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==October==
===Week 1===
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And the models [http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png] [http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png] are liking this one for Stan. Grumble, grumble. --[[User:Holderca1|Holderca1]] 18:43, 26 September 2005 (UTC)
:It doesn't look half-bad on the 'ole Navy satellite. On another note, it seems they dropped 98L.invest. --[[user:tomf688|<
::And according to [http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_99.gif das models], it could be entering the Gulf within the next several days. --[[user:tomf688|<
:::It all depends on if it hits the pool of extremely warm water south of the larger Caribbean islands... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 20:11, 26 September 2005 (UTC)
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:[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast]] - [[User talk: E. Brown|Squawk Box]] 03:37, 27 September 2005 (UTC)
::''NHC no longer interested?'' In their most recent TWO, they called it "vigorous", and thunderstorm activity has increased significantly over the past several hours. --[[user:tomf688|<
:::They've got a Hurricane Hunter flight scheduled tomorrow. Note that every Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has taken off and flown into a disturbance this season has found that it was a tropical cyclone. Also, those flights cost a ''lot'' of taxpayer money per flight, so the NHC must be damned curious about it to send a plane down there.
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:::Me too, I have a feeling this may not even reach tropical storm strength - and if it does, only barely...it doesn't have much time to do so before landfall. Possibly if TD20 stalls in the Bay of Campeche and starts to move northward over the Loop Current, it would strengthen though. I'm surprised TD19 is not yet Tropical Storm Stan, although for a distant fish-spinner, you often have to guess...since there is little in the way of observations available, and it would be a waste of resources to send a Hurricane Hunter out there. [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:06, 1 October 2005 (UTC)
::::But what about the shipping interests? WON'T SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE SHIPPING INTERESTS?!?!?! Ahm, pardon me. At any rate, TD20 is still going to pass into the Gulf of Mexico after it crosses the Yucatan, so it could make TS or hurricane there if it doesn't make it before landfall, AND if it doesn't completely dissipate over the peninsula. --[[user:tomf688|<
::What order do we put the page in, if 19 and 20 become Tammy & Stan (respectively)?--[[User:Keith Edkins|Keith Edkins]] 15:16, 1 October 2005 (UTC)
:::Eh, good question. I suppose we rearrange them alphabetically. --[[user:tomf688|<
::::Only if they both develop, in that order. Should 20 become Stan and 19 dissipate, it should remain as it is. [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 00:32, 2 October 2005 (UTC)
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:::And it's gone - well that was exciting, wasn't it? [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 13:05, 4 October 2005 (UTC)
====
''NOTE: Tammy was originally '''21L.Tammy''', but because of the unnamed sub-tropical storm, it became '''22L.Tammy'''; this applies for the rest of the storms that followed.''
=====AoI:10W1-01 - Bahamas=====
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::2005 has not been friendly to anything near Africa. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 16:19, 5 October 2005 (UTC)
:::2005 has been an extremely strange season, so we should be a bit precautious in trusting climatology, Zo. ;) --[[user:tomf688|<
::::Indeed it has been a strange one - and the lack of Cape-Verde-type development in 2005 is a very big part of why it's been a strange season. Thus, I'd either expect that weirdness to continue (i.e. it doesn't develop) or the thing hits Cat 3 and turns back towards Africa. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 21:43, 5 October 2005 (UTC)
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So we come into Week 2 still pretty busy...this could be a long October, extending an already-atrocious season! [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:14, 8 October 2005 (UTC)
====
=====95L.INVEST=====
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:Yes it would. It would be only the second time we got 20 tropical storms that warrant names, and the other was 1933 when storms were not named. [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 16:18, 8 October 2005 (UTC)
::@mike: There has been a great deal of wishcasting here ever since the season began, but there isn't much that can be done except to gently remind people that they are much too overzealous sometimes. Furthermore, considering the shear this system might encounter, it will be lucky if it survives for more than several days. --[[user:tomf688|<
:::If this becomes Vince, we will put the Western Pacific behind in the count again. Currently, we have more overall tropical cyclones (22 as opposed to WP's 20) but we are tied in named storms (19-19). That is one of the reasons I'm cheering this storm on. The other reason being that it's likely to be a fishie. The Atlantic is like the National League of hurricanes and the West Pacific's like the American League: Atlantic's good, but the West Pacific's always better.
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:It's also possible that it may become full-fledged Tropical Depression 22 before reaching tropical storm status... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 22:22, 8 October 2005 (UTC)
::Or it could dissipate, like the NHC says it's doing right now. So much for a cat-1 hurricane striking New England, eh? ;) --[[user:tomf688|<
:::Yup, it dissipated. -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 03:30, 9 October 2005 (UTC)
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Yabba-Dabba-Doo! [http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/9189/023132123sm9jg.gif] -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 05:30, 11 October 2005 (UTC)
====
=====AoI:
11:30 AM TWO mentions:
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=====96L.INVEST=====
Now an invest, according to backup navy site. Very close to the [[Strait of Gibralter]]! [http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi] --[[user:tomf688|<
:I can't see this one developing into a named storm...too far off the beaten path... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 22:23, 8 October 2005 (UTC)
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...is it just me, or does it look somewhat like a HURRICANE now? It has a closed eye! [http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/9594/200510090232meteo7irxinvest96l.jpg] -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 03:21, 9 October 2005 (UTC)
:There is definitely an "eye", but judging from the nearby continents, the storm seems to be very small. --[[user:tomf688|<
::Actually... check out [http://www.metoffice.com/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/ this page] about unusual formation areas for more info on Moroccan vortices. This fits the description of one of these types of storms very well. --[[user:tomf688|<
::Very small it may be, but that's certainly a Subtropical Storm, if not a Subtropical Cyclone (this is the current naming for a hurricane-strength subtropical system, yes?). Vince formed and nobody noticed. Also, those Morrocan storms look to be even smaller than this one and are much closer to shore. --[[User:69.86.16.61|69.86.16.61]] 03:43, 9 October 2005 (UTC)
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Which is much smaller in size? hurricane vince or cyclone tracy? -- [[User:RoswellAtup|RoswellAtup]] 01:05, 10 October 2005 (UTC)
:Roswell... the experts make educated guesses, nothing more. They have little idea what will actually happen, since the tropics are still quite the enigma (as can be seen with Vince). Take any prediction with a grain of salt. --[[user:tomf688|<
We could possibly have a tropical cyclone hit Europe. That's unprecidented! It's expected to make landfall sometime early tomorrow morning. Even if it does become extratropical just before landfall, it's still incredible. I mean, I can't believe were even talking about this: a potential tropical storm hitting Europe.
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:::::That would be one strange storm if Tropical Storm or Hurricane Alberto of 2006 developed in January, when the waters are seldom warm enough for development and wind shear is extreme... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 16:38, 11 October 2005 (UTC)
Have you forgotten about [[Hurricane Alice]], which became a hurricane on December 31, 1954? --[[user:tomf688|<
Look at the UKMET model - is it out to lunch or what? It holds the system back, then gradually intensifies it, then once north of 40°N, BOOM! It drops down at least 30 mb (those charts tend to underestimate pressure so I'd say at least 960 mb based on my estimate) - to a major hurricane at 42°N before landfall in Nova Scotia! Is it even possible for a storm to enter rapid intensification at that latitude? [http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005101212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation] [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 02:06, 13 October 2005 (UTC)
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If that is correct, we are seeing another wierd storm like Vince on our hands. [[User:Fableheroesguild|Fableheroesguild]] 04:01, 14 October 2005 (UTC)
====Areas of Interest====
=====AoI:10W2B - Large Outlook=====
I have yet to see a TWO with this much text on it this season. [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/062143.shtml] Talk about active tropics! --[[user:tomf688|<span style="font-size:small; font-family:garamond; color:#3979BF;">tomf688</span>]]<sup>{[[User talk:Tomf688|talk]]}</sup> 22:00, 6 October 2005 (UTC)
:Pasting for posterity:<br>
<font size='-2'>FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...<br><br>
THE TROPICS ARE ACTIVE TODAY BUT NONE OF THE SYSTEMS POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. <br><br>
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. DATA FROM THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATE THAT UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.<br><br>
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.<br><br>
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.<br><br>
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.<br><br>
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA....UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH.<br><br>
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.</font>
Wow, amazing TWO. -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 22:42, 6 October 2005 (UTC)
The first two of those are 93L and 94L.INVEST. But the other areas weren't mentioned yet. --[[User:Patteroast|Patteroast]] 23:35, 6 October 2005 (UTC)
:Makes you wonder at what point they would say there isn't any "elsewhere" left!--[[User:Keith Edkins|Keith Edkins]] 08:05, 7 October 2005 (UTC)
===== AoI:10W2C - Florida Coast Oct 14 =====
Look at [http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml this]. Note: link is dated. Content will change. It appears that a 60-km or so wide mesocyclone has formed southeast of Melbourne, FL! It sure doesn't look baroclinic to me... has some nice symmetry to it. --[[User:24.176.68.73|24.176.68.73]] 18:30, 14 October 2005 (UTC)
:Just scattered showers, waste of space here.
:[[User: E. Brown|E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast]] - [[User talk: E. Brown|Squawk Box]] 22:32, 14 October 2005 (UTC)
:: Agreed. --[[User:Revolución|Revolución]] ''([[User talk:Revolución|talk]])'' 23:15, 14 October 2005 (UTC)
===Week 3===
====25L.Wilma====
See [[Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/Wilma]]
====Nothing else?====
If it weren't for the potentially-devastating Wilma, all would be quite tranquil right now...how long will it last? It might be a little while before we officially go Greek...there isn't even another invest out there! (Of course, it may be hard to spot with all eyes on Wilma) [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 22:03, 18 October 2005 (UTC)
:It's October. September and the peak of the season are over; we won't always be monitoring something any more. --[[User:69.86.16.61|69.86.16.61]] 22:07, 18 October 2005 (UTC)
:Geeze, there's a huge hurricane getting ready to devastate anything in its way, and you're saying it's "tranquil"... --[[User:Revolución|Revolución]] ''([[User talk:Revolución|talk]])'' 00:50, 19 October 2005 (UTC)
::Calm down, Revolución. That's not what he said. —[[User:BazookaJoe|BazookaJoe]] 01:06, 19 October 2005 (UTC)
Maybe all the other potential invests are trying to help out Wilma? This isn't necessarily a good thing though...it would give the water a chance to rebuild and the eastern Caribbean is still ripe for a fourth (or fifth if Emily is upgraded) Category 5 hurricane...with all the monsters this year, could we see the first ever November Category 5 hurricane? If Emily could reach it (if it is upgraded) in July, what's to say it can't be done in November? [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:34, 19 October 2005 (UTC)
====26L.Alpha====
=====99L.INVEST=====
The NHC is decidedly un-interested in this system (for obvious reasons) but it's been declared an Invest as per the Navy site. It's currently passing through the Lesser Antilles. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 13:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
:They have been mentioning it in the TWO the past several days. --[[User:Holderca1|Holderca1]] 14:46, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
:That wave is marching closer and closer to Wilma, and the closer it gets, the less likely development will be. If Wilma turns east or stalls, 99L should get sheared out by the outflow as it approaches. If, however, it got its act together today, it might be in business.--[[User:Mm35173|Mm35173]] 15:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
::Could it get sucked into Wilma? What would happen if it did? [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 16:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
:::It would have to get quite a bit closer before it can happen. A stronger system can absorb a weaker system if they are close enough together. Hurricane Iris gobbled up tropical storm Karen in 1995 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Iris], and this year saw two similar events: hurricane Max absorbing tropical storm Lidia in the Pacific about a month ago, about the same time that a large low pressure system absorbed tropical storm Philippe. [[User:B.Wind|B.Wind]] 17:50, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
NHC getting interested.
A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
Could this be the next one (I won't say it in case I jynx it)? [[User:Hurricanehink|Hurricanehink]] 22:19, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
I don't blame the NHC for not really putting emphasize on it. They want to focus on Wilma and at the same time praying that nothing will become of this new investigation. [[User:tdwuhs|tdwuhs]]
:Agreed, I can't see this blob developing into much. If it is notable for anything, all it will do is help out the big fish out there, and it will give Wilma an extra arm... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 05:06, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
=====Tropical Depression 25=====
TD 25 says NRL [http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html]. Could this be Alpha?!?!?! [[User:Hurricanehink|Hurricanehink]] 13:12, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
Here are the Computer Models.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE (AL252005) ON 20051022 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 67.5W 16.8N 69.9W 18.1N 72.1W 20.0N 74.0W
BAMM 15.8N 67.5W 17.1N 69.9W 18.4N 71.8W 20.1N 73.8W
A98E 15.8N 67.5W 16.5N 70.0W 17.3N 72.2W 18.9N 74.2W
LBAR 15.8N 67.5W 16.9N 69.7W 18.5N 71.6W 20.5N 73.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 33KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200 051027 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.4W 33.8N 71.3W 43.7N 53.4W 37.4N 25.8W
BAMM 23.2N 75.3W 32.3N 72.0W 41.4N 56.2W 39.8N 29.0W
A98E 22.4N 74.8W 28.2N 70.9W 34.7N 59.6W 37.7N 37.4W
LBAR 23.5N 74.1W 37.9N 66.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 51KTS 34KTS
DSHP 43KTS 45KTS 43KTS 25KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 62.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
[[User:Hurricanehink|Hurricanehink]] 13:24, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:...Geez! This season is crazy. I have to think it WILL become Alpha...O_O -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 13:25, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::Fortunately the models seem to be in good agreement in terms of the forecast track: out to sea. [http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_25.gif] Nevertheless, storms in the formulative stages have a tendency to do whatever the hell they want to. --[[user:tomf688|<span style="font-size:small; font-family:garamond; color:#3979BF;">tomf688</span>]]<sup>{[[User talk:Tomf688|talk]]}</sup> 13:38, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:::"Out To Sea" to you may mean something completely different for Haiti, a nation with a history of massive death tolls from weak storms. What happens if 50-MPH Tropical Storm Alpha kills 2,000? How do you retire a greek letter? [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 14:36, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::::The NHC said that they would simply drop the letter - the next 22nd storm of a season would be Beta rather than Alpha. --[[User:69.86.16.61|69.86.16.61]] 15:24, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:::::Thanks for the info, and I echo Eric below in wanting to see where you heard that. Just think of the meteorological complications of retiring "Alpha". The "specific volume" form of the Ideal Gas Law will never be the same. Sororities and Fraternities everywhere will freak out, wondering what to re-name themselves. The famous Christ quote in the bible will be changed to "I am the Beta and the Omega". And some n00b will come in here to this talk page and start speculating on which alphabet we'll use once the Greek list is exhausted. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 17:45, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:::::: I can vouch for him that there exists a source for that. However, I just can't find it! I remember it was a Q&A and the article posted as a picture, so it's difficult to search for it on Google. I'm asking around on wunderground. [[User:AySz88|AySz88<font color=FF9966>^</font>]][[User_talk:AySz88|<font color=FF6633>-</font>]][[Special:Contributions/AySz88|<font color=FF3300>^</font>]] 18:02, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::::Do they retire tropical storms, even if they kill a lot of people? There have been some hurricanes with high death tolls that did not get retired. Though at this point, the possibility of a greek letter (other than Alpha) developing into a retirable name is definitely there. [[User:PK9|PK9]] 15:02, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
:::::[[Tropical Storm Allison]] is the only non-hurricane to have its name retired. -- [[User:69.86.16.61|69.86.16.61]] 19:57, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
The NHC says that it will get sucked into Wilma late in the forecast period. This will be neat: we might get to see a little Fugiwhara dance out in the Atlantic, east of Georgia... It is going to be complicated, though. Wilma will be surfing the eastern side of a cold front and will be bordering extratropical. If the front moves slowly, all of that stuff could make a mess up in New England. --[[User:Mm35173|Mm35173]] 15:14, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:The NHC says that with the current trend, strengthening to a tropical storm is likely. That's a bit disconcerting. NHC rarely says something is 'likely' even when it is. They usually say 'possible'. 69.86... where did you get that info, that's interesting?
:[[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 16:40, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
Damn it! Damn it! Damn it! It's headed right for Haiti. I think this could be another [[Hurricane Jeanne|Jeanne]] disaster if it develops. --[[User:Revolución|Revolución]] ''([[User talk:Revolución|talk]])'' 17:07, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:My fears exactly. Let's keep them in our thoughts and prayers. —[[User:BazookaJoe|BazookaJoe]] 17:51, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::It's moving fairly quickly. Let's hope that continues.
::[[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 18:29, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
=====Tropical Storm Alpha=====
It is now listed as '''Alpha''' [http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=10&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=25L.ALPHA&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables&DISPLAY= at the navy site].--[[User:Jyril|Jyril]] 19:09, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:...everyone, history has been made...the records, shattered...no words... -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 19:12, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
The records have been broken ... again. [[User:Freiberg|Freiberg]] 01:17, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
:While I have no doubt the next NHC update will reflect the upgrade to TS Alpha, is using the Navy site as a baseline correct? The NHC is the official forecaster of Atlantic storms, not the Navy, and the NHC is still calling it a depression. [[User:Coldcaffeine|ColdCaffeine]] 19:45, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::I was about to mention that too ... I'm sure the NHC will call it as such ... however the Navy is not the official site .... NHC is. [[User:SargeAbernathy|SargeAbernathy]] 19:54, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:::The Navy gets their info from the NHC. --[[User:Holderca1|Holderca1]] 19:51, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::::Ah! True True. I see the "From NHC" link above the storm. Why would NHC give the Navy a heads up before the general public though? [[User:SargeAbernathy|SargeAbernathy]] 19:54, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:::::Because the Navy handles things like hurricane hunters and other things, I think. The Navy is a major partner in all this. --[[User:Golbez|Golbez]] 20:00, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:::::The NHC would not pass the information directly to the Navy, it would be passed up the chain and then over to the [[Department of Defense|DoD]]. The DoD controls the hurricane hunters which are Air Force Reserve assets. The Navy provides storm information to all DoD assets. The projected path charts you see on the Navy site is what DoD installations use to determine what actions to take to prepare for the storm. --[[User:Holderca1|Holderca1]] 20:11, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
HA! http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200525_model.gif I always love these early model predictions .... One second it ends up in Maine, next prediction it's in Istanbul or something :) [[User:SargeAbernathy|SargeAbernathy]] 19:58, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
: But it still goes over Hispaniola, that seems inevitable. Bad thing. --[[User:Jyril|Jyril]] 20:06, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::What can you say - this is unbelieveable. Who knows what that fraternity named Alpha will do? Maybe they just want to wait for Wilma to pick itself up? [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 21:58, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:::Not sure what you mean there but this is incredible. The 1933 record stood for 72 years. I'm in a state of disbelief right now (and so is the NHC, I would imagine). This season has also set another record: Most records broken in a season. Don't know what the old record was, but this one certainly broke it.
<center>''Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, Wilma'', and ''Alpha''.</center>
:::You all (talking to the storms, stupid, I know) have helped make this season one of the most infamous on record. Satan salutes you (we despise you). Congratulations fellow Wikipedians, we all now live in a world gone completely insane.
:::[[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 00:47, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
::::And it probably isn't done yet. The sorority Beta will want to come out to play sooner or later (I am alternating male/female club names based on how they would have been otherwise)... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 02:20, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
Let's all hope Alpha isn't a Jeanne wannabe. Let's keep the people of Hispaniola in our prayers. [[User:tdwuhs|tdwuhs]]
Advisotry for Alpha from NHC
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA (AL252005) ON 20051022 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1800 051023 0600 051023 1800 051024 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 68.5W 17.7N 70.8W 19.3N 72.9W 22.0N 74.5W
BAMM 16.5N 68.5W 18.0N 70.7W 19.7N 72.3W 22.4N 73.5W
A98E 16.5N 68.5W 18.1N 70.5W 19.4N 72.4W 21.3N 73.6W
LBAR 16.5N 68.5W 17.9N 70.3W 19.7N 71.9W 22.3N 73.2W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 33KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1800 051025 1800 051026 1800 051027 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 74.4W 38.9N 64.8W 37.7N 40.3W 28.1N 37.8W
BAMM 26.9N 72.9W 39.1N 63.4W 39.8N 40.8W 30.2N 33.3W
A98E 26.0N 72.2W 34.2N 63.9W 38.6N 46.5W 30.4N 31.4W
LBAR 26.5N 72.8W 42.1N 57.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 57KTS 39KTS
DSHP 43KTS 46KTS 46KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 66.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 63.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM
=====ACE calcs=====
{| border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="3"
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
!Adv.
!Date
!Time
!Maximum Sustained Winds (kt)
!ACE (10<sup>4</sup> kt<sup>2</sup>)
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al252005.discus.002.shtml? 2]||22 Oct||align="right"|5 pm EDT||align="center"|35||align="center"|0.1225
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al252005.discus.003.shtml? 3]|| ||align="right"|11 pm EDT||align="center"|45||align="center"|0.2025
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al252005.discus.004.shtml? 4]||23 Oct||align="right"|5 am EDT||align="center"|45||align="center"|0.2025
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al252005.discus.005.shtml? 5]|| ||align="right"|11 am EDT||align="center"|Tropical Depression||align="center"|N/A
|-
|6|| ||align="right"|5 pm EDT||align="center"|Tropical Depression||align="center"|N/A
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|7|| ||align="right"|11 pm EDT||align="center"|Tropical Depression||align="center"|N/A
|-
|'''Total'''||align="right"| ||align="center"| || ||align="center"|'''0.5275'''
|}
Question... the forecast shows Alpha dipping below storm stregnth, and then regaining stroms strength later. Are the wind speeds from when Alpha is below storm stregnth included in the storm's ACE? [[User:Tompw|Tompw]] 22:51, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:My understanding was that ACE only accumulates at those 6-hour intervals when the system is at tropical storm or hurricane strength. Periods spent as a TD are ignored for ACE purposes. --[[User:DavidK93|DavidK93]] 02:18, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
:Yes, it is calculated when it is above tropical storm strength. As far as the extratropical, it is not included and the NHC discontinues the advisories at that point anyway. The only question I have on it is, typically the last advisory issued says it has become extratropical. Although at that point NOAA will update their page with all the ACE values and it would be a moot point. --[[User:Holderca1|Holderca1]] 15:32, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
::Now what if it regains TS strength at an intermediate advisory and then loses it 3 hours later?--Louis E./[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 21:25, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
:::In this case, it depends on the best track data. If the 6-hourly best track data show that it regains TS strength, then it should be included.
:::In fact, our usual practice is to use the intensity in the best track data to do the calculation. As the intermediate advisory is issued at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z or 18Z (the time used in best track data), the system may be treated as a tropical storm in the best track data.[[User:Momoko|Momoko]] 08:45, 24 October 2005 (UTC)
Is everybody in Haiti & Dominican Republic okay? --[[User:Revolución|Revolución]] ''([[User talk:Revolución|talk]])'' 22:02, 23 October 2005 (UTC)
:I Googled it and one site reports 3 dead, another only 1 and several report widespread flooding. [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 03:23, 24 October 2005 (UTC)
====91L.INVEST (Erroneous)====
The [http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi Backup Navy site] has a 91L invest on their site, and it's very close to where TD25 is, but the image is centered a little further south. What could this mean? -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 17:35, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:It must be some sort of error. TD25 is TD25 with nothing else really "there", and also, that would mean that they skipped 90L, since TD25 formed out of 99L. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 17:42, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
: I don't know if I would trust it.... It also lists TD25 as 25L.TWENTY-FIVE, which I heard means that they consider it a yet-unnamed-by-NHC tropical storm already. [[User:AySz88|AySz88<font color=FF9966>^</font>]][[User_talk:AySz88|<font color=FF6633>-</font>]][[Special:Contributions/AySz88|<font color=FF3300>^</font>]] 17:44, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::No I don't think that is what it means, click on the all storms button and you will see that they have the following storms 10L.TEN, 19L.NINETEEN, and 22L.TWENTY-TWO. It just looks like the backup site uses the number rather than NONAME as the primary site does. --[[User:Holderca1|Holderca1]] 18:18, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
:I say it is an error. The [http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Primary Navy site] makes no mention of it. --[[User:Holderca1|Holderca1]] 18:14, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
::It's off the backup site now as well. An error, it 'twas. --[[user:tomf688|<span style="font-size:small; font-family:garamond; color:#3979BF;">tomf688</span>]]<sup>{[[User talk:Tomf688|talk]]}</sup> 03:12, 24 October 2005 (UTC)
===Week 4===
====27L.Beta====
=====Beyond Wilmalpha=====
In my glances around the internet, I don't believe anyone else has noted this - but nearly every major model is calling for development in the southwest Caribbean in the 3-6 day time span, and this has been consistent over the last few model runs. Otherwise things look quiet but as Wilma writes her last chapter, this may be where our eyes should turn. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 12:19, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
:Could that be Beta on the horizon? Then again, Wilma seems to still have more to write about... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 16:15, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
:I don't want anything else to develop. I had betted on Stan being the last, but that didn't work out. So I thought it would be more reasonable to say Beta, and now we're almost to that! I'm getting tired of having to change my prediction. ;-) But seriously, I think there needs to be some peace in the Atlantic for once. --[[User:Revolución|Revolución]] ''([[User talk:Revolución|talk]])'' 17:27, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
::Heck, I originally picked Beta thinking that we wouldn't get close. I picked it just to pick it. Now it is possible to go past Beta. --[[User:Holderca1|Holderca1]] 17:37, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
::: I'll be changing my vote to Zeta if Gamma forms. And if it gets past Zeta, I'm going to have a heart attack... --[[User:Revolución|Revolución]] ''([[User talk:Revolución|talk]])'' 17:39, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
:::: A sobering note. The Hurricane Season doesn't officially end until the end of november. We still have a month to go yet!
Does anyone else remember 08L.NONAME (1991)? Wilma is getting wrapped up in a monster Nor'easter. This situation looks very similar. If the extratropical low gets hung out over the Gulf Stream, weird things can and do happen.--[[User:Mm35173|Mm35173]] 18:55, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
:I was thinking we might have something like that happen, too, but it's looking like Wilma's moisture isn't going to be brought into the Nor'easter after all. Which is a good thing, because it could be a monster if it did...
:On the other hand, the TWO is now mentioning two systems, the first of which was already mentioned by The Great Zo. --[[User:Patteroast|Patteroast]] 19:04, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
::Looking at satellite, the second area is sheared straight to heck. The first area (which Jeff Masters of WUnderground mentioned a few hours after my post here) needs watching, especially because it isn't often the NHC introduces a system to the TWO with "development of this system is possible". [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 19:33, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
:::That second one should die before it does anything, although that first area has Beta written all over it (although I can't see it getting to high intensity). If a weird Perfect Storm-style hurricane were to develop out of the nor'easter, would they go ahead and name it Beta (or Gamma), or leave it as 26L.NONAME (Hurricane #26)? [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 22:24, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
::As of the 10/25 @ 530 p.m. TWO, Dr. Avila changed the Caribbean formation bit to "CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO." Sounds like a depression is likely. This could be Beta. Looks like it has more potential than the Lesser Antilles storm. [[User:Coldcaffeine|ColdCaffeine]] 23:15, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
:@Crazy: It would have to be tropical or subtropical for it to receive a name. --[[user:tomf688|<span style="font-size:small; font-family:garamond; color:#3979BF;">tomf688</span>]]<sup>{[[User talk:Tomf688|talk]]}</sup> 00:46, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
::I believe he was referring to the "Perfect Storm" which spawned a new tropical system (a hurricane, in fact) that the NHC opted to leave unnamed - to avoid public confusion. If something were to develop in the same way out of the Wilmalpha Nor'Easter, they could opt to do the same again. Of course, that won't happen this time. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 02:40, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
=====90L.INVEST=====
[http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi Here] we go again! -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 01:30, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
Oh my! Toto, I don't think were in the Atlantic any more! [[User:tdwuhs|tdwuhs]]
::Looks more like the Western Pacific don't it. -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 19:03, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
:Beta, anyone? This is getting out of hand!!! [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 02:07, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
::Just curious... is there a reason you seem to get giddy with every single invest that comes along? I'm a bit of a hurricane-phile (did I just make that word up?) but enough is enough after a while. Sure this season has been unique and interesting to document but honestly there comes a point where you just hope this season slows down a little bit. We're not supposed to see this kind of activity in October, let alone the pace the entire season has been setting. I'm just wondering why the enthusiasm every time a wave shows up. --[[User:RPIRED|RPIRED]] 12:34, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
::Has anyone noticed that the Atlantic now is much more active than the east and west pacific? How freaky can you get? [[User:RoswellAtup|RoswellAtup]]
:::The basins have often worked in opposite of each other. In 1983, the Pacifc exhausted it's naming list, while the Atlantic only had four named storms the entire season. --[[user:tomf688|<span style="font-size:small; font-family:garamond; color:#3979BF;">tomf688</span>]]<sup>{[[User talk:Tomf688|talk]]}</sup> 12:18, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
:That is not always true at all, 2003 hurricane seasons in both basins were tied at 16 [[User:RoswellAtup|RoswellAtup]]
::16 is only slightly above average for the Eastern Pacific though... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:56, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
Looking better. Recon is set to check it out in a couple days. [[User:Hurricanehink|Hurricanehink]] 14:24, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
:Honestly, between satellite and quikscat, this thing looks like it's going to be a depression sooner rather than later. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 16:14, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
::NHC says conditions are favorable for development. There is a chance that it could hit Central America before it develops. -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 19:02, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
OH TOTO!
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT
ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT
OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
[[User:tdwuhs|tdwuhs]]
=====Tropical Depression 26=====
The Navy Site now lists it at 26L.NONAME... --[[User:Patteroast|Patteroast]] 01:17, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:No surprise. However this one looks like it will be a quick landfall, probably at tropical storm strength. One thing this might do is cross into the Pacific though... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 01:53, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
::The forecast I saw in the TWO suggest a northwestward drift, which seems more likely to take it over Nicaragua and back over water in the NW Caribbean, rather than the Pacific. --[[User:DavidK93|DavidK93]] 02:25, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
Odd, the Backup Navy site has an additional 92L for this system, most likely the same problem with TD25 and the erroneous 90L. -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 02:38, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
Uh-oh this is predicted to go into Central America! Let's hope it's not like Stan or worse Mitch! Beta you better be tame! [[User:tdwuhs|tdwuhs]]
''<nowiki>[Cocks gun. Puts gun to head and pulls trigger. Blood and brains spill onto floor. Sad music plays.]</nowiki>'' Tell me I'm dreaming. Will someone please tell me that? Tell me the 26th tropical depression of the season has not formed. The weathered faces of the NHC guys probably have several more wrinkles than they had in May. I'm about ready to go clinically insane here. This is looking more and more like a Western Pacific season and the West Pacific, meanwhile, is quiet. What's wrong with this picture? I cannot believe this is happening. I just cannot believe it. -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 03:19, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:Two things worry me from the discussion:
::"WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN CONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE WARNINGS"
:... and ...
::"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL."
:Both situations aren't positive at all. I assume the Colombians coordinate warnings for Central America, so this means the people in the areas that will be affected are going to have even ''less'' warning than usual. Also, this thing could be a hurricane! Very very troublesome indeed. --[[user:tomf688|<span style="font-size:small; font-family:garamond; color:#3979BF;">tomf688</span>]]<sup>{[[User talk:Tomf688|talk]]}</sup> 03:25, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
::I seriously doubt that this will become a hurricane, but it's not impossible. -- [[User: E. Brown|E. Brown]]
:::No, the tiny islands that they're mentioning in the advisory are owned by Colombia. [[User:Bob rulz|bob rulz]] 04:56, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
=====Tropical Storm Beta=====
Now listed as [http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Beta]. [[User:Ajm81|Ajm81]] 07:07, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:I would have never thought we would have gotten this far...Jane, stop this crazy thing! -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 07:11, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
Damn it, Stop you crazy season! Although Alpha wasn't as bad as feared, this is another section of the world that could see major damage from even a tropical storm. [[User:SargeAbernathy|SargeAbernathy]] 09:18, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
From Discussion #2: "SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTANLY POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING." Rather worrying stuff. The wind chart from advisory #1 implies greater than 20% chance of becoming a hurricane. [[User:Tompw|Tompw]] 13:39, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:The GFDL brings it to Cat 2 at landfall and the Canadian model <s>is on crack</s> takes it up towards Florida. Obviously, these are the outliers - a general concensus would be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane to hit Nicaragua. The conditions are insanely ripe, so if it hangs off the coast a bit longer, who knows how rapid it could ramp itself up. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 13:40, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
::Christ, I thought people were kidding when they guess in Greeks. Good God this can't be happening. The West Pacific seems to have moved to the Atlantic. Let's hope it's not here to stay. I feel like I'm in a car going 150 mph with a murderous psycopath at the wheel. This season has drifted well past insane. -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 13:43, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:::Dude, could you not mention "150 mph," please? Might as well chant "Bloody Mary" into a mirror at midnight. --[[User:DavidK93|DavidK93]] 14:06, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
::::It's better than "150 knots" though...although I'm sure this sorority wants to get there, they don't have much time (thank God!) [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:32, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
doesn't sound good -there is an 85 KT forecast now[[User:C-randles|crandles]] 14:53, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:60 mph as of 2 pm so most of the strengthening forecast for twelve hours has happened in three.I tend to think of Alpha,Beta,etc. as one co-ed fraternity/sorority of which the storms are members...here's hoping pledge week is a dud!--Louis E./le@put.com/[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 18:47, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
::I alternate it as if the gender run continued...like Vince (M) - Wilma (F) - Alpha (M) - Beta (F) - Gamma (M) - Delta (F) - etc. [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 19:12, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:::Yes,but Beta is not a sorority all by herself,she's a sister of the Greek Letter Society.--Louis E./le@put.com/[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 19:50, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
::::What's with the Beta sorority jokes? Sororities either have two or three Greek letters. Is there some "joke" I missed? [[User:Mike Halterman|Mike H]] [[User_talk:Mike Halterman|(Talking is hot)]] 20:44, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:::::It could be a short-form being used for something like Beta Beta Beta... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 22:11, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:::::See above. Basically, during the initial discussion about the Greek letters, someone started calling them fraternities. However, that would be sexist so CrazyC decided to continue the alternation of genders, hence the Alpha fraternity and the Beta sorority. [[User:PK9|PK9]] 23:13, 27 October 2005 (UTC) <p>
::::::But my point is that the ''hurricanes'' are (like the ones with people's names) best considered as ''individuals'' who are ''members'' of a ''co-ed'' fraternity/sorority.Not each of them being a collective group.--Louis E./le@put.com/[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 23:50, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE ANY SURPRISE IF BETA GOT STRONGER AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
Ugh, with this season, I don't know what is a surprise any longer. [[User:Titoxd|Tito]][[Wikipedia:Esperanza|<span style="color:#008000;">xd</span>]]<sup>([[User_talk:Titoxd|?!?]])</sup> 20:57, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:At this point, anything's possible. Category 5, anyone? (Please, no...) [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 22:10, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
::Ahhh! No! Crazy C, don't take this the wrong way, but everytime you mentioned Category 5 in a storm discussion, something bad happened. It's like in the old Western movies where the good guys walk into town and say, "It's quiet...too quiet." I'm still hoping that it won't get any worse than a low end Category 3. Or, better yet, upwell some cold water and weaken. -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 22:23, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
Well,the future can hold anything from<p>AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION<p>to<p>WINDS OF INCONCEIVABLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE GODZILLA REACH SUPERSONIC SPEED...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LOST AFTER REPORTING EXPLOSION OF DROPSONDE IN CENTRAL VACUUUM...PRESIDENT ORDERS EVACUATION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TIME ZONES...MOST OF FLORIDA WILL BE UNDERWATER BY THE TIME YOU READ THIS...IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD...THAT'S ALL FOLKS!--Louis E./le@put.com/[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 22:58, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
She doesn't want to strengthen right now...that has bought people time and means that she won't get as strong as otherwise first thought... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:28, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
:Wilma, Rita, and Katrina all stalled out at a certain level for a while. As a caveat, so did Lee... but you see what I'm saying is possible. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 16:24, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
::Almost a hurricane now, up to 70 mph (and they say it is a conservative estimate). Special advisory at 1 am, anyone? [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 03:13, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
:::Ouch, this could be ''really'' bad. Look at the latest forecast track. It moves it excruciatingly slowly over Nicaragua, Honduras, ''and'' Guatemala! That's not good at all. [[User:Bob rulz|bob rulz]] 04:05, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
Looks like she wants to go into Stan's ruins? This could be catastrophic, even if Beta doesn't strengthen a whole lot!!! [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 04:17, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
=====Hurricane Beta=====
Beta is now a hurricane according to the NHC. -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 06:04, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
:Latest intermediate advisory confirms that [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/]. [[User:Titoxd|Tito]][[Wikipedia:Esperanza|<span style="color:#008000;">xd</span>]]<sup>([[User_talk:Titoxd|?!?]])</sup> 06:06, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
::Let's hope that expected Cat 2 landfall doesn't happen (at Cat 2, at least). -- [[User:NSLE|<font color="#5CAFF3">NS</font color><font color="#ff2020">LE</font color>]] <sub>([[User_talk:NSLE|<font color="orange">Commu</font color><font color="darkred">nicate!</font color>]])</sub> <sup><[[Special:Contributions/NSLE|<font color="green">Contribs</font color>]]></sup> 06:10, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
: I know we have to call it Hurricane Beta, but Hurricane β looks really cool. "β is rapidly intensifying!" "β is forecast to ravage Nicaragua." [[User:Timl2k4|TimL]]
Looks like she's starting to charge! Could this be the seventh major hurricane of the season? I think she just might reach that! (Although Category 5 seems highly unlikely unless it turns north and northeast) [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:14, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
:It seems likely that Beta's going to strengthen like this until it runs outta water. The question is when that will be? NHC says sometime tomorrow...the day before Halloween. Nature's cruel sense of humor strikes again. -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 17:55, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
::Not the Trick or Treater you want at your door! But this sorority really wants to do so... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 18:13, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
:::''Trick or treat. Smell my feet, give me something good to eat. If you don't, I don't care. I'll fill your life with death and despair.'' -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' - <small>''[[Special:Contributions/E. Brown|archive]]''</small> 06:01, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
:'''Not again:...
:: AN 1140Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT BETA HAS A '''PINHOLE EYE''' UNDERNEATH
ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH HAS CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -80C JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER. (emphasis mine) [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/291434.shtml] [[User:Michelle T|Miss Michelle]] | [[User talk:Michelle T|Talk to Michelle]] 20:22, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
:Beta's pressure has been rising so it might be possible that wave passing by is killing her!Or it could be possible that they're combining to make a more powerful Beta...*shivers*
--[[User:HurricaneJeanne|HurricaneJeanne]] 20:51, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
::For the record, Beta's pressure never actually rose. They had it estimated at 975, and the plane found 981 - so it never weakened, but it just wasn't as deep as the estimation, er, estimated. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 07:12, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
I don't know what to say. The presence of the pinhole eye will make Beta extremely volatile right now - I'd say there is a 60% chance that this thing will go into rapid intensification and become a Category 3 or 4 hurricane (with a slight chance of Category 5), about a 10% chance that she will hold steady, and a 30% chance that she will start to lose her convection due to the rising pressure. Right now I think the pressure was an aberration - the later advisories will tell the tale. [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 21:08, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
:If you look [http://image.weather.com/looper/archive/caribsat_600x405/4L.jpg?1130630234690 here] she is starting to look healthier.But the other wave seems to have dissipated before even coming near her.But her pressure has been the same for the past two advisories so let's hope this means she is starting to die because the water is getting shallow. ^^[[User:HurricaneJeanne|HurricaneJeanne]] 00:02, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
::Looking at Advisory 13 and Discussion 13,it may be time for a "Major Hurricane Beta" subhead when they reach #14.--Louis E./le@put.com/[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 02:52, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
:::Or 13A, or Special Advisory 14... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 05:03, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
Beta is at 105 and has a few hours till landfall only 6 till it's a 3!!! On top of that it's the Anniversay of Hurricane Mitch! Let's hope Beta doesn't want to spook the people of Central America like Mitch did. Let's keep them in our toughts and prayers. [[User:tdwuhs|tdwuhs]]
:Is it really? That's unsettling. Mitch did more than spook the people of Central America. He murdered 18,000 of them in less than a week. The presence of a pinhole eye is not by itself a bad thing. It simply means that the storm's structure is extremely well organized and set for strengthening. Storms with a pinhole eye are more intense and have a tighter circulation than other storms. But pinhole eyes are very unstable. In an eyewall replacement cycle, they are ''very'' prone to complete collapse, causing a dramatic weakening of the storm. Opal briefly developed a pinhole before undergoing a replacement cycle right as it hit as thin bank of dry air. The storm nearly fell apart. Didn't help Florida much though. Most meteorologists will tell you that bigger, symetrical eyes like Katrina's are more stable and can take a serious beating without weakening much. That's what happened with a new and improved Hurricane Wilma. She developed a strong eye and eyewall that resisted the wind shear. Thus the results in Miami. Plus, Beta's eye is not even visible in the satellite imagry. There is no way that's stable. It's like using a thin stick as a cane, not much support to offer. It's not like Wilma's or Gilbert's pinhole eyes. Those were wider, more symetrical and more intense. They were the real Macoys. Beta's is a wannabe.
:[[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' - <small>''[[Special:Contributions/E. Brown|archive]]''</small> 04:17, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
::Not gonna complain, but looks like one of CrazyC's insane predictions actually DIDN'T turn up true this time! Beta may breifly hit Cat 3 before landfall, but for whatever reason, it just couldn't strengthen too much until it was too late. However it would be prudent to keep in mind that the people inland who are about to be hurt, made homeless, or killed, won't care what category we're ranking it at over water. [[User:The Great Zo|The Great Zo]] 07:12, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
=====Major Hurricane Beta=====
Beta was just upgraded to Category 3. [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/300851.shtml] [[User:Ajm81|Ajm81]] 08:59, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
NHC said that Beta was the eighth major hurricane in Discussion #14. Did they make a mistake? [[User:202.40.137.199|202.40.137.199]] 12:48, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
:Yes they did...since no other storm even came relatively close to Category 3 (Irene was the only Cat 2 and that was a struggle to reach it)... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:25, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
::And two separate sections below have formed to ask and answer that same question.Meanwhile Beta is now a bare Category 1 at Advisory 15A and will probably be a TS for Advisory 16.--Louis E./le@put.com/[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 18:32, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
Meanwhile, check out what [http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/10/30/beta.hurricane/index.html CNN writes]:
Thousands of residents sought shelter from the storm in boarded-up homes or government shelters.
Beta, the <b>26th named storm</b> of a record Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall near La Barra,
Nicaragua, at about 7 a.m. ET as a Category 2 storm, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Now, everyone knows there are 26 letters in the Roman alphabet, but if we're going by naming storms, the 26th would be Epsilon. -- [[User:RattleMan|RattleMan]] 23:04, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
:Can you say T-Y-P-O? -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' - <small>''[[Special:Contributions/E. Brown|archive]]''</small> 04:15, 31 October 2005 (UTC)
::roffle [[User:Mike Halterman|Mike H]] [[User_talk:Mike Halterman|(Talking is hot)]] 04:26, 31 October 2005 (UTC)
=====ACE calcs=====
I have updated the info on [[2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Beta|Beta]] and the [[2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy_.28ACE.29_Ranking|ACE]] for 2100UTC. I would not mind someone double-checking the ACE. Based on the advisory figure of 50kt winds, I added 0.25 * 10<sup>4</sup> kt<sup>2</sup> to the previous ACE of 0.325. --[[User:Ems57fcva|EMS]] | [[User_talk:ems57fcva|Talk]] 22:17, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:Intensity as of the 11 PM EDT advisory was 55 knots...time to update ACE again.--L.E./[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 02:53, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
::Maximum sustained winds as of the 10 AM EST Oct 30 2005 advisory were 90 Mph... 80 knots? But the landfall intensity was 90 knots according to the Discussion of the same time. I used the advisory numbers for the ACE calcs, double check me please. Is this the right number to use? [[User:Siebren|Siebren]] 15:37, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
{| border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="3"
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
!Adv.
!Date
!Time
!Maximum Sustained Winds (kt)
!ACE (10<sup>4</sup> kt<sup>2</sup>)
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.002.shtml? 2]||27 Oct||align="right"|5 am EDT||align="center"|35||align="center"|0.1225
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.003.shtml? 3]|| ||align="right"|11 am EDT||align="center"|45||align="center"|0.2025
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.004.shtml? 4]|| ||align="right"|5 pm EDT||align="center"|50||align="center"|0.25
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.005.shtml? 5]|| ||align="right"|11 pm EDT||align="center"|55||align="center"|0.3025
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.006.shtml? 6]||28 Oct||align="right"|5 am EDT||align="center"|55||align="center"|0.3025
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.007.shtml? 7]|| ||align="right"|11 am EDT||align="center"|55||align="center"|0.3025
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.008.shtml? 8]|| ||align="right"|5 pm EDT||align="center"|55||align="center"|0.3025
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.009.shtml? 9]|| ||align="right"|11 pm EDT||align="center"|60||align="center"|0.36
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.010.shtml? 10]||29 Oct||align="right"|5 am EDT||align="center"|70||align="center"|0.49
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.011.shtml? 11]|| ||align="right"|11 am EDT||align="center"|75||align="center"|0.5625
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.012.shtml? 12]|| ||align="right"|5 pm EDT||align="center"|80||align="center"|0.64
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.013.shtml? 13]|| ||align="right"|11 pm EDT||align="center"|90||align="center"|0.81
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.014.shtml? 14]||30 Oct||align="right"|4 am EST||align="center"|100||align="center"|1.00
|- style="background-color: #e0e0e0;"
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.015.shtml? 15]|| ||align="right"|10 am EST||align="center"|80||align="center"|0.64
|-
|[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al262005.discus.016.shtml? 16]|| ||align="right"|4 pm EST||align="center"|55||align="center"|0.3025
|-
|'''Total'''||align="right"| ||align="center"| || ||align="center"|'''6.59'''
|}
-- [[User:NSLE|<font color="#5CAFF3">NS</font color><font color="#ff2020">LE</font color>]] <sub>([[User_talk:NSLE|<font color="orange">Commu</font color><font color="darkred">nicate!</font color>]])</sub> <sup><[[Special:Contributions/NSLE|<font color="green">Contribs</font color>]]></sup> 03:31, 28 October 2005 (UTC) <small>updated -- [[User:NSLE|<font color="#5CAFF3">NS</font color><font color="#ff2020">LE</font color>]] <sub>([[User_talk:NSLE|<font color="orange">Commu</font color><font color="darkred">nicate!</font color>]])</sub> <sup><[[Special:Contributions/NSLE|<font color="green">Contribs</font color>]]></sup> 06:21, 30 October 2005 (UTC) to note end of [[DST]]
: Please note that the Advisory links won't work until the ''next'' advisory is issued. [[User:Tompw|Tompw]] 08:53, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
::With the Discussion 15 numbers (not yet reflected in the article) Beta has passed Franklin to enter the season's Top Ten.--Louis E./le@put.com/[[User:12.144.5.2|12.144.5.2]] 15:45, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
As of the 10 pm 10/30 advisory, Beta has become a tropical depression dissipating inland. The NHC says that if it regenerates over the Pacific, "it will be given a new name and/or number". On that basis, I would say that the book is closed on Beta and it's ACE. --[[User:Ems57fcva|EMS]] | [[User_talk:ems57fcva|Talk]] 04:25, 31 October 2005 (UTC)
=====Could Beta cross into Pacific?=====
NHC said that GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN models take Beta into Pacific? Given the more westward movement recently, I guess Beta may be able to do so.
If Beta succeed, it will be the first one to do so since Cesar/Douglas in 1996.
[[User:Momoko|Momoko]] 02:43, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
Even if it does cross over, it wouldn't survive. There's a huge bank of dry air just beyond the Central American [[isthmus]]. -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' - <small>''[[Special:Contributions/E. Brown|archive]]''</small> 04:22, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
:From NHC Beta discussion 15:
HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLAND PASSAGE...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.
:[[User:Siebren|Siebren]] 15:24, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
::From HNC Discussion 17, which notes that Beta has become a dissapating tropical depression:
SHOULD THE SYSTEM REGENERATE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC..
IT WOULD BE ASSIGNED A NEW NUMBER AND/OR NAME
:: --[[User:Ems57fcva|EMS]] | [[User_talk:ems57fcva|Talk]] 04:21, 31 October 2005 (UTC)
====91L.INVEST====
The area east of the islands is now an invest. Floater 2 is now on it. We'll see if it pulls an Alpha. Looks like there is a race for the next storm, but I think development will be slower than 90L. [[User:Hurricanehink|Hurricanehink]] 14:24, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
:I'd have to say that this thing won't do much...but I could be wrong. [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:55, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
::The NHC says it's entering a more favorable environment, but it appears to have lost a lot of convection. -- [[User: E. Brown|Hurricane Eric]] - ''[[User talk: E. Brown|my dropsonde]]'' 13:47, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
:::In other words, it is coming into that area dying, so it has to start from scratch...can't see this blob even coming close to becoming Gamma... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 15:33, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
10.30pm TWO:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED. IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES
FOR DEVELOPMENT HAVE ALSO DISMINISHED.
Well, that's it then. -- [[User:NSLE|<font color="#5CAFF3">NS</font color><font color="#ff2020">LE</font color>]] <sub>([[User_talk:NSLE|<font color="orange">Commu</font color><font color="darkred">nicate!</font color>]])</sub> <sup><[[Special:Contributions/NSLE|<font color="green">Contribs</font color>]]></sup> 02:20, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
I guess we won't see another fraternity house open from that blob... [[User:CrazyC83|CrazyC83]] 02:38, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
5:00 am discussion seems to indicate a potential 'gamma' forming
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION
- TimL
Uh, not ''exactly''....
5.30am TWO:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING. '''HOWEVER... ALL OR'''
'''A PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY TROPICAL'''
'''STORM BETA... WHICH WILL DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TROPICAL'''
'''CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.'''
Emphasis mine. -- [[User:NSLE|<font color="#5CAFF3">NS</font color><font color="#ff2020">LE</font color>]] <sub>([[User_talk:NSLE|<font color="orange">Commu</font color><font color="darkred">nicate!</font color>]])</sub> <sup><[[Special:Contributions/NSLE|<font color="green">Contribs</font color>]]></sup> 09:36, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
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