Power transition theory: Difference between revisions

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'''Power transition theory''' is a theory about the nature of [[war]], in relation to the [[power in international relations]].<ref name="Organski">{{Cite book|last=Organski|first=AFK|authorlink=A.F.K. Organski|title=World Politics|year=1958|___location=[[New York City|New York]]}}</ref><ref name="Wittkopf">{{Cite book|last=Wittkopf|first=Eugene R.|title=World Politics: Trend and Transformation|year=1997|publisher=St. Martin's Press|___location=[[New York City|New York]]}}</ref><ref name="Tammen">{{Cite book|last=Tammen|first=Ronald L.|title=Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century|year=2000|publisher=Seven Bridges Press}}</ref> The theory was first published in 1958 by its creator, [[A.F.K. Organski]], in his textbook, ''World Politics'' (1958).

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==Hierarchy==

While Organski's hierarchy initially referred only to the entire international system, Douglas Lemke later expanded the hierarchy model to include regional hierarchies, arguing that each region contains its own dominant, great, and small powers. Thus regional hierarchies exist embedded into the larger international hierarchy.<ref>LemkeMold, Douglas,Andrew. (20022003). Regions of Warwar and Peace.peace Cambridgeedited Universityby PressDouglas Lemke (JanuaryCambridge: 21Cambridge University Press, 2002, pp. 235). Journal of International Development. 15. 805–806. {{doi|10.1002/jid.1014}}.</ref>

==Historical application==

[[Image:Storck, Four Days Battle.jpg|thumb|350px|''The Royal Prince and other vessels at the Four Days Fight, 11&ndash;1411–14 June 1666'' by ''Abraham Storck'' depicts a battle of the [[Second Anglo-Dutch War]]. This period marked the beginning of a significant threat to Dutch hegemony in Europe]]

The theory leads to the ''long cycle theory'' of war and seeks to explain trends between warring states in the past 500 years. The general trend is that a nation achieves [[hegemony|hegemonic power]] and then is challenged by a [[great power]]. This leads to a war which, in the past, has created a transition between the two powers. Eugene R. Wittkopf explores past wars and their relation to Power Transition theory in his book ''World Politics: Trend and Transformation''. He explains this using [[George Modelski]]'s Seapower Concentration Index.<ref name="Wittkopf"/>

At 1518, [[Portugal]] assumed a hegemonic position in world politics. However, as the [[Netherlands]] (which was experiencing the [[Dutch Golden Age]]) rose in power, a series of struggles led to the destruction of Spain's power and a transition to Dutch hegemony. Dutch hegemony was brought into question again in 1688 with the Wars of Louis XIV, which resulted in what is referred to as the "Britain I Cycle", the [[Napoleonic Wars]] interrupted this cycle and questioned the hegemony Britain possessed. However, Britain's victory resulted in maintenance of power and the "Britain II Cycle".<ref name="Wittkopf"/> This cycle ended with the World Wars and Wittkopf shows the period of 1914-19451914–1945 as one of particular turbulence in which no power maintained hegemony, even after the [[Treaty of Versailles]].<ref name="Wittkopf"/> After the second World War, a drastic increase in seapower concentration by the [[United States]] was experienced and it – along with the [[Soviet Union]] – became the world's first [[superpower]]s.<ref name="Wittkopf"/>

In general, hegemonic periods last approximately 60 to 90 years and conflicts which result in a period stabilization of power distribution last approximately 20 years.<ref name="Wittkopf"/> This can be explained through [[war-weariness]] and the tendency (although this was broken in the first half of the 20th century) for nations not to engage themselves in another conflict after being involved in a power transition.<ref name="Wittkopf"/>

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==See also==

* [[Lateral pressure theory]]

* [[Thucydides' trap]]

{{International power}}

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==External links==

* [http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/HegemonicZonesOfInfluence/ Hegemonic Zones of Influence] by Michael Schreiber, [[The Wolfram Demonstrations Project]].

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