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The '''probabilistic voting theory''', also known as the '''probabilistic voting model''', is a [[voting theory]] developed by professors [[Assar Lindbeck]] and [[Jörgen Weibull]] in the article "Balanced-budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition", published in 1987 in the journal ''Public Choice'', which has gradually replaced the [[median voter theory]], thanks to its ability to find
The probabilistic voting model assumes that voters are imperfectly informed about candidates and their platforms. Candidates are also imperfectly informed about the utility preferences of the electorate and the distribution of voters' preferences.
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==Applications==
[[Political economy]] and [[public economics]] are the main fields where the probabilistic voting theory is applied. In particular, it was used to explain [[public expenditure
Probabilistic voting models are usually preferred to traditional [[Anthony Downs|Downsian]] median voter models, as in the former all voters have an influence on the policy outcome, whereas in the latter all power rests in the hands of the pivotal voter or group. For instance, in models where young and old (or rich and poor) voters have conflicting interests, probabilistic voting models predict that the winning candidate strikes a balance between the different interests in her/his policy platform. Due to the smooth mapping between the distribution of policy preferences and the political outcomes, this model has proven to be very tractable and convenient to use in dynamic models with repeated voting.
==References==
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