Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 16:37, 13 December 2006

Revision as of 12:14, 16 January 2007

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==Track models==

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Some of the track models used by the National Hurricane Center follows: <ref name="Sim_Aberson_FAQ">[http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html NHC Tropical Cyclone FAQ Subject F2]</ref> <ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria">[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml Summary of the NHC/TPC Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidence Models]</ref> <ref name="2005_Verification">[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2005.pdf 2005 NHC Forecast Verification Report]</ref>

*'''CLIPER''' (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model ('''CLIPER5''' is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model. <ref name="2005_Verification"/>

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*'''UKMET''' ([[United Kingdom]] [[Meteorological Office]])

*'''NOGAPS''' ([[United States Navy]] Global Atmospheric Prediction System)

*'''GFS''' ([[National Weather Service]] [[Global_Forecast_System|Global Forecast System]])

Some models do not produce output quickly enough to be used for the forecast cycle immediately after the model starts running. Most of the above track models (except CLIPER) require data from global weather models, which produce output about four hours after [[synoptic time]]. However, the NHC issues forecasts only three hours after that time, so some "early" models - NHC90, BAM, and LBAR - are run using a 12-hour-old forecast for the current time. "Late" models, such as the GFS and GFDL, finish after the advisory has already been issued. These models are [[interpolation|interpolated]] to the current storm position for use in the following forecast cycle - for example, GFDI. <ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria"/> <ref name="2005_Verification"/>

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==Intensity models==

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Some of the intensity models used by the National Hurricane Center follows:<ref name="Sim_Aberson_FAQ"/> <ref name="2005_Verification"/>