Morphological analysis (problem-solving): Difference between revisions

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'''Morphological analysis''' or '''general morphological analysis''' is a method developed by [[Fritz Zwicky]] (1967, 1969) for exploring all the possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by [[Fritz Zwicky]].<ref name = "GMA">Ritchey, T. (1998). [http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html General Morphological Analysis: A general method for non-quantified modeling].</ref>

==Overview==

General [[morphology]] was developed by [[Fritz Zwicky]], the Bulgarian-born, Swiss-national [[astrophysicist]] based at the [[California Institute of Technology]]. Among others, Zwicky applied morphological analysis (MA) to astronomical studies and the development of jet and [[Spacecraft propulsion|rocket propulsion]] systems. As a problem-structuring and [[Problem solving|problem-solving]] technique, MA was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modelling and simulation do not function well, or at all. Zwicky developed this approach to address seemingly non-reducible complexity: using the technique of cross-consistency assessment (CCA) (Ritchey, 1998), the system allows for reduction by identifying the possible solutions that actually exist, eliminating the illogical solution combinations in a grid box rather than reducing the number of variables involved. A detailed introduction to morphological modelling is given in Ritchey (2002, 2006). A summary of 80 published articles exemplifying the various applications of general morphology, including engineering design, technological forecasting, organizational development and policy analysis, is available in Álvarez & Ritchey (2015).

Zwicky developed this approach to address seemingly non-reducible complexity: using the technique of cross-consistency assessment (CCA),<ref name="GMA" /> the system allows for reduction by identifying the possible solutions that actually exist, eliminating the illogical solution combinations in a grid box rather than reducing the number of variables involved.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Ritchey|first=T|date=July 2006|title=Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602177|journal=Journal of the Operational Research Society|volume=57|issue=7|pages=792–801|doi=10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602177|issn=0160-5682|via=}}</ref> General morphology has found use in fields including engineering design, technological forecasting, organizational development and policy analysis.<ref>Álvarez, A. & Ritchey, T. (2015). [http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf "Applications of General Morphological Analysis: From Engineering Design to Policy Analysis", Acta Morphologica Generalis, Vol.4 No.1.]</ref>

===Morphological analysis of real-world problems===

Consider a complex, real-world problem where there are many governing factors, and most of them cannot be expressed as numerical time series data, as one would like to have for building mathematical models.

==Decomposition vs MA==

The conventional approach here would be to break the system down into parts, isolate the vital parts (dropping the 'trivial' components) for their contributions to the output and solve the simplified system for creating desired models or scenarios. The disadvantage of this method is that real-world scenarios do not behave rationally: more often than not, a simplified model will break down when the contribution of the 'trivial' components becomes significant. Also, importantly, the behaviour of many components will be governed by the states of, and their relations with, other components – ones that may be seen to be minor before the analysis.

Problems that involve many governing factors, where most of them cannot be expressed numerically can be well suited for MA.

The conventional approach is to break a complex system into parts, isolate the parts (dropping the 'trivial' elements) whose contributions are critical to the output and solve the simplified system for desired scenarios. The disadvantage of this method is that many real-world phenomena do not have obviously trivial elements and cannot be simplified.

Morphological analysis, on the other hand, does not drop any of the components from the system itself, but works backwards from the output towards the system internals.<ref>Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems Using Morphological Analysis (Ritchey 2003-06)[http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/it-webart.pdf]</ref> Again, the interactions and relations get to play their parts in MA and their effects are accounted for in the analysis.

Morphological analysis, on the other hand, does not drop any of the components from the system itself, but works backwards from the output towards the system internals without a simplification step.<ref>Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems Using Morphological Analysis (Ritchey 2003-06)[http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/it-webart.pdf]</ref> Again,The thesystem's interactions andare relations get to play their parts in MA and their effects arefully accounted for in the analysis.

== References ==

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== Further reading ==

*{{Citation|last=Ritchey|first=Tom|title=Modelling Complex Policy Issues with Morphological Analysis|date=2011|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9_4|work=Wicked Problems – Social Messes|pages=31–37|publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg|isbn=9783642196522|access-date=2019-05-05}}

* Ritchey, T. (1998). [http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html General Morphological Analysis: A general method for non-quantified modelling]

*{{Cite journal|last=Page|first=T.|date=1969-03-21|title=Discovery, Invention, Research, through the Morphological Approach |first=Fritz |last=Zwicky |publisher=Macmillan ___location=New York|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.163.3873.1317|journal=Science|volume=163|issue=3873|pages=1317–1318|doi=10.1126/science.163.3873.1317|issn=0036-8075}}

* Ritchey, T. (2006). "Problem Structuring using Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis". Journal of the Operational Research Society (JORS), Vol. 57, No. 7

*{{Citation|last=Wilson|first=Albert|title=Epilogue|date=1967|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-87617-2_17|work=New Methods of Thought and Procedure|pages=333–338|publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg|isbn=9783642876196|access-date=2019-05-05}}

* Ritchey, T. (2011) ''Wicked Problems/Social Messes: Decision support Modelling with Morphological Analysis''. Berlin: Springer

*{{Cite journal|last=Jones|first=J. C.|date=July 1981|title=Design methods and theories|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0142-694x(81)90074-0|journal=Design Studies|volume=2|issue=3|pages=176|doi=10.1016/0142-694x(81)90074-0|issn=0142-694X|via=}}

* Zwicky, F. (1969). ''Discovery, Invention, Research - Through the Morphological Approach''. Toronto: The Macmillan Company

*{{Cite journal|last=Shubik|first=M.|date=1969-12-05|title=Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning. Robert U. Ayres. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969. xviii + 238 pp., illus. $12.50|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.166.3910.1257|journal=Science|volume=166|issue=3910|pages=1257–1258|doi=10.1126/science.166.3910.1257|issn=0036-8075}}

* Zwicky, F. & Wilson A. (eds.) (1967). ''New Methods of Thought and Procedure: Contributions to the Symposium on Methodologies''. Berlin: Springer

*{{Cite Duczynski, G.A. (2016). [web|url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328716300970 "|title=Morphological analysis as an aid to organisational design and transformation"]|last=Duczynski|first=G. Futures, In Press, August A.|date=2016|website=www.sciencedirect.com|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2019-05-05}}

* Jones, J.C. (1981). ''Design Methods''. Wiley

*{{Cite Duczynski, G.A. Jablonski, J. Huddleston, S. (2015). [web|url=https://globalecco.org/ctx-vol.-5-no.-1-february-2015;jsessionid=963C6228BE8D478E0605E2CFEBA524CF ''|title=Sustainability of the Afghan Security Forces: A Wicked Problem]''.|last=Duczynski,|first=G.A.|last2=Jablonski|first2=J.|date=February 2015|website=globalecco.org|publisher=Counter Terrorism Exchange, Vol |archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2019-05-05|last3=Huddleston|first3=V|volume=5, No |issue=1}}

* Ayres, R.U. (1969). ''Technological Forecasting and Long-Time Planning''. McGraw-Hill

*{{cite journal|url=https://www.systemdynamics.org/assets/conferences/2000/PDFs/ducz124p.pdf |last=Duczynski, |first=G.A. (|year=2000). ''|title=A Practitioner's Experience of Using Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures''. |journal=Futures Research Quarterly, Vol |volume=16, No|issue= 3}}

* Duczynski, G.A. (2016). [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328716300970 "Morphological analysis as an aid to organisational design and transformation"]. Futures, In Press, August 2016

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=Guy|date=October 2004|title=Systems approaches to economic development for indigenous people: a case study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2004.01.001|journal=Futures|volume=36|issue=8|pages=869–888|doi=10.1016/j.futures.2004.01.001|issn=0016-3287}}

* Duczynski, G.A. Jablonski, J. Huddleston, S. (2015). [https://globalecco.org/ctx-vol.-5-no.-1-february-2015;jsessionid=963C6228BE8D478E0605E2CFEBA524CF ''Sustainability of the Afghan Security Forces: A Wicked Problem]''. Counter Terrorism Exchange, Vol 5, No 1

*{{Citation|last=Levin|first=Mark Sh.|title=Modular Systems, Combinatorial Engineering Frameworks|date=2014-09-06|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09876-0_1|work=Modular System Design and Evaluation|pages=1–10|publisher=Springer International Publishing|isbn=9783319098753|access-date=2019-05-05}}

* Duczynski, G.A. (2000). ''A Practitioner's Experience of Using Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures''. Futures Research Quarterly, Vol 16, No 3

*{{Cite journal|last=Duczynski|first=Guy|date=January 2018|title=Investigating traffic congestion: Targeting technological and social interdependencies through general morphological analysis|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.019|journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change|volume=126|pages=161–167|doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.019|issn=0040-1625}}

* Duczynski, G.A. (2004). ''Systems Approaches to Economic Development for Indigenous People: A Case Study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia''. Futures, 36

* Levin, Mark Sh. (2015). ''Modular systems design and evaluation''. Springer.

* Álvarez, A. & Ritchey, T. (2015). [http://www.amg.swemorph.com/pdf/amg-4-1-2015.pdf "Applications of General Morphological Analysis: From Engineering Design to Policy Analysis", Acta Morphologica Generalis, Vol.4 No.1.]

* Duczynski, G.A. (2017). Solving Traffic Congestion: Targeting Technological and Social Interdependencies through General Morphological Analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, United Kingdom. Vol 126

== See also ==