Software development effort estimation: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 07:55, 7 August 2023

Revision as of 10:32, 16 August 2023

Line 25:

}}</ref> However, the measurement of estimation error is problematic, see [[#Assessing the accuracy of estimates|Assessing the accuracy of estimates]].

The strong overconfidence in the accuracy of the effort estimates is illustrated by the finding that, on average, if a software professional is 90% confident or "almost sure" to include the actual effort in a minimum-maximum interval, the observed frequency of including the actual effort is only 60-70%.<ref>{{cite journal

| author = JørgensenJorgensen, M. Teigen, K.H. Ribu, K.

| title = Better sure than safe? Over-confidence in judgement based software development effort prediction intervals

| doi=10.1016/S0164-1212(02)00160-7

Line 34:

| pages=79–93}}</ref>

Currently the term "effort estimate" is used to denote as different concepts such as most likely use of effort (modal value), the effort that corresponds to a probability of 50% of not exceeding (median), the planned effort, the budgeted effort or the effort used to propose a bid or price to the client. This is believed to be unfortunate, because communication problems may occur and because the concepts serve different goals.<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Edwards | first1 = J.S. MooresMoors | year = 1994 | title = A conflict between the use of estimating and planning tools in the management of information systems | journal = [[European Journal of Information Systems]] | volume = 3 | issue = 2| pages = 139–147 | doi=10.1057/ejis.1994.14| s2cid = 62582672 }}</ref><ref>Goodwin, P. (1998). Enhancing judgmental sales forecasting: The role of laboratory research. Forecasting with judgment. G. Wright and P. Goodwin. New York, John Wiley & Sons: 91-112. Hi</ref>

==History==