Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 00:22, 15 October 2012

Revision as of 19:52, 16 February 2013

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*[[Delphi method|Delphi Group]] Estimating (a form of Consensus estimates)

*[[Program Evaluation and Review Technique]] (PERT)

He spends significant time throughout the book discussing the PERT method and clearing up misconceptions on the PERT process. He explains that the PERT method of estimation generates the expected duration of a task by adding the pessimistic, optimistic and four times the most likely durations and dividing them by six. The standard deviation is determined isby taking the difference of the pessimistic and optimistic durations and dividing them by six. The standard deviation is a reflection of the uncertainty in the estimates.

After determining the durations and sequencing the [[critical path method|critical path]] can be determined. The Critical Path is the longest contiguous path of tasks with no lag. The easiest way to do this is by using one of the many computerized tools on the market. He cautions that an increase in critical and near-critical paths will bias significantly increase the probability that the project will not complete by the projected time. This is due to the statistical probabilities of multiple paths causing failure.