Content deleted Content added
... |
...source; minor ce |
||
Line 3:
The '''Delphi method''' or '''Delphi technique''' ({{IPAc-en|ˈ|d|ɛ|l|f|aɪ}} {{respell|DEL|fy}}; also known as '''Estimate-Talk-Estimate''' or '''ETE''') is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive [[forecasting]] method which relies on a panel of experts.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Dalkey N, Helmer O | year = 1963 | title = An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the use of experts | journal = Management Science | volume = 9 | issue = 3| pages = 458–467 | doi=10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458| hdl = 2027/inu.30000029301680 | hdl-access = free }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Brown BB | title = Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts. | publisher = Rand Corp | ___location = Santa Monica CA | date = September 1968 | id = P-3925 | url = https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0675981 }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Sackman H | title = Delphi assessment: Expert opinion, forecasting, and group process. | publisher = The Rand Corporation | ___location = Santa Monica CA | id = R-1283-PR | date = 1974 | url =https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0786878 }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Brown T | title = An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting | publisher = The Rand Corporation | ___location = Santa Monica CA | id = R-944-ARPA | date = 1972 | url = https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0777061 }}</ref><ref>{{cite book |title=The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications |url=http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ |year=1975 | veditors = Linstone HA, Turoff M |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080520015240/http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ |___location=Reading, Mass. |publisher=Addison-Wesley |isbn=978-0-201-04294-8 |archive-date=2008-05-20 |url-status=dead}}</ref> The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called '''mini-Delphi'''. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, [[prediction markets]].<ref name="Green_2008" />
Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines.<ref name="Taylor2020"/> It is used for such purposes in many health-related fields, including clinical medicine, public health, and research.<ref name="Taylor2020"/><ref name=Moher2010/>
Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.<ref name="rw2001">{{cite book | vauthors = Rowe G, Wright G | author-link2 = George Wright (psychologist) | date = 2001 | chapter = Expert Opinions in Forecasting. Role of the Delphi Technique. | veditors = Armstrong | title = Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook of Researchers and Practitioners | series = International Series in Operations Research & Management Science | volume = 30 | pages = 125–144 | ___location = Boston | publisher = Kluwer Academic Publishers | doi = 10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_7 | isbn = 978-0-7923-7401-5 | chapter-url = https://www3.nd.edu/~busiforc/handouts/Other%20Articles/expertopinions.pdf }}</ref> The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a [[facilitator]] or change agent<ref>{{Cite journal | vauthors = McLaughlin MW |date=1990 |title=The Rand Change Agent Study Revisited: Macro Perspectives and Micro Realities |jstor =1176973 |journal=Educational Researcher |volume=19 |issue=9 |pages=11–16 |doi=10.2307/1176973 |issn=0013-189X}}</ref> provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stop criterion (e.g., number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results), and the [[mean]] or [[median]] scores of the final rounds determine the results.<ref name="rw1999">{{cite journal | vauthors = Rowe G, Wright G | title = The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. | journal = International Journal of Forecasting | date = October 1999 | volume = 15 | issue = 4 | pages = 353–375 | doi = 10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7 }}</ref>
| |||