Recent [[model (abstract)|model]]s forecast that even in the unlikely event of greenhouse gases stabilising at present levels, the earth would warm by an additional 0.5-1 °C by 2100, a similar rise in temperature to that seen during the 20th century. As ocean waters expand in response to this warming, global [[sea level]]s would mount by about 10 centimetres during that time. These models do not take into account [[ice cap]] and [[glacier]] melting; aincluding betterthose estimateeffects mightwould begive doublea or1°C triple- this1.5°C valueestimated temperature increase.<ref>{{{{cite web |url= [http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050314/full/050314-13.html]. |title= Oceans extend effects of climate change |author= Deirdre Lockwood |date= 2005-05-17 |work= |publisher= nature publishing group |accessdate=2010-05-07}} </ref>
