Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 23:12, 24 June 2023

Revision as of 23:13, 24 June 2023

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==Statistical guidance==

[[File:Isabel2003rcliper.jpg|thumb|rightupright=1.2|r-CLIPER for [[Hurricane Isabel]] (2003)]]

The first statistical guidance used by the [[National Hurricane Center]] was the Hurricane Analog Technique (HURRAN), which was available in 1969. It used the newly developed [[HURDAT|North Atlantic tropical cyclone database]] to find storms with similar tracks. It then shifted their tracks through the storm's current path, and used ___location, direction and speed of motion, and the date to find suitable analogs. The method did well with storms south of the [[25th parallel north|25th parallel]] which had not yet turned northward, but poorly with systems near or after recurvature.<ref name="models">{{cite book|pages=288–292|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6gFiunmKWWAC&pg=PA297|title=Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation|author1=Chan, Johnny C. L. |author2=Jeffrey D. Kepert |name-list-style=amp |year=2010|publisher=World Scientific|isbn=978-981-4293-47-1|access-date=2011-02-24}}</ref> Since 1972, the [[Climatology and Persistence]] (CLIPER) statistical model has been used to help generate tropical cyclone track forecasts. In the era of skillful dynamical forecasts, CLIPER is now being used as the baseline to show model and forecaster skill.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/Statistical_Knaff.pdf|pages=80–81|title=Statistical, 5-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived from Climatology and Persistence|volume=18|date=February 2003|access-date=2011-02-25|journal=Weather and Forecasting|doi=10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<0080:SDTCIF>2.0.CO;2|issn=1520-0434|last1=Knaff|first1=John A.|last2=Demaria|first2=Mark|last3=Sampson|first3=Charles R.|last4=Gross|first4=James M.|bibcode = 2003WtFor..18...80K }}</ref> The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) has been used since 1979 for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. It uses climatology and persistence to predict future intensity, including the current [[Julian day]], current cyclone intensity, the cyclone's intensity 12&nbsp;hours ago, the storm's initial latitude and longitude, as well as its zonal (east-west) and meridional (north-south) components of motion.<ref name="models"/>