Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 18:48, 11 July 2022

Revision as of 02:02, 16 August 2022

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[[File:Irene13.gif|right|thumb|A NOAA prediction for [[Hurricane Irene (2011)|Hurricane Irene]] ]]

The [[Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model|Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting]] (HWRF) model is a specialized version of the [[Weather Research and Forecasting model|Weather Research and Forecasting]] (WRF) model and is used to [[weather forecasting|forecast]] the track and [[tropical cyclone scales|intensity]] of [[tropical cyclone]]s. The model was developed by the [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] (NOAA), the [[United States Naval Research Laboratory|U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]], the [[University of Rhode Island]], and [[Florida State University]].<ref>{{cite web|publisher=[[University Corporation for Atmospheric Research|UCAR]] press release|url=http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/wrf.shtml|title=Weather Forecast Accuracy Gets Boost with New Computer Model|access-date=2007-07-09|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070519183407/http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/wrf.shtml|archive-date=19 May 2007}}</ref> It became operational in 2007.<ref name="NOAA Magazine Article 2885">{{cite web|publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA Magazine]]|url=http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2885.htm|title=New Advanced Hurricane Model Aids NOAA Forecasters|access-date= 2007-07-09}}</ref> Despite improvements in track forecasting, predictions of the intensity of a tropical cyclone based on numerical weather prediction continue to be a challenge, since statiscalstatistical methods continue to show higher skill over dynamical guidance.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Rappaport|first=Edward N. |author2=Franklin, James L. |author3=Avila, Lixion A. |author4=Baig, Stephen R. |author5=Beven, John L. |author6=Blake, Eric S. |author7=Burr, Christopher A. |author8=Jiing, Jiann-Gwo |author9=Juckins, Christopher A. |author10=Knabb, Richard D. |author11=Landsea, Christopher W. |author12=Mainelli, Michelle |author13=Mayfield, Max |author14=McAdie, Colin J. |author15=Pasch, Richard J. |author16=Sisko, Christopher |author17=Stewart, Stacy R. |author18=Tribble, Ahsha N. |title=Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center|journal=Weather and Forecasting|date=April 2009|volume=24|issue=2|pages=395–419|doi=10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1|bibcode=2009WtFor..24..395R|citeseerx=10.1.1.207.4667 }}</ref> Other than the specialized guidance, global guidance such as the GFS, [[Unified Model]] (UKMET), NOGAPS, Japanese Global Spectral Model (GSM), [[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts]] model, France's Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) and Aire Limit´ee Adaptation Dynamique Initialisation (ALADIN) models, India's [[National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting]] (NCMRWF) model, Korea's Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) and Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) models, Hong Kong/China's Operational Regional Spectral Model (ORSM) model, and Canadian [[Global Environmental Multiscale Model]] (GEM) model are used for track and intensity purposes.<ref name="models"/>

===Timeliness===