Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 23:15, 24 June 2023

Revision as of 23:16, 24 June 2023

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==Consensus methods==

[[File:WRF rita spread2.jpg|thumb|260pxupright=1.3|''Top'': WRF model simulation of Hurricane Rita tracks. ''Bottom'': The spread of NHC multi-model ensemble forecast.]]

Using a consensus of forecast models reduces forecast error.<ref name="TBK">{{cite web|author=Kimberlain, Todd|url=http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/TropicalTalk.ppt|title=Tropical cyclone motion and intensity talk|date=June 2007|access-date=2007-07-21|publisher=[[Hydrometeorological Prediction Center]]}}</ref> Trackwise, the GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the GFDL, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NOGAPS, and GFS models. The version of the GUNA corrected for model biases is known as the CGUN. The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model. The version of the TCON corrected for model biases is known as the TCCN. A lagged average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus. The version of the TVCN corrected for model biases is the TVCC consensus.<ref name="NHCmodel"/>