Solar power forecasting: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 21:03, 5 January 2024

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The high resolution required for accurate nowcast techniques require high resolution data input including ground imagery, as well as fast data acquisition form irradiance sensors and fast processing speeds.

The actual nowcast is thanthen frequently enhanced by e.g. [[Statistical technique|Statisticalstatistical techniques]]. In the case of nowcasting, these techniques are usually based on [[time series]] processing of measurement data, including [[Surface weather observation|meteorological observations]] and power output measurements from a solar power facility. What then follows is the creation of a [[Training, validation, and test sets|training dataset]] to tune the parameters of a model, before evaluation of model performance against a separate testing dataset. This class of techniques includes the use of any kind of statistical approach, such as [[Autoregressive–moving-average model|autoregressive moving averages]] (ARMA, ARIMA, etc.), as well as machine learning techniques such as [[Artificial neural network|neural networks]], [[support vector machine]]s (etc.)<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Sanjari|first1=M.J.|last2=Gooi|first2=H.B.|date=2016|title=Probabilistic Forecast of PV Power Generation based on Higher-order Markov Chain|journal=IEEE Transactions on Power Systems|volume=32|issue=4|pages=2942–2952|doi=10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2616902|s2cid=43911568 }}</ref>.

An important element of nowcasting solar power are ground based sky observations and basically all intra-day forecasts.<ref>{{Cite journal|date=2011-11-01|title=Intra-hour forecasting with a total sky imager at the UC San Diego solar energy testbed|url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X11002982|journal=Solar Energy|language=en|volume=85|issue=11|pages=2881–2893|doi=10.1016/j.solener.2011.08.025|issn=0038-092X|last1=Chow |first1=Chi Wai |last2=Urquhart |first2=Bryan |last3=Lave |first3=Matthew |last4=Dominguez |first4=Anthony |last5=Kleissl |first5=Jan |last6=Shields |first6=Janet |last7=Washom |first7=Byron }}</ref>