Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Difference between revisions

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'''The Conference Board Leading Economic Index''' is an [[United States|American]] economic [[leading indicator]] intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by [[The Conference Board]], a [[non-governmental organization]], which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key [[Variable (mathematics)|variables]]. These variables have historically turned downward before a [[recession]] and upward before an [[expansion]]. The single index value composed from these ten variables has generally proved capable of predicting recessions over the past 50 years.{{Citation needed|date=April 2010}}

* The Labor[[United Department’sStates Department of Labor]]’s monthly report on the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek hours from the Employment Situation report

* The Labor[[United Department’sStates Department of Labor]]’s weekly report on first-time claims for state unemployment insurance

* The [[Census Bureau’sBureau]]’s monthly consumer goods and materials report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

* The [[Census Bureau’sBureau]]’s monthly non-defense capital goods report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

* The [[Census Bureau’sBureau]]’s monthly report on building permits from the Housing Starts and Building Permits report

* The difference (spread) between the 10-year [[Treasury notes interest rate]] and the Federal[[federal Fundsfunds rate]] interest raterates

* The Federal Reserve's inflation-adjusted measure of the M2 [[money supply]]

* The [[Institute for Supply Management’sManagement]]’s monthly ISM Index of Manufacturing including production, employment, prices, supplier deliveries, imports, inventories, new orders, new export orders and order backlogs.

* The S&P 500

* The [[University of Michigan’s monthlyMichigan Consumer Sentiment Index]]'s consumer expectations