Software development effort estimation: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 00:20, 28 October 2022

Revision as of 14:49, 5 December 2022

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==Psychological issues==

{{You|section|date=October 2022}}

There are many psychological factors potentially explaining the strong tendency towards over-optimistic effort estimates that need to be dealt with to increase accuracy of effort estimates. These factors are essential even when using formal estimation models, because much of the input to these models is judgment-based. Factors that have been demonstrated to be important are: [[Wishful thinking]], [[anchoring]], [[planning fallacy]] and [[cognitive dissonance]]. A discussion on these and other factors can be found in work by Jørgensen and Grimstad.<ref>{{cite web

| author = Jørgensen, M. Grimstad, S.

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| url = http://simula.no/research/se/publications/Simula.SE.112 }}

</ref>

* It's easy to estimate what youis knowknown.

* It's hard to estimate what youis knowknown youto don'tbe knowunknown. (known unknowns)

* It's very hard to estimate thingswhat thatis younot don'tknown knowto yoube don't knowunknown. (unknown unknowns)

==Humor==