Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 13:14, 11 January 2022

Revision as of 21:56, 11 August 2022

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'''The Conference Board Leading Economic Index''' is an American economic [[leading indicator]] intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by [[The Conference Board]], a [[non-governmental organization]], which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key [[Variable (mathematics)|variables]]. These variables have historically turned downward before a [[recession]] and upward before an [[Economic expansion|expansion]]. The per cent change year over year of the Leading Economic Index is a lagging indicator of the market directions.<ref>[https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-closer-look-at-the-conference-board-leading-economic-index A Closer Look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index | Andrew Kitchings, CAIA, ERP, FRM | Commonwealth Financial Network® | Aug 22, 2018]</ref>

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report '''What Predicts U.S. Recessions?''' uses each component of the '''Conference Board’sBoard's Leading Economic Index'''. That report said that the indicators signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle, and the aggregate index has been shown to drop ahead of recessions and rise before expansions.<ref>[https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr691.pdf What Predicts U.S. Recessions? Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Staff Reports | What Predicts U.S. Recessions? | Weiling Liu and Emanuel Moench | Staff Report No. 691 | September 2014]</ref>

Revisions to '''The Conference Board Leading Economic Index''' effective with the January 26, 2012 release began using the new '''Leading Credit Index''' ... etc.<ref>[https://www.conference-board.org/data/bci/index.cfm?id=2154 Calculating the Composite Indexes]</ref>