Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Difference between revisions

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{{short description|Index intended to forecast economic activity}}

'''The Conference Board Leading Economic Index''' is an [[United States|American]] economic [[leading indicator]] intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by [[The Conference Board]], a [[non-governmental organization]], which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key [[Variable (mathematics)|variables]]. These variables have historically turned downward before a [[recession]] and upward before an [[Economic expansion|expansion]]. The singleper indexcent valuechange composedyear fromover theseyear tenof variablesthe hasLeading generallyEconomic provedIndex capableis a lagging indicator of predictingthe recessionsmarket overdirections.<ref>[https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-closer-look-at-the-conference-board-leading-economic-index A Closer Look at the pastConference 50Board years.{{CitationLeading Economic Index needed|date=April 2010}}Andrew Kitchings, CAIA, ERP, FRM | Commonwealth Financial Network® | Aug 22, 2018]</ref>

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report '''What Predicts U.S. Recessions?''' uses each component of the '''Conference Board's Leading Economic Index'''. That report said that the indicators signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle, and the aggregate index has been shown to drop ahead of recessions and rise before expansions.<ref>[https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr691.pdf What Predicts U.S. Recessions? Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Staff Reports | What Predicts U.S. Recessions? | Weiling Liu and Emanuel Moench | Staff Report No. 691 | September 2014]</ref>

* The Labor Department’s monthly report on the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek hours from the Employment Situation report

* The Labor Department’s weekly report on first-time claims for state unemployment insurance

* The Census Bureau’s monthly consumer goods and materials report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

* The Census Bureau’s monthly non-defense capital goods report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

* The Census Bureau’s monthly report on building permits from the Housing Starts and Building Permits report

* The difference (spread) between the 10-year Treasury notes interest rate and the Federal Funds interest rate

* The Federal Reserve's inflation-adjusted measure of the M2 money supply

* The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly ISM Index of Manufacturing including production, employment, prices, supplier deliveries, imports, inventories, new orders, new export orders and order backlogs.

* The S&P 500

* The University of Michigan’s monthly Consumer Sentiment Index's consumer expectations

Revisions to '''The Conference Board Leading Economic Index''' effective with the January 26, 2012 release began using the new '''Leading Credit Index''' ... etc.<ref>[https://www.conference-board.org/data/bci/index.cfm?id=2154 Calculating the Composite Indexes]</ref>

* The Labor[[United Department’sStates Department of Labor]]’s monthly report on the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek hours from the Employment Situation report

* The Labor[[United Department’sStates Department of Labor]]’s weekly report on first-time claims for state unemployment insurance

* The [[United States Census Bureau’sBureau]]’s monthly consumer goods and materials report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

* The [[United States Census Bureau’sBureau]]’s monthly non-defense capital goods report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

* The [[United States Census Bureau’sBureau]]’s monthly report on building permits from the Housing Starts and Building Permits report

* The difference (spread) between the interest rates of 10-year Treasury[[United notesStates interestTreasury ratenote]]s and the Federal[[federal Funds interestfunds rate]]

* The Conference Board's Leading Credit Index, itself a composite index of six financial indicators, e.g. yield spreads and investor sentiment<ref>{{cite web |title=Using a Leading Credit Index to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle |url=https://www.conference-board.org/pdfdownload.cfm?masterProductID=5922 |website=www.conference-board.org |access-date=17 August 2023 |date=December 2011}}</ref>

* The [[Institute for Supply Management’sManagement]]’s monthly ISM Index of Manufacturing including production, employment, prices,: supplier deliveries, imports, production, inventories, new orders, new export orders and, order backlogs, prices and employment.

* The [[S&P 500]]

* The [[University of Michigan’s monthlyMichigan Consumer Sentiment Index]]'s consumer expectations

==See also==

* [[Economic indicator]]

== References ==

{{reflist|refs=

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== External links ==

* [http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm The Conference Board's Global Business Cycle Indicators]

* [http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MEI_CLI OECD leading indicator statistics]

* [httphttps://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/business/economy/25charts.html?ref=todayspaper Floyd Norris - New York Times Piece]

[[Category:Macroeconomic forecasting]]

[[Category:IndexMacroeconomic numbersindicators]]

[[Category:Macroeconomics]]

[[Category:Economic indicators]]

{{macroeconomics-stub}}

[[pl:Indeks wskaźników wyprzedzających koniunkturę]]