Wind power forecasting: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 04:38, 9 October 2021

Revision as of 02:09, 10 October 2021

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==Time scales of forecasts==

Forecasting of the wind power generation may be considered at different time scales, depending on the intended application:{{sfn|Devi|2021|p=80-81}}{{sfn|Hanifi|2020|p=3766}}

* ''very short-term'' forecasts (from seconds up to minutes) are used for the real-time turbine active control and [[electrical grid]] management, as well as for [[market clearing]];

* ''short-term'' forecasts (from 30 minutes up to hours) are used to direct[[Dispatchable powergeneration|dispatch outputplanning]], inintelligent the[[load gridshedding]] decisions;

* ''medium-term'' forecasts (from 6 hours up to a day) are used for to make decisions for switching the turbine on or off for safety or conditions on the market;

* ''long-term'' forecasts (from a day up to a week or even a year) are used for long term planning (to schedule the maintenance or [[unit commitment]], optimize the [[cost of operation]]). Maintenance of offshore wind farms may be particularly costly, so optimal planning of maintenance operations is of particular importance.

For the last two possibilities, the temporal resolution of wind power predictions ranges between 10 minutes and a few hours (depending on the forecast length). Improvements of wind power forecasting has focused on using more data as input to the models involved, and on providing uncertainty estimates along with the traditionally provided predictions.{{citation needed|date=October 2021}}