Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 23:11, 24 June 2023

Revision as of 23:12, 24 June 2023

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[[File:Ernesto2006modelspread.png|thumb|right|250pxupright=1.35|Significant track errors still occur on occasion, as seen in this [[Hurricane Ernesto (2006)|Ernesto (2006)]] early forecast. The [[National Hurricane Center|NHC]] official forecast is light blue, while the storm's actual track is the white line over [[Florida]].]]<!--image stacked below trend-map (same width) -->

A '''tropical cyclone forecast model''' is a computer program that uses [[meteorology|meteorological]] data to [[weather forecasting|forecast]] aspects of the future state of [[tropical cyclone]]s. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic.<ref name="NHCmodel"/> Dynamical models utilize powerful [[supercomputer]]s with sophisticated [[mathematical model]]ing software and meteorological data to [[numerical weather prediction|calculate future weather conditions]]. [[Statistical model]]s forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as [[personal computer]]s. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: [[tropical cyclone track forecasting|track]], intensity, [[storm surge]], and [[tropical cyclone rainfall climatology|rainfall]]. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem.