proponents of climate justice, the costs of climate adaptation should be paid by those most responsible for climate change, while the beneficiaries of payments should be those suffering impacts. One way this can be addressed in practice is to have wealthy nations pay poorer countries to adapt.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 16 October|2021}}</ref>
Oxfam found that in 2023 the wealthiest 10% of people were responsible for 50% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% were responsible for just 8%.<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Climate Equality: A planet for the 99% |last1=Khalfan|first1=Ashfaq|last2=Lewis|first2=Astrid Nilsson|last3=Aguilar|first3=Carlos|last4=Persson|first4=Jacqueline|last5=Lawson|first5=Max|last6=Dab|first6=Nafkote|last7=Jayoussi|first7=Safa|last8=Acharya|first8=Sunil|date=November 2023|website=Oxfam Digital Repository |publisher=Oxfam GB |doi=10.21201/2023.000001|url=https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621551/cr-climate-equality-201123-en-summ.pdf|access-date=18 December 2023}}</ref> Production of emissions is another way to look at responsibility: under that approach, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative [[climate reparations]] of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025–2050.<ref name=OneEarth_20230519>{{cite journal |last1=Grasso |first1=Marco |last2=Heede |first2=Richard |title=Time to pay the piper: Fossil fuel companies' reparations for climate damages |journal=One Earth |date=19 May 2023 |volume=6 |issue=5 |pages=459–463 |doi=10.1016/j.oneear.2023.04.012 |bibcode=2023OEart...6..459G |bibcode-access=free |s2cid=258809532 |s2cid-access=free |doi-access=free |hdl=10281/416137 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> To achieve a [[just transition]], people working in the fossil fuel sector would also need other jobs, and their communities would need investments.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}}.</ref>
=== International climate agreements ===
{{Further|United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}}
[[File:Total CO2 by Region.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Since 2000, rising {{CO2}} emissions in China and the rest of world have surpassed the output of the United States and Europe.<ref name="Friedlingstein 2019">{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}, Table 7.</ref>]]
[[File:Per Capita CO2 by Region.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Per person, the United States generates {{CO2}} at a far faster rate than other primary regions.<ref name="Friedlingstein 2019"/>]]
Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC).<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}}</ref> The goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC|1992|loc=Article 2}}.</ref> As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and [[Economic analysis of climate change|economic development]] can be sustained.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007|p=97}}.</ref> The UNFCCC does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for protocols that do. Global emissions have risen since the UNFCCC was signed.<ref name="EPA-2019">{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}.</ref> [[United Nations Climate Change conference|Its yearly conferences]] are the stage of global negotiations.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}}</ref>
The 1997 [[Kyoto Protocol]] extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}; {{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref> During the negotiations, the [[Group of 77|G77]] (representing [[Developing country|developing countries]]) pushed for a mandate requiring [[Developed country|developed countries]] to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}; {{harvnb|Grubb|2003}}.</ref> since developed countries contributed most to the [[Greenhouse gas emissions#Cumulative and historical emissions|accumulation of greenhouse gases]] in the atmosphere. Per-capita emissions were also still relatively low in developing countries and developing countries would need to emit more to meet their development needs.<ref>{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref>
The 2009 [[Copenhagen Accord]] has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.<ref>{{harvnb|Müller|2010}}; {{harvnb|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}}; {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}; {{harvnb|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}.</ref> Associated parties aimed to limit the global temperature rise to below 2 °C.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}.</ref> The accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the [[Green Climate Fund]].<ref>{{cite conference |date=7–18 December 2009 |title=Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change |url=http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php |___location=Copenhagen |id=un document= FCCC/CP/2009/L.7 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101018074452/http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php |archive-date=18 October 2010 |access-date=24 October 2010 |url-status=live}}</ref> {{As of|2020|}}, only 83.3 billion were delivered. Only in 2023 the target is expected to be achieved.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Bennett |first1=Paige |title=High-Income Nations Are on Track Now to Meet $100 Billion Climate Pledges, but They're Late |url=https://www.ecowatch.com/wealthy-countries-climate-change-reparations.html |access-date=10 May 2023 |agency=Ecowatch |date=2 May 2023}}</ref>
In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the [[Paris Agreement]], which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under {{val|1.5|u=°C}}.{{sfn|Paris Agreement|2015}} The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set of procedures was made binding. Countries have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate these goals every five years.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}}.</ref> The Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be financially supported.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=5}}.</ref> {{As of|March 2025}}, 194 states and the European Union have acceded to or [[ratification|ratified]] the agreement.<ref>{{cite web |title=Status of Treaties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |url=https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en |access-date=31 March 2025 |website=United Nations Treaty Collection}}; {{harvnb|Salon, 25 September|2019}}.</ref>
The 1987 [[Montreal Protocol]], an international agreement to phase out production of ozone-depleting gases, has had benefits for climate change mitigation.<ref>{{harvnb|Velders|Andersen|Daniel|Fahey|McFarland|2007}}; {{harvnb|Young|Harper|Huntingford|Paul|Morgenstern|Newman|Oman|Madronich|Garcia|2021}}</ref> Several ozone-depleting gases like [[chlorofluorocarbons]] are powerful greenhouse gases, so banning their production and usage may have avoided a temperature rise of 0.5 °C–1.0 °C,<ref>{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|pp=20, 31}}</ref> as well as additional warming by preventing damage to vegetation from [[ultraviolet]] radiation.<ref>{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|pp=20, 35}}; {{harvnb|Young|Harper|Huntingford|Paul|Morgenstern|Newman|Oman|Madronich|Garcia|2021}}</ref> It is estimated that the agreement has been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so.<ref>{{harvnb|Goyal|England|Sen Gupta|Jucker|2019}}; {{harvnb|Velders|Andersen|Daniel|Fahey|McFarland|2007}}</ref> The most recent amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the 2016 [[Kigali Amendment]], committed to reducing the emissions of [[hydrofluorocarbon]]s, which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases and are also potent greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 21 November|2017}}</ref> Should countries comply with the amendment, a warming of 0.3 °C–0.5 °C is estimated to be avoided.<ref>{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|p=15}}; {{harvnb|Velders|Daniel|Montzka|Vimont|Rigby|Krummel|Muhle|O'Doherty|Prinn,|Weiss|Young|2022}}</ref>
=== National responses ===
[[File:Annual-co2-emissions-by-region-2022.png|thumb|260px|Annual [[List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions|{{CO2}} emissions by region]]. This measures fossil fuel and industry emissions. [[Land use change]] is not included.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region |title=Annual {{CO2}} emissions by world region |website=ourworldindata.org |publisher=[[Our World in Data]] |format=chart|access-date=18 September 2024}}</ref>]]
In 2019, the [[Parliament of the United Kingdom|United Kingdom parliament]] became the first national government to declare a climate emergency.<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 1 May|2019}}; {{Harvnb|Vice, 2 May|2019}}.</ref> Other countries and [[jurisdiction]]s followed suit.<ref>{{harvnb|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}.</ref> That same year, the [[European Parliament]] declared a "climate and environmental emergency".<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}}</ref> The [[European Commission]] presented its [[European Green Deal]] with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Politico, 11 December|2019}}.</ref> In 2021, the European Commission released its "[[Fit for 55]]" legislation package, which contains guidelines for the [[automotive industry|car industry]]; all new cars on the European market must be [[Zero-emissions vehicle|zero-emission vehicles]] from 2035.<ref>{{cite news |title=European Green Deal: Commission proposes transformation of EU economy and society to meet climate ambitions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3541 |work=[[European Commission]] |date=14 July 2021}}</ref>
Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral by 2050, and China by 2060.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}}</ref> While India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a significant expansion of coal in the country.<ref>{{cite web |date=15 September 2021 |title=India |url=https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/ |access-date=3 October 2021 |website=Climate Action Tracker}}</ref> Vietnam is among very few coal-dependent, fast-developing countries that pledged to phase out unabated coal power by the 2040s or as soon as possible thereafter.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Do |first1=Thang Nam |last2=Burke |first2=Paul J. |title=Phasing out coal power in a developing country context: Insights from Vietnam |journal=Energy Policy |year=2023 |volume=176 |issue=May 2023 113512 |page=113512 |doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113512|bibcode=2023EnPol.17613512D |s2cid=257356936 |hdl=1885/286612 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>
As of 2021, based on information from 48 [[Nationally Determined Contributions|national climate plans]], which represent 40% of the parties to the Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.<ref>{{harvnb|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021|pp=4–5}}; {{cite news |author=UNFCCC Press Office |date=26 February 2021 |title=Greater Climate Ambition Urged as Initial NDC Synthesis Report Is Published |url=https://unfccc.int/news/greater-climate-ambition-urged-as-initial-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published |access-date=21 April 2021}}</ref>
== Society and culture ==
=== Denial and misinformation ===
{{Further|Climate change denial|Fossil fuels lobby}}
[[File:20200327 Climate change deniers cherry picking time periods.gif|thumb |upright=1.35 |right |Data has been [[cherry picking|cherry picked]] from short periods to falsely assert that global temperatures are not rising. Blue trendlines show short periods that mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). Blue rectangle with blue dots shows the so-called [[global warming hiatus]].{{sfn|Stover|2014}}]]
Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and [[misinformation]], which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly Canada and Australia. Climate change denial has originated from fossil fuel companies, industry groups, conservative think tanks, and [[contrarian]] scientists.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|pp=144, [https://books.google.com/books?id=RsYr_iQUs6QC&pg=PA155 155]}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> [[Tobacco industry playbook|Like the tobacco industry]], the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt about climate-change related scientific data and results.<ref>{{harvnb|Oreskes|Conway|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> People who hold unwarranted doubt about climate change are called climate change "skeptics", although "contrarians" or "deniers" are more appropriate terms.<ref>{{harvnb|O'Neill|Boykoff|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref>
There are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimize the negative impacts of climate change.<ref name="Björnberg 2017">{{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a [[manufactured controversy]]: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community to delay policy changes.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2015|p=308}}.</ref> Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|p=146}}.</ref> and questioning the motives of individual scientists.<ref name="Björnberg 2017"/> An [[echo chamber (media)|echo chamber]] of climate-denying [[blogs]] and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Harvey|Van den Berg|Ellers|Kampen|2018}}</ref>
=== Public awareness and opinion ===
{{Further|Climate communication|Media coverage of climate change|Public opinion on climate change}}
[[File:20220629 Public estimates of scientific consensus on climate change - horizontal bar chart.svg|thumb|upright=1.35| The public substantially underestimates the degree of scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change (2022 data).<ref name=KingsCollegeReport_20220629>{{cite web |title=Public perceptions on climate change |url=https://peritia-trust.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/4-Climate-change_EU.pdf |website=PERITIA Trust EU – The Policy Institute of King's College London |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220715062933/https://peritia-trust.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/4-Climate-change_EU.pdf |archive-date=15 July 2022 |page=4 |date=June 2022 |url-status=live}}</ref> Studies from 2019 to 2021<ref name=Powell_2019>{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=[[Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society]] |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |s2cid=213454806|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name=Lynas_2021/><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2=Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |date=20 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |bibcode=2021ERL....16j4030M |s2cid=239047650 |doi-access=free }}</ref> found scientific consensus to range from 98.7 to 100%.]]
Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s.<ref name="Weart">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}}</ref> Due to media coverage in the early 1990s, people often confused climate change with other environmental issues like ozone depletion.<ref name="Newell2006">{{harvnb|Newell|2006|p=80}}; {{harvnb|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}}</ref> [[Climate change in popular culture|In popular culture]], the [[climate fiction]] movie ''[[The Day After Tomorrow]]'' (2004) and the [[Al Gore]] documentary ''[[An Inconvenient Truth]]'' (2006) focused on climate change.<ref name="Weart" />
Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public concern for, and understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some countries, women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=10}}.</ref> College biology textbooks from the 2010s featured less content on climate change compared to those from the preceding decade, with decreasing emphasis on solutions.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last1=Preston |first1=Caroline |last2=Hechinger |date=1 October 2023 |title=In Some Textbooks, Climate Change Content Is Few and Far Between |url=https://undark.org/2023/01/10/in-some-textbooks-climate-change-content-is-few-and-far-between/ |website=undark.org/}}</ref> Partisan gaps also exist in many countries,<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2020|}}.</ref> and countries with high [[CO2 emissions|CO<sub>2</sub> emissions]] tend to be less concerned.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=15}}.</ref> Views on causes of climate change vary widely between countries.<ref>{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=7}}.</ref> Media coverage linked to protests has had impacts on public sentiment as well as on which aspects of climate change are focused upon.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Gulliver |first=Robyn |date=3 November 2021 |title=A Comparative Analysis of Australian Media Coverage of the 2019 Climate Protests |url=https://commonslibrary.org/a-comparative-analysis-of-australian-media-coverage-of-the-2019-climate-protests/ |access-date=5 March 2025 |website=The Commons Social Change Library |language=en-AU}}</ref> Higher levels of worry are associated with stronger public support for policies that address climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Leiserowitz|2013|p=943}}.</ref> Concern has increased over time,<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2020|}}; {{harvnb|UNDP|2024|pp=22–26}}</ref> and in 2021 a majority of citizens in 30 countries expressed a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency.<ref>{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=9}}; {{harvnb|UNDP|2021|p=15}}.</ref> A 2024 survey across 125 countries found that 89% of the global population demanded intensified political action, but systematically [[Pluralistic ignorance|underestimated other peoples']] willingness to act.<ref name=Damian>{{cite news |last1=Carrington |first1=Damian |title='Spiral of silence': climate action is very popular, so why don't people realise it? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/22/spiral-of-silence-climate-action-very-popular-why-dont-people-realise |access-date=22 April 2025 |agency=The Guardian |date=22 April 2025}}</ref><ref name=Peter>{{cite journal |last1=Andre |first1=Peter |last2=Boneva |first2=Teodora |last3=Chopra |first3=Felix |last4=Falk |first4=Armin |title=Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action |journal=Nature Climate Change |date=9 February 2024 |volume=14 |issue=3 |pages=253–259 |doi=10.1038/s41558-024-01925-3 |bibcode=2024NatCC..14..253A |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01925-3 |access-date=22 April 2025}}</ref>
==== Climate movement ====
{{Main|Climate movement|Climate change litigation}}
Climate protests demand that political leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form of public demonstrations, [[fossil fuel divestment]], lawsuits and other activities.<ref>{{harvnb|Gunningham|2018}}.</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hartley |first=Sophie |date=10 October 2023 |title=Climate Activism: Start Here |url=https://commonslibrary.org/climate-activism-start-here/ |access-date=5 March 2025 |website=The Commons Social Change Library |language=en-AU}}</ref> Prominent demonstrations include the [[School Strike for Climate]]. In this initiative, young people across the globe have been protesting since 2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish activist and then-teenager [[Greta Thunberg]].<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}; {{harvnb|Boulianne|Lalancette|Ilkiw|2020}}.</ref> Mass [[civil disobedience]] actions by groups like [[Extinction Rebellion]] have protested by disrupting roads and public transport.<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}.</ref>
[[Climate change litigation|Litigation]] is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen [[climate action]] from public institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change.<ref>{{cite news |last=Connolly |first=Kate |date=29 April 2021 |title='Historic' German ruling says climate goals not tough enough |url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/29/historic-german-ruling-says-climate-goals-not-tough-enough |access-date=1 May 2021 |work=[[The Guardian]]}}</ref> Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for [[loss and damage (climate change)|loss and damage]].<ref>{{harvnb|Setzer|Byrnes|2019}}.</ref> On 23 July 2025, the UN's [[International Court of Justice]] issued its advisory opinion, saying explicitly that states must act to stop climate change, and if they fail to accomplish that duty, other states can sue them. This obligation includes implementing their commitments in international agreements they are parties to, such as the 2015 Paris Climate Accord.<ref>{{cite web |date=23 July 2025 |title=Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change |url=https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/187/187-20250723-adv-01-00-en.pdf |website=ICJ-CIJ.org}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |date=23 July 2025 |title=Summary: Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change |url=https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/187/187-20250723-sum-01-00-en.pdf |website=ICJ-CIJ.org}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |date=23 July 2025 |title=Press Release: Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change |url=https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/187/187-20250723-pre-01-00-en.pdf |website=ICJ-CIJ.org}}</ref>
==
{{Broader|History of climate change science}}
=== Early discoveries ===
[[File:18560823 Eunice Newton Foote - greenhouse effect.png |thumb |upright=1.35 |[[Eunice Newton Foote]] showed carbon dioxide's [[greenhouse effect|heat-capturing effect]] in 1856, forseeing its implications for the planet.<ref name=Foote1856>{{cite journal|last=Foote |first=Eunice |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6xhFAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA382 |title=Circumstances affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays |date=November 1856 |journal=The American Journal of Science and Arts |volume=22 |pages=382–383 |access-date=31 January 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200930234235/https://books.google.com/books?id=6xhFAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA382%2F |archive-date=30 September 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref> (Carbon dioxide was called "carbonic acid gas".)]]
Scientists in the 19th century such as [[Alexander von Humboldt]] began to foresee the effects of climate change.<ref name="Nord 2020 p. 51">{{cite book |last=Nord |first=D. C. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=KmMGEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA51 |title=Nordic Perspectives on the Responsible Development of the Arctic: Pathways to Action |publisher=Springer International Publishing |year=2020 |isbn=978-3-030-52324-4 |series=Springer Polar Sciences |page=51 |access-date=11 March 2023}}</ref><ref name="Mukherjee Scanlon Aureli Langan 2020 p. 331">{{cite book |last1=Mukherjee |first1=A. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=17vbDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA331 |title=Global Groundwater: Source, Scarcity, Sustainability, Security, and Solutions |last2=Scanlon |first2=B. R. |last3=Aureli |first3=A. |last4=Langan |first4=S. |last5=Guo |first5=H. |last6=McKenzie |first6=A. A. |publisher=Elsevier Science |year=2020 |isbn=978-0-12-818173-7 |page=331 |access-date=11 March 2023}}</ref><ref name="von Humboldt Wulf 2018 p. 10">{{cite book | last1=von Humboldt | first1=A. | last2=Wulf | first2=A. | title=Selected Writings of Alexander von Humboldt: Edited and Introduced by Andrea Wulf | publisher=Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group | series=Everyman's Library Classics Series | year=2018 | isbn=978-1-101-90807-5 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=xal2DwAAQBAJ&pg=PR10 | access-date=11 March 2023 | page=10}}</ref><ref name="Erdkamp Manning Verboven 2021 p. 6">{{cite book |last1=Erdkamp |first1=Paul |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ZbdMEAAAQBAJ&pg=PR6 |title=Climate Change and Ancient Societies in Europe and the Near East: Diversity in Collapse and Resilience |last2=Manning |first2=Joseph G. |author-link2=Joseph Manning (historian) |last3=Verboven |first3=Koenraad |publisher=Springer International Publishing |year=2021 |isbn=978-3-030-81103-7 |series=Palgrave Studies in Ancient Economies |page=6 |access-date=11 March 2023}}</ref> In the 1820s, [[Joseph Fourier]] proposed the greenhouse effect to explain why Earth's temperature was higher than the Sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's atmosphere is transparent to sunlight, so sunlight reaches the surface where it is converted to heat. However, the atmosphere is not transparent to heat radiating from the surface, and captures some of that heat, which in turn warms the planet.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA10 10–14]}}</ref>
In 1856 [[Eunice Newton Foote]] demonstrated that the warming effect of the Sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and that the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide ({{co2}}). In "Circumstances Affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays" she concluded that "[a]n atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature".<ref name=":2">{{cite journal |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6xhFAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA382 |last=Foote |first=Eunice |title=Circumstances affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays |journal=The American Journal of Science and Arts |date=November 1856 |volume=22 |pages=382–383 |access-date=31 January 2016 |via=[[Google Books]]}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Huddleston|2019}}</ref>
[[File:19120814 Coal Consumption Affecting Climate - Rodney and Otamatea Times.jpg|thumb|upright=1.35 |This 1912 article succinctly describes the greenhouse effect, how burning coal creates carbon dioxide to cause global warming and climate change.<ref name="Otamatea Times">{{cite news |date=14 August 1912 |title=Coal Consumption Affecting Climate |page=7 |work=Rodney and Otamatea Times, Waitemata and Kaipara Gazette |___location=Warkworth, New Zealand |url=https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/ROTWKG19120814.2.56.5}} Text was earlier [[:File:191203 Furnaces of the world - Popular Mechanics - Global warming.jpg|published in ''Popular Mechanics'']], March 1912, p. 341.</ref>]]
Starting in 1859,<ref>{{harvnb|Tyndall|1861}}.</ref> [[John Tyndall]] established that nitrogen and oxygen—together totalling 99% of dry air—are transparent to radiated heat. However, water vapour and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat into the atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may have caused climatic changes in the past, including [[ice age]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA39 39–42]}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=[https://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article3.html Tyndall]}}</ref>
[[Svante Arrhenius]] noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but the {{co2}} concentration in air was influenced by long-term geological processes. Warming from increased {{co2}} levels would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a positive feedback loop. In 1896, he published the first [[climate model]] of its kind, projecting that halving {{co2}} levels could have produced a drop in temperature initiating an ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling {{co2}} to be around 5–6 °C.{{sfn|Lapenis|1998}} Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed that the greenhouse effect was saturated so that adding more {{co2}} would make no difference, and that the climate would be self-regulating.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect">{{harvnb|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=[https://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article4.html Arrhenius]}}</ref> Beginning in 1938, [[Guy Stewart Callendar]] published evidence that climate was warming and {{co2}} levels were rising,<ref>{{harvnb|Callendar|1938}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2007}}.</ref> but his calculations met the same objections.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" />
=== Development of a scientific consensus ===
{{see also|Scientific consensus on climate change}}
[[File:20211103 Academic studies of scientific consensus - global warming, climate change - vertical bar chart - en.svg|thumb|right |upright=1.35 |''Scientific consensus on causation:'' Academic studies of scientific agreement on human-caused global warming among climate experts (2010–2015) reflect that the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Cook |first1=John |last2=Oreskes |first2= Naomi |last3=Doran |first3=Peter T. |last4=Anderegg |first4=William R. L. |last5=Verheggen |first5=Bart |display-authors=4 |year=2016 |title=Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |volume=11 |issue=4 |page=048002 |bibcode= 2016ERL....11d8002C |doi= 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 |doi-access=free|hdl=1983/34949783-dac1-4ce7-ad95-5dc0798930a6 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%,<ref name="Powell2019" /> and a 2021 study concluded that consensus exceeded 99%.<ref name="Lynas2021" /> Another 2021 study found that 98.7% of climate experts indicated that the Earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity.<ref name="Myers2021">{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2= Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |journal= [[Environmental Research Letters]] |date=20 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |doi= 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |bibcode= 2021ERL....16j4030M |s2cid= 239047650 |doi-access=free}}</ref>]]
In the 1950s, [[Gilbert Plass]] created a detailed computer model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum. This model predicted that increasing {{co2}} levels would cause warming. Around the same time, [[Hans Suess]] found evidence that {{co2}} levels had been rising, and [[Roger Revelle]] showed that the oceans would not absorb the increase. The two scientists subsequently helped [[Charles David Keeling|Charles Keeling]] to begin a record of continued increase—the "[[Keeling Curve]]"<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" />—which was part of continued scientific investigation through the 1960s into possible human causation of global warming.<ref>{{harvnb|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}}</ref> Studies such as the [[National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|National Research Council]]'s 1979 [[Charney Report]] supported the accuracy of climate models that forecast significant warming.<ref name=Charney1979>{{Cite book |last1=Charney |first1=Jule |url=https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/12181/chapter/1 |title=Carbon Dioxide and Climate : A Scientific Assessment |last2=Arakawa |first2=Akio |last3=Baker |first3=D. James |last4=Bolin |first4=Bert |last5=Dickinson |first5=Robert E |last6=Goody |first6=Richard M |last7=Leith |first7=Cecil |last8=Stommel |first8=Henry |last9=Wunsch |first9=Carl |date=1979 |publisher=[[National Academies Press]] |doi=10.17226/12181 |isbn=978-0-309-11910-8 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240424115644/https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/12181/chapter/1 |archive-date=24 April 2024}}</ref> Human causation of observed global warming and dangers of unmitigated warming were publicly presented in [[James Hansen]]'s 1988 testimony before a [[United States Senate|US Senate]] committee.<ref name=nyt19880624>{{cite news |page=1 | title= Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate| first1= Philip|last1=Shabecoff | url= https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html| newspaper= [[New York Times]] |date= 24 June 1988 | access-date= 1 August 2012 | quote = ...Dr. James E. Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration told a Congressional committee that it was 99 percent certain that the warming trend was not a natural variation but was caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide and other artificial gases in the atmosphere.}}</ref><ref name="history.aip.org2"/> The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC), set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred [[Interdisciplinarity|interdisciplinary research]].<ref>{{harvnb|Weart|2013|p=3567}}.</ref> As part of the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change#Assessment reports|IPCC reports]], scientists assess the scientific discussion that takes place in [[Peer review|peer-reviewed]] [[Scientific journal|journal]] articles.<ref>{{harvnb|Royal Society|2005}}.</ref>
There is a nearly unanimous scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused by human activities.<ref name="Lynas2021"/> No scientific body of national or international standing [[Scientific consensus on climate change#Opposing|disagrees with this view]].<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Oreskes|2007|p=[https://books.google.com/books?id=PXJIqCkb7YIC&pg=PA68 68]}}; {{Harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}</ref> As of 2019, agreement in recent literature reached over 99%.<ref name="Powell2019">{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=[[Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society]] |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |access-date=15 November 2020 |s2cid=213454806|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="Lynas2021">{{Cite journal |last1=Lynas |first1=Mark |last2=Houlton |first2=Benjamin Z |last3=Perry |first3=Simon |year=2021 |title=Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |volume=16 |issue=11 |pages=114005 |bibcode=2021ERL....16k4005L |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 |issn=1748-9326 |s2cid=239032360|doi-access=free }}</ref> The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.<ref name="Lynas2021"/> Consensus has further developed that action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions.<ref>Joint statement of the {{harvtxt|G8+5 Academies|2009}}; {{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}.</ref>
===Recent developments===
[[Extreme event attribution]] (EEA), also known as attribution science, was developed in the early decades of the 21st century.<ref name=AMS_20161201>{{cite web |last1=Herring |first1=Stephanie C. |last2=Hoell |first2=Andrew |last3=Hoerling |first3=Martin P. |last4=Kossin |first4=James P. |last5=Schreck III |first5=Carl J. |last6=Stott |first6=Peter A. |title=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society / Introduction to Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective |url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/97/12/bams-d-16-0313.1.xml?tab_body=pdf |publisher=American Meteorological Society |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250628053021/https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/97/12/bams-d-16-0313.1.xml?tab_body=pdf |archive-date=28 June 2025 |date=1 December 2016 |url-status=live}}</ref> EEA uses [[climate model]]s to identify and quantify the role that human-caused climate change plays in the frequency, intensity, duration, and impacts of specific individual [[Extreme weather|extreme weather events]].<ref>{{cite book |title=Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change |date=2016 |publisher=The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) |___location=Washington, D.C. |doi=10.17226/21852 |isbn=978-0-309-38094-2 |url=https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852/attribution-of-extreme-weather-events-in-the-context-of-climate-change }}</ref><ref name=ClimateCentral_20241118>{{cite web |last1=McSweeney |first1=Robert |last2=Tandon |first2=Ayesha |title=Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world |url=https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-studies/index.html |publisher=Climate Central |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250610154758/https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-studies/index.html |archive-date=10 June 2025 |date=18 November 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> Results of attribution studies allow scientists and journalists to make statements such as, "this weather event was made at least ''n'' times more likely by human-caused climate change" or "this heatwave was made ''m'' degrees hotter than it would have been in a world without global warming" or "this event was effectively impossible without climate change".<ref name=WWA_2021>{{cite web |last1=Clarke |first1=Ben |last2=Otto |first2=Friederike |title=Reporting extreme weather and climate change A guide for journalists |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/ENG_WWA-Reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change.pdf |publisher=World Weather Attribution |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250601160944/https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/ENG_WWA-Reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change.pdf |archive-date=1 June 2025 |date=2021 |url-status=live}}</ref> Greater computing power in the 2000s and conceptual breakthroughs in the early to mid 2010s<ref name=ScientificAmerican_20170102>{{cite news |last1=Sneed |first1=Annie |title=Yes, Some Extreme Weather Can Be Blamed on Climate Change |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/yes-some-extreme-weather-can-be-blamed-on-climate-change/ |work=[[Scientific American]] |date=2 January 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170103135143/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/yes-some-extreme-weather-can-be-blamed-on-climate-change/ |archive-date=3 January 2017 }}</ref> enabled attribution science to detect the effects of climate change on some events with high confidence.<ref name=AMS_20161201/> Scientists use attribution methods and climate simulations that have already been [[peer review]]ed, allowing "rapid attribution studies" to be published within a "[[24-hour news cycle|news cycle]]" time frame after weather events.<ref name=ScientificAmerican_20170102/>
{{
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{{reflist|22em}}
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{{Free-content attribution
| title = The status of women in agrifood systems – Overview
| author = FAO
| publisher = FAO
| page numbers =
| source =
| documentURL = https://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en
| licence statement URL = https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_status_of_women_in_agrifood_systems_-_Overview.pdf
| license = CC BY-SA 3.0
}}
===
{{refbegin}}
'''Fourth Assessment Report'''
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* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year =2007
|title=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
|series=Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=S. |editor-last1=Solomon
|editor-first2=D. |editor-last2=Qin
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|editor-first8=H. L. |editor-last8=Miller
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
|isbn=978-0-521-88009-1
}}
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** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007}}
|chapter=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf
|year=2007
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|first1=H. |last1=Le Treut
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|first5=C. |last5=Mauritzen
|first6=A. |last6=Mokssit
|first7=T. |last7=Peterson
|first8=M. |last8=Prather
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
|pages=93–127
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}
|chapter=Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
|year=2007
|display-authors=4
|first1=D. A. |last1=Randall
|first2=R. A. |last2=Wood
|first3=S. |last3=Bony
|first4=R. |last4=Colman
|first5=T. |last5=Fichefet
|first6=J. |last6=Fyfe
|first7=V. |last7=Kattsov
|first8=A. |last8=Pitman
|first9=J. |last9=Shukla
|first10=J. |last10=Srinivasan
|first11=R. J. |last11=Stouffer
|first12=A. |last12=Sumi
|first13=K. E. |last13=Taylor
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
|pages=589–662
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007}}
|chapter=Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf
|year=2007
|display-authors=4
|first1=G. C. |last1=Hegerl
|first2=F. W. |last2=Zwiers
|first3=P. |last3=Braconnot |author-link3=Pascale Braconnot
|first4=N. P. |last4=Gillett
|first5=Y. |last5=Luo
|first6=J. A. |last6=Marengo Orsini
|first7=N. |last7=Nicholls
|first8=J. E. |last8=Penner
|first9=P. A. |last9=Stott
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
|pages=663–745
}}
<!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}} links to this citation. -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year =2007
|title=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
|series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=M. L. |editor-last1=Parry
|editor-first2=O. F. |editor-last2=Canziani
|editor-first3=J. P. |editor-last3=Palutikof
|editor-first4=P. J. |editor-last4=van der Linden
|editor-first5=C. E. |editor-last5=Hanson
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html
|isbn=978-0-521-88010-7
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007}}
|chapter=Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter19.pdf
|year=2007
|display-authors=4
|first1=S. H. |last1=Schneider
|first2=S. |last2=Semenov
|first3=A. |last3=Patwardhan
|first4=I. |last4=Burton
|first5=C. H. D. |last5=Magadza
|first6=M. |last6=Oppenheimer
|first7=A. B. |last7=Pittock
|first8=A. |last8=Rahman
|first9=J. B. |last9=Smith
|first10=A. |last10=Suarez
|first11=F. |last11=Yamin
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
|pages=779–810
}}
<!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}} links to this citation. -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year =2007
|title=Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change
|series=Contribution of Working Group III to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=B. |editor-last1=Metz
|editor-first2=O. R. |editor-last2=Davidson
|editor-first3=P. R. |editor-last3=Bosch
|editor-first4=R. |editor-last4=Dave
|editor-first5=L. A. |editor-last5=Meyer
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html
|isbn=978-0-521-88011-4
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007}}
|chapter=Chapter 1: Introduction
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter1.pdf
|year=2007
|display-authors=4
|first1=H.-H.|last1=Rogner
|first2=D. |last2=Zhou
|first3=R. |last3=Bradley
|first4=P. |last4=Crabbé
|first5=O. |last5=Edenhofer
|first6=B. |last6=Hare
|first7=L. |last7=Kuijpers
|first8=M. |last8=Yamaguchi
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
|pages=95–116
}}
<!-- =========AR5================== -->
'''Fifth Assessment report'''
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}<!-- ipcc:20200215 -->
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2013
|title=Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
|series=Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors=4
|editor1-first=T. F. |editor1-last=Stocker
|editor2-first=D. |editor2-last=Qin
|editor3-first=G.-K. |editor3-last=Plattner
|editor4-first=M. |editor4-last=Tignor
|editor5-first=S. K. |editor5-last=Allen
|editor6-first=J. |editor6-last=Boschung
|editor7-first=A. |editor7-last=Nauels
|editor8-first=Y. |editor8-last=Xia
|editor9-first=V. |editor9-last=Bex
|editor10-first=P. M. |editor10-last=Midgley
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|place=Cambridge, UK & New York
|isbn=978-1-107-05799-9 <!-- ISBN in printed source is incorrect. -->
|url=http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf <!-- Same file, new url per IPCC. -->
}}. [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – IPCC]
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013}}
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
|year=2013
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013}}
|chapter=Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/09/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
|year=2013
|display-authors=4
|first1=D. L. |last1=Hartmann
|first2=A. M. G. |last2=Klein Tank
|first3=M. |last3=Rusticucci
|first4=L. V. |last4=Alexander
|first5=S. |last5=Brönnimann
|first6=Y. |last6=Charabi
|first7=F. J. |last7=Dentener
|first8=E. J. |last8=Dlugokencky
|first9=D. R. |last9=Easterling
|first10=A. |last10=Kaplan
|first11=B. J. |last11=Soden
|first12=P. W. |last12=Thorne
|first13=M. |last13=Wild
|first14=P. M. |last14=Zhai
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages=159–254
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013}}
|chapter=Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter03_FINAL.pdf
|year=2013
|display-authors=4
|first1=M. |last1=Rhein
|first2=S. R. |last2=Rintoul
|first3=S. |last3=Aoki
|first4=E. |last4=Campos
|first5=D. |last5=Chambers
|first6=R. A. |last6=Feely
|first7=S. |last7=Gulev
|first8=G. C. |last8=Johnson
|first9=S. A. |last9=Josey
|first10=A. |last10=Kostianoy
|first11=C. |last11=Mauritzen
|first12=D. |last12=Roemmich
|first13=L. D. |last13=Talley
|first14=F. |last14=Wang
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages=255–315
}}
** {{cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013}}
|chapter=Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter05_FINAL.pdf
|year=2013
|display-authors=4
|first1=V. |last1=Masson-Delmotte
|first2=M. |last2=Schulz
|first3=A. |last3=Abe-Ouchi
|first4=J. |last4=Beer
|first5=A. |last5=Ganopolski
|first6=J. F. |last6=González Rouco
|first7=E. |last7=Jansen
|first8=K. |last8=Lambeck
|first9=J. |last9=Luterbacher
|first10=T. |last10=Naish
|first11=T. |last11=Osborn
|first12=B. |last12=Otto-Bliesner
|first13=T. |last13=Quinn
|first14=R. |last14=Ramesh
|first15=M. |last15=Rojas
|first16=X. |last16=Shao
|first17=A. |last17=Timmermann
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages=383–464
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013}}
|chapter=Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
|year=2013
|display-authors=4
|first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff
|first2=P. A. |last2=Stott
|first3=K. M. |last3=AchutaRao
|first4=M. R. |last4=Allen
|first5=N. |last5=Gillett
|first6=D. |last6=Gutzler
|first7=K. |last7=Hansingo
|first8=G. |last8=Hegerl
|first9=Y. |last9=Hu
|first10=S. |last10=Jain
|first11=I. I. |last11=Mokhov
|first12=J. |last12=Overland
|first13=J. |last13=Perlwitz
|first14=R. |last14=Sebbari
|first15=X. |last15=Zhang
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
|pages=867–952
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013}}
|chapter=Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf
|year=2013
|display-authors=4
|first1=M. |last1=Collins
|first2=R. |last2=Knutti
|first3=J. M. |last3=Arblaster
|first4=J.-L. |last4=Dufresne
|first5=T. |last5=Fichefet
|first6=P. |last6=Friedlingstein
|first7=X. |last7=Gao
|first8=W. J. |last8=Gutowski
|first9=T. |last9=Johns
|first10=G. |last10=Krinner
|first11=M. |last11=Shongwe
|first12=C. |last12=Tebaldi
|first13=A. J. |last13=Weaver
|first14=M. |last14=Wehner
|pages=1029–1136
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
}}
<!----------------AR5 Working Group II Report -->
{{anchor|{{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2|2014}}}} <!-- For the entire AR5 WG2 report -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2014
|title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects
|series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=C. B. |editor-last1=Field
|editor-first2=V. R. |editor-last2=Barros
|editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken
|editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach
|editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea
|editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir
|editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee
|editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi
|editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada
|editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova
|editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma
|editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel
|editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy
|editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken
|editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea
|editor-first16=L. L. |editor-last16=White
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|isbn=978-1-107-05807-1
|url=<!-- ** I haven't added AR5 urls yet as I have not determined which is best. -JJ -->
}}. Chapters 1–20, SPM, and Technical Summary.
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014}}
|chapter=Chapter 13: Livelihoods and Poverty
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap13_FINAL.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=L. |last1=Olsson
|first2=M. |last2=Opondo
|first3=P. |last3=Tschakert
|first4=A. |last4=Agrawal
|first5=S. H. |last5=Eriksen
|first6=S. |last6=Ma
|first7=L. N. |last7=Perch
|first8=S. A. |last8=Zakieldeen
|year=2014
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages=793–832
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014}}
|chapter=Chapter 18: Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap18_FINAL.pdf
|year=2014
|display-authors=4
|first1=W. |last1=Cramer
|first2=G. W. |last2=Yohe
|first3=M. |last3=Auffhammer
|first4=C. |last4=Huggel
|first5=U. |last5=Molau
|first6=M. A. F. |last6=da Silva Dias
|first7=A. |last7=Solow
|first8=D. A. |last8=Stone
|first9=L. |last9=Tibig
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages=979–1037
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014}}
|chapter=Chapter 19: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap19_FINAL.pdf
|year=2014
|display-authors=4
|first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer
|first2=M. |last2=Campos
|first3=R. |last3=Warren
|first4=J. |last4=Birkmann
|first5=G. |last5=Luber
|first6=B. |last6=O'Neill
|first7=K. |last7=Takahashi
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
|pages=1039–1099
}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2014
|title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects
|series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=V. R. |editor-last1=Barros
|editor-first2=C. B. |editor-last2=Field
|editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken
|editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach
|editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea
|editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir
|editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee
|editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi
|editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada
|editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova
|editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma
|editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel
|editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy
|editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken
|editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea
|editor-first16=L.L |editor-last16=White
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|place=Cambridge, UK & New York
|isbn=978-1-107-05816-3
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartB_FINAL.pdf
}}. Chapters 21–30, Annexes, and Index.
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014}}
|chapter=Chapter 28: Polar Regions
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap28_FINAL.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=J. N. |last1=Larsen
|first2=O. A. |last2=Anisimov
|first3=A. |last3=Constable
|first4=A. B. |last4=Hollowed
|first5=N. |last5=Maynard
|first6=P. |last6=Prestrud
|first7=T. D. |last7=Prowse
|first8=J. M. R.|last8=Stone
|year=2014
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}
|pages=1567–1612
}}
<!-- ------------------------------ -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2014
|title=Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
|series=Contribution of Working Group III to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=O. |editor-last1=Edenhofer
|editor-first2=R. |editor-last2=Pichs-Madruga
|editor-first3=Y. |editor-last3=Sokona
|editor-first4=E. |editor-last4=Farahani
|editor-first5=S. |editor-last5=Kadner
|editor-first6=K. |editor-last6=Seyboth
|editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Adler
|editor-first8=I. |editor-last8=Baum
|editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Brunner
|editor-first10=P. |editor-last10=Eickemeier
|editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Kriemann
|editor-first12=J. |editor-last12=Savolainen
|editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Schlömer
|editor-first14=C. |editor-last14=von Stechow
|editor-first15=T. |editor-last15=Zwickel
|editor-first16=J. C. |editor-last16=Minx
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|place=Cambridge, UK & New York, NY
|isbn= 978-1-107-05821-7
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014}}
|chapter=Chapter 9: Buildings
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter9.pdf
|year=2014
|display-authors=4
|first1=O. |last1=Lucon
|first2=D. |last2=Ürge-Vorsatz
|first3=A. |last3=Ahmed
|first4=H. |last4=Akbari
|first5=P. |last5=Bertoldi
|first6=L. |last6=Cabeza
|first7=N. |last7=Eyre
|first8=A. |last8=Gadgil
|first9=L. D. |last9=Harvey
|first10=Y. |last10=Jiang
|first11=E. |last11=Liphoto
|first12=S. |last12=Mirasgedis
|first13=S. |last13=Murakami
|first14=J. |last14=Parikh
|first15=C. |last15=Pyke
|first16=M. |last16=Vilariño
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Annex III|2014}}
|chapter=Annex III: Technology-specific Cost and Performance Parameters
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf
|year=2014
|display-authors=4
|first1=O. |last1=Edenhofer
|first2=R. |last2=Pichs-Madruga
|first3=Y. |last3=Sokona
|first4=E. |last4=Farahani
|first5=S. |last5=Kadner
|first6=K. |last6=Seyboth
|first7=A. |last7=Adler
|first8=I. |last8=Baum
|first9=S. |last9=Brunner
|first10=P. |last10=Eickemeier
|first11=B. |last11=Kriemann
|first12=J. |last12=Savolainen
|first13=S. |last13=Schlömer
|first14=C. |last14=von Stechow
|first15=T. |last15=Zwickel
|first16=J.C. |last16=Minx
|publisher=Cambridge University Press
|___location=Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
}}
* {{cite book
|author=IPCC AR5 SYR |author-link=IPCC
|year=2014
|title=Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
|series=Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor1=The Core Writing Team
|editor-first2=R. K. |editor-last2=Pachauri
|editor-first3=L. A. |editor-last3=Meyer
|publisher=IPCC
|place=Geneva, Switzerland
|isbn=<!-- no isbn -->
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014}}
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
|year=2014
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014}}
|chapter=Annex II: Glossary
|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_Annexes.pdf
|year=2014
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
}}
<!-- =========SR15================== -->
'''Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 °C'''
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2018
|title=Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=V. |editor-last1=Masson-Delmotte
|editor-first2=P. |editor-last2=Zhai
|editor-first3=H.-O. |editor-last3=Pörtner
|editor-first4=D. |editor-last4=Roberts
|editor-first5=J. |editor-last5=Skea
|editor-first6=P. R. |editor-last6=Shukla
|editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Pirani
|editor-first8=W. |editor-last8=Moufouma-Okia
|editor-first9=C. |editor-last9=Péan
|editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=Pidcock
|editor-first11=S. |editor-last11=Connors
|editor-first12=J. B. R. |editor-last12=Matthews
|editor-first13=Y. |editor-last13=Chen
|editor-first14=X. |editor-last14=Zhou
|editor-first15=M. I. |editor-last15=Gomis
|editor-first16=E. |editor-last16=Lonnoy
|editor-first17=T. |editor-last17=Maycock
|editor-first18=M. |editor-last18=Tignor
|editor-first19=T. |editor-last19=Waterfeld
|publisher=[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]
|isbn=<!-- not issued? -->
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf
}} Global Warming of 1.5 °C –.
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2018
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_HR.pdf
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages=3–24
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year=2018
|chapter=Chapter 1: Framing and Context
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=M. R. |last1=Allen
|first2=O. P. |last2=Dube
|first3=W. |last3=Solecki
|first4=F. |last4=Aragón-Durand
|first5=W. |last5=Cramer
|first6=S. |last6=Humphreys
|first7=M. |last7=Kainuma
|first8=J. |last8=Kala
|first9=N. |last9=Mahowald
|first10=Y. |last10=Mulugetta
|first11=R. |last11=Perez
|first12=M. |last12=Wairiu
|first13=K. |last13=Zickfeld
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages=49–91
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year=2018
|chapter=Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5 °C in the Context of Sustainable Development
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=J. |last1=Rogelj |author1-link=Joeri Rogelj
|first2=D. |last2=Shindell
|first3=K. |last3=Jiang
|first4=S. |last4=Fifta
|first5=P. |last5=Forster
|first6=V. |last6=Ginzburg
|first7=C. |last7=Handa
|first8=H. |last8=Kheshgi
|first9=S. |last9=Kobayashi
|first10=E. |last10=Kriegler
|first11=L. |last11=Mundaca
|first12=R. |last12=Séférian
|first13=M. V. |last13=Vilariño
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages=93–174
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year=2018
|chapter=Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5 °C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=O. |last1=Hoegh-Guldberg
|first2=D. |last2=Jacob
|first3=M. |last3=Taylor
|first4=M. |last4=Bindi
|first5=S. |last5=Brown
|first6=I. |last6=Camilloni
|first7=A. |last7=Diedhiou
|first8=R. |last8=Djalante
|first9=K. L. |last9=Ebi
|first10=F. |last10=Engelbrecht
|first11=J. |last11=Guiot
|first12=Y. |last12=Hijioka
|first13=S. |last13=Mehrotra
|first14=A. |last14=Payne
|first15=S. I.|last15=Seneviratne
|first16=A. |last16=Thomas
|first17=R. |last17=Warren
|first18=G. |last18=Zhou
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages=175–311
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year=2018
|chapter=Chapter 4: Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter4_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=H. |last1=de Coninck
|first2=A. |last2=Revi
|first3=M. |last3=Babiker
|first4=P. |last4=Bertoldi
|first5=M. |last5=Buckeridge
|first6=A. |last6=Cartwright
|first7=W. |last7=Dong
|first8=J. |last8=Ford
|first9=S. |last9=Fuss
|first10=J.-C. |last10=Hourcade
|first11=D. |last11=Ley
|first12=R. |last12=Mechler
|first13=P. |last13=Newman
|first14=A. |last14=Revokatova
|first15=S. |last15=Schultz
|first16=L. |last16=Steg
|first17=T. |last17=Sugiyama
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages=313–443
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
|year=2018
|chapter=Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter5_High_Res.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=J. |last1=Roy
|first2=P. |last2=Tschakert
|first3=H. |last3=Waisman
|first4=S. |last4=Abdul Halim
|first5=P. |last5=Antwi-Agyei
|first6=P. |last6=Dasgupta
|first7=B. |last7=Hayward
|first8=M. |last8=Kanninen
|first9=D. |last9=Liverman
|first10=C. |last10=Okereke
|first11=P. F. |last11=Pinho
|first12=K. |last12=Riahi
|first13=A. G. |last13=Suarez Rodriguez
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
|pages=445–538
}}
<!-- =========SRCCL ============================ -->
'''Special Report: Climate change and Land'''
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=P. R. |editor-last1=Shukla
|editor-first2=J. |editor-last2=Skea
|editor-first3=E. |editor-last3=Calvo Buendia
|editor-first4=V. |editor-last4=Masson-Delmotte
|editor-first5=H.-O. |editor-last5=Pörtner
|editor-first6=D. |editor-last6=C. Roberts
|editor-first7=P. |editor-last7=Zhai
|editor-first8=R. |editor-last8=Slade
|editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Connors
|editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=van Diemen
|editor-first11=M. |editor-last11=Ferrat
|editor-first12=E. |editor-last12=Haughey
|editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Luz
|editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=Neogi
|editor-first15=M. |editor-last15=Pathak
|editor-first16=J. |editor-last16=Petzold
|editor-first17=J. |editor-last17=Portugal Pereira
|editor-first18=P. |editor-last18=Vyas
|editor-first19=E. |editor-last19=Huntley
|editor-first20=K. |editor-last20=Kissick
|editor-first21=M. |editor-last21=Belkacemi
|editor-first22=J. |editor-last22=Malley
|year=2019
|title=IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf
|publisher=In press
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/02_Summary-for-Policymakers_SPM.pdf
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2019
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
|pages=3–34
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|chapter=Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/05_Chapter-2.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=G. |last1=Jia
|first2=E. |last2=Shevliakova
|first3=P. E. |last3=Artaxo<!-- 'Artaxo-Netto'? -->
|first4=N. |last4=De Noblet-Ducoudré
|first5=R. |last5=Houghton
|first6=J. |last6=House
|first7=K. |last7=Kitajima
|first8=C. |last8=Lennard
|first9=A. |last9=Popp
|first10=A. |last10=Sirin
|first11=R. |last11=Sukumar
|first12=L. |last12=Verchot
|year=2019
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
|pages=131–247
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|chapter=Chapter 5: Food Security
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/08_Chapter-5.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=C. |last1=Mbow
|first2=C. |last2=Rosenzweig
|first3=L. G. |last3=Barioni
|first4=T. |last4=Benton
|first5=M. |last5=Herrero
|first6=M. V. |last6=Krishnapillai
|first7=E. |last7=Liwenga
|first8=P. |last8=Pradhan
|first9=M. G. |last9=Rivera-Ferre
|first10=T. |last10=Sapkota
|first11=F. N. |last11=Tubiello
|first12=Y. |last12=Xu
|year=2019
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
|pages=437–550
}}
<!-- =========SROCC ============================ -->
'''Special Report: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate'''
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2019
|display-editors=4
|editor-first1=H.-O. |editor-last1=Pörtner
|editor-first2=D. C. |editor-last2=Roberts
|editor-first3=V. |editor-last3=Masson-Delmotte
|editor-first4=P. |editor-last4=Zhai
|editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Tignor
|editor-first6=E. |editor-last6=Poloczanska
|editor-first7=K. |editor-last7=Mintenbeck
|editor-first8=A. |editor-last8=Alegría
|editor-first9=M. |editor-last9=Nicolai
|editor-first10=A. |editor-last10=Okem
|editor-first11=J. |editor-last11=Petzold
|editor-first12=B. |editor-last12=Rama
|editor-first13=N. |editor-last13=Weyer
|title=IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
|publisher=In press
|isbn=<!-- Not yet assigned -->
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/SROCC_FullReport_FINAL.pdf
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/03_SROCC_SPM_FINAL.pdf
|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
|year=2019
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
|pages=3–35
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
|chapter=Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer
|first2=B. |last2=Glavovic
|first3=J. |last3=Hinkel
|first4=R. |last4=van de Wal
|first5=A. K. |last5=Magnan
|first6=A. |last6=Abd-Elgawad
|first7=R. |last7=Cai
|first8=M. |last8=Cifuentes-Jara
|first9=R. M. |last9=Deconto
|first10=T. |last10=Ghosh
|first11=J. |last11=Hay
|first12=F. |last12=Isla
|first13=B. |last13=Marzeion
|first14=B. |last14=Meyssignac
|first15=Z. |last15=Sebesvari
|year=2019
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
|pages=321–445
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
|chapter=Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/09_SROCC_Ch05_FINAL.pdf
|display-authors=4
|first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff
|first2=W. W. L. |last2=Cheung
|first3=J. G. |last3=Kairo
|first4=J. |last4=Arístegui
|first5=V. A. |last5=Guinder
|first6=R. |last6=Hallberg
|first7=N. J. M. |last7=Hilmi
|first8=N. |last8=Jiao
|first9=Md S. |last9=Karim
|first10=L. |last10=Levin
|first11=S. |last11=O'Donoghue
|first12=S. R. |last12=Purca Cuicapusa
|first13=B. |last13=Rinkevich
|first14=T. |last14=Suga
|first15=A. |last15=Tagliabue
|first16=P. |last16=Williamson
|year=2019
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
|pages=447–587
}}
'''Sixth Assessment Report'''
* {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|year= 2021
|title= Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
|series= Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report|Sixth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|display-editors= 4
|editor1-first=V. |editor1-last=Masson-Delmotte
|editor2-first=P. |editor2-last=Zhai
|editor3-first=A. |editor3-last=Pirani
|editor4-first=S. L. |editor4-last=Connors
|editor5-first=C. |editor5-last=Péan
|editor6-first=S. |editor6-last=Berger
|editor7-first=N. |editor7-last=Caud
|editor8-first=Y. |editor8-last=Chen
|editor9-first=L. |editor9-last=Goldfarb
|editor10-first=M. I. |editor10-last=Gomis
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]] (In Press)
|place=Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport_small.pdf
}}
** {{Cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021}}
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf
|author=IPCC |author-link= IPCC
|year=2021
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
}}
** {{Cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021}}
|chapter=Technical Summary
|last1=Arias |first1=Paola A.
|last2=Bellouin |first2=Nicolas
|last3=Coppola |first3=Erika
|last4=Jones |first4=Richard G.
|last5=Krinner |first5=Gerhard
|display-authors=4
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf
|year=2021
|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
}}
** {{Cite book
|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021}}
|chapter=Chapter 2: Changing state of the climate system
|last1 = Gulev| first1 = Sergey K.| last2 = Thorne| first2 = Peter W.| last3 = Ahn| first3 = Jinho| last4 = Dentener| first4 = Frank J.| last5 = Domingues| first5 = Catia M.| last6 = Gerland| first6 = Sebastian| last7 = Gong| first7 = Daoyi| last8 = Kaufman| first8 = Darrell S.| last9 = Nnamchi| first9 = Hyacinth C.| last10 = Quaas| first10 = Johannes| last11 = Rivera| first11 = Juan Antonio| last12 = Sathyendranath| first12 = Shubha| last13 = Smith| first13 = Sharon L.| last14 = Trewin| first14 = Blair| last15 = von Shuckmann| first15 = Karina| last16 = Vose| first16 = Russell S.
|title = Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_02.pdf
|display-authors=4
|year=2021
}}
** {{Cite book
|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021}}
|chapter=Chapter 4: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information
|last1 = Lee | first1 = June-Yi | last2 = Marotzke | first2 = Jochem | last3 = Bala | first3 = Govindasamy | last4 = Cao | first4 = Long | last5 = Corti | first5 = Susanna | last6 = Dunne | first6 = John P. | last7 = Engelbrecht | first7 = Francois | last8 = Fischer | first8 = Erich M. | last9 = Fyfe | first9 = John C. | last10 = Jones | first10 = Christopher D. | last11 = Maycock | first11 = Amanda C. | last12 = Mutemi | first12 = Joseph | last13 = Ndiaye | first13 = Ousmane | last14 = Panickal | first14 = Swapna | last15 = Zhou | first15 = Tianjun
|title = Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|chapter-url = https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-4/
|display-authors=4
|year=2021
}}
** {{Cite book
|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch5|2021}}
|chapter=Chapter 5: Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks
|last1 = Canadell | first1 = Josep G. | last2 = Monteiro | first2 = Pedro M.S. | last3 = Costa | first3 = Marcos H. | last4 = Cotrim da Cunha | first4 = Leticia | last5 = Cox | first5 = Peter | last6 = Eliseev | first6 = Alexey V. | last7 = Ghattas | first7 = Julia | last8 = Ishii | first8 = Masao | last9 = Joos | first9 = Fortunat | last10 = Lenton | first10 = Timothy M. | last11 = Patra | first11 = Prabir K. | last12 = Scholes | first12 = Mary | last13 = Shrestha | first13 = Rajan K. | last14 = Tjiputra | first14 = Jerry | last15 = Zaehle | first15 = Sönke
|title = Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-5/
|display-authors=4
|year=2021
}}
** {{Cite book
|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11|2021}}
|chapter=Chapter 11: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate
|last1=Seneviratne |first1=Sonia I.
|last2=Zhang |first2=Xuebin
|last3=Adnan |first3=M.
|last4=Badi |first4=W.
|last5=Dereczynski |first5=Claudine
|last6=Di Luca |first6=Alejandro
|last7=Ghosh |first7=S.
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.pdf
|display-authors=4
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
|year=2021
}}
* {{cite book
|author=IPCC
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}
|editor-last1=Pörtner |editor-first1=H.-O.
|editor-last2=Roberts |editor-first2=D.C.
|editor-last3=Tignor |editor-first3=M.
|editor-last4=Poloczanska |editor-first4=E.S.
|editor-last5=Mintenbeck |editor-first5=K.
|editor-last6=Alegría |editor-first6=A.
|editor-last7=Craig |editor-first7=M.
|editor-last8=Langsdorf |editor-first8=S.
|editor-last9=Löschke |editor-first9=S.
|editor-last10=Möller |editor-first10=V.
|editor-last11=Okem |editor-first11=A.
|editor-last12=Rama |editor-first12=B.
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
|title=Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|year=2022
|doi=10.1017/9781009325844|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4
}}
** {{Cite book
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022}}
|author=IPCC
|chapter=Summary for Policymakers
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}
|year=2022
|pages=3–33
|doi=10.1017/9781009325844.001
|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4
}}
** {{Cite book
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 Technical Summary|2022}}
|author=IPCC
|chapter=Technical Summary
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf
|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}
|year=2022
|pages=37–118
|doi=10.1017/9781009325844.002
|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4
}}
** {{Cite book
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch5|2022}}
|chapter=Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter05.pdf
|last1=Bezner Kerr |first1=R.
|last2=Hasegawa |first2=T.
|last3=Lasco |first3=R.
|last4=Bhatt |first4=I.
|last5=Deryng |first5=D.
|last6=Farrell |first6=A.
|last7=Gurney-Smith |first7=H.
|last8=Ju |first8=H.
|last9=Lluch-Cota |first9=S.
|last10=Meza |first10=F.
|last11=Nelson |first11=G.
|last12=Neufeldt |first12=H.
|last13=Thornton |first13=P.
|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}
|year=2022
|pages=713–906
|doi=10.1017/9781009325844.007
|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4
}}
** {{Cite book
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch6|2022}}
|chapter=Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter06.pdf
|last1=Dodman |first1=D.
|last2=Hayward |first2=B.
|last3=Pelling |first3=M.
|last4=Castan Broto |first4=V.
|last5=Chow |first5=W.
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* {{cite book
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|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/
|title=Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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** {{Cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022}}
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** {{Cite book
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** {{Cite book
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch3|2022}}
|chapter=Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-term Goals
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** {{Cite book
|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch14|2022}}
|chapter=Chapter 14: International Cooperation
|last1 = Patt | first1 = Anthony | last2 = Rajamani | first2 = Lavanya | last3 = Bhandari | first3 = Preety | last4 = Caparrós | first4 = Alejandro | last5 = Djemouai | first5 = Kamal | last6 = Ivanova Boncheva | first6 = Antonina | last7 = Kubota | first7 = Izumi | last8 = Peel | first8 = Jacqueline | last9 = Sari | first9 = Agus Pratama | last10 = Sprinz | first10 = Detlef F. | last11 = Wettestad | first11 = Jørgen | last12 = Badiola | first12 = Esther | last13 = Carruthers | first13 = Pasha
|title = Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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* {{cite book
|author=IPCC |title=Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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** {{Cite book
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 SYR SPM|2023}}
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}}
{{refend}}
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* {{cite journal |last1=Smith |first1=Joel B. |last2=Schneider |first2=Stephen H. |last3=Oppenheimer |first3=Michael |last4=Yohe |first4=Gary W. |last5=Hare |first5=William |last6=Mastrandrea |first6=Michael D. |last7=Patwardhan |first7=Anand |last8=Burton |first8=Ian |last9=Corfee-Morlot |first9=Jan |display-authors=4 |year=2009 |title=Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'reasons for concern' |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |volume=106 |issue=11 |pages=4133–4137 |bibcode=2009PNAS..106.4133S |doi=10.1073/pnas.0812355106 |pmc=2648893 |pmid=19251662 |first10=Chris H. D. |last10=Magadza |first11=Hans-Martin |last11=Füssel |first12=A. Barrie |last12=Pittock |first13=Atiq |last13=Rahman |first14=Avelino |last14=Suarez |first15=Jean-Pascal |last15=van Ypersele |doi-access=free}}
* {{Cite journal |last1=Smith |first1=N. |last2=Leiserowitz |first2=A. |date=2013 |title=The role of emotion in global warming policy support and opposition. |journal=Risk Analysis |volume=34 |issue=5 |pages=937–948 |doi=10.1111/risa.12140 |pmid=24219420 |url=https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC4298023&blobtype=pdf |pmc=4298023}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Stroeve |first1=J. |last2=Holland |first2=Marika M. |last3=Meier |first3=Walt |last4=Scambos |first4=Ted |last5=Serreze |first5=Mark |display-authors=4 |title=Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast |year=2007 |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=34 |issue=9 |page=L09501 |doi=10.1029/2007GL029703 |bibcode=2007GeoRL..34.9501S |doi-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |title=Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth's climate sensitivity |last1=Storelvmo |first1=T. |last2=Phillips |first2=P. C. B. |last3=Lohmann |first3=U. |last4=Leirvik |first4=T. |last5=Wild |first5=M. |date=2016 |journal=Nature Geoscience |volume=9 |issue=4 |pages=286–289 |doi=10.1038/ngeo2670 |issn=1752-0908 |bibcode=2016NatGe...9..286S |url=https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/410581/1/ClimSens_012116_nofigs2.pdf}}
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* {{cite journal |last1=Turetsky |first1=Merritt R. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Jones |first3=Miriam C. |last4=Anthony |first4=Katey Walter |last5=Koven |first5=Charles |last6=Kuhry |first6=Peter |last7=Lawrence |first7=David M. |last8=Gibson |first8=Carolyn |last9=Sannel |first9=A. Britta K. |display-authors=4 |date=2019 |title=Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release |journal=[[Nature (journal)|Nature]] |volume=569 |issue=7754 |pages=32–34 |bibcode=2019Natur.569...32T |doi=10.1038/d41586-019-01313-4 |pmid=31040419 |doi-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Turner |first1=Monica G. |last2=Calder |first2=W. John |last3=Cumming |first3=Graeme S. |last4=Hughes |first4=Terry P. |last5=Jentsch |first5=Anke |last6=LaDeau |first6=Shannon L. |last7=Lenton |first7=Timothy M. |last8=Shuman |first8=Bryan N. |last9=Turetsky |first9=Merritt R. |last10=Ratajczak |first10=Zak |last11=Williams |first11=John W. |display-authors=4 |date=2020 |title=Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities |journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B |volume=375 |issue=1794 |doi=10.1098/rstb.2019.0105 |pmc=7017767 |pmid=31983326}}
* {{cite journal |last=Twomey |first=S. |date=1977 |title=The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds |journal=J. Atmos. Sci. |volume=34 |issue=7 |pages=1149–1152 |bibcode=1977JAtS...34.1149T |doi=10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2 |issn=1520-0469 |doi-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |last=Tyndall |first=John |author-link=John Tyndall |title=On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connection of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction |journal=Philosophical Magazine |series=4 |date=1861 |volume=22 |pages=169–194, 273–285 |url-status=live |url=http://rstl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/151/1.full.pdf+html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160326122934/http://rstl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/151/1.full.pdf+html |archive-date=26 March 2016}}
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* {{cite journal |last1=Velders |first1=G. J. M. |last2=Andersen |first2=S. O. |author-link2=Stephen O. Andersen |last3=Daniel |first3=J. S. |last4=Fahey |first4=D. W. |last5=McFarland |first5=M. |display-authors=2 |date=2007 |title=The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |volume=104 |issue=12 |pages=4814–4819 |doi=10.1073/pnas.0610328104 |doi-access=free |pmid=17360370 |pmc=1817831 |bibcode=2007PNAS..104.4814V}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Velders |first1=G. J. M. |last2=Daniel |first2=J. S. |last3=Montzka |first3=S. A. |last4=Vimont |first4=I. |last5=Rigby |first5=M. |last6=Krummel |first6=Paul B. |last7=Muhle |first7=J. |last8=O'Doherty |first8=S. |last9=Prinn |first9=R. G. |last10=Weiss |first10=R. F. |last11=Young |first11=D. |display-authors=1 |date=2022 |title=Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies |journal=Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |volume=22 |issue=9 |pages=6087–6101 |doi=10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022 |url=https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/6087/2022/acp-22-6087-2022.html |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ACP....22.6087V |hdl=1721.1/148197 |hdl-access=free}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|USGCRP Chapter 1|2017}} |year=2017 |chapter=Chapter 1: Our Globally Changing Climate |title=In {{harvnb|USGCRP2017}} |chapter-url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR_Ch1_Our_Globally_Changing_Climate.pdf |first1=D. J. |last1=Wuebbles |first2=D. R. |last2=Easterling |first3=K. |last3=Hayhoe |first4=T. |last4=Knutson |first5=R. E. |last5=Kopp |first6=J. P. |last6=Kossin |first7=K. E. |last7=Kunkel |last9=A. N. |last8=LeGran-de |first10=C. |last10=Mears |first11=W. V. |last11=Sweet |first12=P. C. |last12=Taylor |first13=R. S. |last13=Vose |first14=M. F. |last14=Wehne |display-authors=4}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014}} |chapter=Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement |last1=Walsh |first1=John |last2=Wuebbles |first2=Donald |last3=Hayhoe |first3=Katherine |last4=Kossin |first4=Kossin |last5=Kunkel |first5=Kenneth |last6=Stephens |first6=Graeme |display-authors=4 |chapter-url=http://s3.amazonaws.com/nca2014/low/NCA3_Full_Report_Appendix_3_Climate_Science_Supplement_LowRes.pdf?download=1 |year=2014 |series=US National Climate Assessment |title=Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Wang |first1=Bin |last2=Shugart |first2=Herman H. |last3=Lerdau |first3=Manuel T. |date=2017 |title=Sensitivity of global greenhouse gas budgets to tropospheric ozone pollution mediated by the biosphere |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |volume=12 |issue=8 |page=084001 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aa7885 |issn=1748-9326 |bibcode=2017ERL....12h4001W |doi-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Watts |first1=Nick |last2=Amann |first2=Markus |last3=Arnell |first3=Nigel |last4=Ayeb-Karlsson |first4=Sonja |display-authors=4 |last5=Belesova |first5=Kristine |last6=Boykoff |first6=Maxwell |last7=Byass |first7=Peter |last8=Cai |first8=Wenjia |last9=Campbell-Lendrum |first9=Diarmid |last10=Capstick |first10=Stuart |last11=Chambers |first11=Jonathan |s2cid=207976337 |date=2019 |title=The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate |journal=The Lancet |volume=394 |issue=10211 |pages=1836–1878 |doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6 |issn=0140-6736 |pmid=31733928 |pmc=7616843 |bibcode=2019Lanc..394.1836W |hdl=10871/40583 |hdl-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |last=Weart |first=Spencer |title=Rise of interdisciplinary research on climate |year=2013 |volume=110 |pages=3657–3664 |number=Supplement 1 |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |doi=10.1073/pnas.1107482109 |pmid=22778431 |pmc=3586608 |doi-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Wild |first1=M. |last2=Gilgen |first2=Hans |last3=Roesch |first3=Andreas |last4=Ohmura |first4=Atsumu |last5=Long |first5=Charles |s2cid=13124021 |display-authors=4 |year=2005 |title=From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal Changes in Solar Radiation at Earth's Surface |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |volume=308 |issue=5723 |doi=10.1126/science.1103215 |pages=847–850 |pmid=15879214 |bibcode=2005Sci...308..847W}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Williams |first1=Richard G |last2=Ceppi |first2=Paulo |last3=Katavouta |first3=Anna |title=Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling |year=2020 |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |volume=15 |issue=9 |pages=0940c1 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ab97c9 |bibcode=2020ERL....15i40c1W |doi-access=free |hdl=10044/1/80154 |hdl-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Wolff |first1=Eric W. |last2=Shepherd |first2=John G. |last3=Shuckburgh |first3=Emily |last4=Watson |first4=Andrew J. |title=Feedbacks on climate in the Earth system: introduction |journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |pmid=26438277 |pmc=4608041 |doi=10.1098/rsta.2014.0428 |date=2015 |volume=373 |issue=2054 |page=20140428 |bibcode=2015RSPTA.37340428W}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Young |first1=Paul J. |last2=Harper |first2=Anna B. |last3=Huntingford |first3=Chris |last4=Paul |first4=Nigel D. |last5=Morgenstern |first5=Olaf |last6=Newman |first6=Paul A. |last7=Oman |first7=Luke D. |last8=Madronich |first8=Sasha |last9=Garcia |first9=Rolando R. |title=The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink |date=2021 |display-authors=3 |journal=[[Nature (journal)|Nature]] |volume=596 |issue=7872 |pages=384–388 |doi=10.1038/s41586-021-03737-3 |doi-access=free |pmid=34408332 |bibcode=2021Natur.596..384Y}}
*
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* {{cite journal |last1=Zhang |first1=Jinlun |last2=Lindsay |first2=Ron |last3=Steele |first3=Mike |last4=Schweiger |first4=Axel |s2cid=9387303 |date=2008 |title=What drove the dramatic arctic sea ice retreat during summer 2007? |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=35 |issue=11 |pages=1–5 |doi=10.1029/2008gl034005 |bibcode=2008GeoRL..3511505Z |doi-access=free}}
{{refend}}
==== Books, reports and legal documents ====
{{refbegin|30em}}
* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|G8+5 Academies|2009}}
|title=G8+5 Academies' joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future
|date=May 2009
|publisher=The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
|author1=Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil)
|author2=Royal Society of Canada
|author3=Chinese Academy of Sciences
|author4=Académie des Sciences (France)
|author5=Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany)
|author6=Indian National Science Academy
|author7=Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy)
|author8=Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
|author9=Academia Mexicana de Ciencias (Mexico)
|author10=Russian Academy of Sciences
|author11=Academy of Science of South Africa
|author12=Royal Society (United Kingdom)
|author13=National Academy of Sciences (United States of America)
|url=http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100215171429/http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf
|archive-date=15 February 2010
|url-status=dead
|access-date=5 May 2010
}}
* {{cite book
|first1=David |last1=Archer
|author-link=David Archer (scientist)
|first2=Raymond |last2=Pierrehumbert
|author-link2=Raymond Pierrehumbert
|title=The Warming Papers: The Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast
|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PT10|year=2013|publisher=John Wiley & Sons|isbn=978-1-118-68733-8
}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019}}
|url=https://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/fossil-fuel-clean-energy-subsidy-swap.pdf
|title=Fossil Fuel to Clean Energy Subsidy Swaps
|last1=Bridle |first1=Richard
|last2=Sharma |first2=Shruti
|last3=Mostafa |first3=Mostafa
|last4=Geddes |first4=Anna
|date=June 2019
}}
* {{cite web
|title=The Paris Agreement: Summary. Climate Focus Client Brief on the Paris Agreement III
|author=Climate Focus
|date=December 2015
|access-date=12 April 2019
|url=https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/20151228%20COP%2021%20briefing%20FIN.pdf
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181005005832/https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/20151228%20COP%2021%20briefing%20FIN.pdf
|archive-date=5 October 2018
|url-status=live
}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|UN Human Development Report|2020}}
|author =Conceição
|display-authors=etal
| year =2020
| title =Human Development Report 2020 The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene
| url =http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr2020.pdf
| publisher =[[United Nations Development Programme]]
| access-date =9 January 2021
}}
* {{cite report
|last1=DeFries |first1=Ruth
|author-link1=Ruth DeFries
|last2=Edenhofer |first2=Ottmar
|last3=Halliday |first3=Alex
|last4=Heal |first4=Geoffrey
|display-authors=etal
|date=September 2019
|title=The missing economic risks in assessments of climate change impacts
|publisher=Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science
|url=https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-missing-economic-risks-in-assessments-of-climate-change-impacts-2.pdf
}}
* Dessler, Andrew E. and Edward A. Parson, eds. ''The science and politics of global climate change: A guide to the debate'' (Cambridge University Press, 2019).
* {{cite web
|title=The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?
|last=Dessai |first=Suraje
|date=2001
|work=Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12
|publisher=Tyndall Centre
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120610013556/http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp12.pdf
|archive-date=10 June 2012
|url-status=dead
|url=http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp12.pdf
|access-date=5 May 2010
}}
* {{cite book
|last1=Dunlap |first1=Riley E.
|last2=McCright |first2=Aaron M.
|editor-last1=Dryzek |editor-first1=John S.
|editor-first2=Richard B. |editor-last2=Norgaard
|editor-first3=David |editor-last3=Schlosberg
|title=The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society
|publisher=Oxford University Press
|date=2011
|pages=144–160
|chapter=Chapter 10: Organized climate change denial
|isbn=978-0-19-956660-0}}
* {{cite book
|last1=Dunlap |first1=Riley E.
|last2=McCright |first2=Aaron M.
|editor-last1=Dunlap |editor-first1=Riley E.
|editor-first2=Robert J. |editor-last2=Brulle
|title=Climate Change and Society: Sociological Perspectives
|publisher=Oxford University Press
|date=2015
|pages=300–332
|chapter=Chapter 10: Challenging Climate Change: The Denial Countermovement
|isbn=978-0-19-935611-9}}
*{{cite report |ref={{harvid|Ebi et al.|2018}} | last1=Ebi | first1=Kristie L. | last2=Balbus | first2=John | last3=Luber | first3=George | last4=Bole | first4=Aparna | last5=Crimmins | first5=Allison R. | last6=Glass | first6=Gregory E. | last7=Saha | first7=Shubhayu | last8=Shimamoto | first8=Mark M. | last9=Trtanj | first9=Juli M. | last10=White-Newsome | first10=Jalonne L. | title=Chapter 14 : Human Health. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II | date=2018 | doi=10.7930/nca4.2018.ch14}}
* {{cite report
| last=Flavell | first=Alex
| title=IOM outlook on migration, environment and climate change
| publisher=[[International Organization for Migration]] (IOM) | publication-place=Geneva, Switzerland | year=2014
| url = https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/mecc_outlook.pdf
| isbn=978-92-9068-703-0 | oclc=913058074}}
* {{cite book
|title=The Callendar Effect: the life and work of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964)
|year=2007
|last=Fleming |first=James Rodger
|publisher=American Meteorological Society
|___location=Boston
|isbn=978-1-878220-76-9
}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|UNDP|2021}}
|title= Peoples' Climate Vote
|last1 = Flynn |first1=C.
|last2 = Yamasumi |first2=E.
|last3 = Fisher |first3=S.
|last4 = Snow |first4=D.
|last5 = Grant |first5=Z.
|last6 = Kirby |first6=M.
|last7 = Browning |first7=P.
|last8 = Rommerskirchen |first8=M.
|last9 = Russell |first9=I.
|display-authors= 4
|publisher= UNDP and University of Oxford
|date= January 2021
|url= https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/UNDP-Oxford-Peoples-Climate-Vote-Results.pdf
| access-date=5 August 2021
}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|UNDP|2024}}
|title= Peoples' Climate Vote 2024 Results
|last1 = Flynn |first1=C.
|last2 = Jardon |first2=S. T.
|last3 = Fisher |first3=S.
|last4 = Blayney |first4=M.
|last5 = Ward |first5=A.
|last6 = Smith |first6=H.
|last7 = Struthoff |first7=P.
|last8 = Fillingham |first8=Z.
|display-authors= 2
|publisher= UNDP and University of Oxford
|date= June 2024
|url= https://peoplesclimate.vote/document/Peoples_Climate_Vote_Report_2024.pdf
| access-date=1 November 2024
}}
* {{cite report
|author=Global Methane Initiative
|title=Global Methane Emissions and Mitigation Opportunities
|url=https://www.globalmethane.org/documents/gmi-mitigation-factsheet.pdf
|date=2020
|publisher=Global Methane Initiative
}}
* {{cite book
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|last6=Narloch |first6=Ulf
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|display-authors=4
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}}
* {{cite book
|title=Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth
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* {{Cite report |ref={{harvid|IEA|2020b}}
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| title= Energy Efficiency 2020
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* {{Cite report
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* {{cite book
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}}
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* {{cite book
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}}
* {{cite book
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}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|Teske, ed.|2019}}
|chapter=Executive Summary
|date=2019
|title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C
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|editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven
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* {{cite book
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|chapter= Energy Scenario Results
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}}
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|editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven
|publisher=Springer International Publishing
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}}
* {{cite report
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}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|United Nations Environment Programme|2019}}
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}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|United Nations Environment Programme|2024}}
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}}
* {{cite book|author = UNEP |year= 2018|title=The Adaptation Gap Report 2018|___location=Nairobi, Kenya|url =https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report|isbn=978-92-807-3728-8|publisher = United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)}}
* {{cite conference
|year =1992
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}}
<!-- ## -->
* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}
|date =1997
|author=UNFCCC
|title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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}}
<!-- ## -->
<!-- Example: Decision 2/CP.15 in {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009|loc=}} -->
<!-- Cite by paragraph, as page numbering is variable. -->
* {{cite conference |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}
|date =30 March 2010
|author=UNFCCC
|chapter=Decision 2/CP.15: Copenhagen Accord
|title=Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009
|id =FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1
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|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100430005322/https://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg
|archive-date=30 April 2010
|url-status=live
}}
<!-- ## -->
* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Paris Agreement|2015}}
|date =2015
|author=UNFCCC
|title=Paris Agreement
|publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
|url=https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf
}}
<!-- ## -->
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021}}
| author = UNFCCC
| date = 26 February 2021
| title = Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement Synthesis report by the secretariat
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| publisher = [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]]
}}
<!-- ## -->
* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNHCR|2011}}
|title=Climate Change and the Risk of Statelessness: The Situation of Low-lying Island States
|last=Park |first=Susin
|date=May 2011
|publisher=United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
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|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130502223251/http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf
|archive-date=2 May 2013|url-status=live|access-date=13 April 2012
}}
* {{cite report
|author=United States Environmental Protection Agency
|year=2016
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|access-date=27 February 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170906225344/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html
|archive-date=6 September 2017 |url-status=live
}}
* {{cite journal
|last1=Van Oldenborgh |first1=Geert-Jan
|last2=Philip |first2=Sjoukje
|last3=Kew |first3=Sarah
|last4=Vautard |first4=Robert
|display-authors=etal
|date=2019
|website=Semantic Scholar
|s2cid=199454488 |title=Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France
}}
* {{cite book
|ref=none
|last=Weart
|first=Spencer
|date=October 2008
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|edition=2nd
|___location=Cambridge, MA
|publisher=Harvard University Press
|isbn=978-0-674-03189-0
|url=http://history.aip.org/climate/reviews.htm
|access-date=16 June 2020
|url-status=live
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161118000413/http://history.aip.org/climate/reviews.htm
|archive-date=18 November 2016}}
* {{cite book
|ref=none
|last=Weart
|first=Spencer
|date=February 2019
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|edition=online
|url=http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
|access-date=19 June 2020
|url-status=live
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200618075616/http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
|archive-date=18 June 2020
|author-link=Spencer R. Weart}}
** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|last =Weart |first=Spencer
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|chapter=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
|chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
|access-date=19 June 2020
|publisher=American Institute of Physics
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191800/http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|url-status=live
}}
** {{citation|ref=none |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|last =Weart |first=Spencer
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|chapter=The Public and Climate Change
|chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm
|access-date=19 June 2020
|publisher =American Institute of Physics
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|url-status=live
}}
*** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|last =Weart |first=Spencer
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|chapter=The Public and Climate Change: Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)
|chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
|access-date=19 June 2020
|publisher =American Institute of Physics
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|url-status=live
}}
** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|last1=Weart |first1=Spencer
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|title=The Discovery of Global warming
|chapter=The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980)
|chapter-url=https://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
|access-date=19 June 2020
|publisher =American Institute of Physics
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|url-status=live
}}
*** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
|first=Spencer |last=Weart
|date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
|title=The Discovery of Global Warming
|chapter=The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988
|chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#S1988
|access-date=19 June 2020
|publisher=American Institute of Physics
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#S1988
|archive-date=11 November 2016
|url-status=live
}}
* {{cite report|ref={{harvid|World Bank, June|2019}}
|title=State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019
|url=http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/191801559846379845/pdf/State-and-Trends-of-Carbon-Pricing-2019.pdf
|date=June 2019
|publisher=World Bank
|___location=Washington, D.C.
|doi=10.1596/978-1-4648-1435-8
|hdl=10986/29687
|isbn=978-1-4648-1435-8
|hdl-access=free
}}
*{{cite report |ref={{harvid|World Economic Forum|2024}} |author=World Economic Forum |title=Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health |year=2024 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Quantifying_the_Impact_of_Climate_Change_on_Human_Health_2024.pdf}}
* {{Cite report |ref={{harvid|WHO|2016}}
| author= World Health Organization
| year= 2016
| title=Ambient air pollution: a global assessment of exposure and burden of disease
| ___location= Geneva, Switzerland
| isbn = 978-92-4-151135-3
| url= https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1061179/retrieve
}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WHO|2018}}
|publisher=World Health Organization
|title=COP24 Special Report Health and Climate Change
|url=https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/276405/9789241514972-eng.pdf?ua=1
|year=2018
|___location=Geneva
|isbn=978-92-4-151497-2
}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|WMO SAOD|2022}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
|author=[[World Meteorological Organization]]
|publisher=[[World Meteorological Organization]]
|title=Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion|url=https://csl.noaa.gov/assessments/ozone/2022/downloads/2022OzoneAssessment.pdf
|series=GAW Report No. 278
|isbn=978-9914-733-99-0
|year=2022
|___location=Geneva
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022}}
|author=[[World Meteorological Organization]]
|title={{Harvnb|WMO SAOD|2022}}
|chapter-url=https://csl.noaa.gov/assessments/ozone/2022/downloads/executivesummary.pdf
|year=2022
|chapter=Executive Summary
}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO|2024a}}
|publisher=[[World Meteorological Organization]]
|title=WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2023
|url=https://library.wmo.int/viewer/68835/download?file=1347_Global-statement-2023_en.pdf&type=pdf&navigator=1
|year=2024
|___location=Geneva
|series=WMO-No. 1347
|isbn=978-92-63-11347-4
}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|WMO|2024b}}
|publisher=[[World Meteorological Organization]]
|title=WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: 2024-2028
|url=https://library.wmo.int/viewer/68910/download?file=WMO_GADCU_2024-2028_en.pdf&type=pdf&navigator=1
|year=2024
|___location=Geneva
}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, December|2019}}
|publisher=World Resources Institute
|date=December 2019
|title=Creating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Feed Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050
|___location=Washington, D.C.
|url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/wrr-food-full-report.pdf
|isbn=978-1-56973-953-2
}}
{{refend}}
==== Non-technical sources ====
{{refbegin|30em}}
* ''[[Associated Press]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}} |url=https://www.apstylebook.com/blog_posts/4 |title=An addition to AP Stylebook entry on global warming |last=Colford |first=Paul |date=22 September 2015 |website=AP Style Blog |access-date=6 November 2019}}
* ''[[BBC]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|BBC, 1 May|2019}} |date=1 May 2019 |title=UK Parliament declares climate change emergency |publisher=BBC |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48126677 |access-date=30 June 2019}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}} |last=Rigby |first=Sara |date=3 February 2020 |title=Climate change: should we change the terminology? |website=BBC Science Focus Magazine |url=https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/climate-change-should-we-change-the-terminology/ |access-date=24 March 2020}}
* ''[[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists]]''
** {{cite news |last1=Stover |first1=Dawn |title=The global warming 'hiatus' |url=https://thebulletin.org/2014/09/the-global-warming-hiatus/ |work=Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists |date=23 September 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200711032006/https://thebulletin.org/2014/09/the-global-warming-hiatus/ |archive-date=11 July 2020 |url-status=live}}
* ''[[Carbon Brief]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}} |date=4 January 2017 |last=Yeo |first=Sophie |title=Clean energy: The challenge of achieving a 'just transition' for workers |website=Carbon Brief |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/clean-energy-the-challenge-of-achieving-a-just-transition-for-workers |access-date=18 May 2020}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 19 June|2017}} |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/billions-face-deadly-threshold-heat-extremes-2100-study/ |title=Billions to face 'deadly threshold' of heat extremes by 2100, finds study |last=McSweeney |first=Robert M. |date=19 June 2017 |website=Carbon Brief}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 21 November|2017}} |last=Yeo |first=Sophie |date=21 November 2017 |title=Explainer: Why a UN climate deal on HFCs matters |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-why-a-un-climate-deal-on-hfcs-matters |access-date=10 January 2021 |url-status=live |website=Carbon Brief |archive-date=1 May 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240501225407/https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-why-a-un-climate-deal-on-hfcs-matters/}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018}} |date=15 January 2018 |last1=McSweeney |first1=Robert M. |last2=Hausfather |first2=Zeke |title=Q&A: How do climate models work? |website=Carbon Brief |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work |access-date=2 March 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190305004530/https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work |archive-date=5 March 2019 |url-status=live}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}} |date=19 April 2018 |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke |title=Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change |website=Carbon Brief |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change |access-date=20 July 2019}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}} |date=8 October 2018 |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke |title=Analysis: Why the IPCC 1.5C report expanded the carbon budget |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-the-ipcc-1-5c-report-expanded-the-carbon-budget |access-date=28 July 2020 |website=Carbon Brief}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}} |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/media-reaction-australias-bushfires-and-climate-change |title=Media reaction: Australia's bushfires and climate change |last1=Dunne |first1=Daisy |last2=Gabbatiss |first2=Josh |last3=McSweeney |first3=Robert |date=7 January 2020 |website=Carbon Brief |access-date=11 January 2020}}
** {{cite web |ref={{Harvid|Carbon Brief, 10 February|2020}} |last=McSweeney |first=Robert |title=Nine Tipping Points That Could Be Triggered by Climate Change |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change/ |website=Carbon Brief | date=10 February 2020 |access-date=27 May 2022 |archive-date=7 October 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241007002119/https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change/ |url-status=live}}
** {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 16 October|2021}} |last1=Gabbatiss|first1=Josh|last2=Tandon|first2=Ayesha|date=4 October 2021|title=In-depth Q&A: What is 'climate justice'?|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-what-is-climate-justice|access-date=16 October 2021|website=Carbon Brief|language=en}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 3 July|2023}} |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/ |title=Analysis: How low-sulphur shipping rules are affecting global warming |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke |last2=Forster |first2=Piers |author-link2=Piers Forster |date=3 July 2023 |website=Carbon Brief |access-date=2 November 2024}}
* ''[[Climate.gov]]''
** {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Climate.gov, 23 June|2022}} |last=Lindsey |first=Rebecca |title=Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide |website=Climate.gov |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130624204311/http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide |url-status=dead |archive-date=24 June 2013 |date=23 June 2022 |access-date=7 May 2023}}
* ''[[Deutsche Welle]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}} |last1=Ruiz |first1=Irene Banos |title=Climate Action: Can We Change the Climate From the Grassroots Up? |url=https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-action-grassroots-2638915946.html |access-date=23 June 2019 |publisher=Deutsche Welle |date=22 June 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190623124154/https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-action-grassroots-2638915946.html |archive-date=23 June 2019 |url-status=live}}
* ''[[EPA]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2016}} |title=Myths vs. Facts: Denial of Petitions for Reconsideration of the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act |publisher=U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |date=10 September 2020 |url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/myths-vs-facts-denial-petitions-reconsideration-endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute |access-date=7 August 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210523211147/https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/myths-vs-facts-denial-petitions-reconsideration-endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute |archive-date=23 May 2021}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2019}} |url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data |title=Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data |publisher=U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |date=10 September 2024 |access-date=8 August 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200218125157/https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data |archive-date=18 February 2020 |url-status=dead}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2020}} |url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases |title=Overview of Greenhouse Gases |publisher=U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |date=11 April 2024 |access-date=15 September 2020 |archive-date=9 October 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241009203854/https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases}}
* ''[[EUobserver]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}} |date=20 December 2009 |title=Copenhagen failure 'disappointing', 'shameful' |website=EUobserver |access-date=12 April 2019 |url=https://euobserver.com/environment/29181 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190412092312/https://euobserver.com/environment/29181 |archive-date=12 April 2019 |url-status=live}}
* ''[[European Parliament]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|European Parliament, February|2020}} |date=February 2020 |first=M. |last=Ciucci |title=Renewable Energy |website=European Parliament |url=https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/70/renewable-energy |access-date=3 June 2020}}
* ''[[The Guardian]]''<!--
|issn=0261-3077 - not needed, nor ___location.
The parameters for harvid should match the first two parameters used in harvnb for the short-cite in the text. -->
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}} |last=Carrington |first=Damian |date=19 March 2019 |title=School climate strikes: 1.4 million people took part, say campaigners |newspaper=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/19/school-climate-strikes-more-than-1-million-took-part-say-campaigners-greta-thunberg |access-date=12 April 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190320122303/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/19/school-climate-strikes-more-than-1-million-took-part-say-campaigners-greta-thunberg |archive-date=20 March 2019 |url-status=live}}
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}} |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/28/eu-parliament-declares-climate-emergency |title='Our house is on fire': EU parliament declares climate emergency |last=Rankin |first=Jennifer |date=28 November 2019 |work=The Guardian |access-date=28 November 2019 |issn=0261-3077}}
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}} |last=Watts |first=Jonathan |date=19 February 2020 |title=Oil and gas firms 'have had far worse climate impact than thought' |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/19/oil-gas-industry-far-worse-climate-impact-than-thought-fossil-fuels-methane |newspaper=The Guardian}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}} |date=28 October 2020 |last=McCurry |first=Justin |title=South Korea vows to go carbon neutral by 2050 to fight climate emergency |url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/28/south-korea-vows-to-go-carbon-neutral-by-2050-to-fight-climate-emergency |access-date=6 December 2020 |work=The Guardian}}
* ''[[International Energy Agency]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|IEA – Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020}} |title=Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020 |website=IEA |date=9 December 2020 |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/projected-costs-of-generating-electricity-2020 |access-date=4 April 2022}}
* ''[[NASA]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|NASA, 28 May|2013}} |year=2013 |title=Arctic amplification |publisher=NASA |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/news/927/arctic-amplification |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180731054007/https://climate.nasa.gov/news/927/arctic-amplification/ |archive-date=31 July 2018 |url-status=live}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NASA, 5 December|2008}} |date=5 December 2008 |last=Conway |first=Erik M. |author-link=Erik M. Conway |title=What's in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change |publisher=NASA |url=http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100809221926/http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html |archive-date=9 August 2010}}
** {{cite web |date=January 2016 |last1=Shaftel |first1=Holly |title=What's in a name? Weather, global warming and climate change |website=NASA Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming |access-date=12 October 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180928145703/https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming/ |archive-date=28 September 2018 |url-status=dead}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NASA, 7 July|2020}} |date=7 July 2020 |editor-last=Shaftel |editor-first=Holly |editor2-last=Jackson |editor2-first=Randal |editor3-last=Callery |editor3-first=Susan |editor4-last=Bailey |editor4-first=Daniel |title=Overview: Weather, Global Warming and Climate Change |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming-vs-climate-change |access-date=14 July 2020 |website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet}}
* ''[[National Conference of State Legislators]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}} |date=17 April 2020 |title=State Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals |website=National Conference of State Legislators |url=https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx |access-date=3 June 2020}}
* ''[[National Geographic]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}} |last=Welch |first=Craig |url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/arctic-permafrost-is-thawing-it-could-speed-up-climate-change-feature/ |archive-url=https://archive.today/20190814144104/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/arctic-permafrost-is-thawing-it-could-speed-up-climate-change-feature/ |url-status=dead |archive-date=14 August 2019 |title=Arctic permafrost is thawing fast. That affects us all. |date=13 August 2019 |website=National Geographic |access-date=25 August 2019}}
* ''[[National Science Digital Library]]''
** {{cite web |first=James R. |last=Fleming |title=Climate Change and Anthropogenic Greenhouse Warming: A Selection of Key Articles, 1824–1995, with Interpretive Essays |website=National Science Digital Library Project Archive PALE:ClassicArticles |date=17 March 2008 |url=https://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming.html |access-date=7 October 2019}}
* ''[[Natural Resources Defense Council]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}} |date=29 September 2017 |title=What Is the Clean Power Plan? |website=Natural Resources Defense Council |url=https://www.nrdc.org/stories/how-clean-power-plan-works-and-why-it-matters |access-date=3 August 2020}}
* ''[[The New York Times]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}} |title=Paris Can't Be Another Copenhagen |work=The New York Times |last=Rudd |first=Kevin |date=25 May 2015 |access-date=26 May 2015 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/26/opinion/kevin-rudd-paris-cant-be-another-copenhagen.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180203110636/https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/26/opinion/kevin-rudd-paris-cant-be-another-copenhagen.html |archive-date=3 February 2018 |url-status=live}}
* ''[[NOAA]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NOAA, 10 July|2011}} |date=10 July 2011 |author=NOAA |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/polar-opposites-arctic-and-antarctic |title=Polar Opposites: the Arctic and Antarctic |access-date=20 February 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190222152103/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/polar-opposites-arctic-and-antarctic |archive-date=22 February 2019 |url-status=dead}}
** {{cite web |first=Amara |last=Huddleston |title=Happy 200th birthday to Eunice Foote, hidden climate science pioneer |website=NOAA Climate.gov |date=17 July 2019 |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/happy-200th-birthday-eunice-foote-hidden-climate-science-pioneer |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190724162706/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/happy-200th-birthday-eunice-foote-hidden-climate-science-pioneer |url-status=dead |archive-date=24 July 2019 |access-date=8 October 2019}}
* ''[[Our World in Data]]''
** {{cite journal |date=15 January 2018 |last1=Ritchie |first1=Hannah |author1-link=Hannah Ritchie |last2=Roser |first2=Max |author2-link=Max Roser |title=Land Use |journal=Our World in Data |url=https://ourworldindata.org/land-use |access-date=1 December 2019}}
** {{cite web |date=18 September 2020 |ref={{harvid|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}} |last1=Ritchie |first1=Hannah |title=Sector by sector: where do global greenhouse gas emissions come from? |website=Our World in Data |url=https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector |access-date=28 October 2020}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}} |date=2022 |last1=Roser |first1=Max |title=Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? |website=Our World in Data |url=https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth |access-date=4 April 2022}}
* ''[[Pew Research Center]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Pew|2020}} |first1=Moira
|last1=Fagan |first2=Christine |last2=Huang |publisher=Pew Research Center |date=16 October 2020 |title=Many globally are as concerned about climate change as about the spread of infectious diseases |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/16/many-globally-are-as-concerned-about-climate-change-as-about-the-spread-of-infectious-diseases/ |access-date=19 August 2021}}
* ''[[Politico]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Politico, 11 December|2019}} |url=https://www.politico.eu/article/the-commissions-green-deal-plan-unveiled/ |title=Europe's Green Deal plan unveiled |last1=Tamma |first1=Paola |last2=Schaart |first2=Eline |date=11 December 2019 |website=Politico |access-date=29 December 2019 |last3=Gurzu |first3=Anca}}
* ''[[RIVM]]''
** {{cite AV media |ref={{harvid|RIVM|2016}} |date=11 October 2016 |title=Documentary Sea Blind |medium=Dutch Television |language=nl |url=http://www.rivm.nl/en/Documents_and_publications/Common_and_Present/Newsmessages/2016/Documentary_Sea_Blind_on_Dutch_Television |access-date=26 February 2019 |publisher=RIVM: Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180817055817/https://www.rivm.nl/en/Documents_and_publications/Common_and_Present/Newsmessages/2016/Documentary_Sea_Blind_on_Dutch_Television |archive-date=17 August 2018 |url-status=live}}
* ''[[Salon (website)|Salon]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Salon, 25 September|2019}} |first=Evelyn |last=Leopold |title=How leaders planned to avert climate catastrophe at the UN (while Trump hung out in the basement) |url=https://www.salon.com/2019/09/25/how-serious-people-planned-to-avert-climate-catastrophe-at-the-un-while-trump-hung-out-in-the-basement_partner/ |date=25 September 2019 |website=Salon |access-date=20 November 2019}}
* ''[[ScienceBlogs]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Gleick, 7 January|2017}} |last1=Gleick |first1=Peter |title=Statements on Climate Change from Major Scientific Academies, Societies, and Associations (January 2017 update) |date=7 January 2017 |access-date=2 April 2020 |url=https://scienceblogs.com/significantfigures/index.php/2017/01/07/statements-on-climate-change-from-major-scientific-academies-societies-and-associations-january-2017-update |work=ScienceBlogs}}
* ''[[Scientific American]]''
** {{cite magazine |ref={{harvid|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}} |title=Indian Monsoons Are Becoming More Extreme |last=Ogburn |first=Stephanie Paige |date=29 April 2014 |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/ |magazine=Scientific American |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622193126/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/ |archive-date=22 June 2018 |url-status=live}}
* ''[[Smithsonian (magazine)|Smithsonian]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}} |url=https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/studying-climate-past-essential-preparing-todays-rapidly-changing-climate-180959595/ |title=Studying the Climate of the Past Is Essential for Preparing for Today's Rapidly Changing Climate |last=Wing |first=Scott L. |website=Smithsonian |access-date=8 November 2019 |date=29 June 2016}}
* ''The Sustainability Consortium''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}} |website=The Sustainability Consortium |date=13 September 2018 |url=https://www.sustainabilityconsortium.org/2018/09/one-fourth-of-global-forest-loss-permanent-deforestation-is-not-slowing-down/ |title=One-Fourth of Global Forest Loss Permanent: Deforestation Is Not Slowing Down |access-date=1 December 2019}}
* ''[[UNFCCC]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}} |title=What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences? |website=UNFCCC |access-date=12 May 2019 |url=https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190512084017/https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences |archive-date=12 May 2019 |url-status=live}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}} |title=What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? |website=UNFCCC |url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change}}
* ''[[Union of Concerned Scientists]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}} |date=8 January 2017 |title=Carbon Pricing 101 |website=Union of Concerned Scientists |url=https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/carbon-pricing-101 |access-date=15 May 2020}}
* ''[[Vice (website)|Vice]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Vice, 2 May|2019}} |website=Vice |last1=Segalov |first1=Michael |title=The UK Has Declared a Climate Emergency: What Now? |url=https://www.vice.com/en/article/uk-climate-emergency-what-does-it-mean/ |access-date=30 June 2019 |date=2 May 2019}}
* ''[[The Verge]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Verge, 27 December|2019}} |title=2019 was the year of 'climate emergency' declarations |last=Calma |first=Justine |date=27 December 2019 |website=The Verge |url=https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/27/21038949/climate-change-2019-emergency-declaration |access-date=28 March 2020}}
* ''[[Vox (website)|Vox]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Vox, 20 September|2019}} |last1=Roberts |first1=D. |date=20 September 2019 |title=Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap? |website=Vox |url=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity |access-date=28 May 2020}}
* ''[[World Health Organization]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|WHO, Nov|2023}} |date=3 November 2023 |title=We must fight one of the world's biggest health threats: climate change |website=World Health Organization |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/we-must-fight-one-of-the-world-s-biggest-health-threats-climate-change |access-date=19 September 2024}}
* ''[[World Resources Institute]]''
** {{cite journal |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}} |date=8 August 2019 |last1=Levin |first1=Kelly |title=How Effective Is Land At Removing Carbon Pollution? The IPCC Weighs In |website=World Resources institute |url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/how-effective-land-removing-carbon-pollution-ipcc-weighs |access-date=15 May 2020}}
** {{cite journal |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}} |date=8 December 2019 |first1=Frances |last1=Seymour |first2=David |last2=Gibbs |title=Forests in the IPCC Special Report on Land Use: 7 Things to Know |url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/forests-ipcc-special-report-land-use-7-things-know/ |website=World Resources Institute}}
* ''[[Yale Climate Connections]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}} |title=Yale Researcher Anthony Leiserowitz on Studying, Communicating with American Public |date=2 November 2010 |last=Peach |first=Sara |publisher=Yale Climate Connections |access-date=30 July 2018 |url=https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190207130823/https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public/ |archive-date=7 February 2019 |url-status=live}}
{{refend}}
== External links ==
{{Spoken Wikipedia|date=30 October 2021|En-Climate_change-article.ogg}}
{{Scholia}}
{{Library resources box
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* [https://www.ipcc.ch/ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: IPCC] ([[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|IPCC]])
* [https://www.un.org/en/climatechange UN: Climate Change] (UN)
* [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide Met Office: Climate Guide] ([[Met Office]])
* [https://www.noaa.gov/climate National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Climate] ([[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA]])
* [https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes Royal Society. Climate change: Evidence and causes] ([[Royal Society]])
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{{Human impact on the environment}}
{{Earth}}
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[[Category:Climate change| ]]
[[Category:Anthropocene]]
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[[Category:History of climate variability and change]]
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