Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Difference between revisions

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'''The Conference Board Leading Economic Index''' is an [[United States|American]] economic [[leading indicator]] intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by [[The Conference Board]], a [[non-governmental organization]], which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key [[Variable (mathematics)|variables]]. These variables have historically turned downward before a [[recession]] and upward before an [[expansion]]. The single index value composed from these ten variables has generally proved capable of predicting recessions over the past 50 years.{{Citation needed|date=April 2010}}

* The Labor Department’s monthly Employment Situation report including the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek hours

* The Labor Department’ weekly report on first-time claims for state unemployment insurance

* The Census Bureau’s monthly “Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders” including consumer goods and materials

* The Census Bureau’s monthly Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders including non-defense capital goods

* The Census Bureau’s monthly report on building permits from the Housing Starts and Building Permits report

* The difference (spread) between the 10-year Treasury notes interest rate and the Federal Funds interest rate

* The Federal Reserve's inflation-adjusted measure of the M2 money supply

* The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly ISM Index of Manufacturing including production, employment, prices, supplier deliveries, imports, inventories, new orders, new export orders and order backlogs.

* The S&P 500

* The University of Michigan’s monthly Consumer Sentiment Index's consumer expectations

==See also==