Delphi method: Difference between revisions

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Accuracy: removed redundant sentence (if the method's goal is to predict accurately, then it's inability to do so isn't a specific weakness, but rather the result of other weaknesses, which is the focus of this section)
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Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There have been many cases when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself.{{Citation needed|date=July 2010}} It must also be realized that in areas such as science and technology forecasting, the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected.
 
AAn particularimportant weaknesschallenge offor the Delphi method is thatensuring futuresufficiently developmentsknowledgeable are not always predicted correctly by consensus of experts. This shortcoming concerning the issue of ignorance is importantpanelists. If panelists are misinformed about a topic, the use of Delphi may only add confidence to their ignorance.<ref name = "Green_2008">{{cite journal | vauthors = Green KC, Armstrong JS, Graefe A | title = Methods to elicit forecasts from groups: Delphi and prediction markets compared. | journal = Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting | date = June 2008 | volume = 8 | pages = 17–20 | doi = 10.2139/ssrn.1153124 | url = https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1168&context=marketing_papers }}</ref>
 
One of the initial problems of the method was its inability to make complex forecasts with multiple factors. Potential future outcomes were usually considered as if they had no effect on each other. Later on, several extensions to the Delphi method were developed to address this problem, such as [[cross impact analysis]], that takes into consideration the possibility that the occurrence of one event may change probabilities of other events covered in the survey. Still the Delphi method can be used most successfully in forecasting single scalar indicators.