Climate Change Science Program: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 00:07, 13 March 2022

Revision as of 03:34, 28 May 2023

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==The products==

The primary outputs from the CCSP were its strategic plan and 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP), five of which were released on January 16, 2009, the last business day of the Bush Administration.<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php Climate Change Science Program] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070819232331/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php |date=2007-08-19 }} 2009. Information on Synthesis and Assessment Products</ref> The CCSP Strategic Plan of 2003<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/default.htm U.S. Climate Change Science Program] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070215085829/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/default.htm |date=2007-02-15 }}, 2003. Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Washington, DC. See also [http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease24jul2003.htm Press release of 24 July 2003] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070203080618/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease24jul2003.htm |date=3 February 2007 }}</ref> defined five goals:

# Extend knowledge of the Earth’sEarth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed changes (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Observations and causes of climate change|Observations and causes of climate change]]),

# Improve understanding of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’sEarth's climate and related systems (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Changes in the atmosphere|Changes in the atmosphere]])

# Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’sEarth's climate and environmental systems may change in the future (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Climate projections|Climate projections]])

# Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed systems to climate and associated global changes (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Impacts and adaptation|Impacts and adaptation]])

# Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change (see [[Climate Change Science Program#Using information to manage risks|Using information to manage risks]])

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====Attribution of the causes of observed climate change (SAP 1.3)====

NOAA released ''Re-Analyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for attribution of causes of observed change''<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-3/default.php CCSP, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090704102959/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-3/default.php |date=2009-07-04 }} Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change. Randall Dole, Martin Hoerling, and Siegfried Schubert (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 156 pp.</ref> in December 2008. According to the report, from 1951 to 2006 the yearly average temperature for North America increased by 1.6° Fahrenheit, with virtually all of the warmingsince 1970. During this period, the average temperature has warmed approximately 3.6&nbsp;°F over Alaska, the Yukon Territories, Alberta, and Saskatchewan, but no significant warming occurred in the southern United States or eastern Canada. More than half of the warming of North America is likely (more than 66 percent chance) to have resulted from human activity.

There is less evidence that precipitation is changing. The report found no significant trend in North American precipitation since 1951, although there have been substantial changes from year to year and even decade to decade. Moreover, it is unlikely that a fundamental change has occurred in either how often or where severe droughts have occurred over the continental United States during the past half-century. Nevertheless, drought impacts have likely become more severe in recent decades. It is likely that the impacts have been more severe because the recent droughts have lasted a few years, and because warmer temperatures have created stresses in plants, which make them more vulnerable.

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==The organization==

The CCSP was known as US Global Change Research Program until 2002, as authorized by the [[Global Change Research Act of 1990]]. The Bush Administration changed its name to Climate Change Science Program as part of its U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative. The Administration envisioned "a nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems.". President Bush reestablished priorities for climate change research to focus on scientific information that can be developed within 2 to 5 years to assist evaluation of strategies to address global change risks.<ref>[https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010611-2.html Transcript of 11 June 2001 Presidential Rose Garden speech], White House web site</ref> One the CCSP's cornerstones was the creation of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAPs)<ref>[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php CCSP Information on Synthesis and Assessment Products web page] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070819232331/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php |date=2007-08-19 }}</ref> to provide information to help policymakers and the public make better decisions.

===Participants===

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A 2007 NRC review<ref>[http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11934 Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results, 2007]</ref> was more critical. "Discovery science and understanding of the climate system are proceeding well, but use of that knowledge to support decision making and to manage risks and opportunities of climate change is proceeding slowly." The NRC was particularly critical of the program's failure to engage stakeholders or advance scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change on human well-being. Looking to the future of the program, a 2008 NRC report<ref>[http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12595 Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change]</ref> put forward a set of research recommendations very similar to that embodied in the CCSP Strategic Plan revision of 2008.

The Climate Change Scientific Program was occasionally criticized for the alleged suppression of scientific information. In March 2005, [[Rick S. Piltz]] resigned from CCSP charging political interference with scientific reports: "I believe ...that the administration …... has acted to impede forthright communication of the state of climate science and its implications for society." Piltz charged that the Bush Administration had suppressed the previous [[National Assessment on Climate Change]], by systematically deleting references to the report from government scientific documents.<ref>[http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?articleId=9884 Lowball Warming] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110127024047/http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?articleId=9884 |date=2011-01-27 }} Chris Mooney, ''American Prospect'', June 20, 2005</ref> Piltz later complained about political tinkering with the timing of [[Climate Change Science Program#Effects on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (SAP 4.6)|SAP 4.6]],<ref name="USAT1"/> and suppression of sea level rise mapping studies associated with [[Climate Change Science Program#Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise (SAP 4.1)|SAP 4.1]].<ref>[http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/index.php/csw/details/rising_sea_rising_trouble_for_mid-atlantic/ Feds: Climate change to cause 'irreversible' health risks], Rick Piltz and Anne Polansky, ''Climate Science Watch'', June 10, 2009</ref>

==See also==