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Consider the general problem of estimating the quantity
where <math>H</math> is some ''performance function'' and <math>f(\mathbf{x};\mathbf{u})</math> is a member of some [[parametric family]] of distributions. Using [[importance sampling]] this quantity can be estimated as
where <math>\mathbf{X}_1,\dots,\mathbf{X}_N</math> is a random sample from <math>g\,</math>. For positive <math>H</math>, the theoretically ''optimal'' importance sampling [[probability density function|density]] (pdf) is given by
This, however, depends on the unknown <math>\ell</math>. The CE method aims to approximate the optimal PDF by adaptively selecting members of the parametric family that are closest (in the [[Kullback–Leibler divergence|Kullback–Leibler]] sense) to the optimal PDF <math>g^*</math>.
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