Numerical weather prediction: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 11:52, 11 March 2023

Revision as of 11:21, 17 August 2023

Line 6:

'''Numerical weather prediction''' ('''NWP''') uses [[mathematical model]]s of the atmosphere and oceans to [[weather forecasting|predict the weather]] based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of [[computer simulation]] in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from [[radiosonde]]s, [[weather satellites]] and other observing systems as inputs.

Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting [[climate change]]. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in [[Tropical cyclone track forecasting|tropical cyclone track]] and [[air quality]] forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as [[wildfire]]s.

Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful [[supercomputer]]s in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the [[forecast skill]] of numerical weather models extends to only about six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as [[model output statistics]] (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.