Wind power forecasting: Difference between revisions

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==Reason for wind power forecasts==

In the electricity grid at any moment balance must be maintained between electricity consumption and generation – otherwise disturbances in power quality or supply may occur. Wind generation is a direct function of wind speed and, in contrast to conventional generation systems, is not easily [[Dispatchable generation|dispatchable]]., Fluctuationsso fluctuations of wind generation thusrequire receivepower substitution from other sources that might not be available on a greatshort amountnotice.{{sfn|Haupt|2015|p=47}} The problem gets more complex once the wind power starts providing more than a small percentage of attentionthe overall electricity supplied to the grid. Better forecasts allow utilities to deploy less [[spinning reserve]], usually natural gas-based generators.{{sfn|Haupt|2015|p=47-48}}

Variability of wind generation can be regarded at various time scales. First, wind power production is subject to seasonal variations, i.e. it may be higher in winter in Northern Europe due to low-pressure meteorological systems or it may be higher in summer in the Mediterranean regions owing to strong summer breezes. There are also daily cycles which may be substantial, mainly due to daily temperature changes. Finally, fluctuations are observed at the very short-term scale (at the minute or intra-minute scale). The variations are not of the same order for these three different timescales. Managing the variability of wind generation is the key aspect associated to the optimal integration of that renewable energy into electricity grids.{{citation needed|date=February 2012}}

The challenges to face when wind generation is injected in a power system depend on the share of that renewable energy. It is a basic concept, the wind penetration which allows one to describe the share of wind generation in the electricity mix of a given power system. For Denmark, which is a country with one of the highest shares of wind power in the electricity mix, the average wind power penetration over the year is of 16–20% (meaning that 16–20% of the electricity consumption is met wind energy), while the instantaneous penetration (that is, the instantaneous wind power production compared to the consumption to be met at a given time) may be above 100%.{{citation needed|date=February 2012}}