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{{Use American English|date=January 2025}}

'''Statistical Probabilities''' is a season six episode of [[Star Trek: Deep Space Nine]].

{{Use mdy dates|date=January 2014}}

{{Infobox television episode

| series = [[Category:Star Trek: Deep Space Nine episodes]]

| image =

| caption =

| season = 6

| episode = 9

| production = 533

| airdate = {{Start date|1997|11|24}}

| teleplay = [[René Echevarria]]

| story = Pam Pietroforte

| photographer = Jonathan West

| director = [[Anson Williams]]

| music = [[David Bell (composer)|David Bell]]

| guests =

* [[Jeffrey Combs]] as [[Weyoun]]

* Tim Ransom as Jack

* [[Jeannetta Arnette]] as Dr. Loews

* [[Hilary Shepard Turner|Hilary Shepard]] as Lauren

* [[Michael Keenan (actor)|Michael Keenan]] as Patrick

* [[Casey Biggs]] as [[Damar (Star Trek)|Damar]]

* [[Faith Salie]] as Sarina Douglas

| prev = [[Resurrection (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine)|Resurrection]]

| next = [[The Magnificent Ferengi]]

|episode_list = List of Star Trek: Deep Space Nine episodes

| season_article = Star Trek: Deep Space Nine season 6

}}

"'''Statistical Probabilities'''" is the 133rd episode of the [[first-run syndication|syndicated]] American [[science fiction on television|science fiction television]] series ''[[Star Trek: Deep Space Nine]]'', the ninth episode of the [[Star Trek: Deep Space Nine season 6|sixth season]].

{{spoiler}}

Set in the 24th century, the series follows the adventures on [[Deep Space Nine (space station)|''Deep Space Nine'']], a space station located near a stable [[wormhole]] between the [[Galactic quadrant (Star Trek)|Alpha and Gamma quadrants]] of the Milky Way Galaxy. This episode is part of the [[Dominion War]] storyline, in which the [[United Federation of Planets]] is at war with the [[Dominion (Star Trek)|Dominion]], an aggressive empire from the Gamma Quadrant, which has already absorbed the nearby planet of [[Cardassia]].

With [[Federation]]/[[Dominion]] peace negotiations in the background, the revelation in [[Dr. Bashir I Presume? (DS9 episode)|Dr. Bashir I Presume?]] that [[Julian Bashir|Bashir]] is a [[Augment (Star Trek)|genetically augmented human]] allows him to be open about his wish to help less fortunate augments with their problems. He is introduced to four augments who, due to unintended side effects, are unable to function in society. Parents who allow their children to be genetically manipulated attempt to keep the procedure secret: it's illegal, and augmented human beings are prohibited from joining most professions and may not join [[Starfleet]]. However, the problems developed by these four augments forced their parents to seek medical help for them. The four have been institutionalized for most of their lives, and as such are very close to each other, but mistrust outsiders, even their own doctor, Dr. Loews ([[Jeanna Arnette]]). The four augments are:

In this episode, the genetically engineered Dr. [[Julian Bashir]] works with a group of genetically engineered, socially maladjusted [[Savant syndrome|savants]] to try to help them become productive members of society. Meanwhile, ''Deep Space Nine'' hosts peace negotiations with the Dominion.

Jack ([[Tim Ransom]]) - Jack is a male in his thirties, perhaps a little older than Bashir. His mental and physical abilities are both near the top of the [[Bell Curve]]. However, his great abilities are matched by extreme anxiety, which often manifests itself as [[paranoia]], assertiveness and physical agression. He generally feels superior to other people, and as a result has little [[empathy]] for the suffering he causes. Because of his proactive nature, he generally feels himself to be the leader of his group of compatriots.

This episode guest stars [[Jeannetta Arnette]] as Dr. Loews, Tim Ransom as Jack, [[Hilary Shepard Turner|Hilary Shepard]] as Lauren, [[Michael Keenan (actor)|Michael Keenan]] as Patrick and [[Faith Salie]] as Sarina Douglas, with [[Casey Biggs]] and [[Jeffrey Combs]] reprising their recurring roles as Cardassian leader [[Damar (Star Trek)|Damar]] and Dominion representative [[Weyoun]].

Lauren ([[Hilary Sheppard]]) - Lauren is an attractive female, also in her early thirties. She is extremely intellectually developed and quite engaging. However, she is prone to sexual misbehavior, which often manifests itself as her being sure almost all men madly in love with her.

==Background==

Patrick ([[Michael Keenan (actor)|Michael Keenan]]) - Patrick is a man in his fifties with obvious mental abilities, although he is just as obviously not athletic. However, despite his age and intellect, he has the emotional responses of a child. When something annoys him (such as a minor noise amplified by his genetically improved hearing) he becomes petulant. He is prone to emotional outbursts. When threatened with punishment, he suffers from extreme anxiety.

In the ''Star Trek'' science fiction universe, after genetically engineered "supermen" tried to take over Earth, it remains illegal for parents to genetically engineer their children. The episode "[[Doctor Bashir, I Presume]]" in ''Deep Space Nine'''s fifth season revealed that the parents of Dr. Bashir, chief medical officer on ''Deep Space Nine'', had him illegally genetically re-engineered as a child to improve his mental and physical abilities. When Bashir's secret was uncovered, his parents cut a deal for him to be allowed to retain his position as a physician and in [[Starfleet]] - both career paths from which genetically augmented individuals are normally banned.

==Plot==

Sarina Douglas ([[Faith Salie]]) - Sarina is a woman in her late twenties who is incapable of human communication, either speaking or writing, although she can understand both. She is both frustrated and resigned to the fact that she cannot communicate what she knows. She could be mistaken for someone with [[autism]], despite her superior abilities.

[[Julian Bashir|Dr. Bashir]] has volunteered to help treat four genetically augmented individuals who, due to unintended neurological side effects of their augmentation, are unable to function in society: hyperactive, paranoid Jack; hypersexual Lauren; childlike Patrick; and silent Sarina. Bashir realizes that their primary problem is boredom: as Jack points out, they are forbidden from pursuing any profession where they could put their enhanced brain power to work.

BashirMeanwhile, realizes[[Damar that(Star hisTrek)|Damar]], patients'the primarynew problemleader isof boredom.[[Cardassia]], proposes Aspeace Jacktalks haswith pointedthe out,Federation. theyWatching arehis forbiddenspeech, fromthe pursuingaugments anymake professionseveral whereaccurate theyguesses couldabout putDamar theirand brainhow powerhe came to workpower. As therapy, Bashir convinces [[Benjamin Sisko|Captain Sisko]] to allow the augments to review the peace negotiations to see if they can determine the Dominion's agenda.

TheBased projecton workssubtle clues beyondin BashirDamar and Sisko's wildest dreams. Based on subtle [[grammar|grammaticalWeyoun]]'s clues (the augments learn the Dominion language overnight)speech and behavioral idiosyncraciesbehavior, the Federationaugments learnsdeduce that the Dominion wants to draw the border to secure a planet that has many of the raw materials needed to make ketracel white, the drug used to control the Dominion's [[Ketracel WhiteJem'Hadar]]. soldiers. Knowing this gives the Federation negotiators a huge advantage in the talks.

[[Starfleet]] provides the augments with further intelligence in order to develop a statistical model to predict the future. The augments soon come to the conclusion that the Federation is doomed to lose the war and suffer casualties in the hundreds of billions. As a result, they recommend surrender, which will save those lives and still leave the Federation in a position to rise up against the Dominion in the future. Bashir is convinced the augments are right and argues the case before Sisko. However, Sisko and Starfleet reject the suggestion out of hand.

As such, the Federation agrees to provide the augments with further intelligence information. As a result, the augments develop a statistical historical model to predict the future (something most likely inspired by [[Isaac Asimov]]'s [[psychohistory (fictional)|psychohistory]] in [[The Foundation Series]].

However, theThe augments soon comedecide to theleak conclusionStarfleet's thatstrategic theplans Federationto isthe doomedDominion, hoping to loseshorten the war and sufferminimize the casualties. inWhen theBashir tensobjects ofto billions.this treasonous Asplan, aJack, resultLauren, theyand recommendPatrick surrender,overpower whichhim. willBound savehand thoseand livesfoot, and stillleft leavealone thewith FederationSarina, inBashir aconvinces positionher tothat riseher upfellow againstaugments' theactions Dominionwill result in thetheir futureimprisonment and separation. Sarina frees Bashir is convincedin the augmentsnick areof righttime, and pleadsBashir intercepts the caseaugments beforeon Captaintheir Sisko.way to However,the Siskomeeting and Starfleet rejectwith the suggestionDominion out of handnegotiators.

Bashir realizes that the augments believed they couldn't possibly be wrong because of their superior intellect; but despite the presumed infallibility of their statistical model, the actions of one person (Sarina) completely altered history. The augments return to their institution, promising to continue work on a plan for defeating the Dominion.

Faced with what they feel is the equivalent of a decision to commit suicide, the augments decide to try to leak Star Fleet's strategic plans to the Dominion negotiators on board DS9, hoping to shorten the war and minimize the casualties. Bashir rightly sees this as foolhardy, but Jack, Lauren and Patrick overpower him. Bound hand & foot, and left alone with Sarina, Bashir convinces Sarina that her fellow augment's actions will result in their imprisonment and separation. Bashir plays on the fact that he has determined that Sarina is in love with Jack (something the other augments have failed to realize). Sarina frees Bashir in the nick of time, and alerts [[Odo]], who intercepts the augments on their way to the meeting with the Dominion negotiators.

== Production ==

Later, Bashir realizes that [[hubris]] primarily drove their belief that the Federation would lose. Rather than believe they might be wrong about the course of the war, they decided they couldn't possibly be wrong because of their superior intellect. Bashir returns to his duties, and the augments return to their institution.

Writer Bradley Thompson explained that the idea of predicting the future using advanced statistical models was based on a concept known as "[[Psychohistory (fictional)|psychohistory]]" from the ''[[Foundation (book series)|Foundation]]'' novels by [[Isaac Asimov]].<ref name="Erdmann 2000 page 513">Erdmann (2000) page 513</ref><ref name="krad" />

The episode was directed by [[Anson Williams]], best known for his role as Potsie from ''[[Happy Days]]''.<ref name="newsounds" /><!-- Also directed DS9 "It's Only a Paper Moon", and 4 Voyager episodes --> He previously directed the ''Star Trek: Voyager'' episode "[[Real Life (Star Trek: Voyager)|Real Life]]".<ref name="Williams">{{cite web |date=August 1, 2017 |title=Catching Up with DS9 and Voyager Director, Anson Williams |url=https://www.startrek.com/article/catching-up-with-ds9-and-voyager-director-anson-williams |website=StarTrek.com |quote=Let's look back at some of your episodes. The first one was "Real Life," for Voyager… }}</ref>

The augments would return in a later episode - [[Chrysalis (DS9 episode)|Chrysalis]].

Sarina, played by [[Faith Salie]], has no spoken lines in this episode; some lines had been scripted for her, but they were cut from the episode for time.<ref name="Croatto">{{cite web |date=October 28, 2021 |author=Pete Croatto |title=Faith Salie Shares Her Deep Space Nine Memories |url=https://www.startrek.com/news/faith-salie-shares-her-deep-space-nine-memories |website=StarTrek.com |quote=This is where my lines are and then they cut them! Whaaattt! |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211028142303/https://www.startrek.com/news/faith-salie-shares-her-deep-space-nine-memories |archive-date=2021-10-28 |access-date=October 28, 2021 }}</ref><ref name="newsounds">{{Cite web |title=Hitting The High Notes Aboard 'Star Trek: Deep Space Nine' {{!}} Soundcheck {{!}} New Sounds |url=https://www.newsounds.org/story/241634-hitting-high-notes/ |website=NewSounds.org |access-date=2021-03-13}}</ref> She and the other actors playing the four augments would go on to reprise their characters in the later episode "[[Chrysalis (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine)|Chrysalis]]", but Salie would have to re-audition for the role.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2014-12-09 |last=DeCandido |first=Keith R. A. |author-link=Keith R. A. DeCandido |title=Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Rewatch: "Chrysalis" |url=https://www.tor.com/2014/12/09/star-trek-deep-space-nine-rewatch-qchrysalisq/ |website=[[Tor.com]] |access-date=2021-03-13 }}</ref>

== Episode within Story Arc ==

[[Hilary Shepard Turner]] previously appeared as a Benzite in the Season 5 episode "[[The Ship (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine)|The Ship]]".<ref name="Erdmann 2000 page 513"/>

The augments were obviously wrong about the course of the war. Although they correctly predicted the alliance with the [[Romulans]], and despite the fact they knew about the intervention by the [[Bajoran Prophets|Prophets]], they failed to predict either the [[Breen]] alliance in favour of the Dominion, the fact that the [[Cardassians]] would stage an uprising against the Dominion, and that [[Section 31]] would use a [[biological weapon]] against the [[Founders (Star Trek)|Founders]].

==Reception==

{{DS9 navigation|Resurrection|The Magnificent Ferengi}}

Keith DeCandido of ''[[Tor.com]]'' rated the episode seven out of ten.<ref name="krad">{{cite web |date=9 September 2014 |last=DeCandido |first=Keith R. A. |author1-link=Keith R. A. DeCandido |title=Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Rewatch: "Statistical Probabilities" |url=https://www.tor.com/2014/09/09/star-trek-deep-space-nine-rewatch-statistical-probabilities/ |website=[[Tor.com]] }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |date=2013 |author1=Zack Handlen |title=Star Trek: Deep Space Nine: "Statistical Probabilities"/"The Magnificent Ferengi" |url=https://www.avclub.com/star-trek-deep-space-nine-statistical-probabilities-1798178284 |website=[[The A.V. Club]] }}</ref>

In 2011, this episode was noted by ''[[Forbes]]'' as one of the top ten episodes of the franchise that explores the implications of advanced technology, in the case genetic manipulation.<ref name="Knapp"/> They praised the episode for exploring the tragic implications for technological enhancement gone wrong.<ref name="Knapp"/> ''Forbes'' also suggested the episode "[[The Masterpiece Society]]" for its exploration of a genetically engineered society encountered by the ''Enterprise-D''. The article notes that one reason the Federation banned genetic augmentation was because of the [[Eugenics Wars]], in the ''Star Trek'' timeline.<ref name="Knapp"/> They tied the exploration of Bashir's character, the ''Star Trek'' story and the other augmented characters under a concept that, despite the promises of a technology's benefit, things can go wrong.<ref name="Knapp">{{Cite web |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2011/04/08/the-10-best-singularity-themed-star-trek-episodes/ |title=The 10 Best Singularity Themed Star Trek Episodes |last=Knapp |first=Alex |website=Forbes |access-date=2019-03-27 }}</ref>

[[Category:Star Trek: Deep Space Nine episodes]]

==References==

{{Reflist}}

==External links==

{{wikiquote|Star Trek: Deep Space Nine#Statistical Probabilities .5B6.9.5D|Statistical Probabilities}}

* {{IMDb episode}}

* {{Memory Alpha}}

* {{StarTrek.com|statistical-probabilities|"Statistical Probabilities"}}

{{Star Trek: Deep Space Nine episodes|6}}

[[Category:Star Trek: Deep Space Nine season 6 episodes]]

[[Category:1997 American television episodes]]

[[Category:Television episodes about eugenics]]

[[Category:Television episodes written by René Echevarria]]