Software development effort estimation: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 21:57, 28 January 2023

Revision as of 17:16, 21 May 2023

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Typically, effort estimates are over-optimistic and there is a strong over-confidence in their accuracy. The mean effort overrun seems to be about 30% and not decreasing over time. For a review of effort estimation error surveys, see.<ref>{{cite book

| author = Molokken, K. Jorgensen, M.

| title = 2003 International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering, 2003. ISESE 2003. Proceedings

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| chapter = A review of software surveys on software effort estimation

| s2cid = 15471986

}}</ref>. However, the measurement of estimation error is problematic, see [[#Assessing the accuracy of estimates|Assessing the accuracy of estimates]].

The strong overconfidence in the accuracy of the effort estimates is illustrated by the finding that, on average, if a software professional is 90% confident or “almost sure” to include the actual effort in a minimum-maximum interval, the observed frequency of including the actual effort is only 60-70%.<ref>{{cite journal

| author = Jørgensen, M. Teigen, K.H. Ribu, K.