Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 06:29, 16 January 2023

Revision as of 02:26, 10 May 2023

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==Reason for development==

[[image:Typhoon Nabi (Jolina) JTWC's Tracking Chart (2005-09-05 1800Z).gif|thumb|350 px|ATCF image of Nabi's (2005) previous track, forecast track, along with tropical storm, storm, and hurricane-force wind radii depicted, from 18z on September 5]]

The need for a more modernized method for forecasting tropical cyclones had become apparent by the mid-1980s. At that time Department of Defense was using acetate, grease pencils, and disparate computer programs to forecast tropical cyclones.<ref name="ATCF1"/> The ATCF software was developed by the [[Naval Research Laboratory]] for the [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] (JTWC) in [[Monterey, California]] beginning in 1986,<ref name="ATCF2">{{cite journal|journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|author=Sampson, Charles R|author2=Schrader, Ann J|title=The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (Version 3.2)|pages=1231–1240|date=June 2000|volume=81|number=6|doi=10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1231:tatcfs>2.3.co;2|bibcode = 2000BAMS...81.1231S |doi-access=free}}</ref> and used since 1988.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Sampson |first1=Charles R. |last2=Schrader |first2=Ann J. |date=2000 |title=The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (Version 3.2) |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/26215160 |journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |volume=81 |issue=6 |pages=1231–1240 |doi=10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1231:TATCFS>2.3.CO;2 |jstor=26215160 |bibcode=2000BAMS...81.1231S |s2cid=122126725 |issn=0003-0007}}</ref> During 19901990s the system was adapted by the [[National Hurricane Center]] (NHC) for use at the NHC, [[National Centers for Environmental Prediction]] and the [[Central Pacific Hurricane Center]].<ref name="ATCF2"/><ref name="NHC 2">{{cite journal|author18=Tribble, Ahsha N|author1=Rappaport, Edward N|author2=Franklin, James L|author3=Avila, Lixion A|author4=Baig, Stephen R|author5=Beven II, John L|author6=Blake, Eric S|author7=Burr, Christopher A|author8=Jiing, Jiann-Gwo|author9=Juckins, Christopher A|author10=Knabb, Richard D|author11=Landsea, Christopher W|date=April 2009|author12=Mainelli, Michelle|author13=Mayfield, Max|author14=McAdie, Colin J|volume=24|issue=2|author15=Pasch, Richard J|author16=Sisko, Christopher|page=409|author17=Stewart, Stacy R|bibcode=2009WtFor..24..395R|title=Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center|journal=Weather and Forecasting|doi=10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1|citeseerx=10.1.1.207.4667|s2cid=14845745 }}</ref> This provided the NHC with a multitasking software environment which allowed them to improve efficiency and cut the time required to make a forecast by 25% or 1 hour.<ref name="NHC 2"/> ATCF was originally developed for use within [[DOS]], before later being adapted to Unix and Linux.<ref name="ATCF2"/>

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<ref name="ATCF3">{{cite web|url=http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/|title=Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project|author=Jonathan Vigh|date=2013|publisher=University Center for Atmospheric Research|access-date=2013-08-29|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140809223642/http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/|archive-date=2014-08-09|url-status=dead}}</ref>

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==System identification==

Systems within ATCF are identified with the basin prefix (AL – North Atlantic Ocean, CP – Central North Pacific Ocean, EP – North-East Pacific Ocean, IO – North Indian Ocean, SH – Southern Hemisphere, SL – South Atlantic Ocean, WP – North-West Pacific Ocean) and then followed by two digit number between 01 and 49 for active tropical cyclones,<ref name="Navy">{{cite web|url=http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/database/new/abrdeck.html|title=Best Track/Objective Aid/Wind Radii Format|date=2010-06-08|access-date=2014-06-20|author=[[United States Naval Research Laboratory]]–[[Monterey, California|Monterey]], Marine Meteorology Division|publisher=[[United States Navy]]}}</ref> which becomes incremented with each new system, and then the year associated with the system (e.g. EP202015 for [[Hurricane Patricia]]). Numbers from 50 through 79 after the basin acronym are used internally by the basin's respective Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers and [[Regional Specialized Meteorological Center]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/spc_proj/ihc/action-items.pdf|page=14|date=2007|access-date=2014-05-20|title=61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Action Items|author=Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology|publisher=Internet Archive Wayback Machine|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071129132837/http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/spc_proj/ihc/action-items.pdf|archive-date=November 29, 2007}}</ref> Numbers in the 80s are used for training purposes and can be reused. Numbers in the 90s are used for areas of interest,<ref name="ATCF Readme">{{cite web|author=Michael J. Brennan, [[National Hurricane Center]]|url=http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/README|title=Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) Data Files / Text Files|publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|date=2013-05-18}}</ref> sometimes referred to as [[Invest (meteorology)|invests]] or areas of disturbed weather, and are also reused within any particular year. Their status is listed the following ways within the associated data file: