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==Ensemble methods==
{{further|Ensemble forecasting}}
No model is ever perfectly accurate because it is impossible to learn exactly everything about the atmosphere in a timely enough manner, and atmospheric measurements that are taken are not completely accurate.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Epstein|first=E.S.|title=Stochastic dynamic prediction|journal=[[Tellus A|Tellus]]|date=December 1969|volume=21|issue=6|pages=739–759|doi=10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00483.x|bibcode=1969Tell...21..739E}}</ref> The use of the ensemble method of forecasting, whether it be a multi-model ensemble, or numerous ensemble members based on the global model, helps define the uncertainty and further limit errors.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ens/pdf/WEM_WKSHP_2004.epgrimit.pdf|title=Redefining the Ensemble Spread-Skill Relationship from a Probabilistic Perspective|author1=Grimit, Eric P.|author2=Mass, Clifford F.|publisher=[[University of Washington]]|date=October 2004|access-date=2010-01-02|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081012094121/http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ens/pdf/WEM_WKSHP_2004.epgrimit.pdf|archive-date=12 October 2008|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/2222289_WAF_Feb-2010.official.PDF|title=Fog Prediction From a Multimodel Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System|author1=Zhou, Binbin |author2=Du, Jun |volume=25|issue=1|date=February 2010|access-date=2011-01-02|journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]]|pages=303–322|doi=10.1175/2009WAF2222289.1|bibcode=2010WtFor..25..303Z}}</ref>
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