Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

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[[Fil<nowiki>Insert non-formatted text here</nowiki>eFile:Ernesto2006mo⅘delspreadErnesto2006modelspread.png|thumb|right|250px|Significant track errors still occur on occasion, as seen in this [[Hurricane Ernesto (2006)|Ernesto (2006)]] early forecast. The [[National Hurricane Center|NHC]] official forecast is light blue, while the storm's actual track is the white line over [[Florida]].]]<!--image stacked below trend-map (same width) -->

A '''tropical cyclone forecast model''' is a computer program that uses [[meteorology|meteorological]] data to [[weather forecasting|forecast]] aspects of the future state of [[tropical cyclone]]s. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic.<ref name="NHCmodel"/> Dynamical models utilize powerful [[supercomputer]]s with sophisticated [[mathematical model]]ing software and meteorological data to [[numerical weather prediction|calculate future weather conditions]]. [[Statistical model]]s forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as [[personal computer]]s. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: [[tropical cyclone track forecasting|track]], intensity, [[storm surge]], and [[tropical cyclone rainfall climatology|rainfall]]. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem.

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A series of statistical-dynamical models, which used regression equations based upon CLIPER output and the latest output from [[primitive equations|primitive equation]] models run at the National Meteorological Center, then [[National Centers for Environmental Prediction]], were developed between the 1970s and 1990s and were named NHC73, NHC83, NHC90, NHC91, and NHC98.<ref name="NHCmodel"/><ref name="Simpson">{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=P7DnIb2XNg0C&q=QLM+quasi+tropical+cyclone+model+book&pg=PA111|page=110|author=Simpson, Robert H.|title=Hurricane!: coping with disaster : progress and challenges since Galveston, 1900|publisher=[[American Geophysical Union]]|year=2003|access-date=2011-02-25|isbn=978-0-87590-297-5|author-link=Robert Simpson (meteorologist)}}</ref> Within the field of [[tropical cyclone track forecasting]], despite the ever-improving dynamical model guidance which occurred with increased computational power, it was not until the decade of the 1980s when [[numerical weather prediction]] showed [[Forecast skill|skill]], and until the 1990s when it consistently outperformed statistical or simple dynamical models.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml|publisher=[[National Hurricane Center]]|date=2010-04-20|access-date=2011-01-02|author=Franklin, James|title=National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification|author-link=James Franklin (meteorologist)}}</ref> In 1994, a version of SHIFOR was created for the northwest Pacific Ocean for [[typhoon]] forecasting, known as the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Forecast (STIFOR), which used the 1971–1990 data for that region to develop intensity forecasts out to 72&nbsp;hours into the future.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA290588|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130408130855/http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA290588|url-status=dead|archive-date=8 April 2013|title=A Regression Model For the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast|author=Chu, Jan-Hwa|publisher=[[United States Naval Research Laboratory]]|date=November 1994|access-date=2011-03-15}}</ref>

In regards to intensity forecasting, the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) utilizes relationships between environmental conditions from the [[Global Forecast System]] (GFS) such as vertical [[wind shear]] and [[sea surface temperature]]s, climatology, and persistence (storm behavior) via multiple regression techniques to come up with an intensity forecast for systems in the northern Atlantic and northeastern Pacific oceans.<ref name="NHCmodel"/> A similar model was developed for the northwest Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere known as the Statistical Intensity Prediction System (STIPS), which accounts for land interactions through the input environmental conditions from the [[Navy Operational Global Prediction System]] (NOGAPS) model.<ref name="STIPS">{{cite web|url=http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/107554.pdf|title=A Statistical Intensity Model Consensus For the Joint Typhoon Warning Center|author=Sampson, Charles R., John A. Knaff, and Mark DeMaria|date=2006-03-01|access-date=2011-03-15}}</ref> The version of SHIPS with an inland decay component is known as Decay SHIPS (DSHIPS). The Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM) uses the same input as SHIPS but within a simplified dynamical prediction system.<ref name="NHCmodel"/> Within [[tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting]], the Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (r-CLIPER) model was developed using microwave rainfall data from polar orbiting satellites over the ocean and first-order rainfall measurements from the land, to come up with a realistic rainfall distribution for tropical cyclones based on the National Hurricane Center's track forecast. It has been operational since 2004.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=8lUMg9U2y0EC&q=r-CLIPER+book&pg=PT119|title=NOAA's role in space-based global precipitation estimation and application|author=National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Future of Rainfall Measuring Missions, National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate|year=2007|publisher=National Academies Press|isbn=978-0-309-10298-8}}</ref> A statistical-parametric wind radii model has been developed for use at the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center which uses climatology and persistence to predict wind structure out to five days into the future.<ref name="models"/>

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for use at the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center which uses climatology and persistence to predict wind structure out to five days into the future.<ref name="models"/>

==Dynamical guidance==