Betting strategy: Difference between revisions

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{{short description|Strategy for wagering}}

'''Betting strategies''' or '''betting systems''' are approaches to [[gambling]] intended to increase the odds of winning.

A '''betting strategy''' (also known as '''betting system''') is a structured approach to [[gambling]], in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the [[house edge]] into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a [[perpetual motion]] machine.<ref name=":0" /> Betting systems are often predicated on [[statistical analysis]].

Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with random, [[Independence_(probability_theory)|independent trials]], although they can make for higher odds of short-term winning at the cost of increased risk, and are an enjoyable gambling experience for some people. Strategies which take into account the changing odds that exist in some games (e.g. [[card counting]] and [[handicapping]]), can alter long-term results.<ref name=":0">{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=VWriBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA53|title=The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Revised Edition|last=Epstein|first=Richard A.|date=2014-06-28|publisher=Gulf Professional Publishing|isbn=9780080571843|pages=53|language=en|author-link=Richard Arnold Epstein}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/|title=The Truth about Betting Systems - Wizard of Odds|last=Shackleford|first=Michael|author-link=Michael Shackleford|website=wizardofodds.com|language=en-us|access-date=2017-10-09}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=XeaorGgYAXsC&pg=PA226|title=Merriam-Webster's Guide to Everyday Math: A Home and Business Reference|last=Burrell|first=Brian|date=1998|publisher=Merriam-Webster|isbn=9780877796213|pages=226|language=en}}</ref><ref>[https://blockchainbetting.io/ Blockchain betting Dapps]</ref>

== Independent Events ==

The following betting strategies have been recorded as being applied to [[game]]s which operate on [[independent event]]s. For such games, the odds of a particular outcome are identical for every bet played. No such strategy can beat the house edge (if any) in the long run, and all of them trade off many small wins for a big loss or vice versa.

This is formally stated by game theorist [[Richard Arnold Epstein]] in ''The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic'' as:

* [[Martingale (roulette system)|Martingale]] - doubling bet after each loss until a win is achieved (or fails when the amount of the bet becomes excessive).

* [[Split Martingale]]; -

* [[Anti-Martingale]];

* [[d'Alembert]];

* [[Contra d'Alembert]];

* [[Regression]];

* [[Paroli of Three]];

* [[Sleeping Cheval]];

{{Quote|''Theorem 1:'' If a gambler risks a finite capital over many plays in a game with constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then any and all betting systems lead ultimately to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered.<ref name=":0" />}}

==Examples==

Common betting systems include:

* [[Card game]]s – [[Card counting]]

* [[Sport]]s – [[Handicapping]]

* [[Martingale (betting system)|Martingale]]

* [[Kelly criterion]]

* [[Split Martingalemartingale]]; -

* [[Anti-Martingalemartingale]];

* [[d'Alembert system]];

* [[Oscar's grind]]

===Horse racing===

{{game-stub}}

Some [[horse racing]] betting systems can be based on pure statistical analysis of the odds, while others also analyze physical factors (e.g. the horses' form, jockey form and lane draw). Common forms of betting systems for horse racing are:

* [[Hedge (finance)|hedging]] - betting on multiple outcomes in a race

* [[Arbitrage betting|arbitrage]] - lay the horse a low price and back it at a high price.

==See also==

[[Category:Wagering]]

*[[Gambler's fallacy]]

[[Category:Game theory]]

*[[fr:martingaleHouse edge]]

*[[Mathematics of bookmaking]]

*[[Parimutuel betting]]

==References==

{{reflist}}

{{Gambling}}

[[Category:Betting systems| ]]

[[Category:WageringStrategy]]