Demographic transition: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 11:35, 25 February 2025

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In [[demography]], '''demographic transition''' is a phenomenon and theory in the [[Social science|social sciences]] referring to the historical shift from high [[birth rate]]s and high [[MortelityMortality rate|death rates]] to low birth rates and low death rates as societies attain more technology, education (especially of [[female education|women]]), and [[economic development]].<ref name=":2">{{Cite web|title=Models of Demographic Transition [ Biz/ed Virtual Developing Country ]|url=https://web.csulb.edu/~gossette/classes/g460/DemTrans4.html|access-date=2021-06-16|website=web.csulb.edu}}</ref> The demographic transition has occurred in most of the world over the past two centuries, bringing the unprecedented population growth of the [[Malthusianism|post-Malthusian period]], then reducing birth rates and population growth significantly in all regions of the world. The demographic transition strengthens economic growth process through three changes: a reduced dilution of capital and land stock, an increased investment in human capital, and an increased size of the labour force relative to the total population and changed age population distribution.<ref name="Unified Growth Theory">{{cite book|title=Unified Growth Theory|last1=Galor|first1=Oded|date=2011|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=9781400838868|___location=Princeton}}</ref> Although this shift has occurred in many [[Developed country|industrialized countries]], the theory and model are frequently imprecise when applied to individual countries due to specific social, political, and economic factors affecting particular populations.<ref name=":2" />

However, the existence of some kind of demographic transition is widely accepted because of the well-established historical [[Correlation and dependence|correlation]] linking dropping [[fertility]] to social and economic development.<ref name="Nature">{{cite journal |doi=10.1038/nature08230 |pmid=19661915 |title=Advances in development reverse fertility declines |journal=Nature |volume=460 |issue=7256 |pages=741–3 |year=2009 |last1=Myrskylä |first1=Mikko |last2=Kohler |first2=Hans-Peter |last3=Billari |first3=Francesco C. |bibcode=2009Natur.460..741M|s2cid=4381880 }}</ref> Scholars debate whether [[Industrialisation|industrialization]] and higher incomes lead to lower population or whether lower populations lead to industrialization and higher incomes. Scholars also debate to what extent various proposed and sometimes interrelated factors such as higher [[per capita]] income, lower [[Mortality rate|mortality]], old-age security, and rise of demand for [[human capital]] are involved.<ref name=":3">{{cite journal|last1=Galor|first1=Oded|title=The demographic transition: causes and consequences|journal=Cliometrica|date=17 February 2011|volume=6|issue=1|pages=1–28|doi=10.1007/s11698-011-0062-7|pmid=25089157|pmc=4116081}}</ref> Human capital gradually increased in the second stage of the industrial revolution, which coincided with the demographic transition. The increasing role of human capital in the production process led to the investment of human capital in children by families, which may be the beginning of the demographic transition.<ref name="jstor.org">{{cite journal | last1 = Galor | first1 = Oded | author-link = Oded Galor | year = 2005 | title = The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth |journal = Journal of the European Economic Association | volume = 3 | issue = 2–3| pages = 494–504 | doi=10.1162/jeea.2005.3.2-3.494| hdl = 10419/80187 | url = https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/80187/1/481895825.pdf }}</ref>