Delphi method: Difference between revisions

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==Accuracy==

Today the Delphi method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to [[drug abuse]].<ref>{{cite book | vauthors = Jillson IA | chapter = II.B.3. The National Drug-Abuse Policy Delphi: Progress Report and Findings to Date | veditors = Turoff M, Linstone HA | title = The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications | date = 2002 | chapter-url = http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3b3.html | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120206170836/http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3b3.html | archive-date = 6 JuneFebruary 2012 }}</ref>

Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There have been many cases when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself.{{Citation needed|date=July 2010}} It must also be realized that in areas such as science and technology forecasting, the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected.