Added article-number. Removed URL that duplicated identifier. Removed parameters. Some additions/deletions were parameter name changes. | Use this bot. Report bugs. | #UCB_CommandLine
where the events <math>(B_n)</math> form a countable [[Partition of a set|partition]] of <math>\Omega</math>.
This fallacy may arise through [[selection bias]].<ref>[[{{cite journal |first=F. Thomas |last=Bruss |authorlink=F. Thomas Bruss]] |title=Der Wyatt-Earp-Effekt oder die betörende Macht kleiner Wahrscheinlichkeiten (in German),|language=de |journal=[[Spektrum der Wissenschaft]] (German Edition of Scientific American), Vol |volume=2, |pages=110–113,(|year=2007). }}</ref> For example, in the context of a medical claim, let ''S''{{sub|''C''}} be the event that a [[sequelae|sequela]] (chronic disease) ''S'' occurs as a consequence of circumstance (acute condition) ''C''. Let ''H'' be the event that an individual seeks medical help. Suppose that in most cases, ''C'' does not cause ''S'' (so that ''P''(''S''{{sub|''C''}}) is low). Suppose also that medical attention is only sought if ''S'' has occurred due to ''C''. From experience of patients, a doctor may therefore erroneously conclude that ''P''(''S''{{sub|''C''}}) is high. The actual probability observed by the doctor is ''P''(''S''{{sub|''C''}}|''H'').
