Wind power forecasting: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 13:27, 9 December 2021

Revision as of 12:53, 18 January 2022

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==General methodology==

Several techniques ovof various degree of sophistication are used for short-term prediction of wind generation:{{sfn|Hanifi|2020|pp=3766-3771}}

* ''persistence'' method is naïve: it assumes that the wind power in the next time interval will stay the same as the current measured instantaneous power. Forecast efficiency naturally quickly deteriorates with time going forward, and typically this method is used as a base-level set of numbers for the predictions of other methods to be compared against;

* physical methods that use the [[numerical weather prediction]] results, recalculate them into the wind speed at the generation site utilizing the physical characteristics of the area around the wind farm and convert the speed to power predictions using the turbine power curve;