Morphological analysis (problem-solving): Difference between revisions

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{{Short description|Exploration of possible solutions}}

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'''Morphological analysis''' or '''general morphological analysis''' is a method developed by [[Fritz Zwicky]] (1967, 1969) for exploring all the possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by Swiss&nbsp;astronomer [[Fritz Zwicky]].<ref name = "GMA">Ritchey, T. (1998). [http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html General Morphological Analysis: A general method for non-quantified modeling] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100324053008/http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html |date=2010-03-24 }}.</ref> General morphology has found use in fields including [[engineering design]], [[Technology forecasting|technological forecasting]], [[organizational development]] and policy analysis.<ref>Álvarez, A. & Ritchey, T. (2015). [http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf "Applications of General Morphological Analysis: From Engineering Design to Policy Analysis", Acta Morphologica Generalis, Vol.4 No.1.] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160513133747/http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf|date=2016-05-13}}</ref>

==Overview==

General morphology was developed by [[Fritz Zwicky]], the Bulgarian-born, Swiss-national [[astrophysicist]] based at the [[California Institute of Technology]]. Among others, Zwicky applied morphological analysis (MA) to astronomical studies and the development of jet and [[Spacecraft propulsion|rocket propulsion]] systems. As a problem-structuring and [[Problem solving|problem-solving]] technique, MAmorphological analysis was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modelingmodelling and simulation do not function well, or at all. Zwicky developed this approach to address seemingly non-reducible complexity: using the technique of cross-consistency assessment (CCA) (Ritchey, 1998), the system allows for reduction by identifying the possible solutions that actually exist, eliminating the illogical solution combinations in a grid box rather than reducing the number of variables involved. A detailed introduction to morphological modeling is given in Ritchey (2002, 2006). A summary of some 80 published articles exemplifying the various applications of general morphology, including engineering design, technological forecasting, organizational development and policy analysis, is available in Álvarez & Ritchey (2015).

Zwicky developed this approach to address seemingly non-reducible complexity: using the technique of [[cross-consistency assessment]] (CCA),<ref name="GMA" /> the system allows for reduction by identifying the possible solutions that actually exist, eliminating the illogical solution combinations in a grid box (sometimes called a '''<span class="anchor" id="Morphological box">morphological box</span>''') rather than reducing the number of variables involved.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Ritchey|first=T|date=July 2006|title=Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis|journal=Journal of the Operational Research Society|volume=57|issue=7|pages=792–801|doi=10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602177|s2cid=19792496|issn=0160-5682}}</ref>

===Morphological analysis of real-world problems===

[[File:Morphological box (bread example).png|alt=A morphological box for bread with six categories arranged in rows: Flour, Leavening, Shape, Crust, Additions, and Baking. Each row contains 4 options with selected items highlighted in green or blue boxes. Selected combinations appear to create two bread types shown at the bottom: For Olive Ciabatta (shown with green highlights): White flour, Yeast leavening, Flat shape, Chewy crust, Olives as additions, and Oven baking method. For Baguette (shown with blue highlights): White flour, Yeast leavening, Loaf shape, Crispy crust, Plain (no additions), and Steam baking method.|thumb|An example morphological box illustrating the attributes of different types of bread]]

Consider a complex, real-world problem where there are many governing factors, and most of them cannot be expressed as numerical time series data, as one would like to have for building mathematical models.

==Decomposition versus morphological analysis==

The conventional approach here would be to break the system down into parts, isolate the vital parts (dropping the 'trivial' components) for their contributions to the output and solve the simplified system for creating desired models or scenarios. The disadvantage of this method is that real-world scenarios do not behave rationally: more often than not, a simplified model will break down when the contribution of the 'trivial' components becomes significant. Also, importantly, the behavior of many components will be governed by the states of, and their relations with, other components – ones that may be seen to be minor before the analysis.

Problems that involve many governing factors, where most of them cannot be expressed numerically can be well suited for morphological analysis.

The conventional approach is to break a complex system into parts, isolate the parts (dropping the 'trivial' elements) whose contributions are critical to the output and solve the simplified system for desired scenarios. The disadvantage of this method is that many real-world phenomena do not have obviously trivial elements and cannot be simplified.

Morphological analysis, on the other hand, does not drop any of the components from the system itself, but works backwards from the output towards the system internals.<ref>Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems Using Morphological Analysis (Ritchey 2003-06)[http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/it-webart.pdf]</ref> Again, the interactions and relations get to play their parts in MA and their effects are accounted for in the analysis.

Morphological analysis, on the other hand, does not drop any of the components from the system itself, but works backwards from the output towards the system internals without a simplification step.<ref>Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems Using Morphological Analysis (Ritchey 2003-06)[http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/it-webart.pdf] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070929124133/http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/it-webart.pdf|date=2007-09-29}}</ref> Again,The thesystem's interactions andare relations get to play their parts in MA and their effects arefully accounted for in the analysis.

== References ==

{{Reflist}}

== FurtherReferences readingin fiction ==

[[Robert A. Heinlein]] has his characters use a "Zwicky box" in ''[[Time Enough for Love]]'', to figure out what's available to break the ennui of his 2000-year-old character.

* Ritchey, T. (1998). [http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html General Morphological Analysis: A general method for non-quantified modeling]

* Ritchey, T. (2006). "Problem Structuring using Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis". Journal of the Operational Research Society (JORS), Vol. 57, No. 7

[[David Brin]] used "Zwicky Choice Boxes" in ''[[Sundiver]]'' as a means to help solve a murder mystery.

* Ritchey, T. (2011) ''Wicked Problems/Social Messes: Decision support Modelling with Morphological Analysis''. Berlin: Springer

* Zwicky, F. (1969). ''Discovery, Invention, Research - Through the Morphological Approach''. Toronto: The Macmillan Company

* Zwicky, F. & Wilson A. (eds.) (1967). ''New Methods of Thought and Procedure: Contributions to the Symposium on Methodologies''. Berlin: Springer

* Jones, J.C. (1981). ''Design Methods''. Wiley

* Ayres, R.U. (1969). ''Technological Forecasting and Long-Time Planning''. McGraw-Hill

* Duczynski, G.A. (2016). [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328716300970 "Morphological analysis as an aid to organisational design and transformation"]. Futures, In Press, August 2016

* Duczynski, G.A. Jablonski, J. Huddleston, S. (2015). [https://globalecco.org/ctx-vol.-5-no.-1-february-2015;jsessionid=963C6228BE8D478E0605E2CFEBA524CF ''Sustainability of the Afghan Security Forces: A Wicked Problem]''. Counter Terrorism Exchange, Vol 5, No 1

* Duczynski, G.A. (2000). ''A Practitioner's Experience of Using Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures''. Futures Research Quarterly, Vol 16, No 3

* Duczynski, G.A. (2004). ''Systems Approaches to Economic Development for Indigenous People: A Case Study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia''. Futures, 36

* Levin, Mark Sh. (2015). ''Modular systems design and evaluation''. Springer.

* Álvarez, A. & Ritchey, T. (2015). [http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf "Applications of General Morphological Analysis: From Engineering Design to Policy Analysis", Acta Morphologica Generalis, Vol.4 No.1.]

* Duczynski, G.A. (2017). Solving Traffic Congestion: Targeting Technological and Social Interdependencies through General Morphological Analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, United Kingdom. Vol 126

== See also ==

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* [[Influence diagrams]]

* [[Market research]]

* [[Morphological box]]

* [[Portal:Thinking]]

* [[Scenario analysis]]

* [[Scenario planning]]

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* [[Stakeholder analysis]]

* [[Strategic planning]]

* [[Wicked problem]]

* [[TRIZ]]

* [[Wicked problem]]

{{div col end}}

== References ==

{{DEFAULTSORT:Morphological Analysis (Problem-Solving)}}

{{Reflist}}

[[Category:Creativity]]

[[Category:Morphology|analysis problem-solving]]

== Further reading ==

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=G.A.|journal=Futures |date=2016|volume=86 |pages=36–43 |doi=10.1016/j.futures.2016.08.001 |title=Morphological analysis as an aid to organisational design and transformation|url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328716300970|url-access=subscription}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=Guy|date=October 2004|title=Systems approaches to economic development for indigenous people: a case study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia|journal=Futures|volume=36|issue=8|pages=869–888|doi=10.1016/j.futures.2004.01.001|issn=0016-3287}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=Guy|date=January 2018|title=Investigating traffic congestion: Targeting technological and social interdependencies through general morphological analysis|journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change|volume=126|pages=161–167|doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.019|issn=0040-1625}}

*{{cite journal|url=https://www.systemdynamics.org/assets/conferences/2000/PDFs/ducz124p.pdf |last=Duczynski, |first=G.A. (|year=2000). ''|title=A Practitioner's Experience of Using Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures''. |journal=Futures Research Quarterly, Vol |volume=16, No|issue= 3}}

*{{Cite Duczynski, G.A. Jablonski, J. Huddleston, S. (2015). [web|url=https://globalecco.org/ctx-vol.-5-no.-1-february-2015;jsessionid=963C6228BE8D478E0605E2CFEBA524CF ''|title=Sustainability of the Afghan Security Forces: A Wicked Problem]''.|last1=Duczynski|first1=G.A.|last2=Jablonski|first2=J.|date=February 2015|website=globalecco.org|publisher=Counter Terrorism Exchange, Vol |access-date=2019-05-05|last3=Huddleston|first3=V|volume=5, No |issue=1}}

*Duczynski, Guy; dov Bachmann, Sascha; Smith, Matthew; Knight, Charles (August 2023). "Operational and Strategic Progress in Ukraine: Identifying the Condition Changes". Naval Post-Graduate School, Insights, Monterrey. available at: [https://nps.edu/web/ecco/global-ecco-insights ECCO Insights - Global ECCO - Naval Postgraduate School]

*{{Cite journal|last=Jones|first=J. C.|date=July 1981|title=Design methods and theories|journal=Design Studies|volume=2|issue=3|pages=176|doi=10.1016/0142-694x(81)90074-0|issn=0142-694X}}

*{{Citation|last=Levin|first=Mark Sh.|chapter=Modular Systems, Combinatorial Engineering Frameworks|date=2014-09-06|pages=1–10|publisher=Springer International Publishing|isbn=9783319098753|doi=10.1007/978-3-319-09876-0_1|title=Modular System Design and Evaluation|series=Decision Engineering}}

*{{Citation|last=Ritchey|first=Tom|chapter=Modelling Complex Policy Issues with Morphological Analysis|date=2011|pages=31–37|publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg|isbn=9783642196522|doi=10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9_4|title=Wicked Problems – Social Messes}}

*{{Cite journal|last=Shubik|first=M.|date=1969-12-05|title=Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning. Robert U. Ayres. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969. xviii + 238 pp., illus. $12.50|journal=Science|volume=166|issue=3910|pages=1257–1258|doi=10.1126/science.166.3910.1257|issn=0036-8075}}

*{{Citation|last=Wilson|first=Albert|chapter=Epilogue|date=1967|pages=333–338|publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg|isbn=9783642876196|doi=10.1007/978-3-642-87617-2_17|title=New Methods of Thought and Procedure}}

*{{Cite journal |first1=Fritz |last1=Zwicky |last2=Page|first2=T.|date=1969-03-21|title=Discovery, Invention, Research, through the Morphological Approach |publisher=Macmillan |___location=New York|journal=Science|volume=163|issue=3873|pages=1317–1318|doi=10.1126/science.163.3873.1317|issn=0036-8075}}

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[[Category:CreativityMorphology]]

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