Hubbert peak theory: Difference between revisions

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When oil production first began in the early twentieth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Investment (EROI or [[EROEI]]). This ratio becomes increasingly inefficient over time: currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel used in the recovery process. The reason for this efficiency decrease is that oil becomes harder to extract as an oil field is drained. When this ratio reaches the point where it takes one barrel to recover one barrel, then oil can no longer be used as a prime energy. At that point, the energy used to extract oil would have to come from [[alternative energy]] sources.

The phrase ''"the end of cheap oil"'', describes the predicted final result. This refers to both financial and energy efficiency aspects (i.e., the price will increase due to scarcity and the increasing inefficiency of oil production). When oil production first began in the early twentieth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Investment (EROI or [[EROEI]]). This ratio becomes increasingly inefficient over time: currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel used in the recovery process. The reason for this efficiency decrease is that oil becomes harder to extract as an oil field is drained. When this ratio reaches the point where it takes one barrel to recover one barrel, then oil becomes useless as energy. At that point, all energy used to extract oil would result in a net energy loss; society ewould b more efficient and better off usingloser, thatnot remainingan energy elsewheresource.

However energy sources are not a completely fungible commodity, certain types of energy might have a higher value than others. Because of the energy density and relative safety of gasoline at room temperature and atmospheric pressure, it is uniquely suitable for transportation. Oil is also usable as a chemical feedstock, whereas sources such as wind and solar are not. Therefore, it is possible that oil would continue to be extracted and refined even after it consumes net energy to do so.

Possible exceptions would be processes that convert abundant, but less useful sources, such as coal, into more useful energy sources, such as oil.

Alternatively, since energy itself is not a fungible commodity, certain types of energy have a higher value than others. If for example an apple is ten times more valuable than an orange, than it is quite reasonable to pay ten oranges for one apple. Because of the energy density and relative safety of gasoline at room temperature and atmospheric pressure, it is uniquely suitable for transportation. The qualities of oil therefore go beyond the mere measure of its energy content and as a consequence the value of oil is substantially higher than immobile forms of energy. So long as alternative energies are available for less than the cost of extracting oil which could be used to power the drilling, pumping and refining equipment, than indeed market forces rather than ''energy returned on energy invested (EROI)'' will dictate the production of non-fungible fuels.

As would be expected by any theory that predicts future fuel [[economic shortage|shortages]], the Hubbert model has significant [[political]], [[economic]] and [[foreign policy]] ramifications.

== Critique ==