Web Bot: Difference between revisions

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{{about|the prediction software|internet-based programs|Internet bot}}

{{Use dmy dates|date=January 2012}}

'''Web Bot''' is an [[internet bot]] computer program whose developers claim is able to predict future events by tracking keywords entered on the internet. It was developed in 1997, originally to predict stock market trends.<ref name=telegraph>{{cite news|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/6227357/Web-bot-project-makes-prophecy-of-2012-apocalypse.html|title='Web-bot project' makes prophecy of 2012 apocalypse|last=Chivers|first=Tom|date=24 September 2009|work=The Daily Telegraph |___location=London |accessdateaccess-date=4 October 2009 }}</ref> The creator of the Web Bot Project, [[Clif High]], along with his associate [[George Ure]], keep the technology and [[algorithm]]s largely secret and sell the predictions via the website.

==Methodology==

[[Internet bots]] monitor news articles, blogs, forums, and other forms of Internet chatter. Words in the lexicon are assigned numeric values for emotional quantifiers such as duration, impact, immediacy, intensity, and others. The lexicon is dynamic, and changes according to shifts in emotional tension, and how humans communicate those changes using the Internet. As of 2008, there were about 300,000 keywords in the lexicon, along with emotional context,<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.jpost.com/HealthAndSci-Tech/InternetAndTechnology/Article.aspx?id=125783|title=Digital World: I have seen the future, and it's on the Web|last=Shamah|first=David|date=23 December 2008|work=[[The Jerusalem Post]]|accessdateaccess-date=4 October 2009}}</ref> which are fed into a computer-generated modelspace.

The operators of Web Bot interpret the bot's results and make a report called the "ALTA report" available on their website to paying subscribers. ALTA stands for "asymmetric language trend analysis".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.halfpasthuman.com/altaprocess.html |title=ALTA Process |author=<!--Staff writer(s); no by-line.--> |date=8 May 2011 |website=Half Past Human: Adventures in Future Viewing |publisher= |accessdateaccess-date=10 April 2016 |quote=}}</ref> Many believe the predictions are [[pseudoscientific]] and too vague to be meaningful.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailycommonsense.com/web-bot-what-is-it-can-it-predict-stuff/ |title=Web Bot, What is it? Can it Predict Stuff? |publisher=Daily Common Sense |url-status=dead |archiveurlarchive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091012193312/http://www.dailycommonsense.com/web-bot-what-is-it-can-it-predict-stuff/ |archivedatearchive-date=12 October 2009 }}</ref> Despite this, the creators have made many claims [[Postdiction|after the fact]] that their reports have predicted important events.

==Predictions==

===Claimed hits===

*[[Northeast Blackout of 2003]]<ref name=torontostar>{{cite news|url=https://www.thestar.com/entertainment/Television/article/414923|title=Decoding the End of Days|work=Toronto Star|accessdateaccess-date=25 October 2009 | first=Vinay | last=Menon | date=16 April 2008}}</ref>

*[[2004 Indian Ocean earthquake]]<ref name=torontostar/><ref name=newkerala>{{cite web|url=http://www.newkerala.com/nkfullnews-1-118770.html |title=World's expiry date: 21 December 2012? |publisher=NewKerala.com |accessdateaccess-date=3 October 2009 |url-status=dead |archiveurlarchive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090928052351/http://www.newkerala.com/nkfullnews-1-118770.html |archivedatearchive-date=28 September 2009 }}</ref>

*[[Hurricane Katrina]] and its devastation<ref name=torontostar/><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ethiopianreview.com/scitech/12308 |title='Web-bot project' makes prophecy of 2012 apocalypse |publisher=Ethiopian Review |accessdateaccess-date=4 October 2009 |url-status=dead |archiveurlarchive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091119080609/http://www.ethiopianreview.com/scitech/12308 |archivedatearchive-date=19 November 2009 }}</ref>

===Misses===

* The Web Bot gained most of its notoriety for contributing to the [[2012 phenomenon]] by predicting a cataclysm that would devastate the planet on 21 December 2012, possibly a reversing of [[Earth's magnetic field|Earth's magnetic poles]] or a small series of nuclear attacks leading up to a major attack during the year. The prediction did not call for a complete end of the world.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Worlds-expiry-date-21-December-2012/521526/ |title=World's expiry date: 21 December 2012? |publisher=ExpressIndia |accessdateaccess-date=3 October 2009 |url-status=dead |archiveurlarchive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100329041221/http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Worlds-expiry-date-21-December-2012/521526/ |archivedatearchive-date=29 March 2010 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.eldia.com.ar/edis/20080427/revistadomingo15.htm|title=El Nostradamus virtual (in Spanish)|publisher=[[El Día (La Plata)|El Día]]|accessdateaccess-date=25 October 2009}}</ref>

* Web Bot predicted that a massive earthquake would occur in December 2008 in [[Vancouver, British Columbia]], Canada and the [[Pacific Northwest]], but no such event happened.<ref name=taylor>{{cite news|url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/article651047.ece |title=Vanwaterworld? Hold the Armageddon talk |last=Taylor |first=Timothy |date=January 2009 |work=The Globe and Mail |___location=Canada |accessdateaccess-date=4 October 2009 |url-status=dead |archiveurlarchive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100329060911/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/article651047.ece |archivedatearchive-date=29 March 2010 }}</ref>

* A prediction that the US dollar would completely collapse in 2011, and that [[Israel]] would bomb [[Iran]], with the administration of U.S. President [[Barack Obama]] being thrown into major chaos.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://seekingalpha.com/article/167241-the-market-s-current-psychological-map|title=The Market's Current Psychological Map|publisher=[[Seeking Alpha]]|accessdateaccess-date=25 October 2009}}</ref>

==Reception==

The [[History (U.S. TV channel)|History Channel]] has discussed Web Bot in its special "Doomsday 2012: The End of Days" on [[Decoding_the_Past#Season_3| season 3 of Decoding The Past]] and on other shows that feature predictions about the end of the world, such as the ''[[Nostradamus Effect]]''.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.history.com/shows.do?action=detail&episodeId=396904 |title=History TV Shows |publisher=History.com |accessdateaccess-date=4 January 2012}}{{Failed verification|date=August 2015|reason=Doomsday 2012 isn't listed anymore. Probably not on the network anymore.}}</ref> A ''[[The Globe and Mail]]'' journalist noted that {{quote|"What interests me more than the bot's accuracy (of which I'm skeptical), is the relentless negativity of its projections. According to the bot, the future is always bleak and steadily worsening."<ref name=taylor/>}} Tom Chivers in the ''[[Daily Telegraph]]'' notes three criticisms of the project: {{quote|"the internet might plausibly reveal group knowledge about the stock market or, conceivably, terror attacks [but] it would be no more capable of predicting a natural disaster than would a Google search, ... the predictions are so vague as to be meaningless, [and] the prophecies become self-distorting."<ref name=telegraph/>}}

==See also==